Price looks ready to move out of the trading range. Phase A selling climax and automatic reaction scared most of the weak hands from the market. Phase B provided good opportunities to collect in the lower $200s and sell the high $200s. Phase C testing was unable to break support below $220, a clear indication of no supply. Phase D is a reaction to phase C--a clean, strong rally with very little selling. Phase E is the markup, yet to be seen. Last points of supply to build long positions were $220 and $275. Medium term point & figure target $400-$500. Exhibit A Exhibit B Any time range for phase E bassclef ? Wyckoff trading ranges tell a story of gradually changing supply and demand forces, from the selling climax where supply has overwhelmed the market, to the testing in phase C where supply has been successfully absorbed by the informed interests and demand begins to take control. They can only predict a general timeframe of what is probable. We may zoom right past $315 in the next few days or bounce around below it awhile longer before building the needed energy to push over. If the second scenario happens bears may conspire for one final push down, which won't likely get very far. Either way the needed energy will be found by bulls aggressively buying any corrective dips or everyone fomo buying as it drifts up past $300 with no significant selling pressure. You either need to have brass balls or be fresh out of the Babypips School for Retail Traders to short this. The probable direction is clear. |
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Why does everybody here become Nerdchills just because the Bitcoin price changed today +1.6% ?
Euro/Usd rallied today as well by 1.35%.. But in Forex you have the opportunity to trade with up to 200x leverage... Which makes a 1% move 200% gains...
The sad thing is you can't really trade Bitcoin with 20x leverage because the liquidity is so shity.
You were here this morning educating us on how Bitcoin cannot move up. Now you wonder why it's going up. Good luck with those CFDs and 200x leverage. |
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But we will be back to 230 by Friday.
I see the bears are shorting again here at 300. It is basically a last stand for them. Any appreciable buying now will eviscerate the remaining 10,666 shorts on finex. Place your bets! If the bears don't understand or care to learn about the context of the market compared to its prior actions--that is, how the last six months has been coiling the spring of this rally--they deserve to lose money. |
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I think the price will start off initially high, then rapidly crash as people dump for profit. If the devs have given themselves big shares and they are short of money then they might also dump along with the investors. After the Bitshares IPO it went to the number 2 coin in price, then crashed heavily and is number 8 today. Ethereum might follow a similar path.
Sounds like a premined mess. It will pump and dump just like every altcoin, ever, siphoning money from noobs. Count me out. |
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Price looks ready to move out of the trading range. Phase A selling climax and automatic reaction scared most of the weak hands from the market. Phase B provided good opportunities to collect in the lower $200s and sell the high $200s. Phase C testing was unable to break support below $220, a clear indication of no supply. Phase D is a reaction to phase C--a clean, strong rally with very little selling. Phase E is the markup, yet to be seen. Last points of supply to build long positions were $220 and $275. Medium term point & figure target $400-$500. Exhibit AExhibit B |
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Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):
Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th! It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history... Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)? I think the market is in a different place technically... we really didn't get a high volume capitulation before the run to $600 last summer, so there was still excess supply waiting in the wings to bring the price down. Contrast that to the record high volume in January during the selloff to $166--that event alone was enough to make the market bullish for some time. And if you've been watching the tape, volume trailed off dramatically in May/June with multiple failed tests to the lows. If we could have sold off, it would have been then. That's enough to convince me that there aren't enough sellers to bring the price down very far, even if we fail to break $315 definitively. |
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Still not technically turned up... Still time for heroic bear dump to save us from the summer pump !
Sellers have left the market. Dumps have been ineffective since May. If you're short here I'm sorry for ya. |
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What's the next goal, guys? $340? I feel $340 between now and mid August is a realistic goal. We might (might? what the fuck is wrong with me!?) will be indefinitely going over $300 soon enough.
Once the trend gets going beyond $315, it could run pretty fast to $400 as it will be major advertising to the greater investing community that Bitcoin is back in play. My crystal ball says somewhere around $500 before we get a big correction. |
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He probably means the gap with no buy orders shown by the yellow arrow. It was a nice evenly spaced run of buy orders, then that gap suddenly appeared with walls above and below it. The whole buy side looks artificial now, but the market is heavily manipulated by whales sometimes.
Well everyone gave them the opportunity to load up in January when someone shorted 30k coins to force capitulation. Everyone sold sold sold and shorted for months after that and the troll army and bears were convinced double digits were right around the corner. In actuality Whales and whoever else wanted a piece of Bitcoin could sit at the bottom and accumulate with open arms around $200. Now that they own most of the floating supply they can basically control the market. It is no accident nor conspiracy that the market gave them this opportunity. Fortunately it's in their interest to go UP  |
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Not the rally you want to be shorting, IMO. Exhibit AExhibit B |
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Double top matters in progressive uptrend.
