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1081  Economy / Speculation / Re: Confirmed: Bitcoinica sold at $1.994 on: November 18, 2011, 01:59:22 AM
Saw some people discussing about the "manipulator" sold below $2.

It's not the manipulator, but Bitcoinica. Our system liquidated a lot of positions at the price around $2.

That explains a lot of the strange trading activity we see.  I would bet most trading on MtGox is program driven with scant human oversight.

It's ironic that a Utopian commodity/currency designed for freedom is being heavily affected by high frequency trading, short trading, and other tricks the 1% on Wall Street use.

Freedom?  Everyone's free to use whatever tools are available to help them get all the bitcoins they can.  If my resources were such that I could afford more mining power, and / or solar power to run it, I probably wouldn't have to use bitcoinica or even trade at all.

But BTC is the future and I'll be damned if I'm left behind this time.

Solar power is the most expensive form of energy generation as it stands now. It shouldn't be since sunlight is the most abundant form of energy in the world and a fraction of a percentage of the worlds sunlight could satisfy the entire worlds energy needs. Especially given the current economics, mining with solar power is just plain silly.
1082  Economy / Speculation / Re: Anybody else watching Mtgox Live? on: November 18, 2011, 01:57:34 AM
There's around 7200 coins mined a day to consider going forward, owned by many miners worldwide. Very probably those coins will start to enter the market soon, as we are coming toward the end of the month. Because of electric bills, and a lack of bounce back in the BTCUSD price, many will have no choice but to sell and cover mining costs.

Some of those coins will end up short, but with only 1:2.5 leverage and non-USD positions exposed to the underlying value loss when it comes to margin requirements, even at 10% the volatility is going to wipe some of those guys out as well.

Healthy $1 - $1.25 range here we come. GPU mining en mass is going the way of the dinosaur. Does anyone want/need really cheap rendering farms? You're about to get your chance with the coming fire sales.

If GPU mining en masse becomes a thing of the past given current BTC prices then Bitcoin is dead. There is no way anyone would shell out the big bucks for a FPGA board if there is no return. With remaining FPGA boards doing the only mining then a 51% attack becomes a very real problem and then prices will be near zero. Maintaining a minimum $1-2 BTC is essential for the health of the Bitcoin community and centralizing the power in the hands of a few miners would go against everything Bitcoin stands for. This should not be anything anyone should be wishing for.
1083  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 17, 2011, 05:15:38 AM
There is a lot of movement going on right now so there is a lot of money changing hands. Look at the volume for today already. Maybe our manipulator has even taken down his bidwall to stealth buy a bunch of coins at the dropped price. $0.15 drop for the wall going down and the volume being traded is not that bad at all.

Or...he's the one who sold.  What appears to be going on is he puts up a ton of money, let's bids accumulate ahead of his giant bid (because people feel more confident when there appears to be a lot of support behind them), and then sells down into what accumulates.

Not the first time that theory has been mentioned in this thread. I think this person is having too much fun manipulating the market to simply get out of it. My guess is a stock trader who can't legally do this in the real world or someone who has been watching too many 80's stock market movies. It is entirely possible bitcoin crashes down to zero but I do not see that happening. There is some stability point that will eventually reached and my guess is we are somewhere aroudn this area. Even just buying and selling a few thousand coins on these waves could make someone a lot of money.

As I said I think they are having too much fun to simply be cashing out. Of course the issue frequency won't drop until 2013 but once that does happen the price will increase significantly again. Wait to see another big bidwall within 6 hours, probably at 60k coins with all the extra cash he has earned from making people panic. The last time the wall disappeared was about this time of day as well.
1084  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 17, 2011, 05:06:08 AM
There is a lot of movement going on right now so there is a lot of money changing hands. Look at the volume for today already. Maybe our manipulator has even taken down his bidwall to stealth buy a bunch of coins at the dropped price. $0.15 drop for the wall going down and the volume being traded is not that bad at all.
1085  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 17, 2011, 04:55:40 AM
I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours.  It was painfully obvious what was going on.  I'm beyond baffled.

