804
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2023, 11:23:02 PM
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@jjg..well, $19,798 is pretty much 20K in my book (according to rounding rules), but it is a minor point....that you seem to be awfully sensitive about.
BTW, the average price of btc between Dec 2017 and today is also quite surprising (not!) $20.3K...how does this reflect on DCA vs bulk purchase debate? Basically, you could have DCAed weekly since 5 years ago (or 260 weeks) and your average would have been more than btc price just a month ago (only 4wk or 1.5% of the putative DCA time). This shows, in my opinion, that better strategy in bitcoin is to have a large stash of cash and to wait for more than 60-70% decline from the recent ATH, then pounce at once or in a few big "gulps".
Rounding rules? that is not how it works in economics. Either something has hit $20000 or it has not. You cannot round up values rounding up is only done to estimate something but is not used for speculation because it would skew the numbers to much and any speculation or prediction based on rounding up will be greatly wrong even if they have a good argument. Do not round up unless you are estimating small numbers when it is big numbers like 20000 you will be greatly out of any prediction or analysis. economics? 19798 vs 20000 is about 1.1% difference, so, if you don't perform many additional calculations, approximation is fine. For example, my thesis was that "If in about 5 years (early 2028) bitcoin is 25.5k (now it is 23k vs 20K in Dec 2017, so a similar small rise with lots of down and up volatility in between), would you be content?" if you replace 20K by 19798, then the appreciation since Dec 2017 until 23K (which was the price at the time of original post) would be 16.17% vs 15% in my calculation. Perhaps, i should have wrote $26.7K instead of 25.5K in 2028, but it is still within 5%. The main point was not the exact number , but how we would perceive the situation if it repeats itself in the next 5 years. BTW, bitcoin price is not an absolute and it did hit 20K and slightly above on some major exchanges. @jjg thinks that we somehow made an explicit promise to only quote bitstamp, but I don't acknowledge it (no promise on my part).
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805
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2023, 03:16:39 AM
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@jjg..well, $19,798 is pretty much 20K in my book (according to rounding rules), but it is a minor point....that you seem to be awfully sensitive about.
BTW, the average price of btc between Dec 2017 and today is also quite surprising (not!) $20.3K...how does this reflect on DCA vs bulk purchase debate? Basically, you could have DCAed weekly since 5 years ago (or 260 weeks) and your average would have been more than btc price just a month ago (only 4wk or 1.5% of the putative DCA time). This shows, in my opinion, that better strategy in bitcoin is to have a large stash of cash and to wait for more than 60-70% decline from the recent ATH, then pounce at once or in a few big "gulps".
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806
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2023, 02:09:51 AM
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Honestly, I just cannot comprehend why we are still below a $tril in mcap, considering everything that happened already (gigantic money printing, 500tril assets market cap, etc, etc.).
Well, thats simple and people seem to have just ignored it as it was an inconvenient truth. Manipulated DERIVATIVES.This piece of shit got the Ok from the FED to fuck us and everyone rolled over and popped their asses in the air like good little girls. well, we are trying to ignore this inconvenient 'truth" because admitting it or rather submitting to it would mean that we are under their foot, maybe forever. I don't want say that it is an ultimate truth, but acknowledge some nonzero possibility of this, just as you do, apparently.
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807
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: February 01, 2023, 12:10:05 AM
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I have a question...
If in about 5 years (early 2028) bitcoin is 25.5k (now it is 23k vs 20K in Dec 2017, so a similar small rise with lots of down and up volatility in between), would you be content? I might be, but would be very surprised at such stability. Honestly, I just cannot comprehend why we are still below a $tril in mcap, considering everything that happened already (gigantic money printing, 500tril assets market cap, etc, etc.).
Perhaps, bitcoin diffuses into the collective psyche quite slowly, but afterwards stays permanently entrenched in someone's mind.
Oh on topic. it's a funny little snippet considering that rant about vests and governors, ain't it, phil? i kid, i kid
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808
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 31, 2023, 11:49:42 PM
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I have a question...
