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281  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is quantum computing threat to Bitcoin ? on: May 30, 2018, 02:08:21 PM
...
Traditional computing reaching its physical limit is actually one of the reasons why quantum computing is being heavily researched in the first place. Accordingly we can expect more and more funding being poored into R&D for quantum computing (and other approaches such as neuromorphic computing) as improving traditional architectures becomes less and less feasible.
...

I don´t necessarily disagree with this claim, but not everything that is heavily researched also produces the desired results.
The treatment of various lethal diseases is also heavily researched and still there are various diseases that can´t be cured
using current medicine. Maybe quantum computing will run into similar problems as the traditional computer architecture and
the situation won´t be much different in a few decades than it is now.

Besides, it is likely that even if quantum computers become a reality at some point in the future that cryptography will
have also improved.
282  Local / Deutsch (German) / Re: Wie kriegt das Finanzamt raus, wo und ob ich Krypto Gewinne habe? on: May 30, 2018, 01:55:18 PM
Wieviel Paranoiker sich hier tummeln, echt Opfer der StaatswerbungsGEZ.
Man teil dass ganze in 10 BTC Wallets auf, dann wandert man durch die BTC-Automatenlandschaft und- oder Verkauft aug Börsen in Kanada oder ...

Im Moment noch kein Problem

Du weißt schon, dass es in Deutschland mittlerweile keinen einzigen Bitcoin ATM mehr gibt?
Also ist jede ATM Nutzung schon mit erheblichem Reiseaufwand verbunden.

Auch der Verkauf über Börsen in Kanada bringt dich nicht wirklich weiter, da auch eine derartige
Auszahlung letztendlich auf deinem Bankkonto eingehen würde.
283  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: What is Smart Contract? Very Basic Understanding on: May 30, 2018, 01:45:38 PM
You have mentioned the "dispute" issue but didn't address it.

Contracts, in general, are a set of rules to follow. When everything goes well, everyone walks away happy. The trouble (and the real purpose of a contract) becomes relevant once there's a dispute. The big problem with smart contracts today is either foreseen or unforeseen conflicts. How can those be mediated?


This looks promising :

https://medium.com/kleros/kleros-a-decentralized-court-system-for-the-internet-abridged-1e415c04604a

This looks like another project where the founders mainly intend to enrich themselves.

Why are they already running a token sale when they have nothing to show apart from
a whitepaper, a Medium article and a small amount of code at Github?

A quote from the Medium article:
Quote
When the party decides to send the case to arbitration, the contract in plain English
(or the natural language chosen) and all relevant pieces of evidence are sent to Kleros secured by public key cryptography.

This doesn´t sound particularly decentralized to me.

Besides, I highly doubt that this is a good application of a decentralized system. Court systems
are handling huge amounts of highly sensitive information, not many people will be interested in providing
evidence to anonymous online jurors.

These guys should rather contribute to Bitcoin or one of the related projects (2nd-layer solutions, wallet
software...) instead of wasting time on a project like this that is never going to work. But then they probably
wouldn´t have the need to run a token sale...




284  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Question about LN routing at 1 Million TPS on: May 30, 2018, 01:21:55 PM
...
Netflix's business model is to borrow loads of money, then charge users less than their costs. They never made any profit on streaming; they're in huge, ever increasing debt.
...

I would agree with you if we were talking about Tesla (Tesla is borrowing a ton of money and is unprofitable).
However, Netflix is growing like crazy and is in a much better situation.

E.g. take a look at this article from last month:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/04/22/netflix-will-be-more-profitable-than-you-think.aspx

Quote
For the umpteenth time in recent memory, the streaming champ this week blew past earnings estimates...

Quote
The first-quarter report featured the usual blowout numbers as revenue surged 40.4% ...

Quote
However, the most impressive part of Netflix's earnings report was its rapidly improving profit margin.
Operating margin jumped to 12.1%, due in part to the timing of content spend, and management said
full-year operating margin would be 10%-11%, its best ever. While Netflix's earnings multiple is still
sky-high due to the stock's rapid growth, it's becoming clear that Netflix will be solidly profitable,
with double-digit margin that should continue to get wider.

I know that they are in debt, but this is mainly due to the expensive streaming contracts and licenses.
This is a misleading situation in my opinion for the following reason:
Let´s say Netflix produces a movie like "The Irishman", which costs 140M $. The costs are paid upfront,
but the income due to the movie will show up much later when they actually air the movie.

