Im assuming 50,000 shares are currently issued (if its not higher, then hardly anyone went for the OTC share sales).
Calculated using known daily income of 1TH = 4.46btc per day.
So, 3.75 (average LR hashing rate) * 4.46 * 7 = 117.07btc per week.
So, 117.07 x .75 (reinvestment fund) / 50000 = 0.0023 div per share
Check the math on that. I still come out with about BTC0.0018 |
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Looks like LRM is on track for ~BTC0.00179977 per bond this weekend. Call it BTC.0018
Speculative Bond price with Price:Dividend (P/D) of x120 => ~BTC0.216 bond price; x190 => ~BTC0.342
Using current P/D = 0.17/0.00116401 = x146 => ~BTC0.2628
Let's see how the prices/dividend ratio helps or not in speculating price this weekend. I'm not confident, but the outcome will be interesting.
The ratio could go still go down since it's already x146...maybe some kind of equilibrium will bring it closer to x120 or x100... or lower?
Any thoughts on what people think a weekly or annual return would attract the average person to hold or buy?
x100 = 1.00% per week = 52% annual (if sustained)
x120 = ~0.83% per week = ~43% annual ""
x146 = ~0.68% per week = ~36% annual ""
x190 = ~0.53% per week = ~27% annual ""
Most shares were bought at maybe 0.17 or 0.18 on average. So, those may want to hold onto bonds more tightly than those that bought at 0.20.
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Actually he says "it's better to over-promise under-deliver correct?", which is the opposite.  lol.. You're right, but I think he meant the opposite... or perhaps it was a freudian slip.  j/k |
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Can you clarify "The 400-700 range is for the first order or so from BitFury... There will be a lot more almost immediately after that."
So are you saying that the mh/bond will be higher than 700 after the Bitfury delivery?
I don't think he wants to promise anything too high or specific. His philosophy on it seems to be, as he implied, it's better to end up having over-delivered than under-delivered. Safer that way in this community, from what I've seen. |
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Volume weighted average for one day, one week from today. (Gox, GMT)
I'll start.
Monday, September 23, 2013 $127.21
$160 |
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Labrat modified his per bond hashrate estimate to: "The current estimate for the hashrate per bond to be paid out is in the range of 400-700MH/s per bond based on current bond sales (after all hardware is received.)" source: http://www.labratmining.com/currentHashrate.htmlI thought the prior estimated outlook was 600MH/s (or 600+MH/s). In contrast, this part remained the same: "The current estimate for the company's total hash-rate once all hardware is secured is likely to be over 30TH based on current bond sales. (Updated: 09/16/2013)" Should this be interpreted as a downgraded outlook? Anyone have thoughts on this? |
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In regards to your last line. I've actually thought about that. As long as im not losing too much money, it may be easier to mine them at a small loss because most of us here believe that the btc will go up dramatically in the next 10 years. So, if it costs me 200 bucks in electricity to get 150 dollars in bitcoins (in todays market) may be a solution. Now, If I didn't have faith the btc will go up, then that idea would be stupid. Its an easy way to get bitcoins, even if your paying more than market price at the time.
Also, the btc could and probably still will make a dramatic drop and then recover, its done that since the beginning. I remember when I was mining at a loss when bitcoins were only going for about 2 bucks a piece. I kept mining, It actually paid off quite well after a few months.. I guess its what your risk tolerance is.
This mining thing is quite the experience.....
Yeah, that's why I'm feeling out of the game myself. If I were into it, I'd rather buy early on pre-order hardware and try selling it off for 50% markup or something like that. It seems like there would be less headaches involved. |
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My guess would be that Lab_Rat doesn't want to specifically say he's hooking up say, another 3TH or whatever today, then disappoint due to a technical glitch. No news is fine with me, as I know that when the LR does speak, it's important and positive.
I'm pretty happy with it flying low right now, as I doubt I'd have much chance to buy cheap shares once he's running at >600MH/s/share or even 300 for that matter.
Also, if Lab_Rat gets into details here, he'll have everyone pick apart his every word, and end up wasting a lot of time and stress for no gain. Best to run silent, run deep, and just get the job done I reckon.
