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781  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 26, 2016, 11:01:25 PM
I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.
782  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: dash will reach 0.02 like Etherum..? on: March 26, 2016, 09:17:07 PM
Dash reached a high of 0.028 XBT in May 2014 and a lower high of 0.025 XBT in March 2015 so Dash reaching 0.02 is not that big a deal. The real question is will Dash break 0.025 XBT? https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_dash. For those that wish to compare Dash with Monero the DASH/XMR chart is relevant. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash The historical trading range for Dash has been between 4 and 6.5 XMR with a couple of tops up to 17.215 XMR and 15.2 XMR. As in the case with Bitcoin the second top is the lower of the two.

On the upside I would watch 0.025 XBT for Dash. On the downside I would watch 4 XMR for Dash.

Edit: Added Dash/XMR chart.
783  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 26, 2016, 08:51:27 PM
...

The only issue I have with the whole lending scenario is COUNTER-PARTY-RISK. I guess if you don't believe Polo will ever get hacked or close down. Then you're good.

The other side of the coin is usually what I pay attention to when looking at any exchange or "other party".

There is also the risk that the short seller's equity does not cover the closed position is a fast rising market. Take a look at DASH/XMR currently the most liquid of the XMR markets to see what I mean. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash

Edit: A Monero short that uses Dash as collateral could get really scary very fast. By the way the reverse, a Dash short that uses Monero as collateral, can also get really scary very fast.
784  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 23, 2016, 11:29:53 PM
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In the US, at least, that is most likely incorrect.  Crypto doesn't have to convert to USD to be taxable.  For example, the rules are very clear that mining bitcoin counts as income when the coins are received.  And if you purchase something for crypto, that is also a taxable vent.

And interest on lending, whether margin or otherwise. is income.  So interest from margin lending crypto is most likely is income, you pay taxes on the value received as received, and your basis on the monero received is equal to that value.

It is also the same in Canada. Another example is let us say one sells Bitcoin for Monero, then this would trigger a capital gain or loss on the Bitcoin based on the fair market value of the Bitcoin in Canadian Dollars at the time of the sale.
785  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: March 23, 2016, 06:09:29 PM
Minergate shows  Network hashrate 27.01 MH/s, divided by two it gives hashrate 13.51 shown by my bitmonerod Smiley

That is due to them not fully updating the hashrate calculation to account for the change in block time. They also show the Effective txs median, bytes as 20000 the pre fork value when it should be 60000.
786  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 22, 2016, 10:27:18 PM
The recent v0.9.3.0-release has provided tagged support for Win32 on x86/AMD64 processors. This is significant because there are still many Win32 computers out there. They have have a 64bit processor in many cases but if they were originally sold with 4GM or less of RAM chances are they are running 32bit Windows. It is one of the results of the behind the scene database work over the last year. Other important features of this release is the support for GNU/Linux on ARM 7 processors and also support for GNU/Linux on 32bit x86/AMD64 processors.

https://getmonero.org/downloads/
787  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 21, 2016, 11:31:04 PM
Development of the Monero GUI has been fully funded and is proceeding as we speak. There is of course no guarantee that one may be able to purchase Monero at the current prices after it is released.
788  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [POLL] Are Altcoins Legal? on: March 20, 2016, 10:41:53 PM
It depends on the alt-coin, and the jurisdiction. The poll with two options is flawed.
789  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 20, 2016, 02:58:32 AM
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Won't scale. I explained why if you had clicked my quote to read the rest of my post.
There can be many central ledger providers so this is not an issue. Once one makes it easy to fund and return funds it is easy for there to be many different providers who could specialize in publishers in different jurisdictions. This means that an aggregator can choose to only deal with a limited number of jurisdictions. We must keep in mind that Google has been doing this with adsense advertising for well over a decade. The typical market value of a page view with decent content is well under 0.01 USD. Facebook by the way does far worse than the market average under 0.001 USD per page view.  
 
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The merchants receiving the payouts do fall under AML/KYC. And any MSB has to register with FinCEN. Also criminals will structure their microtransactions across multiple anonymous user accounts to side-step limits, thus your point really does not apply.

The aggregator not the merchants could be an MSB and would be a "Seller of Prepaid Access" so the following applies: https://www.fincen.gov/news_room/nr/html/20111102.html It would likely fall into the closed loop exception if the merchants / publishers are vetted as legit. The limit is this case is 2000 USD in loads per day and I am talking of 10 USD per load.


...
Yes. Credit cards can be incentivize massive fraud especially if they can pay themselves as merchants.

But the scaling problem of centralized ledgers is just as onerous an issue too.

Yes but as I mentioned above this can be addressed by having many centralized ledgers.
 

...
Now you understand why a centralized ledger (and a centralized aggregator of funds) will never scale nor work in practice due to FinCEN requirements to avoid criminal structuring.

The  due diligence is done on the payment end. If someone tries to use this to launder money it would be easily apparent by looking at the click patterns on the front website much like click fraud is currently detected. So if there is something clearly amiss the aggregator can detect this, and file one rather than millions of suspicious activity reports.

