Spend and replace...or just spend/rake (as per various raking schemes). The one's @JJG and @phillippone had posted.. all is pretty much clear, albeit i have just one question regarding the methodology. Say, starting with 10btc, raking 2btc, but the next cycle starts with not 8btc, but 8+a fraction. I am not sure that it explains where that fraction came from OR maybe I did not look at it in sufficient detail  What I am getting at....right now, if you have a partner with whom you file a joined return, you can cash out 89K/year in cap gains and pay ZERO long term taxes (if you bought said btc more than 1 year ago). $89K by itself is more than the average US household income for the year....not bad. |
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if I look at my December 2021 prediction, I can attempt to use those numbers and timeline as a kind of guidance for what I had then considered to be possible at that point in that cycle, even though we are currently in a different part of our current cycle.. including our momentum is in a different kind of a place.. so $1 million by 2024.. gosh? maybe I would put it at 1%-ish. or maybe less than 2%. but I am not going to put that kind of number within a year at zero.. I actually looked at that Dec 2021 link and among other things it says: "13-17.5K-overly bearish-about 2% odds" Yet, it happened in 2022 despite the long odds. I am just saying that predictions are a hard business, even when measured in probabilities. We all want btc to be at $1 mil and above and it SHOULD be, but nobody really knows when it would get there in "our" version of the multiverse. From a tactical perspective, 20X spike in 2017 happened when almost nobody (except Tim Draper, haha) predicted it. I can only wish that US would stop "fighting" it and instead, allow it to fully flourish unencumbered and this remains my wish. |
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Thoughts about ETF effect on btc price in initial period:
On one hand, ETF sponsors would like to generate momentum, but, on the other hand, they would "like" institutions to be able to come not on a spike, thefore, my read is that after approval we will observe either a flat city or a smallish down (less than 5-10%) during the first few months, maybe to April, maybe to May. Later April sounds logical, as it is when the halving occurs. After that (this period could extend to summer, maybe): a very steady high powered bull run with no more than 10-15% local corrections...maybe for 12-18mo or maybe even multiple years.
I guess, everyone just counts on approval, but sometimes I think that PTB can still throw something nasty into the mix, but hopefully, they wouldn't and no black swans either: late 2019 to early 2020 was an especially nasty one. One day, btc was smartly running up in Jan -Feb 2020, then, suddenly, everything went "kabluey" due to covid panic.
it always impresses me how quickly the sentiment changes from gloom to doom and vise versa... even in the WO where is the clear "doom" in what I posted? waiting for 4 months? Some doom....  EDIT: Changing from gloom to doom is funny. |
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Thoughts about ETF effect on btc price in initial period:
On one hand, ETF sponsors would like to generate momentum, but, on the other hand, they would "like" institutions to be able to come not on a spike, thefore, my read is that after approval we will observe either a flat city or a smallish down (less than 5-10%) during the first few months, maybe to April, maybe to May. Later April sounds logical, as it is when the halving occurs. After that (this period could extend to summer, maybe): a very steady high powered bull run with no more than 10-15% local corrections...maybe for 12-18mo or maybe even multiple years.
I guess, everyone just counts on approval, but sometimes I think that PTB can still throw something nasty into the mix, but hopefully, they wouldn't and no black swans either: late 2019 to early 2020 was an especially nasty one. One day, btc was smartly running up in Jan -Feb 2020, then, suddenly, everything went "kabluey" due to covid panic.
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yea, some unknown exchanges are registered, known are not registered...weird...is this some kind of "local" favoritism? |
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Not selling my GBTC in IRAs until there no more discount. Hopefully, they will get approved in the first batch. After that, GBTC would need to drop their fee dramatically and if they don't, others will 'feast' on them ($27 bil or about for the "taking"). A small concern is whether they still have all that bitcoin they claim to have, but, hopefully, it is all good. |
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A hit or a miss? I think it's the latter.....quite ridiculous, in fact, but they (ad agencies) will learn...eventually. EDIT...On a second look...some vibes from the original "Wall street"...."money never sleeps, pal.....I don't care how....just get "it" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLAan2iZs_YThey probably should have said something along these lines..."Bitcoin...just get it" TM. I am sure, a phrase like this is coming..."they" will figure it out. |
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MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 14,620 BTC for ~$615.7 million at an average price of $42,110 per #bitcoin. As of 12/26/23,
@MicroStrategy
now hodls 189,150 $BTC acquired for ~$5.9 billion at an average price of $31,168 per bitcoin.
