-

[bigasic]

My guess would be that Lab_Rat doesn't want to specifically say he's hooking up say, another 3TH or whatever today, then disappoint due to a technical glitch.  No news is fine with me, as I know that when the LR does speak, it's important and positive.

I'm pretty happy with it flying low right now, as I doubt I'd have much chance to buy cheap shares once he's running at >600MH/s/share or even 300 for that matter.

Also, if Lab_Rat gets into details here, he'll have everyone pick apart his every word, and end up wasting a lot of time and stress for no gain.  Best to run silent, run deep, and just get the job done I reckon.

Too many details would be a hassle, so, I can understand that. But some more transparency on plans might be helpful. That may still come though. For example: the plan to beat difficutly is, imo, the most important. True that 600MH/bond is six times better than 100MH, but in what context? What does that mean if difficulty is six times higher when you achieve 600MH?

LRM is still in the start up phase as far as I'm concerned, but the basic plans for the long haul would be helpful to know. I'm not sure on whether 25% re-investment is sufficient to match difficulty.

YEa, right now the difficulty is crazy. it will only get worse and probably never get better. But, I do think it will slow down. Right now is when most of the asics are delivering or starting to deliver, hence the 20-30 percent diff each time. So your right, It would be probably smart to invest more than 25 percent for now, then slow down when the difficulty isnt going crazy high, (if it ever stops lol)

[||bit]

My guess would be that Lab_Rat doesn't want to specifically say he's hooking up say, another 3TH or whatever today, then disappoint due to a technical glitch.  No news is fine with me, as I know that when the LR does speak, it's important and positive.

I'm pretty happy with it flying low right now, as I doubt I'd have much chance to buy cheap shares once he's running at >600MH/s/share or even 300 for that matter.

Also, if Lab_Rat gets into details here, he'll have everyone pick apart his every word, and end up wasting a lot of time and stress for no gain.  Best to run silent, run deep, and just get the job done I reckon.

Too many details would be a hassle, so, I can understand that. But some more transparency on plans might be helpful. That may still come though. For example: the plan to beat difficutly is, imo, the most important. True that 600MH/bond is six times better than 100MH, but in what context? What does that mean if difficulty is six times higher when you achieve 600MH?

LRM is still in the start up phase as far as I'm concerned, but the basic plans for the long haul would be helpful to know. I'm not sure on whether 25% re-investment is sufficient to match difficulty.

YEa, right now the difficulty is crazy. it will only get worse and probably never get better. But, I do think it will slow down. Right now is when most of the asics are delivering or starting to deliver, hence the 20-30 percent diff each time. So your right, It would be probably smart to invest more than 25 percent for now, then slow down when the difficulty isnt going crazy high, (if it ever stops lol)

Right now, demand is high for hardware. As difficulty goes up, demand will tend to slow. More than likely, hardware manufacturers will lower the costs. Some kind of demand/supply equilibrium will be gravitated towards. I kinda imagine part of it all heading to something like this: How much are PC's selling for now? You can pretty easily buy one with a decent CPU for $1000. Mining hardware is simpler than any PC. The driving cost will be the chips. ASIC mfg's will have surely (I think anyway) recovered all development costs at a certain point soon, and if the demand is low enough, prices should plummet, I'd think... BUT... there is probably an equilibrium point where mfg's can't reduce the cost any more, and electricity costs can't justify buying more mining hardware. The only obvious factor left that to would upset that equilibrium point would be bitcoin value or new technology (but that is further out)... unless there are people that won't mind mining to the point of no return (literally) as a kind of pseudo-exchange where their fiat (i.e. the cost of electricity) is essentially "buying" bitcoins. Or maybe for those that might have free or extremely cheap electricity.

[bigasic]

In regards to your last line. I've actually thought about that. As long as im not losing too much money, it may be easier to mine them at a small loss because most of us here believe that the btc will go up dramatically in the next 10 years. So, if it costs me 200 bucks in electricity to get 150 dollars in bitcoins (in todays market) may be a solution. Now, If I didn't have faith the btc will go up, then that idea would be stupid.  Its an easy way to get bitcoins, even if your paying more than market price at the time.

Also,  the btc could and probably still will make a dramatic drop and then recover, its done that since the beginning. I remember when I was mining at a loss when bitcoins were only going for about 2 bucks a piece. I kept mining, It actually paid off quite well after a few months..  I guess its what your risk tolerance is.

This mining thing is quite the experience.....

[||bit]

In regards to your last line. I've actually thought about that. As long as im not losing too much money, it may be easier to mine them at a small loss because most of us here believe that the btc will go up dramatically in the next 10 years. So, if it costs me 200 bucks in electricity to get 150 dollars in bitcoins (in todays market) may be a solution. Now, If I didn't have faith the btc will go up, then that idea would be stupid.  Its an easy way to get bitcoins, even if your paying more than market price at the time.

Also,  the btc could and probably still will make a dramatic drop and then recover, its done that since the beginning. I remember when I was mining at a loss when bitcoins were only going for about 2 bucks a piece. I kept mining, It actually paid off quite well after a few months..  I guess its what your risk tolerance is.

