phoenix1
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 08, 2014, 01:36:29 AM |
|
I really hope and think we'll break up.
What do you think though?
The upcoming silk road auction will likely cause at least short term pressure on the price. How so? Who in their right mind would pay market price or higher then turn around on an exchange and dump the price down further than where they bought in? lol Good question, unless they wanted them all, which we already know someone did not ... And if not putting in a knock-out bid for all of them who in their right mind would pay above current market price for blocks of 2 or 3k ?
|
"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
|
|
|
Tzupy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 09, 2014, 06:56:12 AM |
|
Since oda.krell posted a bullish scenario that doesn't make sense to me, I decided to post how a bullish scenario should look IMO. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpcPabgU.png&t=665&c=s7VyzblynuSM5A) Remember this? It has been invalidated. Now the bullish scenario is to test support at 275$ on huge volume and bounce for good.
|
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
|
|
|
masterluc (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 09, 2014, 07:08:21 AM |
|
Impulse continues, bear flag triggered. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sierrachart.com%2Fimage.php%3Fl%3D1418108817420.png&t=665&c=zR0NiaRQxa6_yA)
|
|
|
|
HorseinHole
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 2
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 09, 2014, 10:17:28 PM |
|
So sub-200 was not a typo but instead a clear prediction of the coming trend.
|
|
|
|
sumantso
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 12, 2014, 07:27:17 PM |
|
Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.
Good good, got my money ready ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right?
|
|
|
|
pinky
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 12, 2014, 07:35:09 PM |
|
Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.
Good good, got my money ready ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right? Nobody knows, depends on a level of panic, but below 200 is not impossible.
|
|
|
|
mymenace
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1061
Smile
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 12, 2014, 08:52:09 PM |
|
Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.
Good good, got my money ready ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right? Nobody knows, depends on a level of panic, but below 200 is not impossible. the more bears who yell sell the more the price will rise
|
|
|
|
lunarboy
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 12, 2014, 08:57:52 PM |
|
Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.
Good good, got my money ready ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right? Nobody knows, depends on a level of panic, but below 200 is not impossible. The double whammy of paypal and microsoft will have sparked enough new big capital interest, to make me assume we've already seen the bottom this year.
|
|
|
|
Coinshot
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 12, 2014, 10:08:10 PM |
|
Impulse continues, bear flag triggered.
Good good, got my money ready ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Any estimate of target? Sub $200 was a typo, right? Nobody knows, depends on a level of panic, but below 200 is not impossible. The double whammy of paypal and microsoft will have sparked enough new big capital interest, to make me assume we've already seen the bottom this year. It feels like each new positive news is not having enough effect. The downwards pressure over the longer term is quite high.
|
|
|
|
Tzupy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 15, 2014, 03:20:48 PM Last edit: December 20, 2014, 12:01:55 PM by Tzupy |
|
While the waves are poorly defined, my most probable scenario for the near future is a repeat of the August 11 - 17 crash. Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August, I used 12h for the old chart and 6h for the current chart. To confirm this, 6h MACD divergence and 6h PSAR should turn bearish. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbitcoincharts.com%2Fcharts%2Fchart.png%3Fwidth%3D940%26m%3DbitstampUSD%26SubmitButton%3DDraw%26r%3D180%26i%3D12-hour%26c%3D1%26s%3D2014-06-01%26e%3D2014-08-24%26Prev%3D%26Next%3D%26t%3DS%26b%3DB%26a1%3D%26m1%3D10%26a2%3D%26m2%3D25%26x%3D0%26i1%3D%26i2%3DMACD%26i3%3DMFI%26i4%3DStochRSI%26v%3D1%26cv%3D0%26ps%3D1%26l%3D0%26p%3D0%26&t=665&c=OMJFSb5IL2BS9w) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbitcoincharts.com%2Fcharts%2Fchart.png%3Fwidth%3D940%26m%3DbitstampUSD%26SubmitButton%3DDraw%26r%3D60%26i%3D6-hour%26c%3D1%26s%3D2014-11-12%26e%3D2014-12-30%26Prev%3D%26Next%3D%26t%3DS%26b%3DB%26a1%3D%26m1%3D10%26a2%3D%26m2%3D25%26x%3D0%26i1%3D%26i2%3DMACD%26i3%3DMFI%26i4%3DStochRSI%26v%3D1%26cv%3D0%26ps%3D1%26l%3D0%26p%3D0%26&t=665&c=T9Ho3oo6jQSWCA) PS. This also supports the bearish scenario. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FLUjay9Q.png&t=665&c=7I9DdA4WeplIZQ) PS2. 6h PSAR just flipped. 6hMACD divergence still positive (barely).