I fear what would happen to the market when they start selling those BTC, the market may face a huge dump. If I'm not wrong then the MicroStrategy won't be selling their Bitcoin at least for the time when Bitcoin doesn't reaches $1M a Bitcoin. Their business model is to act as a levered bitcoin play, supported by equity sells and a small cash flow from their other business. Basically, it is a 2X bitcoin ETF, but with no slippage (which happen in "regular" futures based 2X ETFs, which are typically to run away from). They will probably de-lever a bit later on. Ideally, they should de-lever during peaks and lever up during troughs, but imho, Michael Saylor got 'caught up' a little in Dec 2022. Thankfully, he did not have covenants that might have caused him to sell at a very inopportune moment. I calculate that at some point in Dec 2022, MSTR probably had almost zero equity: about 2X leverage at 29-30K with the price at $15-16K means that equity was then zero or perilously close to it. |
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But Glutamine and glutamate do seem to have some kind of a relationship, so I am not going to try to unravel any of that here.. seems to be beyond my depth, but interesting to see that there is some kind of a relationship, and you are not totally off of your rocker, Biodom.
It's simple...Glutamate (for example in monosodium glutamate) is simply an anionic form of glutamic acid (as glutamine has an acidic carboxyl residue, which can ionize), which is a non-essential amino acid (meaning that we don't have to consume it as food), mostly acting as a potent neurotransmitter and in protein biosynthesis. This is similar to citric acid/citrate, carboxylic acid/carbonate, etc. Sorry for a bout of chemistry....but not much is happening to bitcoin price right now. |
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[edited out]
OT, I know, sorry for the all-medical post spree... Thanks for the comments about NAC. Never heard of it prior to OOM mentioning it. Will have to get some. I'm not generally a fan of supplements, but one thing I can say from personal experience is about magnesium. A few months ago I started taking it daily, and I now sleep much better than before. I have vivid, movie-like dreams almost every night, it's pretty amazing. Like, I'm going to bed with an anticipation of the dream I'm going to have. The only supplements I take are magnesium (400 mg/day), zinc (22 mg/day), and vitamin C (1000 mg/day). The cocktail was suggested by a trusted doctor friend. I don't know if it's just the magnesium or the combined effect re. the dreams... BTW, I was tested today and it turns out I have COVID-19... Already lost sense of smell and partial sense of taste (basically food tastes weird). Fever has completely subsided. Nose still runny (NAC could help here?). Positive line on test was deep red (high viral load). On top of all that, Bitcoin is ant-dipping again. What a great gift for Christmas & the New Year! Counting on the upcoming ETF thing... Take good care guys. Prep your bodies and your spirits for the upcoming stratospheric pump. I heard good things about Niacin (and Glutamin), and about 8 months ago, I was trying to stimulate a discussion on the topic by creating a thread, but I did not stimulate too much of such conversation, and I have been taking those as supplements since starting that thread, yet I am not sure if I feel any results from adding those two to my regime. I do already take vitamin C and I started taking Zinc recently too.. and gosh I hate to admit all of the supplements that I added recently, so it is not really clear if there are abilities to be scientific if too many are added.. and then a kind of wondering whether any of them are helping anything. Glutamine? It's basically a neurotransmitter...in mono sodium glutamate form (MSG) causing severe headaches in some people, hence the "no MSG" label. I am open minded re supplements and dabbled in them quite extensively 10 years ago, even found a combo that caused 20 lb weight loss (roughly 10-11%, which was quite a bit in pre-ozempic era) with nary side effects at first, but, say, two years later being on the "regimen", I started to feel that my life 'tonus' is diminished somewhat...it is difficult to pin it down, just feeling constantly a bit tired and less interested in everything, which is not typical for me, maybe, so I dropped the "regimen" and that strange feeling went away shortly thereafter. I am sure that people have genetic differences and various supplements are more beneficial to some, but not all. AFAIK, all large scale blinded studies did not show any clear benefit for basically any supplement. At each individual level, I am sure there are almost miracle cases, but so far there is no science to create a "molecular fit" for a given person. |
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NEWS:Billionaire Tim Draper says Bitcoin will hit $250,000 in 2024.
My body is ready
I'm sure that one day Tim Draper will be right, but as things stand so far he has not justified the status of a "prophet", considering that in 2014 he uttered the famous saying "1 BTC will be worth at least $10,000 in the next three years"....and it did...exactly 3 years later, in 2017, lol his other prediction of 250K in 2022 did not pan out, of course, and he admits to that. In my opinion, anyone who predicts BOTH the timing and the price are not going to be successful, typically. Check out the vid (@fillippone was most likely talking about T. Draper info from this one): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfOeVUbbx9YI watched it with interest because the contrast between bitcoin "guy" Draper and a s-tcoin "promoter" R. Pal (who invest most of his money in ONE coin  ) could not be more clear. Draper also explains very well how VC funding works. The gal is easy on the eye too (for this older fella), haha. |
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Merry Christmas, WO!