"With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the Double Top Reversal, a significant uptrend of several months should be in place."
this. Also agreed. A double top of such magnitude would only take on importance if there was an equally large uptrend behind it. The pattern (along with head & shoulders tops, triple tops, etc) implies distribution where quality of share ownership becomes poor when strong hands sell their shares to starry-eyed buyers (future weak hands) near the market top. This transfer causes the bear market. One only sees this type of distribution after a long bull market. After a long bear market, the strong hands are busy collecting to distribute again at higher prices. It's much more likely that's what's happening here--accumulation and not distribution. |
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Guys don't waste your time in TV chat. Most there are losers. The less a chart shows the more you get. Been warning all you for days! (Damn, I start to sound like TPTB  ) I banned myself from all chats and trollboxes long ago. My trading stash is much better for it |
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Watch those shakeouts boys, they always come when you least expect them. The more nervous they make you, the more effective they are. Looks like this one is good to buy.
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I've heard a lot of rumors about the LTC ponzi and very few facts. Honestly I believe it was an excuse to pump LTC and push BTC over resistance.
What I do know, as I participated in the pump and watched the orderbooks closely, is that someone had a really fast bot that provided buy support right at market. When the orders were sold into, they were immediately replaced to keep the price as high as possible. These were not the actions of amateur speculators, but of a sophisticated buying campaign by large operators across multiple exchanges to push the price up.
Once the price was to their target, the LTC that the bots had collected were dumped at market on each exchange, causing the initial crash. At the same time, thousands of BTC were market bought across multiple exchanges, pushing BTC over significant resistance and buying up most of the remaining supply standing in the way of a potential bull market. (The "creek" in Wyckoff terminology) Again, not the actions of amateur market-making.
I don't have enough evidence to make a definite conclusion, but considering what I know about market structure and how large operators tend to work in the market once they've cornered the supply, I tend to think there was something larger at play.
A conclusion one might draw is that these operators are interested in LTC. It's a fairly liquid market (compared to most altcoins) so you can extract a decent profit when volume picks up. It's traded at major exchanges and tracks BTC's ups and downs. Considering how successful the initial campaign was, they will probably pump it again.
Thanks for an informative post! I am worried about a second pump (or really a third one, if you could the 2013 pump). I'm guessing they won't do it for several months. There are some decent facts about the LTC ponzi - including a couple forum discussions of it on Chinese forums, a video of a man speaking on behalf of the scheme to investors (also in Chinese - there is a half-decent English translation of this), and block chain evidence of interest payouts. I'll have to look into those sources. Unfortunately good information is hard to come by about the alleged ponzi--I'm only speculating based on what I see in the market. As a trader I will take a LTC position if BTC continues to rally, though. Having traded through the 2013 bubble it makes sense to me. |
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I've heard a lot of rumors about the LTC ponzi and very few facts. Honestly I believe it was an excuse to pump LTC and push BTC over resistance.
What I do know, as I participated in the pump and watched the orderbooks closely, is that someone had a really fast bot that provided buy support right at market. When the orders were sold into, they were immediately replaced to keep the price as high as possible. These were not the actions of amateur speculators, but of a sophisticated buying campaign by large operators across multiple exchanges to push the price up.
Once the price was to their target, the LTC that the bots had collected were dumped at market on each exchange, causing the initial crash. At the same time, thousands of BTC were market bought across multiple exchanges, pushing BTC over significant resistance and buying up most of the remaining supply standing in the way of a potential bull market. (The "creek" in Wyckoff terminology) Again, not the actions of amateur market-making.
I don't have enough evidence to make a definite conclusion, but considering what I know about market structure and how large operators tend to work in the market once they've cornered the supply, I tend to think there was something larger at play.
A conclusion one might draw is that these operators are interested in LTC. It's a fairly liquid market (compared to most altcoins) so you can extract a decent profit when volume picks up. It's traded at major exchanges and tracks BTC's ups and downs. Considering how successful the initial campaign was, they will probably pump it again.
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I also think those calling for a bubble are only calling for trouble.