By the way I have been involved with web based advertising as a publisher for well over twelve years so I am familiar with this business. What I am suggesting simply replaces the advertising component with a pay per page view component for a comparable yield  to the publisher.

Edit: Closed loop prepaid access can also work well for in person transactions since it only has to deal with one jurisdiction making compliance very simple even if registration is required. This is the critical advantage of separating this from the actual coin protocol. A very good example why this kind of separation works very well is Bitcoin ATMs since the operator only has to deal with one regulator namely that where the Bitcoin ATM is located.
790  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 19, 2016, 11:46:11 PM
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The answer in the case of bitfinex seems vague. Here is a discussion from a year ago

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2h2tfe/question_for_bitfinex_can_you_please_explain_in/

I don't know if there is anything more recent, but I gather (don't rely on this necessarily) that Bitfinex has said they will cover the losses, but only up to their ability to pay, or perhaps the amount in an insurance fund. It is not really clear.

Interesting. This creates an additional exchange risk that could impact those that do not lend for margin trading.
791  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 19, 2016, 11:32:11 PM
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I believe it has never happened, yet.

The actual terms are somewhat more complex, but no question the lender is taking some risk.

Also, even if hypothetically the loan were 100% safe (though I'm not really sure how that would be possible), funds on an exchange are not.
...

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/howitworks

Quote
3. Margin Funding

Our peer-to-peer margin funding feature goes hand in hand with the margin trading feature described above. If you are not a trader and prefer steadier returns, this feature may be for you.

Bitfinex allows you, using your Deposit Wallet, to provide margin funding to other traders in the form of bitcoins, litecoins, ethers, and/or US dollars. You can enter offers with your own chosen terms (daily rate of return, duration, and amount). When an offer is taken by a trader, the money in your wallet will be used to buy or sell bitcoins, litecoins, and/or ethers, a margin funding contract will be opened. When the position closes the funds used in that position are returned to your wallet. Fees to the funding providers are paid daily at approximately 1:30 UTC.

You are not exposed to exchange risk when providing margin funding with Bitfinex. The exchange risk is taken on by the trader, and in the case that the position loses money, the trader will cover the loss using funds in his trading wallet.



... my question here is who covers the part of the loss that is not covered by the traders equity? This can happen in a fast moving market where a margin call results in a loss in excess of the traders equity.
792  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: BCN or RDD for long term investment? on: March 19, 2016, 11:08:55 PM
Anyone considering BCN should take a look at the following thread: Blowing the lid off the CryptoNote/Bytecoin scam (with the exception of Monero)
793  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 19, 2016, 10:30:17 PM
Replacing Cryptonote rings with RingCT value hiding is probably incompatible with microtransactions-at-scale in all current block chain designs because (including Monero) they don't remain decentralized at-scale, but not that was Monero's focus any way:

Although sub-penny microtransactions are not economically feasible with credit cards nor current crypto-currencies because the fees are too high, these systems could in theory lower costs enough to lower fees to a percentage of the value of the transaction (assuming transaction values are not hidden with homomorphic encryption, because in which case the oligarchy centralization inherent in these system has an incentive to raise to fees to what the market will bear cutting out lower valued transactions).

...

Micro transactions is one thing that can be easily provided by a traditional centralized ledger provider that is funded by Monero. The first thing to understand here is that micro transactions by their very nature fall way below any AML/KNC regulatory requirements. Someone funding an account with say 10 USD, in order to pay for say 10,000 page views at 0.001 USD per page view is not the concern of financial regulators. This issue with micro transactions with the current fiat payment systems is not the actual micro transactions themselves but how do you fund the account in the first place, especially if anonymity is desired and this is done across international boundaries? As for the micro transaction provider themselves there is no reasonable reason for them to keep track of who sent 0.001 USD to whom. If they do not have a strict privacy policy then the market can find another provider. Filing millions of suspicious transaction reports for amounts under 0.01 USD each is not a valid reason and could easily land the provider who does this into serious legal trouble with the agency that was the target of such a denial of service attack.
794  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 18, 2016, 03:19:46 AM
It's a travesty that Coinmarketcap would not categorize ETH as significantly premined.What are they smoking?

I am actually more interested in how FinCEN will deal with the Ethereum premine given what happened with Ripple.
795  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Industry Venture Capitalists Shift Focus to Ethereum on: March 16, 2016, 08:30:38 PM
One thing venture capital demands is the possibility of growth. Take that away and venture capital will flee. The fundamental problem Bitcoin faces here is that stagnation is hard coded into the consensus code of the protocol in the form of the fixed blocksize limit. The venture capitalists are starting to realize this hence the interest in Ethereum, where the perception at this time is that Ethereum does not have this limitation. Contrary to the efficient market theory there can be a significant temporary divergence between market perception and the basic fundamentals. The market does over time align with the fundamentals; however during that time an investor who has bought based on the fundamentals must be prepared to hold onto a position that according to the market shows a very significant paper loss.