Too many details would be a hassle, so, I can understand that. But some more transparency on plans might be helpful. That may still come though. For example: the plan to beat difficutly is, imo, the most important. True that 600MH/bond is six times better than 100MH, but in what context? What does that mean if difficulty is six times higher when you achieve 600MH? LRM is still in the start up phase as far as I'm concerned, but the basic plans for the long haul would be helpful to know. I'm not sure on whether 25% re-investment is sufficient to match difficulty. YEa, right now the difficulty is crazy. it will only get worse and probably never get better. But, I do think it will slow down. Right now is when most of the asics are delivering or starting to deliver, hence the 20-30 percent diff each time. So your right, It would be probably smart to invest more than 25 percent for now, then slow down when the difficulty isnt going crazy high, (if it ever stops lol) Right now, demand is high for hardware. As difficulty goes up, demand will tend to slow. More than likely, hardware manufacturers will lower the costs. Some kind of demand/supply equilibrium will be gravitated towards. I kinda imagine part of it all heading to something like this: How much are PC's selling for now? You can pretty easily buy one with a decent CPU for $1000. Mining hardware is simpler than any PC. The driving cost will be the chips. ASIC mfg's will have surely (I think anyway) recovered all development costs at a certain point soon, and if the demand is low enough, prices should plummet, I'd think... BUT... there is probably an equilibrium point where mfg's can't reduce the cost any more, and electricity costs can't justify buying more mining hardware. The only obvious factor left that to would upset that equilibrium point would be bitcoin value or new technology (but that is further out)... unless there are people that won't mind mining to the point of no return (literally) as a kind of pseudo-exchange where their fiat (i.e. the cost of electricity) is essentially "buying" bitcoins. Or maybe for those that might have free or extremely cheap electricity. |
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My guess would be that Lab_Rat doesn't want to specifically say he's hooking up say, another 3TH or whatever today, then disappoint due to a technical glitch. No news is fine with me, as I know that when the LR does speak, it's important and positive.
I'm pretty happy with it flying low right now, as I doubt I'd have much chance to buy cheap shares once he's running at >600MH/s/share or even 300 for that matter.
Also, if Lab_Rat gets into details here, he'll have everyone pick apart his every word, and end up wasting a lot of time and stress for no gain. Best to run silent, run deep, and just get the job done I reckon.
Too many details would be a hassle, so, I can understand that. But some more transparency on plans might be helpful. That may still come though. For example: the plan to beat difficutly is, imo, the most important. True that 600MH/bond is six times better than 100MH, but in what context? What does that mean if difficulty is six times higher when you achieve 600MH? LRM is still in the start up phase as far as I'm concerned, but the basic plans for the long haul would be helpful to know. I'm not sure on whether 25% re-investment is sufficient to match difficulty. |
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Yea, im excited as to what the news is...I believe its going to be pretty good. whatever the news is, I bet it makes the bond price go up....
Seems that no news or insight into actual money use is where a lot of the instability or price decay comes from. Might be why some people are apparently selling out instead of holding... unless they were original buyers just looking to make a quick buck, but met with disappointment that it didn't pop or soar as they'd hoped by now. |
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I think price will be low till each share hashing power goes beyond atleast 100+ Mh/S as there are some other bonds/shares that are cheaper than LRM & provide more Mh/s per share compared to LRM, but LRM has great potential once each bond starts to go beyond 200 Mh/S per share..  The only issue is that it looks like were going to go from ~75MH/s per share straight up to at least 300+... I hope everyone is ok with that? I have a lot of news on the way, hopefully some today, but some news is going to have to wait a little while to release. is your estimated 300+ from a partial shipment of bitfury or are you still receiving other ASIC hardware? I have the same question. I suspect that you are asking the wrong question. My guess is that the 300MH/s/bond will be from a full delivery of BitFury hardware, and that the remaining hashrate/bond will come from other manufacturers, so the question should probably be "what other hardware is coming after BitFury?" I also think his post strongly implies that little/no hardware will be arriving in the meatime (other than the temp hashrate from Dave). But this could be all wrong. The only 28nm hardware Labrat has on order, that I know of, are the Monarchs. I thought the bulk of the 30+TH of hardware to be ordered was going to be Bitfury. Hopefully, we aren't waiting on just Butterfly Labs to deliver the remaining hardware after whenever the nice bump to 300+MH happens. Labrat said he has some news on the way - sounds interesting. Maybe that will answer those questions. |
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I think price will be low till each share hashing power goes beyond atleast 100+ Mh/S as there are some other bonds/shares that are cheaper than LRM & provide more Mh/s per share compared to LRM, but LRM has great potential once each bond starts to go beyond 200 Mh/S per share.. The only issue is that it looks like were going to go from ~75MH/s per share straight up to at least 300+... I hope everyone is ok with that? I have a lot of news on the way, hopefully some today, but some news is going to have to wait a little while to release. is your estimated 300+ from a partial shipment of bitfury or are you still receiving other ASIC hardware? I have the same question. |
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I think price will be low till each share hashing power goes beyond atleast 100+ Mh/S as there are some other bonds/shares that are cheaper than LRM & provide more Mh/s per share compared to LRM, but LRM has great potential once each bond starts to go beyond 200 Mh/S per share.. Hopefully this will be the case in one month. Assuming the BitFury hardware comes in. |
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I guess they couldn't make it in time and decided to skip to 130 nm. Now they are struggling with the 130 nm.
