[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smoothie]

This will be back to 225 in a week.

You got a magik 8 bawl?

Price seems sort of stable...like the calm before VOLATILITY.

[1714863442]

1714863442

[1714863442]

1714863442

[1714863442]

1714863442

[sandiman]

This thread is amazing, watching all these wales fighting each other for their stack of monero is really interesting 


Who will be the last standing with the more monero ?? should we open a bet 

[birr]

This thread is amazing, watching all these wales fighting each other for their stack of monero is really interesting  


Who will be the last standing with the more monero ?? should we open a bet  

I'm all right Jack keep your hands off of my stack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwU8QeW4ofU

[TrueCryptonaire]

It seems we could be testing .0028 before resuming the slow pace, sane bull run. What are your short term projections?

You can dump >41000 XMR to 288k if you like gambling.  Some folks do.

Aaaand... somebody did.  LOL.  It will be fun to watch them race to cover the loss.

Your bullishness makes me nervous.

There are short sellers trying to take it down now.  You should be encouraged, because that means cheap now, higher later.

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/multiple-level-thinking-in-poker-19458.htm

Yeah and someone is getting leveled there... I think someone is levelling themselves in fact.

After all, if there is a short position of 70 k coins opened, it is not that much. It is only worth of 10 days of inflation. Shorting doesn't mean the price goes up (why would one short if he thinks the price rises - long position is the right side to be). Sure shorts can be squeezed but that means someone needs to be able to control large amounts of money. Please bear in mind, already more than 12 million Moneros have been mined. When 12 btc was mined, the price touched 1000 usd. Monero barely 2 dollars.

I think things should get serious soon, otherwise there is also a risk that Monero looses the momentum and the short position is the only right position to be in. Right now the market cap is 20 million usd so if 1-2 large players are sure enough Monero fails, they can make some significiant amount of money by shorting it.

[aminorex]

I think things should get serious soon, otherwise there is also a risk that Monero looses the momentum and the short position is the only right position to be in. Right now the market cap is 20 million usd so if 1-2 large players are sure enough Monero fails, they can make some significiant amount of money by shorting it.

Clearly there is no momentum presently, none at all: Px is unchg since 7 July.   Also clear, after the dump yesterday, is that you need to risk much more than 140,000 USD if you will ignite momentum.   I would certainly encourage the attempt:  From my point of view the most lucrative possible scenario is for someone to attempt a massive XMR short play, and anyone so evil as to do so needs to have their wealth stripped from them.

Since price has lost its momentum, I don't expect much to happen until there is a catalyst.  The most likely catalyst is a BTC rise front running the u.s. regulated market listings of winklevoss and solidx, but XMR software developments are also worth following.

Bitcoin trust listings should result in gigantic inflows for crypto.  All the alts will gain on that, but XMR much more than others.  Solidx players already hold some XMR, and will probably seek to add for diversification out of BTC after gains associated with the listing.

We are building a base now.  It is the perfect time to accumulate, because risk is unusually low, and all the catalysts are favorable.  Brexit served us well.  Central banks are printing like never before, and likely to add more.  U.s bonds and stocks are all at nose-bleed bubble highs, so that the downside risk is far greater than the downside risk in high grade crypto like BTC and XMR.  Productive commodities are suffering from demand destruction, but monetary metals are prospering, and so too is investment grade crypto.  Just as gold is retrenching now, so too is XMR.  Just as gold is destined to rise into Autumn, so too is XMR.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think things should get serious soon, otherwise there is also a risk that Monero looses the momentum and the short position is the only right position to be in. Right now the market cap is 20 million usd so if 1-2 large players are sure enough Monero fails, they can make some significiant amount of money by shorting it.

Clearly there is no momentum presently, none at all: Px is unchg since 7 July.   Also clear, after the dump yesterday, is that you need to risk much more than 140,000 USD if you will ignite momentum.   I would certainly encourage the attempt:  From my point of view the most lucrative possible scenario is for someone to attempt a massive XMR short play, and anyone so evil as to do so needs to have their wealth stripped from them.

Since price has lost its momentum, I don't expect much to happen until there is a catalyst.  The most likely catalyst is a BTC rise front running the u.s. regulated market listings of winklevoss and solidx, but XMR software developments are also worth following.

Bitcoin trust listings should result in gigantic inflows for crypto.  All the alts will gain on that, but XMR much more than others.  Solidx players already hold some XMR, and will probably seek to add for diversification out of BTC after gains associated with the listing.

We are building a base now.  It is the perfect time to accumulate, because risk is unusually low, and all the catalysts are favorable.  Brexit served us well.  Central banks are printing like never before, and likely to add more.  U.s bonds and stocks are all at nose-bleed bubble highs, so that the downside risk is far greater than the downside risk in high grade crypto like BTC and XMR.  Productive commodities are suffering from demand destruction, but monetary metals are prospering, and so too is investment grade crypto.  Just as gold is retrenching now, so too is XMR.  Just as gold is destined to rise into Autumn, so too is XMR.

