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Sidenote: they closed Silicon Valley bank and ALSO the Signature bank, apparently (Silvergate closed last week).
Is there any bank left for Coinbase and Kraken to bank with?
I am not sure.
Regional banks might bounce up tomorrow, but then it might be like Lehman after it bounced up after Bear went under....same problems.
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New Zealand opened.  Down less than 0.4%...that's about....nothing. US legislators "like" to see Dow down 1000 points before they lift a finger, typically. I 'member it from 2008. |
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Man I stopped fighting buddy and all hell broke loose.
I will continue to not contest buddy and hope for a more interesting effect.
I will say this SVB appears to have been targeted with a massive run by depositors.
Wonder what Mon and Tues bring us
Unless I missed something SVB had most of its money in government bonds. That's supposed to be the safest thing, aside from just holding cash I guess. But people want returns, so the bank has to do something with the money. They only incurred losses because they had to sell these bonds at lower than face value. If a bank with the safest investments can be brought down by a bank run in a couple of days, what does that tell us about banks that invest in mortgages, corporate bonds, emerging markets ? They should have raised funds proactively, once Fed started to raise rates aggressively, but they waited and tried to raise funds only once they sold MBSes at a loss. As a result, market got spooked and they got hit with large amount of withdrawals. You are right, though, fractional reserve is fractional reserve, it is all based on confidence. However, the question for most is: withdraw where? Apart from bitcoin, as we learn from the last year the answer is probably: who knows? |
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Coinbase are planning to resume redemption 1:1 of USDC for USD, once banks are open again, so arbitrage will play out of buying USDC under $1 and selling 1:1 for dollar until the price returns to parity. Despite all the doom and gloomers out there expecting USDC to go to zero, the likelihood hood (right now) of that happening is very low. TL:DR: USDC de-pegging in this scenario isn't good or bad for Bitcoin, it's simply irrelevant. Coinbase is just being optimistic. i would be surprised if they do so, although some people have said that even in the WORST case scenario (no buyer for SVB), FEDs would immediately issue a 62% 'dividend' with eventual recovery up to 94%. So, it that case Circle gets 0.62X3.3=2.05 bil, with the shortfall "just" 1.254bil, which is about 3%, which later (1-2 years) becomes only about $200mil (6% of 3.3 bil). Since Circle is earning about 1.56 bil/year on it's Treasuries, it is a situation that theoretically should resolve positively. TL;DR If numbers are similar to what I posted, USDC might recover to about 0.97 by Monday. |
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Oh the money printer is still open for business, it's just that no one wants to borrow at 5+% rates. A return on nothing is still nothing. I describe it like this: "F-k around....and find out". |
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I never understood why people say that the collapse of stable coins would hurt Bitcoin in the short term. For me it seems just logical that Bitcoin would go up in price. I mean where else should the money from a collapsing stablecoin market go? A part into fiat but the rest would go into the next stable and most secure coin, which is Bitcoin. right now, it mostly went to tether, which is erroneus, IMHO. |
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I’ve started getting calls from friends, asking me how worried they should be about the current situation in crypto. I don’t know if that is a good thing as people are scared, and that signals the bottom, or if it is a horrible thing that we’re about to witness a global 2008 style collapse in all assets. My hope is that this is the time to buy when there’s blood in the streets but we will see.
