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601  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2023, 05:15:16 PM
Some big trader talking about the 'fiscal gap'  the thing that will likely drive down Dollar into oblivion possibly: https://youtu.be/53wThFFuOqU?t=464   We can hope for otherwise but a turn around seems unlikely and no indication of any attempt to properly pay off debt or balance fiscal budget is there by any part of politics.
     A glacier can move is how I view it, its so slow we cant see it but it matters and its not really possible to stop thats the weight of changes most probable imo.   BTC has a surprisingly long term underlying movement to it a bit like this, I think they relate.  This trader doesnt and he doesnt think 40% inflation is possible, I'd like to inform him its not only possible its most probable but thats my opinion hopefully wrong.

BTC has a negative price channel short term and more importantly longer term is challenging now attempting to recover above the 200 week average.   If we dont slip below Feb lows, its still positive trend overall.

I saw that interview. I think that he is an "entitlement opponent", so to speak.
He basically thinks that with the growth of interest rates and entitlement outlays, we would have to either increase taxes 40% or decrease spending 36% in a few decades.
However, when boomers hear this 'talk', they have blood coming out of their eyes... and they vote.
Why? Because they PAID into Social security and Medicare out of their pockets (and doubly so if you are/were a business owner/LLC guy).
Even without a consideration that gov had our money for decades with nothing to show for it as they just spent it at whim, it would take quite a few years to exhaust whatever I literally put in there, so Stan can shove it.
602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2023, 04:02:24 PM
Blackrock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week might stand a better chance than previous attempts by other fund managers thanks to the promise of a “surveillance-sharing agreement” between exchanges.
On page 36 of the Nasdaq (where the proposed ETF will be listed) 19b-4 filing, it's stated that to mitigate against market manipulation, Nasdaq will be brought in to enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement with an operator of a spot trading platform for Bitcoin (BTC).

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/06/16/blackrock-may-have-found-way-to-get-sec-approval-for-spot-bitcoin-etf/

-------
“If the Blackrock ETF does get approved, the real winner here is going to be $GBTC,” Adam Cochran, a partner at venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, wrote in part of Twitter commentary at the weekend.

“Because Blackrock will show the path to conversion, and GBTC’s 40%+ discount will resolve on top of industry growth.”
Cochran said that he thought BlackRock’s offering has “good odds” of getting U.S. regulatory approval.

“Very different structure than other efforts by a behemoth who doesn’t lose. ‘30 act redeemable trust w/ redemptions (unlike GBTC) + proposed rule change filing. They came to play,” he added.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-bitcoin-trust-2023-high-blackrock-etf-filing-buyers
----
P.S. It is intriguing also what will be the outcome of Greyscale vs SEC case. There are some unconfirmed rumours that Fidelity is also preparing a spot ETF acquiring Greyscale trust. All this looks pretty promising for better times. Who knows, perhaps this is the last chance to buy Bitcoin at these low prices?!?



I am all ears, having quite a bit of GBTC in a couple of my IRAs.
Somehow, I feel that the last action of Barry in that regard would be to continue screwing us, as he did in the last 2-2.5 years or so.
603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2023, 03:52:30 PM
It needs to be close to 53k or a shit ton of mines will fail.

Most mining gear is in large farms.
A 1 megawatt farm is not that large I am about 200kwatts of power I am a small commercial farm.
Plenty of farms are 5 megawatts and up.
So I see a strong move to near 50k or a disaster for large mines.

I estimate that a large farm now needs a 40k price for next fall to breakeven.


Fall of 2023, I assume.
The large difficulty move is perplexing, for sure, although price made a move similar to difficulty in % YTD (50-60%).
I saw the price of btc at about 35-40K at the halving, but now, with Blackrock submission, it could be higher as ETF, if approved by the EOY, would front run it.
Maybe 50K or even higher, however, if miners would also add into this, they would have troubles around actual halving because the 'flow' would be cut in half.
Is it possible that a newer silicon would be ready by then? S20 or something like this with 12-15 J/T.
604  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2023, 07:23:15 PM
An interesting Sunday afternoon read:

https://dnyuz.com/2023/06/18/why-it-seems-everything-we-knew-about-the-global-economy-is-no-longer-true/
605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2023, 07:12:02 PM
Blackrock forks the coin?
no matter, I will keep both
sleeping peacefully

#haiku
606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 17, 2023, 08:53:10 PM
Buddy, Buddy, Buddy,
must be muddy
in the coiners world
aha..ahaaaaa

#not a haiku, but a refrain from ___?
607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 17, 2023, 04:52:47 PM
"new" scam...a call saying that "there was an attempt to log into your account (at one of CEX), please provide credentials so we can secure it further".
beware
608  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2023, 05:28:24 PM
The number of people using #bitcoin and crypto around the world has increased by +36.88% year over year.


