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821  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2023, 12:59:35 AM
Mining is vital to btc survivial but a lot of people can not afford to mine btc. It is centralized because only the rich can afford to mine.

Nobody said that you have to own a machine all by yourself, but, maybe, you should, if you can afford to spend $2000.
It is different around the world, but having $2K does not make you a rich person in OECD countries.
822  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2023, 12:55:45 AM
@jjg...dude, it was all in my original post.
You were referring to a period from 2014 to now and my simple answer is this:

you are talking about investing (dcaing) $47K (nine years) during that period to accumulate 45 btc.
I did not invest anything close to that particular number, but if I take my investments (unevenly spread from 2014-2023) as X and calculate from there, then, in proportion, I got 113-114 BTC accumulated (surely, the actual number is completely different because 47K is a random number as well).
113 is a much bigger number than 45, is it not?
I don't profess an investment acumen, mostly it is due to bulk purchase earlier than later.

mining vs dcaing part is just a cherry on top.

TL;DR dca=average return, buying at the lows OR early (in bitcoin)=better return and if you think that you cannot put yourself to buying at the lows, then do some mining, for crying out loud.
People who bristle at mining have no clue about bitcoin. Bitcoin's heart is block validation via mining. Anything else, and it is NOT the same.
823  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2023, 11:35:33 PM
@jjg...why so angry?

mining (starting when price is low and machines are cheap) beats dcaing hands down-as shown in my example.
bulk purchase does the same if you apply some brain power.

I don't really divide people into "normies' and , what, super-normies?
It is obvious to anyone than the earlier you bought, the better.
Going forward, I still submit that mining beats dca hands down (and provided the numbers to prove it).

Some people prefer investing in index funds and for majority it is better not to dart in and out of stocks, but some people (smaller %) can make more money in concentrated positions.
Same for bitcoin: dca is a valid strategy that is inferior for a smaller number of people and superior for most (but not all) people.
I, personally, found it (dca) tedious, but that's just me.
824  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2023, 12:48:13 AM
$jjg...As promised, here are some numbers:

If i had bulk invested $47K instead of DCA since 2013-2014, using buys at exactly my actual timing, I would have gotten about 113-114 BTC vs 45btc (dcaing by your estimate).
Please...I did not invest 47K (could be any other number), so don't start counting it as my "basis", I simply used the number in your example.

But, here is a more pertinent number: with mining started in Nov 2019 and lasting until about March 2022.
2.3 btc mined with the average price of $18.17K/btc. Revenue about 41.8K
If, instead, you would have spend the exact same $$ (say, 42K) on DCA during the same time period, doing it on a weekly basis, then Excel gives me a weekly average for btc of $29.2K and, therefore, 1.43 BTC accumulated.
2.3 is >>1.43
btw, my previous assertions for averages were all based on weekly btc prices put into Excel (sorry, don't care about dcabtc website).
You can ask me: how come the btc mined price average is lower. It is because when you mine, you always mine more in the beginning and less later (due to difficulty increase).

TL;DR bulk purchase earlier wins (obviously), but don't neglect mining, especially if you start a new round when btc price is low and price of machines is low as well. Imho, peeeps should listen to what phil is saying about when is a good time to start mining and or purchase mining machines.
825  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 04, 2023, 01:49:19 AM
I don't know what the fuck is coming up, but it doesn't seem good.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/us-credit-card-debt-jumps-18point5percent-and-hits-a-record-930point6-billion-.html

FTA:
Quote
- Total credit card debt reached a record $930.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the latest credit report from TransUnion.
- As balance rise, so have delinquencies, which is “something to watch,” says TransUnion’s Michele Raneri.

One reason is that in Q4 there were a lot of cc offers with 18 mo no interest, extending into May-June 2024.
People treat it as, essentially, "free money" and forget that they would have to pay, eventually.
826  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 03, 2023, 03:54:16 AM
Hmmmm...da f-k?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4574872-bitcoin-new-war-beginning



827  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2023, 12:57:09 AM
^^^first try..."Buy by the barrel gorilla ladders?"  Grin  Cheesy

second "ape into bitcoin ladder by the barrel"
828  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2023, 11:30:51 PM
@jjg..sorry, I am too "beat up" at work this week to post numbers, will try to sum it up sometime during the weekend and/or on Fri...
829  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2023, 11:23:02 PM
@jjg..well, $19,798 is pretty much 20K in my book (according to rounding rules), but it is a minor point....that you seem to be awfully sensitive about.

BTW, the average price of btc between Dec 2017 and today is also quite surprising (not!) $20.3K...how does this reflect on DCA vs bulk purchase debate?
Basically, you could have DCAed weekly since 5 years ago (or 260 weeks) and your average would have been more than btc price just a month ago (only 4wk or 1.5% of the putative DCA time).
This shows, in my opinion, that better strategy in bitcoin is to have a large stash of cash and to wait for more than 60-70% decline from the recent ATH, then pounce at once or in a few big "gulps".
Rounding rules? that is not how it works in economics. Either something has hit $20000 or it has not. You cannot round up values rounding up is only done to estimate something but is not used for speculation because it would skew the numbers to much and any speculation or prediction based on rounding up will be greatly wrong even if they have a good argument. Do not round up unless you are estimating small numbers when it is big numbers like 20000 you will be greatly out of any prediction or analysis.

economics? 19798 vs 20000 is about 1.1% difference, so, if you don't perform many additional calculations, approximation is fine.
For example, my thesis was that "If in about 5 years (early 2028) bitcoin is 25.5k (now it is 23k vs 20K in Dec 2017, so a similar small rise with lots of down and up volatility in between), would you be content?"

if you replace 20K by 19798, then the appreciation since Dec 2017 until 23K (which was the price at the time of original post) would be 16.17% vs 15% in my calculation.
Perhaps, i should have wrote $26.7K instead of 25.5K in 2028, but it is still within 5%.
The main point was not the exact number , but how we would perceive the situation if it repeats itself in the next 5 years.
BTW, bitcoin price is not an absolute and it did hit 20K and slightly above on some major exchanges.
@jjg thinks that we somehow made an explicit promise to only quote bitstamp, but I don't acknowledge it (no promise on my part).

