Bitcoin Forum
April 26, 2024, 01:08:32 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 ... 511 »
421  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2023, 02:49:57 AM
I am curious: for people with diabetes, does it help or hurt to drink non-sugary hard liquors?
For example: does vodka drinking affect A1C in any way, positively or negatively?
422  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 17, 2023, 08:41:23 PM
frog jumps into the pond he said....
my projection of that image to WO:

the coin is silent
buddy jumps into the fray
phil cares about it


#haiku
423  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2023, 09:39:59 PM
Going through the last 18 hours of WO reminds me of this:





This reminds me of aliens in the "Edge of tomorrow" flick (with T. Cruise and E. Blunt).
It was not bad at all, better than expected.
424  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2023, 02:43:22 AM
Mostly PSA:

I got everything apart burying ledger under 10ft, since it is just a $50-70 hunk of metal, nothing else, unless you want to transact, but then digging it out is somewhat sub-optimal, imho.

Plus, you can just throw it away since, as everyone knows, bitcoin ain't inside the said ledger...that's what makes the whole concept so 'alien' to newbs (present company excluded, of course, with no disrespect to OGs).
425  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 15, 2023, 09:26:54 PM
How can BNB still be worth so much after all that carry on this year?

Surely it should be way down the top 100 shitecoins list.

Market cap of $32 billion. How is this possible?

Shitcoins are truly shit.
 Roll Eyes
I think that something that is practically worthless can have such great value only if the man behind it all manages to convince millions that it is actually worth something. Considering that a lot of people have a very positive opinion of CZ, and consider him to be some kind of messiah who fights against the system, it's not surprising that he managed to sell his shitcoin to them as something that really has value.

In addition, marketcap is something that is the result of circulating supply times the price, and when you have almost 154 million of these tokens at a price of $200+, you get a very nice amount that then deceives people even more. I see a bigger problem in the people who buy it than in the fact that such a thing exists at all.

For sure I don't want to pump any shitcoins, and I hardly give any shits about the BNB that I own, and I am thinking somewhere around early 2018, I opened a Binance account because I had gotten kicked off of Bitfinex and maybe some other exchanges, so when I first signed up for Binance, it was clear at that time, that if you used BNB to pay fees when you traded, you would ONLY have to pay 0.25% for any trading fee rather than 0.5%.. something like that.  So for me it seemed to be a no brainer to buy some BNB, and so I bought a token amount of BNB (for around $13.50 per BNB) that I thought might last me 2 - 3 years at most for paying my trading fees.. and over the past 5.5 years, I had used about 30% of the BNB that I had purchased when I had originally opened the Binance account that I thought would have had been spent down to zero way before now.

I also recall that at some point during 2021, I was telling one of my nocoiner (bitcoin naysaying) relatives that I did not give any shits about any of the shitcoins that I held, and I looked at my account balances to see that the value of my BNB holdings had gone up around 40x from the amount that I had spent to buy them, and my no coiner was amazed by the amount that I told him I give no shits about whether it goes to zero or not.

Right now, when I look at my BNB balance, I see that it is around 11.5x the value that I payed for them, and I don't give any shits.  I am still using them for the same purpose as previously, and I see no reason to sell them, and I don't give any shits if they go up or down... so yeah, they could end up going down, and they are around 1/4 the value that they had been at the time that I was talking with my nocoiner relative, and my position has not really changed...

I have a few other shitcoins that I hold that have done similar kinds of things, and I don't give any shits about any of them either, and all of my shitcoins are still around less than 0.5% of all of my bitcoin portfolio holdings... which around 99.5% is bitcoin and cash, and the cash portion is currently just under 2%..

which would make my total "crypto" holdings to be around:

97.5% bitcoin
 
2% cash  (by the way about 3/4 of the "cash" is USDT)

0.25% BNB

0.25% other shitcoins not named BNB

And, just in case you might be reading me wrongedly.. fuck shitcoins.


If someone still has pre Aug 2017 bitcoin, then they also have 1:1 of BCH, BSV, etc., tucked inside such "old" UTXO bitcoin.
426  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 13, 2023, 03:14:49 AM
A portion of US population is rapidly going bankrupt:

Average mortgage is $2300/mo
Average rent is $1700/mo
Average household income is $70K (which is probably about $55K or less after taxes, give or take).
See some affordability numbers here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqPcil1HX-Y

Average Social security payment for seniors is $1700, so if they rent, then they have no money left, literally...a straight path to homelessness:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/why-more-baby-boomers-are-homeless-2d2b913b

For younger people: $1700 rent (and much more in some cities) plus $300-400 student loan=$2100/mo=25K a year out of average 54K (44k after taxes) salary for a 25-34 year old.
The result: not much left after buying groceries and a car payment, maybe almost nothing, and this is in a supposedly richest country in the world.