I certainly didn't buy any but perhaps he has taken down his bidwall to get some rest again. This is what seemed to happen the other day. Give it 6 hours and there will be another 50k coin bidwall. I noticed just before he got rid of it it was about 58k coins instead of 50k and it still hasnt dropped down near as much as the other day. He is trying to trigger a panic sell by some holders and they dont seem to be falling for it as much this time. 50k demand removed from the exchange is bound to drop prices a bit. I am still optimistic we will see the price climb above $3.50 in the next couple of days to a week.
1086  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Red Baloons paper on: November 15, 2011, 06:11:43 PM
Was the recent drop a result of that?



no

I would have to agree. The paper was published on the 10th so if it was because of that they werent very quick at all. This is profit taking and market manipulation. That is all.
1087  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 06:07:20 PM
The point of the bidwall is the opposite of what you think it is. It is not to hold the price up, it is to trigger panic sells. Notice that last night there was a single sell of something like 10000 BTC between 2.45 and 2.2. Let's say the average price was 2.3. Now the same seller is propping up 2.2. Any buys at 2.2 are profit for them because they just sold at 2.3. But even better, when things look ripe, they can drop the wall, and maybe kick start things with a little sell of 500 or so coins. Let the price plummit and then buy their same 10000 BTC back on the cheap as everyone panics.

This is what I have been saying. This person/group is getting a lot more coins by causing these swift drops, selling at the higher prices and buying at the low. Either that or they are manipulating the market to get some money out while maintaining their coin levels. I do not think this is someone cashing out but rather skimming off the top.
1088  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 05:51:50 PM
No point really, I just dislike seeing blanket statements calling people stupid and idiots for being the victim of a crime, but some people are just like that I suppose. 

Nobody likes it when innocent people are the victim of a crime either, but it doesn't turn me into a blithering, weepy mess. Just because you seem so willing to give your money away to those who do not think twice about sending their credit card details to a Nigeran Prince in exchange for $1 million, does not give you the moral high ground.

A fool and his money is easily parted - we should be trying to help people understand the best ways to keep their money safe, not give them the freedom to spend it as stupidly as possible while the rest of us are forced to foot the bill.

Crime can (and should) be dealt with by the legal system... not the financial system.

The mainstream financial system is a crime purported on the bottom 99%. Fiat currency is hidden slavery and we should all be up in arms about it but it seems only a few are willing to protest. I agree though that crime should be dealt with by the legal system but I don't know if the police would even bother filling out a report for stolen bitcoins. From my experience cops only go after violent crimes and it seems the financial crimes by and large go unpunished. Its too much work for the police despite their excessively high salaries. Maybe we need a seperate police force just to deal with financial crimes?
1089  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Red Baloons paper on: November 15, 2011, 05:46:58 PM
Its about halfway through the 18 page document I was looking at. Didnt spend too much time interpreting it because it didnt seem like it warranted my time or effort
1090  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Red Baloons paper on: November 15, 2011, 05:38:09 PM
I read most of that paper and it sounds like an attempt to try and scare people out of bitcoins by microsoft. The likelihood of someone actually being able to explain said flaw is near impossible and the headline is rather misleading. I especially liked the 2 page long calculus calculation. Someone has put a lot of time and effort into this and one has to ask themselves why. Bitcoins will survive as you said because this is not near as severe as they are making it out to be.
1091  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is it possible for us to get the price back up on: November 15, 2011, 05:19:35 AM
Or, if you'd rather not endure the wait time to wire $1 million to MtGox you can go down to the bank, take out $1 million, and then light it on fire.
that would be illegal.
Huh? Why?

