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801  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 17, 2014, 01:40:04 AM
There will be a huge speculative sell soon... holders will sell their coins to buy later when the price drops

You speak with such authority, clearly you have seen the future.  I have sold everything.  Tell me, at what price should I buy?
802  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? on: January 17, 2014, 01:36:06 AM
Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

How is somebody risking their money to support an investment "manipulation"?  Or is it "manipulation" only because it goes against your opinion?

Yeah, you're right, I'm just trying to make it more entertaining by alluding to some kind of market conspiracy. But really, with such low volume and the Jan 31 deadline looming, it doesn't make sense to me why buyers keep jumping in to prop up the price almost immediately every time it dips.

Perhaps their available information, or their interpretation is different than yours.  Most people strive to act rationally most of the time, especially with money.  Follow your curiosity and you might just figure out why they are willing to put so much on the line.
803  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? on: January 17, 2014, 01:33:23 AM
My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong?  What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.

Oh, let's see, it took me 3 clicks to find this gem dated Aug. 14 2013:

Quote from: Tzupy
I believe we had capitulation (of the previous bubble period) ending around July 5th.
Capitulation in the current bubble period has yet to come, and then bears will rejoice

Tzupy isn't on trial here.  Even if he was, hewas new then and I have seen his analysis mature a bit.  Anyway, downward movement is possible from this point.  We would like to discuss how far such a move might extend if you don't mind.
804  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 17, 2014, 01:30:24 AM
Here is an obscenely bullish desktop wallpaper (for usage as pr0n substitute), concentrating at this multiple times a day for 2 minutes each time will release endorphins and convert every bear into a bull after long enough exposure. I have made it 1024*768 for old laptops, I can make higher resolutions too.  Grin


this is cool, but can you make a negative of that? I prefer a dark background. Thanks.

Open in gimp (http://www.gimp.org), right click image, colors->invert.  Save image.  Thanks.
805  Economy / Speculation / Re: I don't get the price movement (or lack thereof).... on: January 17, 2014, 01:27:19 AM
All this good news recently (Sacramento Kings, ATM's in Toronto, Overstock, Zynga, etc etc), and no upwards price movement. What are the reasons?  No new money coming in?  Equally as powerful bad news, thus neutralizing the good? I just don't understand...before, one piece of news like those above and the price would be sent....for lack of a better word.....to the moon.

Thoughts?

The market wants to work out some bearishness due to price action over the past months.  When sentiment is like this, good news won't do anything but provide support.  Good news only fuels rallies when the bears have had their fill.

Never trade on news without also guaging market sentiment.
806  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? on: January 17, 2014, 01:22:53 AM
My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong?  What were your calls in September?

If it does play out, he's been right to call bull trap for weeks.
807  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? on: January 17, 2014, 01:21:04 AM
My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

Wave C is indeed the primary bearish case to consider.  I would love to see us make it that low, but if we do go down, I will start buying anything below 650ish.
808  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? on: January 17, 2014, 01:18:57 AM
Every time it seems like it will fall, it doesn't, because someone steps in and places huge buy walls. Manipulation on the exchanges is really obvious.

How is somebody risking their money to support an investment "manipulation"?  Or is it "manipulation" only because it goes against your opinion?
809  Economy / Speculation / Re: Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far? on: January 17, 2014, 01:17:15 AM
What if I don't know what the fuck will happen, but I am willing to entertain both bearish and bullish analysis?  Am I allowed to participate, or is this only for bears that are on the same caliber as the $10k in a month crowd?

Seriously, you sold everything?  I sure hope you are right.
810  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin in 5 years on: January 16, 2014, 11:14:37 PM
Seems like bitcoin banking is too dependent on Internet connection and electricity.
I hope everything 'll be alright with them in 5 years  Wink

Hey look, it still applies to the alternatives.
811  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Name something you've actually BOUGHT with bitcoin on: January 16, 2014, 10:55:23 PM
Food, coffee, tea, clothing, electronics, cables, video games, and mining hardware.  Since the O.co announcement, I have bought: a desk chair, a kitchen aid stand mixer, a breville oven, and a floor cleaning robot.
812  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: January 16, 2014, 10:46:45 PM
Hi all, after following the recent spike and subsequent crash of Bitcoin on the news I decided to look into cryptocoins and was brought here. Joined yesterday and am really liking this thread.

I am no trader and cannot provide any technical analysis but IMO, BTC will correct further in the coming months, by how much and when I am clueless. I tend to look at Bitcoin as a digital precious metal. Back in August 2011, gold peaked at $1900 before falling to $1500. At the time, many investors thought that the bottom was reached and that the price would rise above $2000 in a matter of months. Over two years have passed and gold is still in a bear market with prices under $1200 and it will very likely correct further before we see a reverse in the current trend. I personally wouldn't be surprised if BTC goes down to the $500-600 range, possibly even $400 but it may take some time. Just my 2 cents.



The only reason gold has been a bear market the last couple of years is because it has been and still is HEAVILY manipulated to prop up the dollar.

You can not manipulate a market for so long. It is just an excuse for the failed predictions of the goldbugs.

