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Who are the a-holes who always sell it on Mondays and early in the week?
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A social commentary haiku:
back dimples being
caused by Kybella treatment?
...makes no difference
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do not try to time
bitcoin-it's impossible;
just let it succeed
# Sunday haiku
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Bitcoin Buddy is pushing towards 65k maybe it he gets there today ftfy...  |
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a couple of days ago IBIT was at -1.77% to NAV, here goes more than a year 'supply' of fees. You guys are 'playing' not at the level WS is playing at. GBTC price/NAV is VERY stable right now. I attribute it to the fact that they hired Goldman, probably to achieve exactly that. |
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The debate was not interesting, almost nothing to report.
Two guys saying that bitcoin has NO value...not less value, but none.
Eric was very polite, but was repeatedly interrupted.
Eric is a "bitcoin" guy. Mooch is there just for the $$ and trading, but could not explain why he thinks that bitcoin is a store of value apart from the fact that more and more people have bitcoin wallets.
Sometimes, I think that P. Schiff does not even believe his own bs.
Roubini is just a establishment propagandist who cannot concede even when clearly shown to be wrong in an example by Eric.
...and we are positive for the last 7d. Nice!
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...
totally OT:Phil, what do you think the all-time low hashprice will do to the price? Well depends on duration of it. If we stay in the 4 cent a th level long enough miners will shut down a lot. Maybe the death spiral that has been feared happens. Or a simple drop in hash to help miners survive. We saw crazy hash rate drop in april 2021 which dropped prices 60 to 30k. not so sure what will happen but I will be watching. ...price dropped 50% because of the China ban and obvious chinese miners disconnect due to the ban. The ban came first. |
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So apparently BRICS are going to use their gold backed "currency" for international trade. That's China, India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Emirates, and probably more to come.
If the USA are not going to use that asset, I actually see, apart from war, only one alternative for them to satisfy with another currency.. Something better than gold.
A "currency" whose security is backed by energy and that can be transferred without a middleman as digital information, a currency that no one controls.
You all know, as of today, there is only one potent asset of that kind.
I don't say Bitcoin used as the asset for international settlement is going to happen 100%, but it's in the cards.. and quite likely at that in my view. The price of 1 Bitcoin would then be several millions.
Please let this be a reminder.
Yes, sell when you must, but always be aware about the huge potential this invention that you own a part of has.
Not going to happen until much much later, maybe 10-20 years, imho. Countries are too different with too many agendas. |
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Over the last decade, this market has become all too predictable.
The whales now are gunning for sub 50K, and they will eventually crash it down below that.
Why sub 50K?
Because if you look at the chart, that's where they started seriously pumping the market with heavy leverage on 2/25.
They always short it back down to where they started.
It's all an effort to get weak hands to shit their pants and sell, and to knock stupid guppy day tarders out of their long positions.
Easy problem to solve, just HODL.
within ~10%  ...so 46-47K should be "sufficient". could be just for a minute or a few seconds, though. |
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^ trying to pooh-pooh Mr. Market? We should admit that going down 8% after halving (and 19.5% since the ATH a month or so before) is not what most of us expected. Not a biggie, yet, of course, but it is enticing to think about why this is happening. I don't buy into P. Brandt 25% probability that bitcoin has already exhausted it's bull phase as it would be quite pathetic of a bull, but it seems that some macro factors are playing into this: maybe persistent inflation and hence no easing or maybe stagflation (albeit it is ridiculous to expect stagflation when we just started the AI era). I am reading that % of people not paying their bills is increasing in parallel with the credit card debt (1.2 tril in US). maybe the large %% of the population is simply broke (even with almost full employment)  Who knows, maybe we are on a verge of a recession and bitcoin is able to "sniff it out" earlier than other, often manipulated market indicators? |
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The government seems to be at war against crypto at the moment. With Roger being arrested I think that opens up the door for the arrest of individuals and the confiscation of their coins. I wonder how much longer this war will continue escalating. It may end up being a scary thing owning Bitcoin. I’m not even sure what CZ did to get 4 months. I guess he’s lucky to be able to get this behind him somewhat quickly. Don't be too dramatic, imho. He is an expat (renounced US citizenship). Being an expat means that you suppose to pay tax on exit (as if you sold ALL of your assets). They allege that he did not do that, that's all...for now. |
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current status of corn:
 Hong Kong ETF's were a total flop. Womp Womp. But that was obvious, since China won't buy. Now, if China decides to unban Bitcoin... That is a different story. ...it's no use crying for 'spilled' corn?  |
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Martyparty
&martypartymusic
Breaking: Chinese #Bitcoin and #Ethereum ETFs launch 9:30am tomorrow - press conference summary is out - here is the translation.👀☝️
Highlights:
- Expected larger first day than USA
- In kind redemptions and subscriptions
- Wallet to wallet transfers
- Mainland Chinese investors are not allowed to invest in Hong Kong’s cryptocurrency spot ETFs
- Hong Kong issuers DO NOT CARE if US Sec declares Ethereum a security.
In this press briefing, Zhu Haokang, head of digital asset management and family wealth of China Asset Management (Hong Kong), and Wayne Huang, head of OSL ETF and custody business, answered the following questions.
Q: What does China Asset Management (Hong Kong) think about the scale of capital inflows on the first day of listing of Hong Kong cryptocurrency ETFs tomorrow?
