Jesus. 953.6 BTC buy order.
BOOM. No better time for a whale to buy than into a giant wall.  |
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Any coin is valuable only as much as its infrastructure is developed (user base, hashing speed, merchant support).
There should be something analogous to the P/E ratio. Basically: MarketCap/(Infrastructure+Devteam+TrackRecord+Userbase+MerchantAdoption+Advantages-Disadvantages) All else is speculation in the purest sense: merely speculating that this particular alt-ledger with its particular trade-offs will gain the infrastructure, dev team, track record, userbase, and merchant adoption to warrant a given market cap or given ratio to Bitcoin's market cap. Moreover, that it will do so at the speed of crypto. This leaves prospective alt-ledgers with a tough choice: just be a minor tweak of Bitcoin and ride on the coattails of its dev team as much as possible, or do something really innovative that Bitcoin can't ever do and find yourself so far behind that the world moves to the Bitcoin Standard long before your alt-ledger can really get out of the gate. The altcoins had better get cracking if they want a chance at the table to divvy up Bitcoin's crumbs. Litecoin is positioned well due to getting in early, Namecoin has neat potential, and Peercoin might have something to it, but besides a few novelties there's so far very little to be impressed by in the alt-ledger world. Time is running out. |
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I think bitcoin might end up like a savings account, that can easily be withdrawn into alts, which can then be spent.
The limitation of bitcoin being a bit on the slow side is then less important, and it means that alts will compliment Bitcoins rise and vice versa.
The speed thing is a total myth. Bitcoin is far and away the fastest at achieving a given level of secure confirmation. Not only does it enjoy vastly more mining power, it also is way more closely monitored and has a tremendously stronger dev team. "Faster" confirmations are only a matter of granularity anyway, so only the first confirmation is faster in, say, Litecoin. Except it's only 1/4 as secure as the first Bitcoin confirmation...at best! In reality it's way less than that because Bitcoin is far more secure fundamentally because it has almost all the talent monitoring it for irregularities, as well as almost all the mining power. Now assuming a scenario where Litecoin were to take over as #1 and attract all the talent and mining power, it might be superior because of the faster first confirmation, but this also means more orphan blocks. Whether this trade-off makes Litecoin slightly better on balance is unknown. It may make it disastrously less secure for all anyone knows; it's never been stress tested anything like Bitcoin has. Litecoin has a huge amount of catching up to do in terms of its track record, and the rest of the alt-ledgers are even farther behind. It will be a long time before the smart money puts its faith in Litecoin as a store of value; it's truly all speculative at this point, in the truest sense of the word. With Bitcoin there is actually store of value functionality created by its track record, much like gold. The alt-ledgers are sorely lacking there, and moreover additional stores of value aren't very helpful when the only difference in that aspect is volatility (whoever you believe on the confirmation speed issue, it's largely irrelevant when it comes to store of value). |
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The market is slowly waking up to the idea that in the future, conversion between altcoins (and bitcoin) will become nearly frictionless, removing any barrier for value to shift between altcoins. Due to open source, any improvement to the bitcoin software can instantly be adopted by the altcoins. The market caps of alt-ledgers will ultimately reflect their utility - primarily their utility to Bitcoin, thanks to frictionless conversion. There will be little if any utility in an endless supply of blockchains for merchant adoption (Bitcoin, Litecoin, or another will hit the sweet spot), so in terms of inflation issues we are talking about store of value here. Why on earth would you store your value in any but the most scrutinized, monitored, long-running, stress-tested, brilliant dev-backed blockchain? I could see diversifying into a few alt-ledgers, but not more than a few, and only in proportion to their excellence in terms of dev team and track record. The rest would be speculation based on future promise, but that is even more limited. The marginal utility of each additional alt-ledger very quickly drops off. All this amounts to very, very little inflation in the grand scheme of things. Even 200% total inflation would be negligible from a present-day perspective. Do you really care if 1 BTC ends up being worth $1,000,000 or $3,000,000? Even if LTC magically kept rising to equal the BTC market cap (which would be insane since it doesn't have nearly the dev support or track record), it would only slow down the average yearly tenfold growth of Bitcoin's price by 3-4 months. Moreover, this could be a solution to bitcoin's deflation problem Deflation is not a problem. At all. Endless inflation would be, but that can't happen for reasons explained above. I do grant that if, say, LTC rises high enough it could create the perception that altcoins could proliferate endlessly, and that could cause a short-term crash, but long-term not at all. People would soon figure out that it's all about where the development talent, the mining support, and the track record is. The first two gravitate toward the biggest or most useful ledger, and the final one is a permanent advantage Bitcoin has unless a catastrophe happens (and if it survives that, it's track record might be better than ever, with no other ledgers having weathered such a catastrophe). |
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Is it possible for value to be objective? Absolutely not. Valuation requires a valuer. It's not even coherent to speak of "objective value." |
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Might as well mention here that Exante's Bitcoin hedge fund was apparently the best performing hedge fund in history. I remember being so impressed that the Jim Rogers / George Soros Quantum Fund made 4000% return in 10 years. How about 5000% in 10 months?
