I'm giving 100% ROI away to anyone who thinks pirate is a fraud

[yochdog]

Jesum.....have any of you bettors really thought this through? 

Don't you think a guy willing to put up $100,000 with 2:1 just MIGHT know something you don't? 

Alarm bells are ringing. 

It's actually 1:1 (or "2 for 1") but that thought has crossed my mind as well.

Ahhh, I see that now.....my bad. 

My point remains the same.  Anytime someone is so eager to wager 100K, red flags should be going up everywhere. 

[Matthew N. Wright]

Jesum.....have any of you bettors really thought this through? 

Don't you think a guy willing to put up $100,000 with 2:1 just MIGHT know something you don't? 

Alarm bells are ringing. 

It's actually 1:1 (or "2 for 1") but that thought has crossed my mind as well.

Ahhh, I see that now.....my bad. 

My point remains the same.  Anytime someone is so eager to wager 100K, red flags should be going up everywhere. 

Is this many enough?

[Gyrsur]

Jesum.....have any of you bettors really thought this through?  

Don't you think a guy willing to put up $100,000 with 2:1 just MIGHT know something you don't?  

Alarm bells are ringing.  

interesting question is who will be the insurance for this MNW bet?

EDIT: so let us hedge all risks togehter and we are safe? ohh i forgot, someone has to pay the bill!  

[finkleshnorts]

I will be utterly shocked to find out that Pirate actually avhieved the kind of mathematically astronomical returns that he promised, over the course of several months with exponential growth of investors. Shocked.

That math just brings me back every time. Whatever Matthew thinks he knows, surely he must be mistaken.

[yochdog]

Jesum.....have any of you bettors really thought this through? 

Don't you think a guy willing to put up $100,000 with 2:1 just MIGHT know something you don't? 

Alarm bells are ringing. 

interesting question is where who will be the insurance for this MNW bet?

I think it is pretty clear MNW thinks/knows there is no way he loses the bet.  It has the appearance that he is taking risk, when in fact he is not.

Its like the guy betting huge on a fixed boxing match.  He might look like a risk taker to a uninformed bystander, but in reality he is anything but.  

This thing is fixed.  

[muyuu]

Jesum.....have any of you bettors really thought this through? 

Don't you think a guy willing to put up $100,000 with 2:1 just MIGHT know something you don't? 

Alarm bells are ringing. 

interesting question is where who will be the insurance for this MNW bet?

I think it is pretty clear MNW thinks/knows there is no way he loses the bet.  It has the appearance that he is taking risk, when in fact he is not.

Its like the guy betting huge on a fixed boxing match.  He might look like a risk taker to a uninformed bystander, but in reality he is anything but.  

This thing is fixed.  

You must fold at every bluff, I reckon.

[Matthew N. Wright]

This thing is fixed.  

Lies. Care to bet that it's fixed since you're so sure? I'm sure I'll win. How's 10,000BTC?

[Koooooj]

The way I see this bet is as having several outcomes:

1: MNW knows something we don't, and Pirate does pay
-In this case, I will be so happy to receive my investment from Pirate that I won't miss the bet.

2: MNW doesn't know something (or is wrong in what he knows) and Pirate doesn't pay; MNW honors his bet
-In this case I will recover some of my losses and call it a good day

3: MNW doesn't plan to pay, and is banking on what he sees as a long shot that Pirate does pay out
-I trust that this is not the case, but even if it is, I don't LOSE anything.

The only case where I have to pay BTC is one where I have already been paid more BTC.  From the perspective of a hedger, it is a good deal; the amount I bet (as compared to my holdings with Pirate) is my level of confidence in Pirate.  I'll say for the record that I will make more money if Pirate pays than if he defaults, which I chose since MNW is willing to front up to ~$100,000 to assure the forum of.

Happy sailing!

[yochdog]

Jesum.....have any of you bettors really thought this through? 

Don't you think a guy willing to put up $100,000 with 2:1 just MIGHT know something you don't? 

Alarm bells are ringing. 

interesting question is where who will be the insurance for this MNW bet?

