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101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ultimate Hodlers only thread - do you have a dollar price in mind? on: April 21, 2016, 02:53:59 PM
Rather than destroying your bitcoins after death, I would recommend using multi-sig and giving highly trusted friends (not ideologically unaligned relatives, who may feel entitled to your bitcoins) the ability to come together and donate your remaining bitcoins to nonprofits of your choosing. These nonprofits could then fund various goals that you would support, whatever those may be.
102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Ultimate Hodlers only thread - do you have a dollar price in mind? on: April 21, 2016, 11:46:30 AM
Good, this is the type of thread we need. I've been following your posts for a long time -- we registered our accounts within a day of each other back in 2011. Smiley

The 'Planning Bitcoin Withdrawals - Advanced' spreadsheet by Chainsaw is good for planning divestments over time as needed.
103  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2016-04-20] ‘Bitcoin is dead,’ says prominent fintech exec on: April 21, 2016, 10:16:33 AM
Distributed ledger technology is a necessary component of bitcoin but not the main invention, which is a trust-no-one global currency...

Yup, haters trying to flip the narrative and fools following as usual. Look back on cypherpunk writings from the 90s. The goal was a trust-no-one private global currency. The blockchain is the technology which enables that, and a brilliant invention, but the blockchain itself wasn't the goal. The haters aren't sure what to do so they painted this blockchain picture which is intellectually pretty bankrupt and doomed to failure but experiencing some rather pathetic malinvestment at the moment. I guess it might be buying them time to a certain extent and acting as one more transfer of wealth from the hands of the uninformed. Such is the way of the world.
104  Economy / Speculation / 30-day volatility now the LOWEST on record! 60-day is 2nd lowest on record! on: April 18, 2016, 10:16:54 AM
I can't believe it! Here's a volatility update as of April 17, 2016:

60-day volatility has fallen to the 2nd lowest on record! 1.315%

And 30-day is now the lowest on record! 0.723%

What comes next?
105  Economy / Speculation / Time to sell my laptop so I can be all in on: April 18, 2016, 12:57:34 AM
Didn't even think I could get money for my dog until another poster here pointed that out. Thanks! Now I'm making my last post before I sell my laptop. Gotta switch to a paper wallet. This time I'm going all in! Fortunately public nudity is not illegal around these parts. See you guys after the halving!
106  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] New crypto-currency to be released: BLOCKCHAIN (tm) on: April 15, 2016, 04:16:15 PM
Does BLOCKCHAIN use the technology known as the bitcoin? I heard the technology behind BLOCKCHAIN was going to change the world, but blockchain itself was a nonstarter. Wink </profound misunderstanding>
107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fasten your seatbelts: now it begins... on: April 15, 2016, 11:50:48 AM
And so we have it!

60-day volatility down to the 6th lowest level on record. 1.377%

I think we might be able to move up one to three more positions. This would be pretty impressive at these price levels.

30-day stable at 0.857%.
108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fasten your seatbelts: now it begins... on: April 13, 2016, 05:54:34 AM
Stability means we gain $1,618,209 at current prices/block rate (~10 day average).

The rocket is being fueled.

watching in a trance
the crew is certain
nothing left to chance
all is working
trying to relax
up in the capsule
"send me up a drink"
jokes Major Tom
the count goes on
109  Economy / Speculation / I have $1,048,576 cash. Will I still be able to buy even 100 bitcoins in 2030? on: April 13, 2016, 12:58:38 AM
Turning that topic on its head! Wink

In reality I hold bitcoin, not dollars. Smiley

I think the answer is no. The age of the billionaire will not be replaced by the age of the trillionaire but by the thousandaire.
110  Economy / Speculation / Re: ETH down == BTC up (for now) on: April 13, 2016, 12:13:32 AM
still laughing at those believing that ethereum could have matched bitcoin, i think they are new here, we have seen those shit plenty of time and always resolved in a big P&D

the butthurt is still strong in those that have missed the bitcoin train, and yes i would certainly buy everything at 400 wall, easy profit for the halving

You got it. People saw ETH as "cheap" and thought they could "get in on the ground floor" -- it's not so easy kids. But one way of learning is by paying tuition to Mr. Market.
111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2016, 11:48:35 PM
And people are fleeing the sinking ETH ship. A fool and his money are soon parted. My congrats to all of the shorts.
112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fasten your seatbelts: now it begins... on: April 12, 2016, 11:43:20 PM
30-day historical window has plunged to the 9th least volatile on record! Only days below this are Jan 3-10 2013. It is going to be hard for 30-day to be more stable than this. It stands at 0.858%.

60-day has made a small drop to position 31. It has crawled down to 1.486%. But in the coming <2 weeks I expect this number to plunge to near record levels due to the tail of the window dropping off a rather volatile mid-Feb.

The lack of excitement is exciting.
113  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2016, 04:59:00 AM
Volatility continues to drop over a 30 and 60 day period.

60-day now at 1.488% (32nd lowest day on record) and 30-day at 0.963% (15th lowest day on record).

Due to the way historical volatility is calculated I expect 30-day to remain stable while 60-day drops to near record levels over the next 7-14 days.
114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now on: April 08, 2016, 09:55:37 PM
Everyone should keep in mind that come the halving a new ATH in terms of market cap. will be much lower than the previous ATH.
115  Economy / Speculation / The longer the wait, the bigger the bang -volatility watch- on: April 07, 2016, 02:16:21 PM
30-day volatility is below 1% as of today for the first time since January 2013. The price has never been this high and this stable. Sort of exciting!

Some numbers:
60-day vol: 1.50753099% 36th least vol. on record
30-day vol: 0.97875074% 15th least vol. on record

Source: https://btcvol.info/ (standard deviation of daily returns for preceding 30- & 60-day windows)
116  Economy / Speculation / Re: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now on: April 07, 2016, 01:39:28 PM
Difficulty continues to increase, so the miners are ready to keep hashing come the halving.

Let's face it: bitcoin is going up. Smiley
117  Economy / Speculation / Re: 30-day volatility at 1.19%, 60-day at 1.69% on: April 05, 2016, 11:45:50 PM
And now 30-day volatility is at 1.08%. 60-day down to 1.55%.

As many have noticed periods of decreased volatility historically precede periods of increased volatility. Wink

I think we have at least another month of stability though. Time will tell.
118  Economy / Speculation / 30-day volatility at 1.19%, 60-day at 1.69% on: April 04, 2016, 07:15:10 PM
Lowest on record are 0.86% and 1.41% just after the last halving. Will volatility drop to new lows?

Edit: 0.79116124% and 1.3148784% are actually the lowest on record.
119  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year on: March 29, 2016, 12:29:00 PM
Energy Eaten By Bitcoin and what it mean for price by @bitcoin3000
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_owNVdYZlg

I estimate/calculate the market cap-to-TEEBB ratio and graph it over time in order to gain new insights into the historical, current, and future values of bitcoin.

data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kesn0wWxE5NvQUz4QE5h8SVrpNeqNJIHqxUM3cakHaw/edit#gid=0

graph 1: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/235/market-cap-vs-total-energy-eaten-by-bitcoin-with-estimated-mining-efficiency/

graph 2: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/234/market-cap-to-teebb-ratio/

Very interesting analysis. Have you considered updating your model with more accurate numbers for electricity cost?
120  Other / Meta / Re: Are forum mods asleep at the wheel for this section? on: March 23, 2016, 01:37:37 AM
We're here, we're just sleeping. Smiley

https://btcvol.info/
BTC vol index is @ 1.55% over the last 30 days. It rarely stays down for long.
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