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1261  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 04:31:48 PM


For those who may have missed it. Compilation of hardware difficulty at $200usd with power cost of $0.10 kwh

1262  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 04:17:12 PM
1263  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 02:03:18 PM
1264  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2015, 01:36:35 AM


Needs a push?
1265  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 10:01:15 PM
1266  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 04:06:39 PM
1267  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 07:46:22 AM


2015 Unfortunately.
1268  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 07:35:44 AM
1269  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 07:27:30 AM
1270  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 06:09:46 AM
1271  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 05:07:47 AM
I doubt it will be a problem. The retarget might be steep, but to be honest miners are an exceptionally irrational bunch. Moreso than catcoin.

Besides, it's winter in the northern hemisphere and Bitcoin would have to go a lot lower before the value of the heat generated by a miner loses it's edge over natural gas.



But it is a huge pain to send bitcoins when you want to use them as soon as possible. If you need 3-6 confirmations you could get stuck for few hours.

When we had that small issue back in 2013 many exchanged BTC to LTC at exchanges and used that for the 6 or so hours.

LTC does have a place.
1272  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 05:03:14 AM
Support is barely holding w no volume.  Looks like massive breakdown will ensue

Its been 2 hours since the volume has subsided.

Seems people have halted the aggressive trading.

2Hour Volume Now


Daily Volume Now


Daily Volume 2 Hours ago.
1273  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 04:54:11 AM
I doubt it will be a problem. The retarget might be steep, but to be honest miners are an exceptionally irrational bunch. Moreso than catcoin.

Besides, it's winter in the northern hemisphere and Bitcoin would have to go a lot lower before the value of the heat generated by a miner loses it's edge over natural gas.



Personally I am not convinced there is a need to adjust the Bitcoin difficulty re-target %. This opens up a business opportunity for payment processors for those transactions that just can't wait.
1274  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 04:44:05 AM

Wow things are not looking well...
Maybe it's time to finally get my coins out of cold storage... (not sure if I want to though as I have to put all money on exchange. If it were to somehow get hacked agani, I'll be fucked..)

I have imputed a 20% reduction in difficulty over an extended 21.4 day period between re-targets and these are the results at $100 and $200 using Bitmain 30xS3 as an example.

Please feel free to point out any issues with the equation.

BTC@$100 USD


BTC@$200 USD

1275  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 04:02:04 AM
There is a risk that if too many miners go offline block creation may stall.

The bitcoin source code has a max difficulty adjustment up or down of 4x from previous difficulty.

At most the effects would be short lived.

The reality is those with older hardware may soon retire the use of them and be unable to afford the next generation due to costs.
However many people that are choosing to enter the project may offset the issue.
1276  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 03:31:55 AM
Quote
what percentage of the bitcoin holders and traders would understand what that piechart means, or care about it?
From what it I have read you may be mistaken about what I find valuable in this technology and the network.

I know that there are people who care for bitcoin for "ideological" reasons, and would get very upset about any deviation from what they perceive as the "core values" of the project.  (Mircea Popescu's "war declaration" about increasing the block size is an example of that.)

However, I believe that the ideologues are a very small fraction of the people involved in the bicoin "industry", and have very little power over it -- economic, computational, or managerial.  I believe that the vast majority of the bitcoiners (say, 99.9%) do not care about those "core values", and would not be upset if they are violated.  On the contrary, the major players would use their economic power to convince everyody that the violations are unimportant, or even good for bitcoin.

In fact, I believe that many of the "ideological" supporters would choose to conform to some violations of the principles, rather than see the project collapse because of "civil war".

I see that already happening now, about the centralization of mining.  True believers should have committed suicide the moment that GHash.io got more than 50% of the hashpower.  Instead, people preferred to believe the argument that a majority miner (or coalition of 4-5 miners)  would never want do any of the naughty things that it could do, because of "the incentives"; and just carried on.


One can't factor out the human trait of greed and ego.
1277  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 03:29:43 AM

To me the value is what you send and what the other party receives is 100% verified by 3rd party participants and I can't not say the same for ripple as it is centralized in its inception.
I'm just gonna step in and say that while the ripple network requires some degree of counter-party risk with gateways to move any currency in the network, XRP (its native currency) is 100% decentralised like BTC. Only its distribution is centralised, aside from that, to send XRPs around it's basically the same thing as BTC, but without POW and instantly.