Heh. I think I've heard this music before, but I can't quite put my finger on where.... grnbrg. Yeah, I was working on a 1cm chip, I might have to go to 0.5cm now... j/k... obviously enough I hope.  |
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Also available is the TerraMiner IV retailing for $5999 in the January batch - the first mining equipment available anywhere to break the $3 per Gigahash barrier!
I like Cointerra so far. But why not just call it an even $3/GH, instead of breaking the barrier - sounds so definitive. If talking fiat, $2.9995/GH retail is still $3.00/GH (for all practical purposes). You still have to pay for shipping anyway. Just saying. Wait until Cointerra announces less than $2/GH... or $1/GH. Eventually, it's going to have to arrive. Retailers are subject to difficulty as well, since it dampens demand for hardware with less ROI potential. |
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Two very different propositions. ActM hasn't really started yet - the share price reflects the potential of ActM over the next few months (i.e. once they start selling hardware and hashing with their own chips). Not to take anything away from LRM, which I think is a solid mining stock to hold.
I looked ,but couldn't find anything. Is there anything like a prospectus they have online? or Do you think most of the price activity is based guessing potential profitability? BTW: If they make their own 28nm asic chips, it seems it would be very hard to compete with them as a cloud or virtual miner, since they'd have no markup on their chips. |
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HashFast and FastHash are 2 different ASIC companies/products.
Confusing. I was trying to figure this out. Can you cite any other sources to confirm this? This is all I've found on the forums so far. Would be surprising that two companies allow/accept such similar sounding names. |
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Labrat
Can you please update us with how many shares are now outstanding, currently?
Go here: https://bitfunder.com/asset/LabRatMiningClick the 'Dividends' tab/link. It will show the number of shares that dividends were distributed over. |
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Paid out dividends a little early this week everyone, got some hardware to set up again this Saturday and wanted to make sure they went out on time.
This is the last week the dividends will be cut due to the double payout. Next week we go back to normal dividends and we'll have a nice spike in hashrate to boot.
Actual dividend payout today was BTC57.61383896 or 49496 @ BTC0.00116401 a piece. Things will only get better from here on out.
Nice payout, thank you very much! Dividends steadily climbing, share price steadily falling... It's a strange world we live in  Whoa! 116,000+ satoshis per share with 2nd half of mix-up taken out?! More hash being added this week, next weeks payout bound to be even bigger. And as mmmerlin mentions, price still going down...earn more satoshi on shares held while earning more every week on a per-share basis. conclusion: I would be a fool not to pick up a few more of these ASAP I forgot, but I think it was the 3rd 1/3rd of the mix-up taken out. Either case, next week seems scheduled to be normal dividends. |
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Paid out dividends a little early this week everyone, got some hardware to set up again this Saturday and wanted to make sure they went out on time.
This is the last week the dividends will be cut due to the double payout. Next week we go back to normal dividends and we'll have a nice spike in hashrate to boot.
Actual dividend payout today was BTC57.61383896 or 49496 @ BTC0.00116401 a piece. Things will only get better from here on out.
Do you know when you're going to be placing the orders with Dave yet? |
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