Neat;
Western Union: Hello David, could you please send us a private message that includes detailed information on why you suggest BitCoin to be examined? Tell us about your experience, we will be more than glad to help you.
Um, what do I say?
Tell them it is an option they should explore for international money transfer. Tell them it has the potential to save them millions of dollars compared to bank transmission and forex fees. Also, tell them to put ATMs in all their stores. |
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Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time?  Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices. Good luck.  |
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BTC can't solve remittances because there are unequal flows of money. If 10,000 btc get sent home to India, the rupee/btc exchange rate will plummet unless those bitcoins get sent elsewhere before they are sold.
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What it is this new attitude that btc is like a stock and only responds to news events? In the past years, btc would move plenty on its own and we didnt need news - we just used TA. Sometimes businesses and users just have a bunch of coins they need to unload to retrieve fiat or pay invoices. It is a transactional currency that is used for business and not just speculation, and even many of the speculators are following TA or their own needs and whims - not news.
It is the flock that is looking for fiat profits. These people don't truly understand the potential of bitcoin and are easily swayed by arguments based primarily on emotion (aka, news). Once this round is fully fleeced, we can move on to our next round of growth. |
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^ Negative commissions for market makers. I don't understand exactly how that will work, but it sounds innovative. Reminds me of the investor option at just-dice.com to bankroll the casino (and thus share in the profits).
Bitcoin seems to promote this idea of "equal-opportunity" between peers in a market-driven manner that I really like (just-dice.com investors, bitfinex lenders, BTC-china market makers).
This is known as maker-taker. http://www.marketswiki.com/mwiki/Maker-taker |
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In logarithms, $1000-$3200 takes half the time of a move from $1000 to $10000. $1000-$2000 takes 30% of the time. So expect to be in the $1000s for a while and then to more quickly move once we get past $5000.
My totally unprofessional market psychology bullshit assessment is that we're going to fight around $1000 for a while because there were a lot of people getting in around and above that nice round USD number and a lot of those people got their first real lesson in markets/panic/capitulation recently and a lot of them probably want to get the fuck out because bitcoin is still too risky for them. And because the powers that be stubbornly refuse to switch to the more psychology-friendly mBTC. Yep, that's totally it. Switch to mBTC and we'll hit $5 tomorrow. If only the man weren't keeping us down.  |
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Definately not overtake, but I suppose that this year the ratio BTC/LTC should double from 0,03 to 0,06 or so this year.
Do you really think that litecoin infrastructure and merchant growth can outpace bitcoin infrastructure and merchant growth? Which LTC companies are getting VC funding again? And which merchants are announcing adoption? My CPU mined LTC and I would love to see your prediction come true, but I have a hard time seeing the path that will get us there. |
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You're not allowed to withdraw contributions early from your Roth or you will pay a penalty, but you can take out gains at any time without penalty or even paying taxes on them. There's a form you have to fill out on your federal taxes so the only downside to redeeming gains is a bit of paperwork.
I think you have that backward. I thought you were allowed to withdraw contributions but not gains. You already paid taxes on the contributions. |
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So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.
I'll leave this here! Horizontal S/R levels https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.pngThe red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running. The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink. Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference. Edit: How do I resize that sombitch for readability?Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/ |
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Here are my points regarding the limitations of the trendline:
a) The inflation rate of Bitcoin
in 2012 -> around 40%
in 2013 -> around 13%
which is partly due to halfing of the block reward and partly due to the increase in the number of Bitcoins (which reduces the precentage)
This is definitely going to have some impact on the price, assuming the same trend for both these years, does not make sense to me.
b) The trend line is based on the least squares method. So, values furthest from the trend will be given the maximum weight. So, we would end up giving more weight to the bubble in 2011 than the recent price data.
I see A as particularly important. Algorithmically controlled release with declining inflation is a unique feature of bitcoin that hasn't been seen in other markets. |
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If we happen to be on wave B 3 outomes are possible:
We remain below ATH (better below 960 stamp price) and then we correct below previous low.
We match ATH then we correct to previous low.
We surpass ATH then we correct to or below previous low.