Conclusion: it looks like the society will be changing soon...much less prosperity, more suffering.
Can bitcoin strive when large swathes of the population become desperate?
Maybe it can (citadels?), if elites would choose it for capital preservation, but I sincerely doubt truly mass participation by the rest of the populace as they simply don't have money to invest while living paycheck to paycheck (apparently 61% are those).

The current trends will soon make a huge chasm between the top 5-10% and the rest.
Imho, the society would start to resemble the preindustrial (feudal) age: almost everyone would be either rich or poor with almost no middle class.
Unfortunately, bitcoin cannot prevent this and it could even hasten the transition through no fault of its own: everything else would just sink and bitcoin would remain.
427  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 09, 2023, 02:16:21 AM
It's not like we are all posting a lot of great content.

buddy is like a "heat death" of the universe...boring as heck...when taken in large doses.

That said, most peeps on WO seem to be just counting time either to the end of September (more daring ones) or to Jan-February (more conservative ones).

Btw, the same 'boring' markets seem to occur elsewhere as well, which typically does not portend well.
Some entity bought several thou VIX 180 Feb 24 call contracts today.
Granted, they probably also sold some at the lower number to balance the trade, but still...even in 2008 VIX only went to about 89 at the maximum.
428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2023, 09:11:42 PM
Starting a strategy right now is likely going to depend on what you have going on with your own particulars, so if we assume someone might have a $100k investment portfolio that s/he has built up over 10 years, and then s/he already has $10k that s/he is willing to invest into BTC, but then maybe s/he also has around $1k per month of extra cash that is coming in that s/he is able to invest into bitcoin, so in the next 6 months, s/he has $16k that can go into BTC.

How is such a hypothetical person going to get BTC exposure?  maybe 1/3 right away, 1/3 DCA and 1/3  buying on dips would be a kind of practical default rather than just putting $10k into BTC right away .. but the $10k right away and then the $250 per week divided between DCA and buying on dips is not a bad idea either, except spending the $10k available right away into BTC does not leave any dry powder to be able to buy BTC on dips in the event that dips might happen from here.


I have absolutely no prob with 1/3 lump sum, 1/3 DCA and 1/3 buying on the dips strategy.
My only relevant point is that while an asset is in an exponential growth phase, it pays to be earlier, literally.
However, this statement does not include the psychological enforcement of someone's conviction that may come from DCAing.
Still, I would say that DCAing when it is going down could have quite an opposite psychological effect as we have seen here in one "famous" case.
429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2023, 08:52:46 PM
I used to like this handle and his tweets used to be informative but lately I have noticed he’s just tweeting nonsense and mostly self praise and promoting his YouTube channel.

Does his claim beat DCA too???

He’s ignoring that bitcoin isn't a get rich quick scheme anymore; now it's a don't get poor slowly strategy.

 
https://x.com/100trillionusd/status/1675822934785511426

Well lets see

2012 may is six months early close of may price was 5.14
2012 nov is ½ ing 12.54
2013  is skipped 12 months would be better. than 18 it was 1129 on close
2014 march 18 months 457

so about 89x six months prior to 18 months after.

but over 200x six months prior to 12 months after.

not sure about next two jump ups.

but I will post.

I think this was good .

Jan 31 2016 368 six months before 1/2 ing
July     2016  650 the 1/2 ing
July     2017  2518 12 months past the 1/2 ing 6.8x better
Jan      2018  10,108 18 months past 1/2 ing  27.4x better

so
first 1/2 ing the 12 month after the 1/2 ing sell won.
second 1/2 ing the 18 month after 1/2ing sell won.

Dec 2019 7,194
May 2020 8,672
May 2021  57,714
Nov 2021  61,320

so
first 1/2 ing the 12 month after the 1/2 ing sell won.
second 1/2 ing the 18 month after 1/2ing sell won.
third 1/2 ing the 18 month after 1/2 ing sell won but almost a tie.

Basically his advice is not as accurate as saying

buy 6 months before
sell 12 months after

because the 2103 rally was 200x if you did that.

ie in dollars 1 turned into 200 .



Buy now you are 8 maybe 7 months away 224 days

according to this


https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/

FYI: his chart doesn't even have taxes, so those numbers are not "real" (at least for US) anyway.
430  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2023, 05:42:16 PM
I used to like this handle and his tweets used to be informative but lately I have noticed he’s just tweeting nonsense and mostly self praise and promoting his YouTube channel.

Does his claim beat DCA too???