This mining thing is quite the experience.....

Yeah, that's why I'm feeling out of the game myself. If I were into it, I'd rather buy early on pre-order hardware and try selling it off for 50% markup or something like that. It seems like there would be less headaches involved.

[||bit]

Labrat modified his per bond hashrate estimate to:
"The current estimate for the hashrate per bond to be paid out is in the range of 400-700MH/s per bond based on current bond sales (after all hardware is received.)"

source: http://www.labratmining.com/currentHashrate.html

I thought the prior estimated outlook was 600MH/s (or 600+MH/s).

In contrast, this part remained the same:
"The current estimate for the company's total hash-rate once all hardware is secured is likely to be over 30TH based on current bond sales. (Updated: 09/16/2013)"

Should this be interpreted as a downgraded outlook? Anyone have thoughts on this?

[Lab_Rat]

Labrat modified his per bond hashrate estimate to:
"The current estimate for the hashrate per bond to be paid out is in the range of 400-700MH/s per bond based on current bond sales (after all hardware is received.)"

source: http://www.labratmining.com/currentHashrate.html

I thought the prior estimated outlook was 600MH/s (or 600+MH/s).

In contrast, this part remained the same:
"The current estimate for the company's total hash-rate once all hardware is secured is likely to be over 30TH based on current bond sales. (Updated: 09/16/2013)"

Should this be interpreted as a downgraded outlook? Anyone have thoughts on this?

Not downgraded. I just have a better guess now as things are getting closer and it's better not to over-promise under-deliver correct?  The 400-700 range is for the first order or so from BitFury... There will be a lot more almost immediately after that.

PS Live dynamically updated stats from the pool found here: http://www.labratmining.com/currentHashrate.php

I spoke with Dave Monday and everything was better than expected.  Should have some more solidified dates that I will be able to pass on to you guys (and gals) soon.

Should have some good news tomorrow and some even better news within 2 weeks (Not a BFL pun)

[bittymitty]

Can you clarify "The 400-700 range is for the first order or so from BitFury... There will be a lot more almost immediately after that."

So are you saying that the mh/bond will be higher than 700 after the Bitfury delivery?

[Lab_Rat]

Can you clarify "The 400-700 range is for the first order or so from BitFury... There will be a lot more almost immediately after that."

So are you saying that the mh/bond will be higher than 700 after the Bitfury delivery?

What that means is that there will be subsequent orders.

[bittymitty]

Keep em coming

[||bit]

Can you clarify "The 400-700 range is for the first order or so from BitFury... There will be a lot more almost immediately after that."

So are you saying that the mh/bond will be higher than 700 after the Bitfury delivery?

I don't think he wants to promise anything too high or specific. His philosophy on it seems to be, as he implied, it's better to end up having over-delivered than under-delivered.
Safer that way in this community, from what I've seen.

[runam0k]

Actually he says "it's better to over-promise under-deliver correct?", which is the opposite.

[||bit]

Actually he says "it's better to over-promise under-deliver correct?", which is the opposite.

lol.. You're right, but I think he meant the opposite... or perhaps it was a freudian slip. j/k

[||bit]

Looks like LRM is on track for ~BTC0.00179977 per bond this weekend.  Call it BTC.0018
Speculative Bond price with Price:Dividend (P/D) of x120 => ~BTC0.216 bond price; x190 => ~BTC0.342
Using current P/D = 0.17/0.00116401 = x146 => ~BTC0.2628

Let's see how the prices/dividend ratio helps or not in speculating price this weekend. I'm not confident, but the outcome will be interesting.
The ratio could go still go down since it's already x146...maybe some kind of equilibrium will bring it closer to x120 or x100... or lower?

Any thoughts on what people think a weekly or annual return would attract the average person to hold or buy?

x100 =   1.00% per week =   52% annual (if sustained)
x120 = ~0.83% per week = ~43% annual       ""
x146 = ~0.68% per week = ~36% annual       ""
x190 = ~0.53% per week = ~27% annual       ""

Most shares were bought at maybe 0.17 or 0.18 on average. So, those may want to hold onto bonds more tightly than those that bought at 0.20.

[stereotype]

Looks like LRM is on track for ~BTC0.00179977 per bond this weekend.  Call it BTC.0018
Speculative Bond price with Price:Dividend (P/D) of x120 => ~BTC0.216 bond price; x190 => ~BTC0.342
Using current P/D = 0.17/0.00116401 = x146 => ~BTC0.2628

Let's see how the prices/dividend ratio helps or not in speculating price this weekend. I'm not confident, but the outcome will be interesting.
The ratio could go still go down since it's already x146...maybe some kind of equilibrium will bring it closer to x120 or x100... or lower?

Any thoughts on what people think a weekly or annual return would attract the average person to hold or buy?

x100 = 1.00% per week = 52% annual (if sustained)
x120 = ~0.83% per week = ~43% annual ""
x146 = ~0.68% per week = ~36% annual ""
x190 = ~0.53% per week = ~27% annual ""

Most shares were bought at maybe 0.17 or 0.18 on average. So, those may want to hold onto bonds more tightly than those that bought at 0.20.