Zhu Haokang : I am very confident that the trading scale of the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF on the first day of listing can exceed the trading scale of the first day in the United States. The issuance scale of the 10 US Bitcoin spot ETF issuers on the first day of January 10 this year was 125 million. US dollar, Hong Kong will exceed US$125 million, and China is confident to become the ETF issuer with the largest trading volume on the first day among the three issuers. The details can be revealed to everyone at 9:30 tomorrow morning.
Wayne Huang : There will be an announcement from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at 9:30 tomorrow morning, but OSL has indeed completed its first day of raising funds on OSL today with two funds (including ChinaAMC and another fund that cooperates with us). Judging from the numbers, the transactions are indeed far greater than the capital inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF on its first day of trading.
Q: What is the difference between Spot China Bitcoin ETF and Spot China Ethereum ETF and other ETFs?
Zhu Haokang : The first difference is that compared with the US spot Bitcoin ETF, we have spot and physical subscriptions and redemptions, which the US spot Bitcoin ETF does not have.
In addition, there are two differences between ChinaAMC's products and the other two: ChinaAMC's Hong Kong spot ETF is the only ETF with Hong Kong dollar, US dollar and RMB counters. The second is that in addition to listed shares, we have unlisted shares. These two points are not available in the other two companies.
Q: In addition to Hong Kong, where else have investors participated in the Hong Kong virtual asset spot ETF?
Zhu Haokang : Thanks to the physical subscription method, first of all, investors include Bitcoin mines, etc. They can use their Bitcoin holdings to directly purchase virtual asset spot ETFs in Hong Kong. Secondly, in countries and regions that have not yet issued ETFs outside of Hong Kong, such as Singapore and the Middle East, we have also come into contact with a large number of investors who are extremely interested. In addition, although the current spot Bitcoin ETF market in the United States is very large, compared with the United States, Hong Kong uses cash and physical subscriptions and is open for trading during Asian trading hours, which will still attract many American investors. Finally, several family offices in Asia and overseas are also very interested in spot crypto ETFs.
Q: Is there currently only one securities firm, Victory Securities, qualified to conduct relevant transactions in physical subscriptions?
Wayne Huang : Not only Victory Securities can do physical subscription, but also Huaying Securities with the support of OSL. Currently, there are three securities firms that can do physical subscription, and there will be more follow-up later. Therefore, after the ETF is listed tomorrow, many brokers will follow up, and it is possible that more brokers will participate in the entire ecosystem of virtual asset ETFs in May.
Q: What are the specific operations for physical purchase?
Wayne Huang : Physical subscription is a pioneering initiative for Hong Kong ETFs that is different from US ETFs. First, the brokerage firm needs to upgrade its No. 1 license to be able to handle virtual asset transactions. Investors can transfer their coins to OSL through this brokerage firm, and then finally transfer their equity back to OSL. Transfer it to the fund's custody account and complete the entire process of physical subscription.
Q: What is OSL’s anti-money laundering process in physical subscription? Is it acceptable for the counterparty to be the wallet of the other exchange?
Wayne Huang : First, investors must connect to OSL through a brokerage firm to open an account. We will perform a whitelist verification on the wallet that is about to transfer money to prove that this wallet is held and controlled by the investor. Second, we will verify the investment. The user's private wallet must be screened to see if there are any suspicious transactions in the wallet's past dozens of transactions on the chain. Only wallets that have passed the whitelist verification can allow him to transfer money.
Can a wallet be the wallet of another exchange? In theory, this can be done. If the anti-money laundering rules of the other exchange are consistent with the OSL rules, we can accept the other party's transfer of coins, but we need the other exchange to provide certain customer information.
Brilliant...does it mean that using my btc I can "subscribe" to this ETF? It sounds that the answer is a cautious "yes". Why? Because it can facilitate borrowing against ETF value and reduces the need to sell anything. SEC with it's "cash only" creations will look inferior...maybe this explains the lack of further inflows into the Blackrock's fund. |
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It turned out (so far) that bitcoin did not care too much about "normies" thinking about it as a stock.
For normies, momentum is the only thesis to invest in btc ETF. I don't believe in the 'store of value' thesis for bitcoin for regular investors. Momentum...and that's it.
Maybe btc is losing an 'edge' because of all those ETF "instruments"?
I don't know and, imho, 2X-3X (from 73K) is still within a realm of possibilities (for the next 12-18 mo).
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Who are those 'gnomes' who always mess up trading on Sunday nights?
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Even though a lot of folks are seeming depressed, I think that we still have some more uppity.. 12-18 months.. but yeah, there can be some stifling effect when the actual value propositions of bitcoin (self-custody) are seemingly ongoingly under attack and maybe moreso in recent times.
Bravo! This is the crucial part of the matter, indeed. |
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Somehow, the situation feels similar to the spring-summer of 2017: the whole space undergoes growth while being at a tremendous assault of external factors.
Nobody knows what will transpire-it is really a "give" and "take". In 2017 the situation resolved bullishly, resulting in 10-15X in just a few months.
It is not clear to me that we have a similar situation here, but a bullish resolution is possible.
Sun Tzu said “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”
I guess, bitcoin just have to wait long enough...I just don't see how a geometrically increasing debt situation can be resolved in a positive fashion.
It might take a decade, though.
Unfortunately, I don't have an extra decade in which to contemplate this without taking action, so started my distribution out of the space to something both physical (renovations, RE projects) and spiritual (travel).
Did not start with bitcoin, of course, but I am no longer in the accumulation phase, generally speaking, after a decade or so.
Judging by 2017, I have a terrible timing for my sales...so whatever satoshis I will peel off this year-enjoy the discount when buying your stash!
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