Apart from the Circle, the area most affected is the venture capital, which is mostly nothing to do with "crypto". So, you can tell them that reckless FED just shut down the world's engine of innovation, but yes, pizza and Coca-Cola are unaffected. IMHO, collapse in all assets is more likely than not (or at least 50:50 chance), unless they manage to sell SVB to someone this weekend. |
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When I shorted ETH last week at 1652.04 I did it as a consequence of BTC failing to break the 200MA resistance. I was expecting BTC to confirm the technical double bottom of June 18th and November 09th one last time. Now all this wind of news and fud is catching my sails, still I believe the bottom is in technically - just needs one more confirmation. The only thing that has changed is that we are moving there faster now.  seems half of twitter is waiting for 12k-13k, I wonder if it will happen  good luck with betting on lower BTC prices when being already 72% under the ATH I think crypto twitter is pretty split right now. Maybe 40% expect a rebound from around $20K, another 40% still expect $12-14K with probably around 20% undecided. I say "still expect", but in reality they previously called for $10-12K and have since increased their bearish target by about +$2K. I imagine that with Bitcoin returning to $24K they will be calling for $16-18K again (increasing by +$2K again). If anything the bears are useful for one thing, being around $4K off the bottom each time. So based on this I'd estimate the lowest price goes is around $18K ($14K+4). Ideally it holds $19K for sake of continuing the uptrend, but this is also the bullish scenario too many are betting on, myself included. I'll look forward to $24K levels again, as I imagine another higher low around $22K ($18K+4) would be in play. Wouldn't bet on that too. We could see a confirmation of the technical double bottom already at 18k.
This I agree is more realistic than $12-14K right now. Turning previous resistance into support with a technical double rounding bottom is still a reasonable suggestion for now. Closed the CME "gap", not that I believe in this kind of thing being the utmost important. Partially OT: I am still 'amazed' as of how fast things went downhill at SVB. Wed stock at $267 and mostly flat Thu, a gap down, then plunge with stock ending at $106. Today-receivership, most likely a ZERO for stock holders, maybe a pittance. Apparently , they have above 180bil of assets and close to 170bil liabilities, so maybe depositors would get close to 100%, but it would take a long time for those with more than 250K deposits. |
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Fin "guy" predicts 100bp interest rate CUT within 6-9 mo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdSiIYBiGjIStocks bottom is usually within 6 mo of the cut start, so, say, cuts start in 3-6mo, then bull market starts (in full) in 9-12 mo. Makes sense, just before the halving. That...or we are in 1930 (or maybe spring 2007)...I prefer the first scenario (100 bp cut). Looking to make a sizable purchase of btc and stocks, but not yet. |
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SIVB-receivership?? Wow
two days ago the stock was $268, yesterday $108, now halted with news of possible sell and it currently being placed in receivership.
This is faster than Bear went down in 2007.
Let me guess: $2/share?
EDIT: this is an important bank for venture caps, had 175 bil(!) deposits at the end of December.
people REALLY should put money in bitcoin (not a financial advice).
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An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:
- In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.
- As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.
- 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.
- The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration "risk-free" bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.
- This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.
- However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.
https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctlyyou misunderstood, sorry. It is just that moron bank (and maybe many more) used large cash deposits from "smart" investors taking profits at the end of 2021 to purchase some bonds (MBS) that had long duration, but tiny yield. Because yield is now much higher, those bonds were at a loss on their books. Bottom line: if you have 10/1 loans to deposits ratio, your "book" would be screwed with a fast move in interest rates. personally, i think that Silvergate/SIVB is something like hedge funds blowup in Jan-Feb 2007. Then a "Bear" and then "Lehman"...maybe not to the same degree, but enough to do some "damage". Bitcoin has NOTHING to do with this, it's just being thrown out "because crypto" kind of Wall Street thinking. Smart money accumulates. |
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Logic is upside down these days.
...It used to be: (pretty much) someone investigating something unlikely for a bit of fun pass time.
Now it is: someone whose views don't align with ours and doesn't believe our lies and is probably right so we must silence them.