If in about 5 years (early 2028) bitcoin is 25.5k (now it is 23k vs 20K in Dec 2017, so a similar small rise with lots of down and up volatility in between), would you be content? I might be, but would be very surprised at such stability. Honestly, I just cannot comprehend why we are still below a $tril in mcap, considering everything that happened already (gigantic money printing, 500tril assets market cap, etc, etc.).
Perhaps, bitcoin diffuses into the collective psyche quite slowly, but afterwards stays permanently entrenched in someone's mind.
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812
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Economy / Speculation / Re: 1923 newspaper blurb.
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on: January 29, 2023, 10:09:39 PM
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Maybe some people could "see" the future a little bit, vaguely. Maybe it's even us, who got into bitcoin relatively early... we felt something about it... most certainly, and I am not even kidding.
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813
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Economy / Speculation / Re: 1923 newspaper blurb.
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on: January 29, 2023, 09:55:47 PM
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wild, if not a fake. EDIT: inflation in 1923 was 1.79%. If steady for 100 years, it results in 5.89 denominator for the currency real value. However, official inflation since 1923 was 2.9% on average, which results in 17.43 denominator, meaning that each current $ is worth (has buying power) of 6c in 1923. eggs were 25c/dozen in 1923 (at least one reference). therefore, dozen eggs "should" be 0.25X17.43=$4.38 vs the "dream" value of $10. I can find eggs at $3.6-4 per dozen if you buy 36 (not jumbo), so it is quite remarkably accurate.
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817
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 26, 2023, 04:09:30 AM
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This doesn't need to stay up ad finem.
Oh no. Can't ruin the sanctity of your back-room circle jerks, huh? Hillarious. El Duderino *KNEW* I was John Titor from back in the chat, and decided to pile-on. Showed his true colors. A pure hedonist. Could not ever be friends with someone that shallow. I also *KNEW* at one time but I forgot. Maybe it's just that your alts aren't as unforgettable as you Mr. BobLawblaw. yep, I can hardly remember all 'regulars'...sorry, no memory left for sock-puppets, girlfriends/boyfriends and their "clones". On the other hand, why AI thinks that almost all hot girls have shiners?
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819
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 24, 2023, 04:48:01 AM
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Hahahaha .. fair enough.. .. I had to go back and merit dee doodz for such subtle wittenings.
And by the way.. yeah, I might have clicked my "send" merit button too soon too.. especially when thinking about "stable BTC" prices, as if that were an actual thing that any of us should consider amongst any kind of "meaningful" high level of probability that it is even worth mentioning... yeah... sure, "stable" prices coudl end up happening, but largely seems like an outlier event that is hardly worth mentioning it.. unless we are somehow obsessed with focusing our mental energies on "fringe" cases and then treating them as if they were anywhere even close to 50 or greater odds of actually taking place.
<a big snip> JJG mining sets the floor price. I have followed for years and bottoms come in just about right on spot to : 5-6 cent power and top of the line gear. basically we hit that in november . I 100% agree that mining does not set the top of the bull run. But time and time again mining is what set the foundation level for the bottom. please note flash crashes are excluded as the have been followed by v style recovery. 1. Approximately..and typically one month or month and a half of declining difficulty sets the bottom (during usual markets, not a calamity). 2. I still hold readily deploy-able funds to buy the flash crash or a sudden dip...it is much more my style vs DCAing, but to each their own.
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820
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: January 24, 2023, 04:38:09 AM
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It's funny, but it seems that I can report that bitcoin changed my mentality. I used to zoom in and out of investments and 1-2 years was "long term" for me (especially since after 12mo it is long term tax treatment in US). Lo and behold, now that I used to hodl bitcoin, I also tend to do the same with stonks, sometimes even against my best judgment. Not sure how to deal with it..maybe by randomly selling small amounts of weak performers, haha.
TL;DR bitcoin hodling changes you
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