The Moon is shining
Christmas is coming shortly
Warm feelings are here
#haiku
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From A. Hayes: https://cryptohayes.medium.com/expression-f580605ebccdHe doesn't want ETFs to be too successful as Blackrocks of the world don't care about the transactions via bitcoin and perceive it just as an asset. According to Hayes: Imagine a future where the largest Western and Chinese asset managers hold all the Bitcoin in circulation. This happens organically as people confuse a financial asset with a store of value. Because of their confusion and laziness, people purchase Bitcoin ETF derivatives rather than buying and hodling Bitcoin in self-custodied wallets. Now that a handful of firms hold all the Bitcoin, and have no actual use for the Bitcoin blockchain, the coins never move again. The end result is miners turn off their machines as they can no longer pay for the energy required to run them. Bye-bye, Bitcoin!
It is beautiful when you think about it. If Bitcoin becomes just another state-controlled financial asset, it dies because it isn’t used. and Either you are trading a financial asset to earn more fiat, or you are trying to preserve wealth in energy terms alongside using a financial system outside of the state’s control. In the former case, trade ETFs to your heart’s content. That is why they exist. In the latter case, you must buy Bitcoin and withdraw it from the centralised exchange to your own self-custodial wallet. Ditto to the latter quote. |
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Haiku's block tonight.
Words don't come easy, it seems,
When sick as a dog.
Came down with the flu.
Is it COVID? I wonder...
Got to check it out.
#7wodigestsundayhaikus
Yo...get better soon! |
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Some weird s-t is going on, not on bitcoin, of course, but I cannot fully ignore it, watching it with my "peripheral" vision.
Imho, there are "pumper" groups working in unison causing some tokens to "pop" 50-90% a day, then moving to other "targets".
Kind of amusing and annoying at the same time.
I do not have schadenfreude regarding somebody who has these gains, temporarily, I might say.
Not a time to be bearish on bitcoin, though, and I am very happy with "our" ~160% gains for the year to-date.
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Flatfish? I kid..One of these maybe: flounder, sole, turbot, plaice, halibut, brill, dab and megrim. At least one of them looks flattish and yummy |
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Big weekend coming up or what?
Wake up on Christmas and see 48k?
Dec 2023
24
25
26
Dec 2022
24 16,796
25 16,847
26 16,842
DEC 2021
24 50,768
25 50,393
26 50,076
Dec 2020
24 23,240
25 23,733
26 26,280
the gain in 2020 from Christmas Day to Boxing Day was very good 10.7%
if we can do that this time we could crack 48k on the 26th of Dec Boxing Day
Continuing on this topic...By cycle timing, we are more like 2019, but we are probably left-translated a bit, maybe as much as 4-6 mo in comparison with the prior cycle. In 2019, almost nothing happened on those days. Dec 2019 24 7,270 25 7,221 26 7,200 We shall see. |
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If you invested $1,000, 10 years ago: Google: $5,000 Facebook: $6,000 Amazon: $7,500 Tesla: $25,000 Bitcoin: $44,000 BMshow us dec 2017 to dec 2023 btc is 19 to 43 so 1000 would be around 2300 google facebook amazon tesla do the math bro or better do btc dec 2012 to dec 2023 10 dollars to 43000 or 1,000 to 4,300,000 so btc is godlike 2012 to 2023 and great 2013 to 2023 and good 2017 to 2023 btc 19.5k dec 2017 44.1k dec 2023 edit : google 53 dec 2017 140 dec 2023 that beats BTC Facebook 176 dec 2017 350 dec 2023 just loses to btc amazon 59 dec 2017 145 dec 2023 that beats BTC Tesla 20 dec 2017 241 dec 2023 that beats BTC Tesla is best dec 2017 to dec 2023 yea, you can always found more favorable dates (I always look at 5-10 years, in this case 8 years): bitcoin $284 July 2015 to $44150 Dec 2023 155X NVDA $4.9 July 2015 to $489 Dec 2023 100X TL;DR both bitcoin and Nvidia had more than 100X in the last 8 years (in both cases starting that period with more than a $billion valuation). |
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If you invested $1,000, 10 years ago: Google: $5,000 Facebook: $6,000 Amazon: $7,500 Tesla: $25,000 Bitcoin: $44,000 BMGoogle 8000$ 1000$ invested in BTC 6 years ago, 2000$ now  My read on this (short time period relative "underperformance") is that bitcoin run out of 'adventurous' investors, but is about to unlock the "advised money" first, then sovereign funds. IMHO, bitcoin shall come to out performance soon or it could have already started last October and may last for 7 years, as it did when gold ETF was approved. |
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