I have reached my limits in buying Monero already.
I have no need for extra Moneros. If it shoots up, I wil be rich. Otherwise I just hold my current coins and see if it can survive above 0.001.

[Hueristic]

This thread is amazing, watching all these wales fighting each other for their stack of monero is really interesting 


Who will be the last standing with the more monero ?? should we open a bet 

The question really is who will end up with the most worth, whether it be XMR, BTC or fiat at the end of the day.

[aminorex]

I have reached my limits in buying Monero already.
I have no need for extra Moneros. If it shoots up, I wil be rich. Otherwise I just hold my current coins and see if it can survive above 0.001.

Well then, you're no longer a speculator.  For my part, I like to factor my holdings into an investment part and a trading part.  The goal being to reduce the net cost basis of the investment part, over the long run.  It's not hard to do if you can avoid an excess of emotional entanglement, be patient, have the restraint to wait for turns, and the cojones to double down when you bet wrongly.  Sometimes I get too busy for it though - despite that it is more remunerative than the day job.  After all, it's just money.  Unless you can do something constructive with it, you are probably better off without it.

[iCEBREAKER]

Since price has lost its momentum, I don't expect much to happen until there is a catalyst.  The most likely catalyst is a BTC rise front running the u.s. regulated market listings of winklevoss and solidx, but XMR software developments are also worth following.

Bitcoin trust listings should result in gigantic inflows for crypto.  All the alts will gain on that, but XMR much more than others.  Solidx players already hold some XMR, and will probably seek to add for diversification out of BTC after gains associated with the listing.

We are building a base now.  It is the perfect time to accumulate, because risk is unusually low, and all the catalysts are favorable.  Brexit served us well.  Central banks are printing like never before, and likely to add more.  U.s bonds and stocks are all at nose-bleed bubble highs, so that the downside risk is far greater than the downside risk in high grade crypto like BTC and XMR.  Productive commodities are suffering from demand destruction, but monetary metals are prospering, and so too is investment grade crypto.  Just as gold is retrenching now, so too is XMR.  Just as gold is destined to rise into Autumn, so too is XMR.

I didn't sell in May and stay away, so using the hectic gyrations around 250k was able to grub a few more BTC worth of precious XMR.

Now I'm just hloding on for dear life, paralyzed with terror of upward FOMO and downside risk.   

The BTC halvening was instructive in terms of buy rumor/sell news "catalyst" dependent forecasting.

IE, those of us assuming the market was sufficiently efficient to price-in the Event were correct.  And IMO the same logic goes for trust listings (the thesis being hot money/speculative interest has already priced-in and front-ran future demand from slow money/instutional sources).

But IDK if that analysis is applicable to XMR.  Is its comparatively tiny market mature enough to look far enough down the road to see XMR ETF/ETN effects?  On the "yes" side, we do know Mustangs are exceptionally brilliant and possess extraordinarily low time preferences.... 

BTC already had a previous halvening under its belt, but XMR never had an Official GUI.

I'm just going to keep watching https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activity and watching the support build at 300k/$2.   

I have reached my limits in buying Monero already.
I have no need for extra Moneros.

Translation: "I want to buy more Moneros, but with less competition from you meddling kids!"   

[aminorex]

The BTC halvening was instructive in terms of buy rumor/sell news "catalyst" dependent forecasting.

It hasn't happened yet.  It took a year from the first halvening to the 100x spike.  This one will be quicker, maybe 6 months, but smaller in factor.

hot money/speculative interest has already priced-in and front-ran future demand from slow money/instutional sources

Disagree: It is simply impossible to efficiently front-run a massive inflow of value. The current bottleneck is too narrow. Efficiency will only arise after the bottlenecks have been removed.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I have reached my limits in buying Monero already.
I have no need for extra Moneros. If it shoots up, I wil be rich. Otherwise I just hold my current coins and see if it can survive above 0.001.

Well then, you're no longer a speculator.  For my part, I like to factor my holdings into an investment part and a trading part.  The goal being to reduce the net cost basis of the investment part, over the long run.  It's not hard to do if you can avoid an excess of emotional entanglement, be patient, have the restraint to wait for turns, and the cojones to double down when you bet wrongly.  Sometimes I get too busy for it though - despite that it is more remunerative than the day job.  After all, it's just money.  Unless you can do something constructive with it, you are probably better off without it.