Netflix current strategy of heavy expansion and expensive productions may be a bit aggressive and fueled
by a huge amount of debt, but it still seems to be working so far.

Irrespective of this, the amount of debt doesn´t even look that high compared to the market capitalization of Netflix.

Companies like Tesla are much more likely to go down due to huge amounts of debt.


edit:
Actually I think that you are right on second thought.

The root cause of all these companies that
are "debt-fueled" (Tesla, Netflix...) is probably the fact that the whole economy is distorted due to the availability
of unprecedented amounts of liquidity at low interest rates.

In an economic environment where central banks couldn´t introduce liquidity to this extent (e.g. in an
economy that is based on sound money like Bitcoin) situations like this wouldn´t be possible.


285  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: KYC is bullshit on: May 30, 2018, 10:16:10 AM
...
I like the old school mentality man, I wish more people here were like you. People have always been focused on fiat, but it only becomes worse due to the massive influx of newbies only looking to bank on crypto. For them a profit is only profit if they end up with more fiat in the end....

I agree with this post wholeheartedly. It is sad to see that many newcomers  only get into Bitcoin, because they hope
to realize some fiat gains. It would be much better for everyone if more people joined the Bitcoin community
that actually care about the project as an alternative to the current central banking system.

Maybe a prolonged bear market will shake out the people, who only looked for easy gains and will
ultimately lead to a healthier Bitcoin community.

286  Other / Ivory Tower / Re: No Bitcoin has ever been mined. on: May 30, 2018, 10:09:29 AM
...Is this distinction significant? Well probably not for most users of Bitcoin, but if you are an investor, then I think it is....

Isn´t this just semantics? Of course you are right technically, but I don´t really see the downside
of keeping the current narrative even though it is not 100 % true. Mining is a process that is known to everyone
due to the mining of metals and other resources and therefore people can grasp this concept easily.
Besides, other terms that are used to describe the rewards for the miners are actually accurate (e.g. terms like
"block reward").


287  Other / Meta / Re: Forum ranks/positions/badges (What do those shiny coins under my name mean?) on: May 29, 2018, 12:34:10 PM
Did I miss something? shouldn't I have the "Sr. Member" rank with my 280 activity points Huh

You missed the introduction of the new merit system
(an additional requirement in order to rise
to a higher rank).

You can find all relevant information in this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2818350.0

288  Economy / Gambling / Re: Win Every sports bet you make, Every Time. With Arbitrage, you can't lose!! on: May 29, 2018, 11:35:19 AM
For people not believing this is possible and posting screenshots as proof:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting#Arbitrage_in_practice
the tl;dr part: the odds that make the bookies lose disappear VERY QUICKLY and sites may disable your account.

I read the Wikipedia article and one quote made me laugh out loud:

Quote
Bookmakers who encourage responsible gambling will close accounts where they see only large
losses, unaware that the arbitrage trader has made wins at other books.

I have a hard time believing this is true. I was a huge net depositor at a gambling company
back in the day and instead of closing my account due to large losses they instead showered
me with gifts and granted me a VIP manager. I think this is similar at most other sportbooks, too, because
large gamblers, who lose constantly are the best customers of any gambling company.

These companies only close accounts when the user himself wishes to self-exclude.
289  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Why are USA citizens not allowed to participate in ICO on: May 27, 2018, 04:13:49 PM
... The United States currently has no effective way to supervise ICO, so the United States currently does not allow people in their own countries to participate in ICO.

This is not true.

You are allowed to participate in an ICO even if you are based in the US.
However, an ICO is a form of a capital raise that falls under the supervision
of the SEC (Securities and Exchange commission). The problem is that most
ICOs are not registered with the SEC.

Obviously, it is easier for most projects to just exclude US investors, because this
frees them from the huge red tape and the enormous costs that are associated with
registering with the SEC.
290  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Is quantum computing threat to Bitcoin ? on: May 27, 2018, 10:08:35 AM
Yes this can be a huge threat to bitcoin and not only bitcoin but also to the whole crypto. The whole internet will be at stake if quantum computing comes. Actually the whole encryption procedure is at a threat.

I highly doubt that quantum computing will even become a problem during
our life time. The advances in terms of processing power of current computers
are already slowing down, because companies like Intel are already having problems
to keep up with Moore's law.