830  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2023, 03:16:39 AM
@jjg..well, $19,798 is pretty much 20K in my book (according to rounding rules), but it is a minor point....that you seem to be awfully sensitive about.

BTW, the average price of btc between Dec 2017 and today is also quite surprising (not!) $20.3K...how does this reflect on DCA vs bulk purchase debate?
Basically, you could have DCAed weekly since 5 years ago (or 260 weeks) and your average would have been more than btc price just a month ago (only 4wk or 1.5% of the putative DCA time).
This shows, in my opinion, that better strategy in bitcoin is to have a large stash of cash and to wait for more than 60-70% decline from the recent ATH, then pounce at once or in a few big "gulps".
831  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2023, 02:09:51 AM
Honestly, I just cannot comprehend why we are still below a $tril in mcap, considering everything that happened already (gigantic money printing, 500tril assets market cap, etc, etc.).

Well, thats simple and people seem to have just ignored it as it was an inconvenient truth.


Manipulated DERIVATIVES.





This piece of shit got the Ok from the FED to fuck us and everyone rolled over and popped their asses in the air like good little girls.

well, we are trying to ignore this inconvenient 'truth" because admitting it or rather submitting to it would mean that we are under their foot, maybe forever.
I don't want say that it is an ultimate truth, but acknowledge some nonzero possibility of this, just as you do, apparently.
832  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2023, 12:10:05 AM
I have a question...

If in about 5 years (early 2028) bitcoin is 25.5k (now it is 23k vs 20K in Dec 2017, so a similar small rise with lots of down and up volatility in between), would you be content?
I might be, but would be very surprised at such stability.
Honestly, I just cannot comprehend why we are still below a $tril in mcap, considering everything that happened already (gigantic money printing, 500tril assets market cap, etc, etc.).

Perhaps, bitcoin diffuses into the collective psyche quite slowly, but afterwards stays permanently entrenched in someone's mind.

Oh on topic.  


it's a funny little snippet considering that rant about vests and governors, ain't it, phil?

i kid, i kid  Cheesy
833  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2023, 11:49:42 PM
I have a question...

If in about 5 years (early 2028) bitcoin is 25.5k (now it is 23k vs 20K in Dec 2017, so a similar small rise with lots of down and up volatility in between), would you be content?
I might be, but would be very surprised at such stability.
Honestly, I just cannot comprehend why we are still below a $tril in mcap, considering everything that happened already (gigantic money printing, 500tril assets market cap, etc, etc.).

Perhaps, bitcoin diffuses into the collective psyche quite slowly, but afterwards stays permanently entrenched in someone's mind.
834  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2023, 11:40:01 PM
Well then, was math discovered or invented?

it depends...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/is-the-universe-made-of-math-excerpt/
835  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2023, 04:17:06 AM
watched first 6 episodes of Andor...pretty, pretty good (1st is the weakest, don't let it discourage you)..the vibes of ww2 french resistance movies, "The Guns of Navarone", etc....in space.

bitcoin derped here a bit..no matter.
836  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2023, 10:11:35 PM
Bitcoin price seems to be increasing with time but we cannot confirm a bull until some more resistances are broken. specially the wall at 25200 and 31900.

There is no wall.
837  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1923 newspaper blurb. on: January 29, 2023, 10:09:39 PM

Maybe some people could "see" the future a little bit, vaguely.

Maybe it's even us, who got into bitcoin relatively early... we felt something about it...

most certainly, and I am not even kidding.
838  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1923 newspaper blurb. on: January 29, 2023, 09:55:47 PM

wild, if not a fake.

EDIT: inflation in 1923 was 1.79%. If steady for 100 years, it results in 5.89 denominator for the currency real value.
However, official inflation since 1923 was 2.9% on average, which results in 17.43 denominator, meaning that each current $ is worth (has buying power) of 6c in 1923.
eggs were 25c/dozen in 1923 (at least one reference).
therefore, dozen eggs "should" be 0.25X17.43=$4.38 vs the "dream" value of $10.
I can find eggs at $3.6-4 per dozen if you buy 36 (not jumbo), so it is quite remarkably accurate.
839  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2023, 06:48:13 PM
Custodia bank (the one focused on bitcoin, etc.) is denied fed reserve membership;
https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/custodia-bank-fed-membership-application-denied-federal-reserve-board

I am not sure what this is all about.
Fed is protecting their turf?
Shows that bureaucracy can always prevent something just by being slow...instead of the typical 5 days, the application was, apparently, pending for 18 mo.
They don't want competition to NY fin center from Wyoming?
840  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2023, 06:15:39 PM
Hey some Sunday morning FUD

https://www.yahoo.com/news/odds-very-high-u-military-150008848.html

'Odds 'very high' of U.S. military conflict with China, top Republican says'
<snip>

hopefully, some bs...but somewhere there I found this linky:

https://www.yahoo.com/now/why-more-physicists-starting-think-045308127.html

"All is One"....hmmm
so...bitcoin and us is the same or we are bitcoin (in a way)...groovy!
Ordering the book...should be a fun read.
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