Who in their right mind thinks ANY business that sees the price fluctuate 10-20%+ in a day is going to want ANYTHING to do with btc? Plus with the losses a lot of people incur naturally when the bubble pops, it creates an overall NEGATIVE image and outlook for btc in general
I'm not calling for one, but a revisit of $500-$600 is certainly possible before the end of the year. Technically the market is ripe for a rise as most of the weak hands have sold off their positions and the quality of ownership is quite high. People forget how relatively few people are into Bitcoin right now, much less buying large amounts. Those buying at these prices are institutions, professionals, whales and traders looking to ride in their wake of accumulation, which creates a temporary shortage (aka rocket launch pad). They won't be selling until a % of the gains lost in the bear market are recaptured. Bubble territory would be far above the ATH, like $2000+. That will only happen if the bull market attracts a significant amount of money from the general investing public. Unfortunately this happened during November 2013 as (IMO) most of the rise past $800 was from the greedy public for a number of reasons You cannot stop people from being greedy and fearful, it is a trait of human nature and markets will always be full of them. Like it or not Bitcoin will see some wild swings until its market becomes larger and more mature. |
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A Greece deal has reached.
Selling is the best option for now
IMF warned that Greece needs deeper debt relief. Not over yet. |
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The setup didn't pan out as I had hoped but I'm still holding the position. I think LTC will probably follow BTC during the upcoming bull market (as it did in 2013) so it will pay to have strategic positions in each. One should be cautious playing with LTC as it's a smaller market and therefore more volatile and prone to slippage.
The recent rally in BTC is fundamentally different than those that came before it in that it jumped the resistance between $260-80 very decisively and quickly on strong volume, with a large jump in price in a very short time (compare the length of the big 3d green candle to previous ones).
After a long, excruciating trading range where price has held resilience and various informed interests have taken position, this is a huge sign of strength and an indication that the market is ready to move up and begin to correct and recapture some of the lost gains from the year long bear market.
Well, you might still be right about LTC, though I'm on the sidelines there until I can see something I can hook into. Can't really get a feel which way it's going right now. Regarding BTC, I'm bullish. What keeps me up at night is whether the initial LTC run to $8 was just the first leg in a larger trend or not. If that happens and the bull market gets roaring I wouldn't be surprised to see LTC mirroring some of BTC's early gains. ----- Just remember that it's supply and demand that controls larger market cycles and not much else. Once the available supply runs low and begins to stall the downtrend, it is a signal for savvy investors to accumulate quietly, keeping the price low. Once it's gone, the price moves up easily as there's nothing to stand in the way (it has been absorbed). On Wall Street there are hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies and other trading syndicates that actively plan and meticulously carry out campaigns to accumulate and distribute stock. They will not inform the general investing public of their plans until the bull market is well underway and they are looking to sell. Then the stock is "hot" and all of their useful idiot friends in the media will gladly help them find buyers. The fat cats in charge of large swaths of wealth did not get rich by trading a $10,000 Forex starter account--they are aligned with syndicates and deploy said wealth very strategic ways in order to corner markets and move supply and demand in their favor. Who knows who has been actively accumulating Bitcoin, but they are there. Bullwhale and his fat sack of coins he likes padding the orderbooks with is just one example. If they have invested time and money into this venture, it's feasible to think they would plan to sell at higher prices than $300. |
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I'm currently trading this. My guess is up. It's a classic ascending triangle trend continuation, where buyers aggressively outbid each other to get their limit bids filled. This results in rising bottoms. Eventually it breaks up when there's no lower prices to be had and the resulting market orders push up the price through resistance.
Or not The setup didn't pan out as I had hoped but I'm still holding the position. I think LTC will probably follow BTC during the upcoming bull market (as it did in 2013) so it will pay to have strategic positions in each. One should be cautious playing with LTC as it's a smaller market and therefore more volatile and prone to slippage. The recent rally in BTC is fundamentally different than those that came before it in that it jumped the resistance between $260-80 very decisively and quickly on strong volume, with a large jump in price in a very short time (compare the length of the big 3d green candle to previous ones). After a long, excruciating trading range where price has held resilience and various informed interests have taken position, this is a huge sign of strength and an indication that the market is ready to move up and begin to correct and recapture some of the lost gains from the year long bear market. |
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Good setup on LTC/USD while BTC stalls a bit.
Watch for a break in either direction up or down, if not for a long run, for a relatively big percentage scalp or day-trade.
The pumper is not done distributing his coins. And who knows, he might even pump it alongside BTC when it starts to run again (but be careful don't put too much on chikun anyway, and definitely don't chase it, a shitcoin is still a shitcoin)
I'm currently trading this. My guess is up. It's a classic ascending triangle trend continuation, where buyers aggressively outbid each other to get their limit bids filled. This results in rising bottoms. Eventually it breaks up when there's no lower prices to be had and the resulting market orders push up the price through resistance. |
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