SELL at $772.47
If everyone is open to a restart, I'd be OK with it. Though it is nice to have (finally) gotten ahead from allllll the HODLing.
Only other person in the top 10 I've seen active/around is Rynin.
I been HODLING with Rynin and them its my only chance  |
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Imo counting the bear market is no use to us, it is a combination of some sort but very ambiguous. Not all bear markets have to finish at the extreme low in terms of EW which makes it even more difficult. I think the best we can do is use bold clues within the local bull market to determine if we are ready for the next great impulse.
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Assuming we are in an impulse rising from the last abc correction and without having the best bearings on the greater count this impulse analysis is probably the best bet for now. expect shallow corrections.  Following this chain of logic, a local top is in. we could range for some time now. As a guess, we are in a larger wave IV. Wave III was an extension. returning to wave iv territory would mean 4600 abouts. I cant rule out the chance of an ABC in place of a 1-2-3.... Patience folks  |
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Good to see some counts coming out! What you should do is get a bearing on the big picture. Start with daily or even weekly. Then, when something looks good and holds the rules, then move to 4hr. Make sure it still looks good and everything still counts. Move to smaller time frames as you confirm everything continues to hold. If you find that an impulse you labeled on a higher time frame doesn't count out on lower tf's, you need to make adjustments. What I already saw in your first post was a good start, right up until the e that makes a lower low. Triangles always have converging trend lines and only the top can decline, and only the bottom can rise. If both decline or rise, it is a diagonal and should be labeled with numbers. Diagonals are triangles, but happen in impulsive locations (1, 5, A and C) but are not corrective themselves so should be numbered.
BTW, you really should have made this self moderated.Keep practicing and I'll definitely try to offer help anywhere I can.  THIS. |
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A painfully good start to an EW discussion |
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Assuming we are in an impulse rising from the last abc correction and without having the best bearings on the greater count this impulse analysis is probably the best bet for now. expect shallow corrections. |
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These are clues that we are approaching a local top, foreboding a mere 200-300 yuan swing.  Quite some detour but we managed to revisit wave IV. sideways or continuation from here.  |
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LOL i never look at this thread how lucky am I to see my own quality analysis. best of luck trading everyone  |
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These are clues that we are approaching a local top, foreboding a mere 200-300 yuan swing. |
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What's your target area chess?
... your guess is better than mine. |
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Time for a new count?
(If going by Bitfinex, at least. OKC still a hair below the previous high.)
A new intermediate count although we are still somewhere in a larger impulse. it could be an expanded IV, but I wouldnt count on anything right now. very very bullish indeed. Sup, Mr. Ace. Time to go up I suppose and then some. Glad you've made your statement so we can all go long together. not sure what you mean... Im not going long here, waiting patiently for form and a good entry. longs could get burned from here. |
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Time for a new count?
(If going by Bitfinex, at least. OKC still a hair below the previous high.)
A new intermediate count although we are still somewhere in a larger impulse. it could be an expanded IV, but I wouldnt count on anything right now. very very bullish indeed. |
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Hi chessnut,
do you stilll see us heading back down to 3680?
The triangle IV setup has plenty of time to prove its self. a sharp move down from this point and the potential of this Ending Diagonal is confirmed.  With the presence of this Ending Diagonal I am coming to think that it was a v of (v) wave, making good sense on this tf and a failure fifth on chinese exchanges plausible. This means that instead of being in wave c of a triangle we could be only at the beginning of the wave IV I have been expecting, and this means that yet another visit to 3500 (520) is quite possible before continuation.   |
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Hi chessnut,
do you stilll see us heading back down to 3680?
The triangle IV setup has plenty of time to prove its self. a sharp move down from this point and the potential of this Ending Diagonal is confirmed. With the presence of this Ending Diagonal I am coming to think that it was a v of (v) wave, making good sense on this tf and a failure fifth on chinese exchanges plausible. This means that instead of being in wave c of a triangle we could be only at the beginning of the wave IV I have been expecting, and this means that yet another visit to 3500 (520) is quite possible before continuation. |
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See? Everyday is a learning day in EW BTC land
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do you see this kind of waves :  or another one? that is a typical impulse, I was looking at an Ending diagonal. So.. nice call, you got your dip. Feel like going up now?  EDs retrace to their base and lower.... tgt remains around 3650 |
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Hi chessnut,
do you stilll see us heading back down to 3680?
The triangle IV setup has plenty of time to prove its self. a sharp move down from this point and the potential of this Ending Diagonal is confirmed. |
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Chessnut, I have got a question (I saw kind of an answer first page): Where did you learn EW analysis ? I went through it there http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis, but this is not at all enough material to understand it. I finished reading their stuff, and I am more lost than everything else as I could hardly identify waves pattern on BTC chart (well, I could say I identified one, but that's very subjective, that's the whole point of me being lost). I am really curious about it and would like to know more, do you have any books/website that could help me on that?? thank you Go to http://www.elliottwave.com/I eventually bought the latest EW principle from here, its a good book. I learned it from all over the place. Be philosophical about it yourself. |
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It looks like the triangle is a good bet for China though the West may make more of a zig-zag.
Was about 4700 what you had in mind for "4k +"? That seems like the next target and the minimum reasonable top for this whole rally (about $715).
The west was playing catch u the whole time... wave B over extended.... we still call it a triangle, but a running triangle. it will look funny, so I just watch chinese charts. I would be expecting a fifth wave, it could go apeshit, it could fail. 4700 is not a significant number to me. |
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Perfect my brother, so after that we will have a small rocket launch to 4000+ CNY.
What do you see after that in medium term brother ?
Thank you as always my friend.
if it is a triangle, yes. |
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