He’s ignoring that bitcoin isn't a get rich quick scheme anymore; now it's a don't get poor slowly strategy.

 
https://x.com/100trillionusd/status/1675822934785511426

planB is a 'quant', so he tries to find quantitative patterns in the past that could be pointing to some possible future, but, as Yogi Berra said: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

The bottom line, he could be right or wrong, it's hard to know.
Still, the method of buying in 'bulk' early beats DCA, as it was proven again and again.
I understand that DCA is mentally attractive, but it is an inferior method, clearly, especially for something that might still be at the exponential growth phase.
431  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 03, 2023, 01:26:53 AM
A historical fact:

On Sep 2, 2013, bitcoin was $144 (if you like either the last or the first day of the mo, then on Aug 31, 2013 it was $141 and on Sep 1, $146).
Therefore, in 10 years (until Sep 1, 2023) bitcoin went up 25983/146=178X or 17797%.

If bitcoin is best described by the exponential function in the next 10 years, we shall "expect" btc to be at around $4264084/btc (~$4.26 mil, give or take) by Sep 1, 2033 with the total mcap of about 90 tril: theoretically, this is a number that could happen.

It is entirely possible that we will be transitioning to a non-exponential curve (log-log, S-shaped, etc), but I just wanted to have that number above posted (as a possibility).
From the September 2013 perspective the current price of close to $26K is way beyond what most people were expecting back then (go and check messages on btctalk from that time).

I wonder how many people will be either here or in bitcoin 10 years from now and what the bitcoin $ "number" would be?

Thoughts/predictions?
432  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2023, 09:49:52 PM
I had a strange test
in a night dream and I failed;
where is bitcoin there?


# a "premature" Sunday haiku
433  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2023, 02:58:48 PM
Lets be real here. The SEC is going to fight hard not to approve anything Bitcoin because it's highly likely they'll be a target for blame in the collapse of the USD that's coming.

Beavis (or Butthead?): "you said "hard"....hehehe."

Those who deny us will be swept by the "waves" of history, no doubt.
You can only fight what people actually want only for some time.
Who says?
"Prohibition"
434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2023, 03:54:05 AM

I told you guys they are going to stall until they cannot stall anymore. Now is the time to buy up cheap coin. When that barrel bursts, ETFs will come flowing one after another.
Zoom out and stop panicking. Roll Eyes

Who's panicking?
It makes perfect sense for them to delay so some "players" can load up to the halving.

Btw, someone (@jbreher?) said that GLD did not sell off after the ETF approval, but went up.
That is almost true as it declined from 44.4 to 41.3 (about 7% ) between Nov 2004 and Feb 2005, then did not go much up (if any) until about 9-10 mo later, if I researched it correctly.
Not sure what to expect from bitcoin ETF. Imho, if not much appreciation before the decision, then there will be no appreciable selloff.
In any case, I expect prices at least 3-4 times higher (and maybe much more) from the moment ETF is approved to 3-3.5 years later (in comparison, it took GLD 7 years to 4X).
435  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2023, 10:10:34 PM
I think more people got liquidated going long during this small drop then we’re liquidated being short through the jump in price the other day. This shows that people are still taking ridiculous bets and have an over bullish view of the current market. Stop trading with leverage and start stacking unless you want to be left behind.

In the last 10 years, that I have been with the company (Bitcoin). The most telltale sign of price upward movements is bitcoin moving back to the exchanges. Until we see the large volumes and these movements....plan on going sideways for a bit.

This says that it was true until Q1 2020, and at least partially wrong since then:

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29045/bitcoin-exchange-balance-total


436  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2023, 09:10:57 PM
@croesus_BTC
Big players on Wall Street don't want to telegraph their intent.

But to get an ETF approved, you have to formally signal your plans months in advance.

That's what BlackRock has done.

You have an opportunity to front run them.

Wake up.  This is your #Bitcoin  opportunity
https://x.com/croesus_btc/status/1696960041067204640


@Ashcryptoreal
US printing trillion for next 2 years

Grayscale & ripple won against SEC

Blackrock and many other companies
with trillions of dollars have filed for
Bitcoin ETF.

$100k BTC is coming in next 1-2 years
Just be patient and don’t less these
bears scare you. Avoid leverage
https://x.com/ashcryptoreal/status/1696963847473471513


@BitcoinMagazine
JUST IN - Bloomberg Senior Macro Strategist: "The inevitable approval of #Bitcoin  ETFs in the US is moving closer." 🇺🇸
https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1696939070281089154




Yes, and your described target is very conservative, but I am quite sure that they are buying ahead of that and then will distribute at 3-5 times higher prices to the "crowd" that will buy on approval.
At least, that is what I expect. So far, absolutely every "large" approval of anything in bitcoin was always a sell (at least a few short months later and sometimes almost immediately): futures, coinbase starting trading, Musk buying, etc., etc. Paradoxically, Silk road bust was a buy and not a sell, contrary to the expectations back then.
437  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 28, 2023, 11:28:32 PM
nutilah the man
is he going stop the spam
or will j.. prevail






Please note that j.. is a 1 syllable abbreviation for jjg as I wanted my 5-7-5 haiku.