Its illegal to destroy legal tender. Burning $1 million would therefore be illegal. Kind of like how you can be charged for drilling a hole in a penny (as stupid as it sounds). You may think its your money but its really the governments
1092  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 04:35:27 AM
So, what do we reckon about the fake $2.20 support and the rising price this time?  Another pump 'n dump cycle coming in the next couple of hours?  The market may be wisening up to this (finally) as there's only $1200 or so required to go from $2.30 to the $2.20 'wall'.

There'll probably be another build up period with volume piling up a little bit ahead of the bid wall pushing the price as high as 2.5, maybe even a little more.  Then the big wall(s) will come down, this guy'll sell into the fresh bids, there'll be another flurry of panic selling and we'll setup for it to happen again at a lower price.  My guess is this will keep happening until whoever this is has rid himself of bitcoins in exchange for money he can actually use for something.

Unfortunately this type of behavior is what makes it unattractive for vendors to accept BTC for purchases. Such volatility means they will not be able to accept BTC for purchases without say a 20% surcharge in order to hedge their bets against losses. You cannot pay your rent or taxes with Bitcoins. At least not anywhere I know. I bet this speculator is on this board and is one of the people trying to drive the price down to $1.50 or lower. Still based on previous data we could see a genuine increase back above $3 in the next couple of days.
1093  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 04:07:32 AM
I see they are back with 60k at 2.20. I wonder how long before they pull out this time if the trend continues?

Edit

Correction I see 50k
1094  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 03:56:44 AM
Just made 10% off that last "crash" to $2.20  Grin  I really like this "manipulator" guy.

I have 0 invested but when I go to sell the coins I made mining it would be nice if they were worth something lol. Still lets see what happens over the next few days. Quite frankly Im surprised MtGox hasnt suspended this account for causing so much volatility but i guess they dont care since they get a cut off every transaction anyways.
1095  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 03:51:19 AM
lol gone

Funny how you saw this before I could and I reloaded twice. Are you the manipulator?
1096  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 03:42:30 AM
I see now that they split the bidwall up but it is higher than 2.35 at the lowest. We are up to 2.488 now. I dont think they are trying to double down in coins but maintain coin volume and purely for profit taking. Whatever amount they buy at x price is the sell price-x times 50k in profit. Not bad for a days manipulating.
1097  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 03:26:10 AM
Wow, now back up to 2.45 in steps from the big 2.30 bidwall. Theoretically this could be the manipulator hedging his bets from his profits from the dive yesterday (still today here). Pretty good profit but it would be funny if they ended up losing money because of the price of bitcoins rising.
1098  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 03:12:33 AM
I am only suggesting that because if you look at the big sell off last month there was a big rally for the next 5 days afterwards up to $3.60. If you want to talk memories we could talk June although I feel the prices are much more sustainable now. Clearly this speculator believes we have hit the bottom of the market in the short term and believes it will go up from here. Should be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of days.
The rebound last month was not that fast. It was more like 5 days from the first crash before things started heading back, and much longer before they hit that peak.

True I guess I was looking at the 24th but after the crash aon the 17th in 5 days it was back up around 3.50. For all I know it might be the same speculator or some sort of a BTC hedge fund. Good eye though.
1099  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 02:59:40 AM
Yes, we are saved.  Good times are here again.  That $2.30 'wall' can't just disappear with one mouse click.

Yes it can but 50k is a lot of coins and I believe the same number they were playing with earlier. My gut feeling is they think they have the market bottomed out. Interesting to note there are a few more buys around 2.35 too. Like I said in my last post should be interesting to watch the market for the next few days.
1100  Economy / Speculation / Re: 50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over? on: November 15, 2011, 02:58:22 AM
I am only suggesting that because if you look at the big sell off last month there was a big rally for the next 5 days afterwards up to $3.60. If you want to talk memories we could talk June although I feel the prices are much more sustainable now. Clearly this speculator believes we have hit the bottom of the market in the short term and believes it will go up from here. Should be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of days.
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