Now as for Litecoin it has a very similar stagnation is hard coded into the consensus code of the protocol in the form of the fixed blocksize limit. The only difference is that because of the difference in block time it has effectively 4x the limit. My take is that if venture capital feels burned  with BItcoin over this issue it is not going to move to another coin with that very same issue.
796  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 15, 2016, 09:19:18 PM
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The trouble with CDN is that (despite the recent bounce ) it is on a downward trajectory against USD.  Holding it is a losing proposition. I bought some more BTC the other day just to take advantage of what I guessed to be a CDN high mark.  So far so good.  That BTC is easily and quickly  tradable for XMR or USD for  very reasonable fees, compared to CDN in the legacy banking system.  Days and days to transfer with many times higher fees.  WTF.  Might as well courier bullion.  CDN limit buy BTC right at market, then after a couple dollar rise (typically within a few hours) to more than cover fees, into USD where it can more safely wait for an entry point that I like.  Covoluted, but I dislike losing 1% overnight holding CDN just because oil dropped 50 cents.

You mean CAD. For someone in Canada I would argue that holding CAD can make sense over USD, especially if the idea is to hedge a significant XMR position. My take is that the over the medium to long term the fundamentals of the Canadian economy are stronger than those of the US economy, the Canadian banking system has historically been safer than the US banking system and last but not least CAD does not have the loss of reserve currency status risks associated with USD. When holding gold was made illegal in the United States in the 1930's many Americans kept their gold in Canada. The social and political risks can also be lower in Canada that in the United States.

As for XBT when it takes a day to get one confirmation from the Bitcoin network, as has recently been the case, the legacy fiat banking system actually becomes competitive,

Ultimately this is about one's comfort level. My comfort level is stronger with the smaller currencies, XMR and CAD than with the larger currencies XBT and USD.  

Edit: I am not interested in day trading here but rather in holding over the medium to long term.
797  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 15, 2016, 08:02:10 PM
Are most holders here under the belief that monero will reward them more than holding bitcoin?

Edit to add: 2 years from now, who has a fatter wallet, 100 bitcoins or 10,000 monero?

As a long term holder my feeling is yes. First as has been pointed out before 100 XBT will get one well over 30,000 XMR at market. So 30,000 rather than 10,000 is the more relevant number.

The problem I have with Bitcoin is that the reality is very different from the original idea of a fungible digital currency that anyone can use to pay anyone without the need of an intermediary or "bank". This is primarily due to the fixed blocksize limit which currently restricts the number of transactions to about three transaction per second. There is simply no opportunity for growth in Bitcoin since stagnation is hard coded into the protocol via the consensus code . This has led the a bear market in Bitcoin now over 27 months old. I see the downside in Bitcoin to be very real with little or no upside.

Monero on the other hand has an adaptive blocksize limit. This means that there is no three transactions per second limit hard coded in the consensus code and consequently Moenro has a very good upside potential. Yes there is downside to Monero also; however I would consider it comparable or somewhat less than that of Bitcoin.

The risk to reward ratio becomes an upside many orders of magnitude higher combined with a comparable or somewhat less downside. My current position is a mix of Monero and Canadian Dollars with very small Bitcoin and Namecoin positions. The Canadian Dollars provide the necessary liquidity.

Appropriate disclaimers are needed here. This should not be considered investment advice. Investing in crypto currencies involves extreme high risk and the possibility of loosing the entire amount invested. It should only be undertaken after doing one's own independent research and obtaining appropriate independent professional advice.
798  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: Ethereum being added to Bitfinex on Monday on: March 14, 2016, 11:13:22 PM
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This exactly.  And why shouldn't they add it and make a profit?  They're not in the exchange business for charity, right?  And like it or not ETH is where the money is at right now.  Don't know if it's going to last but you can't deny that lots of people have made lots of money on it.

The profit opportunity could just as well in be people cashing out. There is a deja vu here if Ethereum is close to or at a top.
799  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: Ethereum being added to Bitfinex on Monday on: March 14, 2016, 10:52:27 PM
Here is the Cryptsy Dash chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/cryptsy/drkbtc take a look at the three day chart and pay close attention to the all time high. of 0.0274 XBT.  Cryptsy was the main market for Dash at the time. One possible theory is that a whale offers to be a market maker on BitFinex and uses that opportunity to unload a large amount of coin.

It also provides a direct path to fiat making it attractive for those who want out after a big run. Again Dash had a big run just before the BitFinex listing, very much like Ethereum.

Edit: Dash crashed all the way down to 0.00215 or over 92% on Cryptsy after the Bitfinex listing. Just saying there is the possibility that there is some blood mixed in with the ether here.
800  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: All crypto with an IPO/ICO is trash - no exceptions. Just launch fairly. on: March 14, 2016, 07:14:01 PM
...
 
Also, since you seem to be so knowledgeable about these things, when FinCEN and SEC guidance conflict - which takes precedence?   What if SEC guidance doesn't apply, or they haven't released any?
 


Where is the conflict between FinCEN and SEC guidance?
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