Yes I made the transition from a speculator to an investor already 6-7 months ago, in the beginning of 2016 since this is the year Monero should start show some strength.
I have not been buying that many Moneros this year anymore since the price is now so high that I cannot afford to buy more but at 0.001 I might consider. On the other hand, if I am able to buy at that price I am not too sure if I want to buy even at that price since the price should not be in the same levels as it was in 2014.

[Dotto]

[iCEBREAKER]

The BTC halvening was instructive in terms of buy rumor/sell news "catalyst" dependent forecasting.

It hasn't happened yet.  It took a year from the first halvening to the 100x spike.  This one will be quicker, maybe 6 months, but smaller in factor.

hot money/speculative interest has already priced-in and front-ran future demand from slow money/instutional sources

Disagree: It is simply impossible to efficiently front-run a massive inflow of value. The current bottleneck is too narrow. Efficiency will only arise after the bottlenecks have been removed.

I thought that's what you'd say.   Ridiculous premiums on GBTC indicate you may be correct.

But the "current bottleneck" isn't comparable to those existing at the time of the first halvening.  Back then there was no Kraken/Coinbase/Bitfinex/Gemini for accredited investors, nor mature derivative markets for playing with leverage.  And the 100x spike must have motivated at least a bit of halvening front running.

Getting back to XMR, I've identified a high profile, well-networked potential endorser: Jacob Rees-Mogg.

In a case of strong synchronicity, I came across his highly entertaining Brexit activism the night before being reminded his father anticipated Bitcoin Monero being used to "declare monetary independence" (IE financial sovereignty).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4sadn4/bitcoin_prediction_from_1999_in_the_book_called/

The Sovereign Individual is an excellent tome and I'm pleased to see it coming back in vogue!

Aside from politics, JRM has an investment firm, Somerset Capital, following in Dad's footsteps at The Zurich Club and Fleet Street Letter.

Any ideas on how to approach these Strategic Investment types, explain why Monero is the cybercurrency Lord Rees-Mogg was waiting for, and get some of the $6.8bn they control working within our market cap?

Shall we deploy Fluffy to Hard Asset Conferences?  Maybe it's better to let them discover XMR organically, instead of pushing to make it happen.

But after the unseemly debacles with Olivier Janssens, Roger Ver & Team KryptoKit, etc., I believe we need a better class of Professional Libertarians around here.   

The entrance to that rarefied rabbit hole may be here:

http://sovereignsociety.com/faqs/
http://thesovereigninvestor.com/privacy-invasion/say-goodbye-fourth-amendment/

This crowd is really into "Ultimate Wealth Protection" so XMR is going to delight them!   

[rangedriver]

Any ideas on how to approach these Strategic Investment types, explain why Monero is the cybercurrency Lord Rees-Mogg was waiting for, and get some of the $6.8bn they control working within our market cap?

Follow the white rabbit.

http://www.jacobreesmogg.com/contact/

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero needs a big buyer or a few largish buyers. If I am not mistaken, it was thanks to Winklevoss guys that took bitcoin off. Personally I am done with my buying (hopefully it will not drop to my buy zone since I do not want to have any excessive amounts of coins).
Personally I'd love to see some serious rise with XMR finally. I am not dumping - do not worry - play time is over - and XMR is like btc, wether it goes to 0 or towards infinity. Better to become more serious or give up now as the most of Moneros are mined before the minimum inflation kicks.
Significiant rise is only due to big buyer(s) entering to the markets, and I mean buyers who will buy coins worth of several millions of dollars at one time (probably they need OTC trading though).
I think it is perfect time to start taking the big buyers into the markets - the OTC seller can buy slowly back the coins from exchange to avoid the slippage. Somehow the information has to be brought to the institutional investors. I doubt they will find us.

I am not satisfied even to 100 usd/XMR price.

[bobabouey2]

Wonder if Smooth and Fluffypony's involvement in steem is bringing some of that group to Monero...

[TheKoziTwo]

Code:

The GUI is currently functional for sending and receiving, some stuff like advanced options have to be finished but if you guys want you can already try and compile it from ilya´s github.

Source

[TrueCryptonaire]

Code:

The GUI is currently functional for sending and receiving, some stuff like advanced options have to be finished but if you guys want you can already try and compile it from ilya´s github.

Source

Do you think it will affect on the price? Demand need to be sourced from somewhere. Some bigger guys need to buy in to collect the loose coins from the weak hands.

[GingerAle]

Code:

The GUI is currently functional for sending and receiving, some stuff like advanced options have to be finished but if you guys want you can already try and compile it from ilya´s github.

Source

img snarp

Do you think it will affect on the price? Demand need to be sourced from somewhere. Some bigger guys need to buy in to collect the loose coins from the weak hands.

Oh gee I dunno. The GUI has been about the only thing that people THINK is keeping XMR on the ground... and the price of a commodity is based on what people THINK it should be.

[Globb0]