Besides, I read somewhere that a Bitcoin private key is so large that it would take more energy
than is produced by the sun in its lifetime to power a computer that would have
enough computing power to successfully crack it.

There are other threats that are a bigger concern to the security of Bitcoin than
quantum computing.
291  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Question about LN routing at 1 Million TPS on: May 27, 2018, 09:45:10 AM
so for many services the subscription model is much better both for merchant and consumer. Your specific examples for the vast majority of people work better as a monthly subscription service.
From merchant perspective, monthly subscription is good, yearly is better, decade is the best. Not sure about consumer perspective. Smiley I prefer pay as you go model myself.

Take a look at the success of companies like Netflix. They are not charging you a micropayment for every
minute of content that you consume, but rather charge a flat monthly fee.

I highly doubt that Netflix would be more successful if they would abandon their current business model.
Micropayments are a viable solution for many other problems, but the subscription model has
several advantages when it comes to stuff that is consumed in large amounts - not only from
the merchant perspective, but also from the consumer perspective.
292  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: [H] Paypal € [W] BTC on: May 27, 2018, 09:04:11 AM
Sent.

Thank you!
293  Economy / Currency exchange / . on: May 26, 2018, 12:01:47 PM
.
294  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-05-23] Vinnik Confessed To Fraudulent Through Cryptocurrency Exchange BTC- on: May 26, 2018, 11:19:29 AM
...
They might let him off for upsetting foreigners.
...

This is extremely unlikely in my opinion.

Take a look at this quote from the article / opening post:
Quote
...as a result of his fraudulent actions, namely through money laundering,
an unspecified group of Russian citizens suffered material damage amounting to 750 million rubles...

There is no way they are going to release him if he caused a financial damage to
Russian citizens that is as high as 750 million rubles. It is highly likely that he will be
put to jail for more than a decade.



295  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-05-24] U.S. Department of Justice Set to Probe Suspected Bitcoin Price Man on: May 26, 2018, 11:13:57 AM
...
I think that there is one exchange specifically contributing to manipulative behavior due to all its tools and features, and that exchange is called BitMEX. This exchange alone has a $2.6 billion 24h BTC/USD volume.

If we look at the volumes of the other large exchanges, then there are only a few exchanges having a 24h volume of around $200 million. The rest all have volumes far below that. It's quite an interesting development.

Not that long ago BitMEXs 24h volume even exceeded the $5 billion mark. 

I also suspect that BitMEX is one of the exchanges where manipulation is rampant.
If you haven´t seen this Medium article, you should definitely take a look at it:
https://medium.com/@mattcollburner/bitmex-insiders-caught-in-a-web-of-lies-6d9b90baa693

Of course this could be FUD, but it seems very shady to me if a subsidiary of BitMEX is
trading on the same platform that the retail customers use (this opens up all
kind of possible scams like frontrunning, hunting stops and so on).

296  Other / Ivory Tower / Re: Thoughts on DuckDuckGo? on: May 26, 2018, 10:25:41 AM
As long as it is the official search engine in TOR browser it is much better than google, no need to add anything else.

I never knew that TOR's default browser was DDG. I've never used TOR because I'm afraid it will be malicious to my computer somehow.

I wouldn´t worry about the TOR software, I´d rather worry about the rumors
that certain intelligence agencies (e.g. the NSA) are owning a non-negligible
percentage of the TOR exit nodes. If this is indeed true, your anonymity can be
compromised if you are unlucky.

Obviously TOR is still more anonymous than a regular internet connection.
297  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrimeDice should reverse the deposits???????? on: May 25, 2018, 12:13:01 PM
... You can't retroactively apply regulations like this.
...

Tell that to the Indian government  Grin

https://cryptonews.com/news/indian-government-may-retroactively-tax-crypto-1851.htm

Quote
The cryptocurrency regulations, or lack thereof, in India may be confusing, but the
newest reports from the country are only adding fuel to the fire. The government is reportedly
considering levying a type of consumption tax on cryptocurrency trading and even mining.
However, this may also become a retroactive measure, demanding payments for past actions.

Regarding the actual topic of this thread it is obvious that they are not going to reimburse customers
from these countries. Besides, I highly doubt that they actively encouraged players from these countries
to use a VPN. They may have not really cared about the possibility to use a VPN, but active encouragement
by the operators seems extremely unlikely.