Source

Led by Asia....surprisingly, EU (and Africa) declined...that's a bit worrisome, but maybe temporary.
609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2023, 05:21:04 PM
We are above 26K..buddy is behind..., lol.
610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2023, 04:48:58 PM
"Breaking News"

SEC Have Just appointed  new  
chairman  for  the  agency  and  
is planning  to  legalize  crypto  
in  US markets  From  July  1st.


https://twitter.com/Ashcryptoreal/status/1669739503034966018

her boobs seem to be growing from one pic to another.
In any case...pretty nice.
Who is she, anyway?
611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2023, 09:26:24 PM
Gensler FUD plant so the government could have a last chance to get cheap coins?

Nice.

Now let’s see this approved and start the next fucking bull run.

While we are at it, can I have the 40% discount to NAV on GBTC disappear too...that would be nice  Grin
I know, I know, bought it in IRA, damn it.
612  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2023, 08:37:31 PM
Bull = back
       ?

A very young calf still, not even a yearling.
613  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2023, 07:30:18 PM

I wouldn't mind it....at all.

From James (InvestAnswers):

https://youtu.be/n68S0741wW4?t=1581

TL;DR Claims that there could be ONLY 416 thou wholecoiners (watch the whole vid to see how he arrives at that number).
Only 3.38% millionaires can get a whole (one) bitcoin by 2026 (assuming that there will be 100mil millionaires by 2026) or 0.141 btc/millionaire.
Sounds impossible? Follow earlier points in the vid.
614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2023, 06:34:32 PM
BTC.D is raising. Stay safe shitcoiners  Grin Buy BTC and enjoy!



funny that...only in a hurricane wind, maybe...otherwise, not supported by the laws of physics, albeit needed to 'push' forward/dunk a bit to counteract the movement of air.
Since the figurine was stable initially, it means that the force of gravity+friction was enough for it not to fly away in the initial position (against the upcoming air rush).
615  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2023, 07:51:27 PM


...proceeds to do all that, then withdraws to his "trusted" Ledger, recently updated to version 2.6.0
wowza!
616  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2023, 04:31:14 PM

A lot of people have been yelling for them to stop raising rates for a while now. With inflation where it has been, prices are rising everywhere expect compensation. Salaries have called way behind the cost of living increases and the only thing in my opinion keeping us from a 2008 style crash is that asset prices are being held up by rampant inflation.

All true, but didn't they raise in order to stop rising inflation.
At least theoretically, this is how it 'should" work.
Re inflation stopping crash-you have a good point there.

I was wondering myself why RE is not crashing despite an obvious overvaluation in light of the 50% (or more) housing cost increase PLUS the mortgage interest rate increase from roughly 3% to 6-7%? Suddenly, people are able to afford 2-2.5X increase in mortgage cost? How?

One explanation is the loss of supply caused by the reluctance of sellers with low % mortgage to sell and another, maybe in anticipation of higher than before inflation. Although, there are signs of a slow down; some houses around here are on the market for 6 mo already.
617  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2023, 03:27:21 AM
or even moar animated...

https://youtu.be/D2h4PhgobI8?t=24


Check out that "hot blonde"... and realize that it is Jennifer Coolidge, who became more famous much later in life..."Stifler's mom" (haha) and Tanya in "White lotus" (I think even got an Emmy for that one).
618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2023, 11:28:52 PM
OT: purely hypothetical  Cheesy

If a person puts his girlfriend on a large monthly stipend, regardless of whether they are together or not in the future, that's progress, right? /s
You could not say that he is "paying" for her 'services', but how would you characterize the situation?
"friends with a 'long term' interest"?
"girlfriend with a dividend"?
Maaan, something is not exactly right here, methinks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEXWRTEbj1I

or even moar animated...

https://youtu.be/D2h4PhgobI8?t=24
619  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2023, 09:24:19 PM
Off topic
For anyone that's interested...this is big


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39207-9

 Grin

skyrmion? spintronic reserves? neuromorphic computing?
I simply don't know enough physics to follow.

Is it basically a low power neural net?
620  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2023, 01:00:20 AM
.....

It is the single worse loss I have ever had with any coin of any kind.

And when it happened it was only 2x6=12 dollars.

I sent a lot of requests about this to a lot of people and finally gave up.

Could be worse it could be 2 BTC.

I think I lost half a bitcoin back in 2015. My worst loss. Live and learn.
That sucked. It was like $100 at the time. I just shrugged and chalked it up to cost of playing with fire.

If I knew in 2015 that btc would be at 25K 8 years later (with 69K peak), I would max up the credit cards (or used my 401a funds), obviously.
But...you never know. I am saying that in both cases losses could have been easily remedied at the very moment they occurred, right?

We always have regrets for something that could have been bought small and then blew up gigantically.
I bought quite a few AAPL shares in 1997, but sold them in 2000 when we entered the bear.
Made about 10X, 'lost' another 180X of appreciation, was actually thinking of re-entering at what is now $0.32 (split adjusted) in 2002, but somehow did not.
Does this eat me: absolutely not because you cannot reverse time. I am telling this just as an anecdote.
Your decisions are part of your life. You never know what you would have done with those 2 eth and/or 0.5 btc, right?.
I am almost 100% sure that I wouldn't have held AAPL for another 23 years as I am not Warren Buffet, but, subconsciously, maybe I have learned something like this:
never sell your winning investments because they could keep on winning for decades.
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