|
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
|
|
|
Wary
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 15, 2014, 08:46:34 PM |
|
Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task.
|
Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
|
|
|
Tzupy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 15, 2014, 08:59:04 PM |
|
Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task. It sure was confusing for the last weeks, but it seems to get clearer. I measure time elapsed between peaks and bottoms of the sub-sub-waves or even sub-sub-sub-waves (if recognizable). If the speed stays twice as fast as June - August - 6th October, then THE bottom could be reached in January instead of February as I guesstimated some time ago.
|
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
|
|
|
Wary
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 15, 2014, 09:03:27 PM |
|
Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task. It sure was confusing for the last weeks, but it seems to get clearer. I measure time elapsed between peaks and bottoms of the sub-sub-waves or even sub-sub-sub-waves (if recognizable). If the speed stays twice as fast as June - August - 6th October, then THE bottom could be reached in January instead of February as I guesstimated some time ago. Thanks.
|
Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
|
|
|
sniveling
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 15, 2014, 10:09:29 PM |
|
Impulse continues, bear flag triggered. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sierrachart.com%2Fimage.php%3Fl%3D1418108817420.png&t=665&c=zR0NiaRQxa6_yA) Does this mean you think we will be down to 200 by about new years day?
|
|
|
|
grappa_barricata
Full Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif) ![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
playing pasta and eating mandolinos
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 15, 2014, 10:47:17 PM Last edit: December 16, 2014, 04:48:03 AM by grappa_barricata |
|
Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task. Good question. How can that be measured, @Tzupy? I'll love a metric for that. Are you using volume alone? Or are you using the classical volatility metric?
|
Fortune cannot take away what she has not given.
|
|
|
Tzupy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 16, 2014, 11:10:06 AM Last edit: December 16, 2014, 12:12:21 PM by Tzupy |
|
Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task. Good question. How can that be measured, @Tzupy? I'll love a metric for that. Are you using volume alone? Or are you using the classical volatility metric? Time elapsed between peaks and bottoms in June - August (please excuse small counting errors) compared with current market: June 1st to June 25th, so 24 days. From 680$ to 557$. November 13th to November 21st, 8 days. From 454$ to 342$. This was about thrice as fast. June 25th to July 3rd, so 9 days. From 557$ to 660$. November 21st to November 25th, so 4 days. From 342$ to 395$. This slowed down to about twice as fast. July 3rd to August 1st, so 28 days. From 660$ to 557$. November 25th to December 11th, so 16 days. From 395$ to 340$. This was also about twice as fast.
|
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
|
|
|
grappa_barricata
Full Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif) ![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
playing pasta and eating mandolinos
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 17, 2014, 01:28:09 AM |
|
Time elapsed between peaks and bottoms in June - August (please excuse small counting errors) compared with current market:
June 1st to June 25th, so 24 days. From 680$ to 557$. November 13th to November 21st, 8 days. From 454$ to 342$. This was about thrice as fast.
June 25th to July 3rd, so 9 days. From 557$ to 660$. November 21st to November 25th, so 4 days. From 342$ to 395$. This slowed down to about twice as fast.
July 3rd to August 1st, so 28 days. From 660$ to 557$. November 25th to December 11th, so 16 days. From 395$ to 340$. This was also about twice as fast.
Thank you, very interesting.
|
Fortune cannot take away what she has not given.
|
|
|
Hen0xyd
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 87
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 17, 2014, 10:55:06 AM |
|
Triple bottom @322 ? Daily chart, from Bitstamp : ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXjASIKC.png&t=665&c=m3f3ip49bW35dg)
|
|
|
|
sniveling
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 17, 2014, 12:04:09 PM |
|
No, it just went down to 319.6
|
|
|
|
Bassica
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 18, 2014, 11:59:33 AM |
|
Master Luc, I summon thou
|
|
|
|
|