It looks like the BIT may achieve similar distinction.
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Don't think alt-coins, think alt-ledgers. Then it becomes obvious why altcoins aren't to be feared and there is no significant inflation. There are purposes for alternative ledgers, but they are fairly limited, and you only need one or two for most conceivable uses. The only ones that survive will be those that enhance Bitcoin in some way, such as by providing better mixing for bitcoins or helping with arbitrage.
Bitcoin is the company that makes the holodecks, and Litecoin is the company that manages the jizzmoppers. Jizzmopping is a valuable service, but its value is limited and always subservient to holodeck creation. So stock in either one should do well in percentage terms over the long term, unless of course the jizzmopper management firm is replaced by a better one.
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That's true but at least you don't get taxed twice, since there is a credit/deduction for taxes paid to another government. |
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Next major run up will occur between mid sept and early December 2013.
nice call Indeed. |
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Litecoin is approaching a tenth of Bitcoin's market cap. That's probably too high given Litecoin's utility: hedge, tumbler, arbitrage instrument, testing ground for new ideas, and fallback in case of catastrophe. The market cap doesn't need to be much higher (as a % of BTC market cap) for those functions, except maybe hedging, so it won't be.
You can see the hedge function at work very clearly in the past few days: people want less exposure to Bitcoin but don't want fiat, so they buy altcoins. Once it's clear Bitcoin is again on the move upward, the coins will drain out of the alts and back into BTC. The altcoins are like Bitcoin's inflatable cushion. They reduce volatility and even existential risk.
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I'm not claiming it's the government. I was just trying to think of an organization that has a lot of money. You have to admit, absolutely nothing happening for five days and then all of a sudden, on a dime, everything explodes. There's always a reason. Maybe was just another infomercial in China that 40,000 people happen to see at the same time. Maybe it was an article in Europe stating that a new chain of restaurants is accepting bitcoin. I don't know what it was, but it was something. The timing was too specific.
Look at the long-term log chart. It's all right there. We got curvy, straightened out via consolidation, and resumed straight exponential mini-trend/bubble. Here's that log chart:  |
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I'm not claiming it's the government. I was just trying to think of an organization that has a lot of money. You have to admit, absolutely nothing happening for five days and then all of a sudden, on a dime, everything explodes. There's always a reason. Maybe was just another infomercial in China that 40,000 people happen to see at the same time. Maybe it was an article in Europe stating that a new chain of restaurants is accepting bitcoin. I don't know what it was, but it was something. The timing was too specific.
Look at the long-term log chart. It's all right there. We got curvy, straightened out, and resumed straight exponential mini-trend/bubble. |
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Dollar heading to 0, now $1 is almost 0.001 BTC and going down fast... Sell!!!
So, truth time: who panic bought there?
And then, just look at the depth till $1000. Almost 10k coins on Stamp, and then? Only 3k coins to $8000.
People really believes in psychological barriers and such, a lot want out at $900-$1000. Weak hands will never learn. Anyhow I guess that at $1,000 there is a lot of people that won't have to worry about money ever again.
getting out at $900 is like getting out at $9 on steroids Agreed. And you know what happened with the guys that cashed out at $9-$14 after the 2011 bubble pop. They got 1-2 millions, bought nice cars and houses, and now just don't log in the forums to be able to forget that they would now have close to $100M. Pretty mind blowing stuff. That real-life stories are a good example of how you play this game: you invest what you can afford to lose, and you go for the long run, holding to the majority of your coins. The potential and growth are so huge that by gradually cashing out you can live OK while holding to the vast majority of your coins. If only they could've seen rpietila's Bitcoin investment guide. This is why few early adopters will be in the new rich. |
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I would rather explain this by goxbux cashout. Other exchanges are not following the widening bid/ask spread at all.
It's a tough call, unlike a month ago where everything was obvious. It could really go either way, but I think 65/35 odds we continue upward in the next week or two. I'll see how things look when I wake up. |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0As for non-crypto holdings...it probably depends on your life situation and what you know about. Also take into account that Bitcoin is the only one of those you can really take with you if you're forced to leave your country, etc.
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