But again, most of the time the counter-party free aspect of bitcoin is mostly related to the privacy-paranoia vague narratives of bitcoin in the first place.

What you say is true along with it's own challenges that given time will succeed as a medium to help move the banking institutions into this technology space.

At present it has specialized use of the crypto technology with little flexibility for other use.
1278  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 03:22:26 AM


To me the ignore option is a way to weed threw the wheat vs the shaft in this thread, and then if they feel they have missed something then open up the floor to the "other" perspective.



If you want people to take you seriously, you need to improve your written english.

Threw /= Through   (I know they sound the same).

You sort "the wheat from the chaff" (chaff is the hull of the wheat which is not digestible in humans but is often used for livestock fodder)

I appreciate your candid remark, English is not my first language.
1279  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 03:05:07 AM
What are [the "trolls"] gonna do with their lives if Bitcoin really does die?...

I don't think that bitcoin will die so soon.  Bitcoin does not need to be worth more than 0.10$ to fullfill its purpose of a proof of concept, and will find plenty of volunteers to keep it running, even at that price.

What may die is the economy that was built on top of it, that assumed it would replace national currencies replace paypal replace Western Union become the 'gold backing' for a multitude of better altcoins.
Everyone will lose interest in this and every other public forum. The next crypto will be supported and premined by central banks. There will be nobody that cares about your trolling then.

There are serious trust issues that are inevitable with your suggested solution. Employee theft is a reality and under such controls they would have a field day.

However I can see them using "bitcoin" as a trusted communication tool between large institutional banks.
1280  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2015, 02:45:57 AM
The good news is that the network distribution is well balanced.


Weeeelll, yes, all the top 4 companies would have to collude in order to launch a 51% attack (e.g. to take 100% of the rewards, by ignoring blocks mined by other miners and thus orphaning them).

Smiley indeed and then loose the faith of the community and go bankrupt for what?

People that adopt BTC as a trading platform should understand that many Bitcoin participants from all over the world with great minds are working on the tech satisfy ego, rather then the speculative opportunities.

Can you quantify that 'faith of the community' in dollars?  Starting from: what percentage of the bitcoin holders and traders would understand what that piechart means, or care about it?

AFAIK, the only way to tell whether a 'starving attack' is going on would be this chart
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-orphaned-blocks?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=56&scale=0
(Note that it is smoothed by 56-day running averaging, check the URL).  It shows that one found block gets discarded every 16 hours or so (because the next block found does not use it as parent).  Note the chart is zero before Mar/2014; I don't know whether the count was really zero, or just there is no data for that period.  

Anywy, these orphan blocks may be just accidents, or maybe some miner is doing something like Sirer's selfish mining attack.

If a coalition with 60% of the hashpower were really trying to steal an unfair share of the rewards, we probably would see many more orphan blocks. Or maybe not, I don't know.  Perhaps the coalition (that could deploy thousands of relay nodes of their own) would find a way to cloak the attack and/or hide the identity of the attackers.


"what percentage of the bitcoin holders and traders would understand what that piechart means, or care about it?"

From what it I have read you may be mistaken about what I find valuable in this technology and the network.

To me the value is what you send and what the other party receives is 100% verified by 3rd party participants and I can't not say the same for ripple as it is centralized in its inception.

Sure I am for profit yet it is not my primary motivation.

However as far as the bitcoin protocol, the block chain, and the network strength is the only other factor that is vital for the operation of the bitcoin crypto and to use it how you feel. As far as a means of currency when used to purchase rather then "HOLD" USD EURO CAD and BTC the "Value" is not a factor unless you are a miner motivation by profit.

Many bitcoin miners myself included have donated our cpu/gpu and fpga cycles to distributed computing with little reward.

That truth is something many speculators here fail to grasp.

THE technology is.

IT has been proven that the simplest way to "CHEAT" anyone using any currency including bitcoin is by use of social engineering partnered with cleverly crafted scams so as to profit from others lapse in judgment.
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