If the price just sits, you can wait longer, into Monday, but if the bids start changing the direction close back towards the price where you sold then cancel your bids and repurchase what you sold so that you aren't caught chasing the ball above where you sold.
So at the current rate this Sunday evening (PDT) of $5.28 and possibly creeping back up, the strategy recommendation is to cancel the remaining open bids and to buy back the remaining bitcoins needed to fully restore the position to where it was at before the Weekend Dip strategy was employed. If the strategy was followed this past weekend, then conditions were favorable for a weekend dip. Selling on Wednesday evening (PDT) would have been at the BTC/USD price of around $5.60. Then following the strategy there would have been a bid paced at 5% less, at $5.32. That bid would have been hit and a quarter of the bitcoins sold would have been bought back already. And then to now get back to the original market position requires buying at market the remaining three-quarters, which would be at $5.28. So to summarize, by following the weekend strategy the result was with no change in position (as the entire position was repurchased), a gain of about 4% (after subtracting exchange fees) was achieved. |
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I asked the MtGox CEO, and he said Paxum is mainly used for withdrawals, not deposits.
So it should be affecting prices up, not down, if at all.
Anything that causes it to be harder to move cash in or out of the Bitcoin exchanges is a negative which puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. Knowing the volume that the exchanges send and receive using Paxum would be helpful in trying to come up with an estimate of how much of an impact losing Paxum will be but none share this info so estimating the impact is just speculation. Paxum's footprint is growing huge and now includes many countries which are the destination for remittance payments so the potential that Paxum had was huge though. There still is the possibility of individuals using Paxum for exchanging bitcoins online, person-to-person, but having the ability to go from an exchange directly to Paxum for EFT withdawal to a bank was certainly something that will be missed. The reason there isn't much move in the price as a response is likely that the use of Paxum was something just starting to gain traction so the numbers aren't that significant as a percent of total transaction volume. But if you were using (and relying on) Paxum already -- this development will definitely hurt. |
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Five days ago I sent $415.37 to your Liberty Reserve account U2998291 (BtX) from my Liberty Reserve account U0236956 (spondylus).
I requested an exchange to Western Union funds to be sent to me in Ecuador.
Nothing has happened. I have received no e-mail from you or any notice about the transaction. I have e-mailed you without reply.
When will you make the exchange?
You are probably doing a trade with BitcoinExchange? - http://www.bitcoinexchange.cc/index.html - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6223.msg722802#msg722802I'm not sure if that service monitors this BitcoinTalk forum but it does offer an AIM communication method for support (as well as e-mail), if you weren't aware. |
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Using a nickname during sign-up (or adding it later) is useful then so you don't need to know the exact URL or wallet identifier to access from another computer. e..g. if your nickname to the account is "satoshi" you would access your wallet at https://blockchain.info/wallet/satoshiDon't forget though -- blockchain.info doesn't store the password so there is no password recovery. As is stated on the site: 'To avoid any possible monetary loss due to a forgotten password it is recommended you make a paper backup of your wallet's private keys." |
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If there aren't enough donated coins by 5/1/2012, this project will be cancelled and all donated coins will be refunded to donators.
Are you saying you'll return the funds to the address which sent them? That's a problem if it came from an eWallet like a person sending from a Mt. Gox account. |
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to my old MT Gox address about 2 hours ago. I don't see them showing up in my Gox account.
The address you get for depositing BTC to Mt. Gox is permanent regardless of whether or not you've generated another address. Most exchanges offer this as miners wanted to obtain a static address for having deposits go automatically to their Mt. Gox accounts. So your BTC deposit transaction to Mt. Gox would normally show in your balance after six confirmations. |
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The Weekend Dip strategy that had seen gains that were better than just maintaining a buy and hold position for much of 2011 is detailed below. The reason this pattern might exist is because bitcoin exchanges are open 24/7 but bank transfers are only occurring on business days. Add in the timezone difference between the U.S. and Japan (where Mt. Gox operates) and you get an even narrower window where new funds arrive at Mt. Gox.
When Bitcionica arrived, leverage made this weekend dip less likely to repeat as traders had the ability to move without waiting for cash transfers to clear. Even so, there seems to be a recurring pattern. Here's one way to try to trade it:
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From a long position, evaluate late Wednesday evening (U.S.) / Thursday (morning Europe, afternoon east). If the 7-day high is below the previous 7-day high, then sell some. If that 7-day high is above the previous (i.e., week-over-week is trending up), then this is not a good weekend to try to play the weekend dip strategy.