298  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Does modern civilization is currently progressing or declining? on: May 25, 2018, 11:13:44 AM
...
Life is becoming too easy imho in the good countries, at least looking at it as an outsider living in the third world.  You basically can just ride the welfare train and live a decent life sponging off your government.
...

I think this problem is partly caused by the combination of wealth and democracy as a
form of government. Democracy works great in the first generation where everyone still
remembers the horrors of the tyranny or the dictatorship that preceded the democracy.

However, in the first world we are already past that stage where nearly all people, who still experienced
these horrors are either dead or too old. The other problem is related to the fact that the easiest
way to get people to like you and to actually vote for you, is to promise them free stuff and
government handouts. This leads to a bidding war between candidates where you can only win an election
if you promise to increase government spending / welfare. This leads to an expansion of the welfare
state, which in turn leads to an increasingly large number of people that live off the government.
After the percentage of these people gets too big in a society, the society is basically fucked.
E.g. in my rather rich European country only 14 % of the people are net taxpayers
(the other 86 % of the population either pay no taxes at all (children, unemployed...) or pay
less in taxes than they receive in other government transfers). This is obviously a huge problem
for the society and my society is not the only society that is experiencing this bad development.

Despite this unsustainable decline of society the system still hasn´t exploded, because of the reason
that I shortly touched upon at the start - the enormous wealth that has been built up
in the previous generations and the general technological progress.

Nonetheless, I completely agree with your post that these countries will experience very bad times
in the future.
299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 25, 2018, 10:42:14 AM
...
Apparently you can come to a pro-Bitcoin forum (Bitcointalk.org) and talk shit about Bitcoin. For years and years and years. Not only will the mods NOT ban you, they'll allow you to continue doing it. Because 'muh free speech. And allow you to multiply sock puppet Troll accounts by the 1000s. Eventually running off all the pro-Bitcoin people, leaving behind nothing but Trolls and salty Bitcoin haters that outnumber everyone else by 1000:1.
...

If you think this is bad, you should take a look at the Currency Exchange subforum.
Obvious scammers have been using self-locked threads (they lock their own threads after every bump)
for months in attempts to scam unsuspecting newbies.

The problem is known to the administration and yet these users are still allowed to post,
because this apparently is also covered by "free speech" and scams are not
moderated all over Bitcointalk.

In my opinion this is even worse than the conspiracy theories posted by various guys here, because of
the financial damage that it causes.


...
There are only two camps of people, those that believe in sound, physical money that actually exists in the real world like silver and gold, and those that believe in completely arbitrary, imaginary, valueless tokens like US dollars, bitcoins, and Chuck E Cheese tokens.

Do US dollars have a hard cap? No.
Do US dollars have a predictable issuance schedule? No.
Do Chuck E Cheese tokens have a hard cap? No.
Do Chuck E Cheese tokens have a predictable issuance schedule? No.

Do Bitcoins have a hard cap? Yes.
Do Bitcoins have a predictable issuance schedule? Yes.

Therefore it is either stupid or disingenuous to lump Bitcoins in with these obvious
scam projects like US dollars or Chuck E Cheese tokens.
300  Economy / Speculation / Re: What would happen if Bitcoin did hit $1m by mid-2020? on: May 24, 2018, 05:02:48 PM
let me put the question into context for all you dreamers: in order to mine 1 bitcoin in average in the world you need to spend about 5000$ in electricity. In China it's 4000$, Ukraine 1000$, ...

Do you think any kind of "thing" produced for 5000$ can be sold for 1 million $? Even in a short term bubble? Who is the idiot that will spend 1 million dollars instead of just 5000 for 1 btc?

You are welcome. You can stop daydreaming now

Electricity is not the only cost in mining a Bitcoin. If it were that easy everyone would
just mine their own BTC.

You forgot that the difficulty of mining BTC increases all the time. E.g. years ago you
could successfully mine a block using your own CPU. These days you won´t mine a single block
if you don´t have a data center full of the newest ASICs.

Even if you have a data center full of ASICs (that also cost money) you will run them 24/7 and
not mine a block for days, because the mining market is so competitive.

In a year the average cost of mining a single Bitcoin will probably be 8000 $ or more, because
of the rising difficulty.
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