I think it is pretty clear MNW thinks/knows there is no way he loses the bet.  It has the appearance that he is taking risk, when in fact he is not.

Its like the guy betting huge on a fixed boxing match.  He might look like a risk taker to a uninformed bystander, but in reality he is anything but.  

This thing is fixed.  

You must fold at every bluff, I reckon.

Hardly.  Poker does not have the element of someone else knowing any more than you (excluding a cheat).  The information is symetric.

Here it is 180 flipped degrees....the opportunities for asymetrical information are MYRIAD.  

[Matthew N. Wright]

Since this thread has degraded into a MYRIAD of conspiracy theories as to why I could possibly be braver than anyone in this entire community, I'll leave you guys to your cowardess and confusion. I'm tired of repeating myself (now I understand how Pirate must feel) and it's almost time to lock the betting thread.

[yochdog]

This thing is fixed.  

Lies. Care to bet that it's fixed since you're so sure? I'm sure I'll win. How's 10,000BTC?

ROFL

Why don't we just whip out our dicks and have a sword fight?  

(And what a stupid response to begin with......as if there is any objective way to bet on whether another bet is fixed)

[Gyrsur]

Happy sailing!

sounds to me like socialism, sorry!

[Rassah]

Jesum.....have any of you bettors really thought this through? 

Don't you think a guy willing to put up $100,000 with 2:1 just MIGHT know something you don't? 

Alarm bells are ringing. 

I don't think you know Matt very well. Doing crazy stupid shit is kind of his MO. I think this bet has turned from "Was it a Ponzi?" to "Is Matt crazy?" about 20 pages ago, and it's an easy bet, since the Pirate thing is extremely likely a Ponzi, and Matt is definitely crazy.

[Matthew N. Wright]

Jesum.....have any of you bettors really thought this through? 

Don't you think a guy willing to put up $100,000 with 2:1 just MIGHT know something you don't? 

Alarm bells are ringing. 

I don't think you know Matt very well. Doing crazy stupid shit is kind of his MO. I think this bet has turned from "Was it a Ponzi?" to "Is Matt crazy?" about 20 pages ago, and it's an easy bet, since the Pirate thing is extremely likely a Ponzi, and Matt is definitely crazy.

Wisdom.

[muyuu]

You must fold at every bluff, I reckon.

Hardly.  Poker does not have the element of someone else knowing any more than you (excluding a cheat).  The information is symetric.

Here it is 180 flipped degrees....the opportunities for asymetrical information are MYRIAD.  

In poker the information is always asymmetrical. Each player knows his own hand exclusively.

The difference is though, that you wouldn't bluff if you knew you opponent can't fold.

[yochdog]

You must fold at every bluff, I reckon.

Hardly.  Poker does not have the element of someone else knowing any more than you (excluding a cheat).  The information is symetric.

Here it is 180 flipped degrees....the opportunities for asymetrical information are MYRIAD.  

In poker the information is always asymmetrical. Each player knows his own hand exclusively.

The difference is though, that you wouldn't bluff if you knew you opponent can't fold.

The common cards are what I am referring to.....always symetrical. 

anyway, poker is a terrible analogy to this bet. 

[sapoleon]

25BTC
12a52kRZfsGiqAUJamSckE2cQMZT7SSQHo
I sold all my coins the days before the crash, still have some money at mt.gox to cover that bet. In case i lose and the BTC/EUR ratio goes up to much i demand as pirate himself 2 weeks to get the missing coins.

[Matthew N. Wright]

25BTC
12a52kRZfsGiqAUJamSckE2cQMZT7SSQHo
I sold all my coins the days before the crash, still have some money at mt.gox to cover that bet. In case i lose and the BTC/EUR ratio goes up to much i demand as pirate himself 2 weeks to get the missing coins.

Approved.

[el_rlee]

Hi Matthew,

 as it seams your brain disorder is now at a stage where you take a 13 post user good for 250$... (on the evil INTERNET, haha),
please let me up my bet and put in another additional
25btc
1FWMPAwHkqeTh9jdEo9YBoFztYbobZUPFS

[SgtSpike]

I'm with you yochdog... which is why I only bet 5 BTC.