So if you sold, then wait and watch. Put in some buy orders -- e.g., buy back a quarter of what was sold at 5% below where the bitcoins were sold at, another quarter at 10% below, another quarter at 20% and the last quarter at 33% below.
Wait and watch.
Around Saturday evening is generally the low point. Watch closely after that. If the price just sits, you can wait longer, into Monday, but if the bids start changing the direction close back towards the price where you sold then cancel your bids and repurchase what you sold so that you aren't caught chasing the ball above where you sold.
If a big drop happened on Friday then bank wires from the West would reach Mt. Gox by Sunday evening (U.S) so try to be back in your position fully by then. If Friday was flat, then if there are significant bank wires from the West they won't be heading to Mt. Gox until Monday evening (U.S.) so you can be more patient, as there could be a drop on Sunday night/Monday as well. When there is a big drop, you want to be back in your position before those wires hit.
Now if instead the price rises from where you sold, check your emotions. If there is no reasonable explanation for it to jump 10%, for example, it might just drop back down over the weekend to where you can buy back near even. Or it might continue zooming up 33%. It may be weeks before you re-enter your position anywhere near where you sold, or you may not end up with a chance to enter at the level you sold at. But when trading the weekend dip, your gains over time will more than compensate for the hit taken when the rare occurrance that price had a big run even though conditions were ripe for a normal weekend dip (using the 7-day high test explained above).
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p.s., I'm not a financial advisor nor necessarily an active trader either. You don't want to blindly follow a strategy like this -- I'm just explaining a strategy that seemed to work at certain points in history.
That said, this strategy kicks off only by selling a long position -- so if you will beat yourself up for missing that 40% rise that happened over the weekend, don't follow this strategy.
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Is this anything a trusted member is interested in? I would need this today (feb 7th)
What repayment method would be used? A prudent lender would likely only want to consider a non-reversible repayment method (e.g., Mt. Gox code/USD). Given that would be an acceptable term of the loan then this might be an attractive deal for a lender. This is even better than Payday Lender rates which of over 400% interest (APR) with the loss of risk due to default being low (since if the $200 isn't repaid there is $240+ worth of collateral that could be easily liquidated). Even if the BTC/USD drops by 25% (e.g., from about $5.50 down to about just over $4) the worst that would happen is the lender goes just 7 days without $200. For comparison though, pawn shops require collateral at a higher ratio than this though and even the collateral they accept isn't exposed to the price volatility that bitcoin sees. |
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What policy should be set by the store and why? On the face of it, it seems like a good idea to simply say 'no sale' to the customer. I am interested to know if any other options can be reasonably considered that leaves both the store and the customer happy.
Bitcoin transactions propagate globally within a few seconds so if the transaction truly reached the network the store would know about it. I suppose if the mobile device is having connectivity issues, the transaction would be committed but not received by the store. Without any method to cancel the transaction -- yes that could be a problem. I suppose the store would be able to refund the customer when the transaction eventually makes it through. The pos terminal temporarily loses internet connection and thus cannot confirm the transaction.
Any web access can verify the transaction in the blockchain. I suppose a Twillo-based voice app could be built to serve status even when there is no web access. The customer has a bad read on the QR code and has accidentally sent it to the wrong address (unlikely, but possible).
That would be bad if it really happens. Though the code would have to be close and the customer wouldn't know the target address in advance. |
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Patrick Murk (@VirtuallyLaw) points out parts of Facebook's S-1 (registration with the SEC) related to its currency that appear under the Risk Factors section. Of particular interest to Bitcoiners might be: "Depending on how our Payments product evolves, we may be subject to a variety of laws and regulations in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere, including those governing money transmission, gift cards and other prepaid access instruments, electronic funds transfers, anti-money laundering, counter-terrorist financing, gambling, banking and lending, and import and export restrictions'. "To increase flexibility in how our use of Payments may evolve and to mitigate regulatory uncertainty, we have applied for certain money transmitter licenses and expect to apply for additional money transmitter licenses in the United States, [...]" [See page 34 of the Feb 2012 Digital Gold Currency magazine: - http://www.dgcmagazine.com/PDF/52-Digital-Gold-Currency-Mag-February-2012.pdf ] And related: - http://kevinflood.blogspot.com/2012/02/what-facebooks-s-1-filing-reveals-about.html |
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