Im assuming 50,000 shares are currently issued (if its not higher, then hardly anyone went for the OTC share sales).
Calculated using known daily income of 1TH = 4.46btc per day.

So, 3.75 (average LR hashing rate) * 4.46 * 7 = 117.07btc per week.
So, 117.07 x .75 (reinvestment fund) / 50000 = 0.0023 div per share
Therefore, if bought @
   
0.15 = 1.53% weekly return
0.16 = 1.43% weekly return
0.17 = 1.35% weekly return
0.18 = 1.27% weekly return

All depends on what kind of interest you have, in how you relate and react to those figures (fund managers will like, short term investors will not like).
mmmerlin was making a point about seemingly unobtainable ROI's of 7% last week. If you believe KNC will deliver within ~10 days as intimated by KNC yesterday, i trust people have researched the current price/ROI of SNQI + SNQII ?? 

[mmmerlin]

Looks like LRM is on track for ~BTC0.00179977 per bond this weekend.  Call it BTC.0018
Speculative Bond price with Price:Dividend (P/D) of x120 => ~BTC0.216 bond price; x190 => ~BTC0.342
Using current P/D = 0.17/0.00116401 = x146 => ~BTC0.2628

Let's see how the prices/dividend ratio helps or not in speculating price this weekend. I'm not confident, but the outcome will be interesting.
The ratio could go still go down since it's already x146...maybe some kind of equilibrium will bring it closer to x120 or x100... or lower?

Any thoughts on what people think a weekly or annual return would attract the average person to hold or buy?

x100 = 1.00% per week = 52% annual (if sustained)
x120 = ~0.83% per week = ~43% annual ""
x146 = ~0.68% per week = ~36% annual ""
x190 = ~0.53% per week = ~27% annual ""

Most shares were bought at maybe 0.17 or 0.18 on average. So, those may want to hold onto bonds more tightly than those that bought at 0.20.

Im assuming 50,000 shares are currently issued (if its not higher, then hardly anyone went for the OTC share sales).
Calculated using known daily income of 1TH = 4.46btc per day.

So, 3.75 (average LR hashing rate) * 4.46 * 7 = 117.07btc per week.
So, 117.07 x .75 (reinvestment fund) / 50000 = 0.0023 div per share
Therefore, if bought @
  
0.15 = 1.53% weekly return
0.16 = 1.43% weekly return
0.17 = 1.35% weekly return
0.18 = 1.27% weekly return

All depends on what kind of interest you have, in how you relate and react to those figures (fund managers will like, short term investors will not like).
mmmerlin was making a point about seemingly unobtainable ROI's of 7% last week. If you believe KNC will deliver within ~10 days as intimated by KNC yesterday, i trust people have researched the current price/ROI of SNQI + SNQII ??  

Early delivered, top-of-the-line hardware will easily exceed 7% weekly; people who had early Avalon's got >>7% daily. The key is in it being sustainable though.

By the way, what are SNQI and SNQII? (Sorry if I'm being slow, and I did google first...)

[||bit]

Im assuming 50,000 shares are currently issued (if its not higher, then hardly anyone went for the OTC share sales).
Calculated using known daily income of 1TH = 4.46btc per day.

So, 3.75 (average LR hashing rate) * 4.46 * 7 = 117.07btc per week.
So, 117.07 x .75 (reinvestment fund) / 50000 = 0.0023 div per share

Check the math on that. I still come out with about BTC0.0018

[mmmerlin]

In case it's of interest, there are now exactly 50,000 bonds in existence, of which all but 318 are dividend paying, i.e. only 318 bonds of the IPO remain unsold.

[stereotype]

Im assuming 50,000 shares are currently issued (if its not higher, then hardly anyone went for the OTC share sales).
Calculated using known daily income of 1TH = 4.46btc per day.

So, 3.75 (average LR hashing rate) * 4.46 * 7 = 117.07btc per week.
So, 117.07 x .75 (reinvestment fund) / 50000 = 0.0023 div per share

Check your math on that. I still come out with about BTC0.0018

We have taken different routes for the same end. Im not familiar with your expression, so lets see.  

Your question about income comfortability is probably subjective, with wide bands of acceptable risk and expectation. I think the fundies will be happy 0.5% per week, while the casual players happy with 2% per week, while short time traders would be hoping that they can exploit opportunities above that. But as you say, sustainability would need to exist (for the first two examples, anyway).
 
Trouble is, as we have just found out, its not easy when there's not a concise enough consensus of what value/price is, or perceived to be, while its a constantly moving market place.....as LR is going to demonstrate, i hope.    

[bigasic]

Im a tad confused. I know that we are getting 75 percent of the coins. i was under the impression that the 25 percent went to operational expenses. I keep hearing that 25 percent is reinvested. so, could someone explain how it actually works? I just need some clarification....

[Lab_Rat]

Im a tad confused. I know that we are getting 75 percent of the coins. i was under the impression that the 25 percent went to operational expenses. I keep hearing that 25 percent is reinvested. so, could someone explain how it actually works? I just need some clarification....

25% is operational expenses and the remainder of that 25% goes towards reinvestment and management fees.