People get uncomfortable with the idea that we are hurtling through space on a tiny rock and we only have the illusion of control.  It is easier to make up stories about how some powerful entity is controlling things than to accept the fact that in the grand scheme of things every single human and every single organization created by said humans, is at the mercy of the universe.
813  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2014, 06:06:10 PM
This flat market is losing me money with my bots left, right and center. They're buying at top and selling at bottom like a boss  Grin

Thank you.  My bots appreciate the extra volatility since they focus on stabilization rather than trend following.
814  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2014, 06:03:13 PM
More chart BS Smiley
This time for the Bulls

Huobi clearly shows a pennant, which suggests  a continuation of the uptrend once complete (in about 3 days)



Not a pennant IMO, based on a few things -- time frame, absence of flag pole, the fact that the first downward wave of the formation broke below previous resistance (i.e. the bottom of the flag pole). The fact that the sharp move that typically precedes a pennant is contained within this formation is another indication that this is a longer term consolidation pattern.

I see a symmetrical triangle, which admittedly is more bullish than the current formations on western exchanges. I would expect a breakout earlier than 3 days based on the wave structure and proximity to the close of the triangle. Much longer and it won't be very reliable. But I don't see a bullish bias at all.

But what what if China has been trolling us all along, only to leave the western traders caught with their shorts on.
815  Economy / Speculation / Re: Vague similarities... on: January 16, 2014, 10:18:39 AM
Overall we look much more bullish this time around.  However, we clearly still have some bearishness to work through somehow.
816  Economy / Speculation / Re: The age of KARHU begins....seek ye refuge in alms to the KARHU! on: January 16, 2014, 09:11:32 AM
We're waiting Karhu.  Are you going to pull the trigger or not?
817  Economy / Speculation / Re: 820 is the new 130 (Stamp) on: January 15, 2014, 09:38:35 PM
I got around 7 grand on my tax refund last year, put it all in BTC. I won't get one this year since I have retired..... at age 29.

Did you retire because of your 7 grand investment in BTC?

Pretty much. I have since gone back to college and plan to start a business after. Something that would earn BTC, so I wont be fully retired for long. But I will never work for anyone besides myself again.


that's what i want, fuck you

Quit day trading then Tongue.

Buy and hold, unless you think you can beat 1000% per year gains.

I've bought and held since Nov 2013.... hasn't done me enough good to retire yet

Have some fucking patience then.  3 months is a very short time frame.
818  Economy / Speculation / Re: 820 is the new 130 (Stamp) on: January 15, 2014, 07:24:03 PM
I got around 7 grand on my tax refund last year, put it all in BTC. I won't get one this year since I have retired..... at age 29.

Did you retire because of your 7 grand investment in BTC?

Pretty much. I have since gone back to college and plan to start a business after. Something that would earn BTC, so I wont be fully retired for long. But I will never work for anyone besides myself again.


that's what i want, fuck you

Quit day trading then Tongue.

Buy and hold, unless you think you can beat 1000% per year gains.
819  Economy / Speculation / Re: The fiat experiment: Stopping time on: January 15, 2014, 07:12:41 PM
I don't see any reason for a complete fiat collapse anytime soon (barring complete mismanagement by the central banks or some "unknown unknown"). Though, I'm not exactly sure how nations without monetary sovereignty (Euro nations) will handle their public debt. The U.S.'s debt:GDP ratio has been higher than it is now (after WWII). Ideally, not all the benefits of economic growth go solely to the small, interest accruing class (those who received the investments or loans would have received greater benefit than the interest paid, else they wouldn't have taken the investment/loan). Public debt doesn't have to grow exponentially. It can be paid down, and/or inflated to be insignificant over decades. Debt has just grown exponentially recently because it could be (exponentially expanding economy and population growth). The problem of always needing economic growth to function is a feature (or bug?) of capitalism itself.

Do you really think that debt will not grow exponentially if they try to inflate it to be "insignificant"?  Why not take out a loan if the debt will be insignificant in the future?  Also, your assumption that the loan recipient benefits from the loan is certainly not true for all loans.  Businesses go belly up all the time and leave bad debts.  Students loans debt is at an all time high and most of the people I know who only have bachelors degrees are working in retail of food service, making minimum payments that should have their loans paid off about 1 week before they die.  Look at 2008.  How many of those loans were not paid back because the homes they were spent on lost half their value?  And what happened to the interest accruing class in 2008?  They got bailed out by their buddies while they were kicking people out of their houses, only to let the houses sit vacant or be torn down.

Capitalism is private ownership and private responsibility.  We don't have such a system in the US.  We have private ownership of profits and socialized losses.  Until the interest accruing class is forced to take responsibility for their mistakes, our debt problems can only grow.
820  Economy / Speculation / Re: I AM SHOTRING on: January 15, 2014, 07:03:14 PM
SODL and SHOTRING is the only way to go, at this point.  Have you guys seen the latest confirmed bad news out of China.  Sheesh!

I knew who posted this before even looking at the username.

Seriously, do you ever get tired of saying the same stuff you were saying in 2011?

It will continue to entertain him so long as so many users continue to have broken sarcasm detectors.

I initially thought it was sarcasm, but come on man...

It's literally every post, dating back weeks and months. If my sarcasm detector is broken it's because he overloaded it.

Yet he still gets responses treating his statements seriously.  As long as this continues to uncover the closet bears who actually think he could be serious, he will continue.  Making a joke out of the OMG China!!! shit we've had for two months straight is vastly preferable to the wailing of new traders every time an asian farted, IMO.
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