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641  Economy / Speculation / Re: November 2013 Bubble Analysis on: November 19, 2013, 02:52:46 PM
So far it's been amazing how accurate the general sentiment on this forum (I mean the general sentiment of the relatively oldtimers and some other astute ones) has been been on this surge. Between the markets' shrugging off the SR shutdown, plus China, plus the BIT, plus intense and way more positive media coverage, a big rise was very very predictable and many were predicting it (including me myself).

On October 14th I posted the following reasons why the price was about to surge:

14 big reasons:

  • China
  • Second Market Bitcoin Investment Trust delayed effect
  • SR had 100,000 users engaging in active commerce, proving Bitcoin is a very real medium of exchange
  • SR shutdown caused only a flash crash, proving the current price level is solid*
  • SR shutdown generated a lot of Bitcoin publicity, the trial guarantees more, plus feds have Bitcoin wallet
  • DPR's huge cold wallet is reportedly untouchable; off-shore account holders' ears are perking up
  • SR shutdown proved SR was not a critical part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, not even for price support (see above)
  • SR shutdown cleaned the image of Bitcoin up in many people's minds, even though others like it will sprout
  • Global financial market turmoil coming to a head; Jim Rogers: "this Fall is probably the beginning of the end"
  • US government shutdown silliness, people are worried and the US is showing serious signs of imminent meltdown
  • China-EU agreement to cut out USD in trade, a huge blow to USD reserve currency status - one of many
  • Ultra-loose Janet Yellen appointed as next Fed chief, QE to infinity!
  • 6 months since last bubble, dust settled, now finally clear to people that it was a legit price correction (upwards)
  • Talk of more Cyprus-style "haircuts" on depositors, taking the Keynesian "hoarding=bad!" to its logical endpoint

*Remember March 11? Slow orphan blocks, hard fork, double-spend --> FLASH CRASH --> price ultimately unaffected, proving in people's minds that the growth from January through March 11 wasn't just silly speculation and vapors but real support, so then people threw caution to the wind and piled in without reservation

To me it was the easiest call ever, and I said as much. Many people who I recognized from the early 2013 bubble were similarly confident in an imminent price rise.

Surging up toward $1000 was considered quite bold but many here predicted it nonetheless, with a correction back toward around $500 then settling in between, and that looks like exactly what is happening.

Then now, by looking at the log charts and seeing when the moves look exponential even on the log chart, when they start curving upward, most of these same people have been able to anticipate the imminent correction this week.

One thing about a market with more mature, experienced investors is that it is less volatile. They are waiting to damp the tops and catch the bottoms. Now with the newbie China investors here it still gets dicey, but I feel like the oldtimers are doing pretty well holding the fort down.

As to where we'll go from here, since we had a nice big correction now it seems we'll do the familiar dragon/alpaca pattern, which is basically oscillating in the triangle SlipperySlope drew above and then maybe some steadiness before going higher. I think there is yet more steam in this run-up, but double exponential growth cannot be tolerated, not even in Bitcoin. Bitcoin likes exponential growth, which is insane enough already.
642  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling it: Peak of $1,600 by the end of the year on: November 19, 2013, 02:33:26 PM
Although 1600 $ begins to sound reasonable; I do think that 10000 $ is still a bridge too far (for now)..

Just to clarify, so do I.
643  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: November 19, 2013, 12:26:34 PM
Last time I think it was Thursday.
644  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 19, 2013, 10:14:46 AM
Hmm...

645  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling it: Peak of $1,600 by the end of the year on: November 19, 2013, 09:54:44 AM
My outlandish call in Feb/March/April for $10,000 by Christmas doesn't look so impossible anymore Grin
646  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 19, 2013, 09:02:43 AM
It's basically either we correct/consolidate now or we have a large correction/crash from quadruple digits. I'd rather see this thing take a breather for now and continue chugging along steadily for the run to quintuple digits.

By the way, congrats to all who saw this giant rally coming from a mile away back in Sept/Oct. Easiest call ever.
647  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 19, 2013, 08:46:00 AM
Just one more blip to go.
648  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 19, 2013, 08:23:00 AM
I guess this the boiling frog analogy.  It's so minor they figure no harm no foul, let the people play a little with Internet money.

Bitcoin: Eating out the substance of the money trust since 2009.
649  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 19, 2013, 07:42:53 AM
What ended up on that US Senate discussion?

I second this. Can someone wrap it up. The building my office was in burned down yesterday (~10-15 BTC in casascius coins lost in the fire, among other things)... so I wasn't able to follow.

Sorry to hear that, molecular. Somehow crazy things end up happening during these moonshoots. Maybe someone there was watching the price and left a burner on a cig fell out of their hand or something.
650  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:39:34 PM
Well the last bolt has been released from the floodgates now...

EDIT: Except the lag. But between three exchanges we can pull through somehow.
651  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 18, 2013, 09:37:15 PM
Gold who cares. Bitcoin exploding into the stratosphere.
652  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:32:12 PM
Hearing is OVER?!!!

NOOO. I want them to say.... BUY BITCOIN NOW!

At the last minute, Chamath Palihapitiya pops up and says, "Bitcoin is a huge, huge, huge, HUGE deal. We expect it to be $500,000 to a million per coin in a few years. This thing is gonna rip!!"
653  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:25:16 PM
China about to break 5000
654  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:23:56 PM
Probably appropriate - you Yanks do loud so much better than we do somehow...  

Choo choo, old chap Smiley
655  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:08:08 PM
Let's count how many times we've heard the words 'illicit actors'.

Are they talking about porno actors?
656  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:07:31 PM
http://www.irs.gov/uac/Four-Things-to-Know-About-Bartering-1
657  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 08:43:47 PM
I love Carper relating Bitcoin to the early internet over and over, hehe.

EDIT: YES JENNIFER! It IS an apt comparison!!

This is the very best angle possible. Highly bullish if this becomes the dominant narrative going forward. Incredibly bullish in fact.
Yes, in a couple years we are all going to look at this moment, as we collectively sat staring at our screens, typing away on Bitcointalk as a defining moment. The next chapter begins!

I certainly hope it works out that way. The "financial Internet" is a term that may catch on, more so when things like colored coins and maybe mastercoin come on line.
658  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 08:38:55 PM
I love Carper relating Bitcoin to the early internet over and over, hehe.

EDIT: YES JENNIFER! It IS an apt comparison!!

This is the very best angle possible. Highly bullish if this becomes the dominant narrative going forward. Incredibly bullish in fact.
659  Economy / Speculation / Re: Please someone tell me how to trade this great bubble on: November 18, 2013, 08:31:50 PM
I think there's enough risk and return already. If you want to amplify it that just forces you to time the market on a finer scale. Why make your job more difficult? Nothing wrong with setting a little aside to catch the tops and bottoms, though - that smooths out volatility and does everyone a service.

Just study the log chart and you can find some recurring patterns.
660  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Litecoin more than doubled today on: November 18, 2013, 07:30:51 PM
Litecoin wasn't moving for a long time as Bitcoin rose and doubled and doubled, so then Litecoin sprinted to make up for lost time.
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