This one letter code already been known …. Wink

 Yeah those who know, know Jay.


Naaah I mean the use of one letter to mean something that otherwise wouldn’t fit in the haiku Cheesy

I could have done jay but wanted to show it was jjg

what's all the ruckus?
imho, positives outweigh the negatives in a big picture, but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

bitcoin is flat, though...who of OGs is the most responsible for it? [...looking at the screen menacingly]
There is no answer, but in the old old times, when there was no rain, they always found a witch/warlock whodunit and sacrifice her/him for the "greater good".
Sometimes it 'worked', too.
438  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 27, 2023, 03:25:16 AM
I heard Bitcoin supplies in exchanges fell at a 5-year low.
Is that a good sign? Are people taking out their Bitcoin from exchanges?
More scarcity means more value  Smiley

It's not that simple.
Sure, people hodling in their own wallets is generally a good thing, but if there is no ample liquidity on exchanges, then a small sell order would trigger many people's stop losses, resulting in an avalanche of sells (in a bear market). Try to sell enough to buy something "serious" on some little illiquid exchange and the price will move quite a bit (locally).
439  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 27, 2023, 12:03:42 AM

 Grin
sorry, pal, I am waking up too late to do anything else, have to drive 30-35 min to the darned place.
I agree with the sentiment, though.

I will need to do a video for you.

It involves a Stanley Stainless steel 1 qt or 2 qt thermos.
Properly filtered water.
Perk the coffee.
Strain the perked coffee through a proper cotton clothe filter in to the thermos.

Then go to bed.

Wake up in the morning grab that thermos and pour a warm cup out. Storing coffee overnight will not degenerate flavor as you are not heating it.

The coffee will not be stupid hot have it that way or nuke in microwave a bit.say 30 to 60 seconds.

Never
Never
Never
Never use instant coffee.

My method allows no waste of time in the morning and you will look forward to drinking the thermos you made before bed.

BTW you can also make a damn good omlette at bedtime and nuke it for breakfast .

Last night I made a half pound of mushrooms a bell pepper an onion 6 jumbo eggs a small piece of steak (4oz) 2 oz of biltong jerky and some imported provolone cheese. As soon as if was down I place the closed frying pan in the oven on a silicone mat and went to bed. I woke up nuked my coffee and my eggs and was eating a hot breakfast in under 3 minutes nuke time. got in the car and drove to the mine.

WORKED MOST OF TODAY AND I AM STILL NOT VERY HUNGRY DUE TO THE MONSTER SIZE BREAKFAST I ATE.



Alright, alright, will try to follow, but you fellas take this 'issue' way too seriously plus my post was mostly about inflation, ha ha.

Everybody's taste sensations are different...honestly, my possibly "mutant" taste receptors do not distinguish instant coffee from the freshly brewed one and that's the truth.
I could distinguish latte from espresso, but that's about it.

Same, more or less for wines-went to "tastings" several times-all red wines taste more or less the same to me (with a slight variation).
When the 'expert' was talking about the "body" or the taste of wine being "bold" or "oaky" or "earthy" or something else, I usually nod, but inside I am saying something like "really?" to myself.
I can easily distinguish 'fruity' and 'non-fruity', but that's about it.
But, hey, this results in myself enjoying almost all merlot(s) and cabernet(s) above $15-20/bottle AND a grade of above 4.0 in the Wine app.
Cheers!
440  Other / Politics & Society / Re: NASA admits climate change occurs because of changes in Earth's solar orbit... on: August 26, 2023, 09:24:51 PM
People are just crazy. They’ll swear to anything if it fits with their beliefs. Most liberals probably think Mars is cooler than the Earth because there isn’t any pollution on Mars. It really isn’t brain surgery. The farther from the giant flaming ball we’re circling in space you get, the cooler the temperature. That’s the main factor.

Not entirely. The temperature on the surface of Venus is much higher than it should have been due to it's distance from the Sun.
The cause: currently Venus has an atmosphere with 96.5% CO2, 93 bars (~93X of earth) atm pressure and the temperature on the surface is a "balmy" 467oC (872F).
None of this could be "easily" explained by it's distance from the Sun.

Equally, Sun's luminosity increased 30% in the last 4 bil years or so, yet the temperature on the surface remained largely stable, periodic glaciation and warming notwithstanding.
The most common explanation is the presence of life.
Biosphere, so far, was able to buffer the increase in Sun's luminosity, but it is predicted that this buffering capacity will run out in about 1 bil years as the Sun's luminosity continues to increase.
The cause: relative short duration of the lifespan of G-type stars, like our Sun, and its eventual transformation into a red giant.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 ... 511 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!