So if someone believes we are on wave B, cheaper prices will happen. But you have to be sure we are on wave B.
Of course, which is why I never short with leverage and I never sell more than a tiny % of my long term holdings. If I had no btc, I would be nervous. |
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Fairly new to bitfinex but a long time lurker  That's madness, it implies at least a 25 times gain in bitcoin price per year. Which year did it not exceed that? Past performance does not reflect future returns!! Even if bitcoin were to gain as high a market capitalisation as gold its price per coin would be about $120,000 a piece, realistically in the most optimistic example inn the next 5 years it could maybe make 10% of this at very most. This implies a fair price at the end of those 5 years of $12,000 now lets say it doubles that due to fluctuations which a trader could take advantage of that's $24,000. Lets just run the 25 time the current price (mtgox) $1000 is $25000. In other words this five year crazy optimist scenario already stretched to double the most optimistic price would have to happen in a year to have the trader come even close to breaking even. So when you stack assumptions on top of assumptions, it doesn't add up? That's pretty convincing. Besides, you are forgetting that most bitfinex positions are short term, so they only have to beat the interest rate for the duration of their trade. |
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Fairly new to bitfinex but a long time lurker That's madness, it implies at least a 25 times gain in bitcoin price per year. Which year did it not exceed that? |
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Bitfinex USD borrowing rates are skyrocketing, any views on what this means in terms of demand for bitcoins?
You must be new. A few weeks ago people were paying 0.9% per day. |
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Hi. I want a glass of red wine.
Well, it's 2pm on the last Sunday before I start the final semester of my masters degree. I've just moved into a new apartment and bought myself a corkscrew for this wine I've had for months. It seems like a good time to open a bottle and sort through all these boxes. In the mean time, I've got a small long position on bitfinex with a base of $890 just for kicks. This might well be a bull trap/B wave, but I think I can get at least a few more percent out of this move. But please don't trade on my speculation, do your own research. Edit: well, hot damn... That was a nice jump while I typed this. I sold out most and claimed the profits in BTC. Errrmmmm...what exactly is your definition of a ``long`` position? A buy with the intention to sell. The opposite of a short. I did not mean long term of that's what you are thinking. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp |
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Much of that volume is from a no fee exchange.
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But is the bitcoin price not news driven? Good news -> price goes up. Bad news -> price goes down. Maybe some technical analysis might be helpful for day trading, but in the long run? I don't know. On the other hand many people believe in this technical analysis. Therefore many trades act like this and therefore the price.
So my question is:
How helpful is a exploration only based on a chart line? I saw here many, many lines in charts which seemed to look good but most of them where wrong and of course some where right (if 100 people bet on a single number in roulette, some will hit the right number. But that does not make them to prophets).
I am not sure if this is trolling. Once I made a critical post in rpietila's thread and was deleted instantly.
People who know the news before it is published leave traces in the market. That is why TA is able to account for news. However, if you believe TA is simply lines on charts, that would explain why you think it is bunk. A successful technical analyst looks at many factors and indicators to determine the state of the market and general sentiment about the market. |
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Hi. I want a glass of red wine.
Well, it's 2pm on the last Sunday before I start the final semester of my masters degree. I've just moved into a new apartment and bought myself a corkscrew for this wine I've had for months. It seems like a good time to open a bottle and sort through all these boxes. In the mean time, I've got a small long position on bitfinex with a base of $890 just for kicks. This might well be a bull trap/B wave, but I think I can get at least a few more percent out of this move. But please don't trade on my speculation, do your own research. Edit: well, hot damn... That was a nice jump while I typed this. I sold out most and claimed the profits in BTC. |
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It depends on your timeframe and scale. If you are are trading a small portion of your position over a long time to preserve profits and gain from selloffs, incremental is the way to go. If you are taking large, short term positions to make profits in whatever asset you prefer to hold, then go with Livermore.
Different styles for different temperaments. It takes all kinds to make a market. Personally, I go the Livermore route for fun while my bot handles the incremental. Just never go short with leverage in this market unless you have nerves of steel.
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