What I see is a deliberate suppression out of fear, not in strength. If you are strong, you don't need to suppress new ideas and technologies. Something must be up, not sure what, but some incomprehensible tax proposals were also tabled. I guess the "system" wants to 'eat itself to death"... Spaceballs vibes |
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found this linky on reddit: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/perth-mint-gold-doping-china-cover-up-four-corners/102048622Gold doping...less of an issue than I originally thought (gold was still 99.99% pure, apparently), but Perth was apparently selling bars to SGE that were not up to their particularly high standards. Allegedly, it was going on since 2018...and all they wanted was to 'save' 620K a year. I still say that a retail customer ordering a 1oz or even a kilo don't really know what he/she gets...it is all based on trust. Still yet another reason to buy silver bars vs gold. Better yet buy BTC. silver bars value per weight is roughly 1/100 of gold. I am not going to store chunks of metal at home, hence no go for me, but i got a tiny bit of "fake" silver-SLV ETF, play amounts. bitcoin is flat as a pancake, not sure why. |
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found this linky on reddit: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/perth-mint-gold-doping-china-cover-up-four-corners/102048622Gold doping...less of an issue than I originally thought (gold was still 99.99% pure, apparently), but Perth was apparently selling bars to SGE that were not up to their particularly high standards. Allegedly, it was going on since 2018...and all they wanted was to 'save' 620K a year. I still say that a retail customer ordering a 1oz or even a kilo don't really know what he/she gets...it is all based on trust. |
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buddy just did 24 and I did 26
I know that you try to keep it interesting, but he/it is always at 24/day and you can post 30 if you really want, right? man vs machine is skewed towards man in this case because the machine is on a steady stream of posts. maybe richie gets competitive and reprograms it to start posting every 30 min? i kid, i kid. |
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Buddy's double brings him to 23
but this post gets me to 25 or maybe 26
So 3 of 3 days so far.
geez, phil, you have a lot of post stamina...respect. Can't say that I am not entertained by this "battle". |
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OT: I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing. This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity” Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion. Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind? 
https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/yeah but were these the best 5 out of 500? Bingo! Still...impressive considering how indirect fMRI data is. What this tech would be able to do in 5-10 years? A bit scary. I have so many questions. Is it more like a camera recording live? ie is the subject staring at the image while the MRI is on. Is there a time delay? Ie look at image for 1 minute look at blank white screen for 1 minute or for that matter try a free screen a blue screen a yellow one. Then test with the MRI I can picture that you need a reset image so you can't be read. So you paint an image on your hand look at it to reset your brain. Still very impressive tech. 1 step closer to the matrix. (if we are not there as of now) Buddy v Phil
buddy = 17
Phil = 18
here is more info about the method: https://the-decoder.com/stable-diffusion-can-visualize-human-thoughts-from-mri-data/beware: site wants to know your location and wants to set lots of cookies, which could be declined. combine that with this: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/next-step-surveillance-ai-finding-133038020.htmland it gets pretty orwellian in 5 -10 years you enter the store and store's AI already knows what you want and jacks the price 10% "just for you"....albeit it already exists in the lo-tech world: painters, roofers, plumbers, etc set up the price partially on what they percieve you are worth, judging by your home/habitat. The more expensive it looks, the higher is the price of the same work...just a fact. |
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OT: I remember I have seen this before but to this much accuracy it’s mind blowing. This is study recently published for peer-review “High-resolution image reconstruction with latent diffusion models from human brain activity” Below set of ”Presented images” were shown to a group of humans. The “Reconstructed Images” were the result of an fMRI output to Stable Diffusion. Doesn’t it look like it can read human mind?
https://sites.google.com/view/stablediffusion-with-brain/yeah but were these the best 5 out of 500? Bingo! Still...impressive considering how indirect fMRI data is. What this tech would be able to do in 5-10 years? A bit scary. |
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To all those cheering on short term I-Bond rates, be warned, the music will eventually stop. And stop hard.
The return rates will drop to zero overnight, and all the bagholders will be looking for the exit.
that's why i never bought the stupid I-bond or even treasuries (yet). treasury money market...highly liquid, 1:1 with cash and you could be out in 24hr. To critics, I am getting into an age situation where money flow is what matters, so bitcoin is a long term savings account (a "fortress of solitude" in the "Gambler" parlance) and money flow from work (currently), pension, soc sec, money market (interest), potentially deferred annuities, etc, etc is a spending account with multiple entries. Never wanted to own properties for rent-not my thing when I would have to chase the non-payers (renters). |
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