I'm giving 100% ROI away to anyone who thinks pirate is a fraud

[Rassah]

I just had a really f'ed up thought:
Bitcoin cannot be seized...
If I was in pirateat40's place, I would keep that entire 500k BTC in Bitcoin, then just before defaulting move it to a brain wallet address. Then I would just let things play out, get arrested, and go to jail. 7 years or so later, if ,VERY conservatively, Bitcoin triples in price, I'm out of jail with $15,000,000 in my account, and can retire. A few years in prison isn't too bad for making that much money that fast.

[Matthew N. Wright]

I just had a really f'ed up thought:
Bitcoin cannot be seized...
If I was in pirateat40's place, I would keep that entire 500k BTC in Bitcoin, then just before defaulting move it to a brain wallet address. Then I would just let things play out, get arrested, and go to jail. 7 years or so later, if ,VERY conservatively, Bitcoin triples in price, I'm out of jail with $15,000,000 in my account, and can retire. A few years in prison isn't too bad for making that much money that fast.

Talk about long on bitcoin...

[muyuu]

I just had a really f'ed up thought:
Bitcoin cannot be seized...
If I was in pirateat40's place, I would keep that entire 500k BTC in Bitcoin, then just before defaulting move it to a brain wallet address. Then I would just let things play out, get arrested, and go to jail. 7 years or so later, if ,VERY conservatively, Bitcoin triples in price, I'm out of jail with $15,000,000 in my account, and can retire. A few years in prison isn't too bad for making that much money that fast.

I wouldn't burn 7 years of my youth in jail for any amount of money. To each his own I guess.

[dree12]

Whatever happens this is going to be a turning point for the forums.

Disagree. EPIC FAIL full of lulz is fairly standard course for this forum.

Not this epic usually. This will pick #1 in the FAIL list, relegating Bitcoinica's fiasco to #2 (pending consequences to the people involved). That was a turning point and so will be this.

You forgot MyBitcoin, and MtGox crash and rollback.

That's prehistory in Bitcoin terms. The vast majority of the forum today wasn't around when MtGox crashed. MyBitcoin wasn't all that.

Someone isn't aware of how MyBitcoin was the largest BTC and USD value denominated hack/scam/theft of all time. If (and I consider this a very implausible situation) Pirate defaults on this, then it will be the greatest BTC and USD denominated scam/default, but still peanuts compared to a possible Mt. Gox disappearance (>1M BTC is in their possession).

[Fluttershy]

I want one extra condition placed on this gambling: if it's discovered that Matthew is helping Pirate pay back the money in any way, it will not count as Pirate paying back the money and Matthew be declared the loser.

[drakahn]

I want one extra condition placed on this gambling: if it's discovered that Matthew is helping Pirate pay back the money in any way, it will not count as Pirate paying back the money and Matthew be declared the loser.

Not relevant... the bet is whether or not pirate pays back, not how.

[nimda]

I want one extra condition placed on this gambling: if it's discovered that Matthew is helping Pirate pay back the money in any way, it will not count as Pirate paying back the money and Matthew be declared the loser.

Screw that
I'm sure pirate's investors will be very happy if matthew helps pirate pay them back.

[muyuu]

Someone isn't aware of how MyBitcoin was the largest BTC and USD value denominated hack/scam/theft of all time. If (and I consider this a very implausible situation) Pirate defaults on this, then it will be the greatest BTC and USD denominated scam/default, but still peanuts compared to a possible Mt. Gox disappearance (>1M BTC is in their possession).

Unlikely? many people are willing to bet on it. We will see how that goes.

I deem this case more of a turning point because this for sure would not a hack. This would be a massive breach of trust. I'm not sure many people would learn anything from it though.

[Fluttershy]

I want one extra condition placed on this gambling: if it's discovered that Matthew is helping Pirate pay back the money in any way, it will not count as Pirate paying back the money and Matthew be declared the loser.

Screw that
I'm sure pirate's investors will be very happy if matthew helps pirate pay them back.

I'm all for the investors being paid back, but not out of the pockets of the people betting against Matthew; it would also be a way for Pirate to keep the money, repair his good name at no cost and run the scam again.

[Matthew N. Wright]

I want one extra condition placed on this gambling: if it's discovered that Matthew is helping Pirate pay back the money in any way, it will not count as Pirate paying back the money and Matthew be declared the loser.

Screw that
I'm sure pirate's investors will be very happy if matthew helps pirate pay them back.

I'm all for the investors being paid back, but not out of the pockets of the people betting against Matthew; it would also be a way for Pirate to keep the money, repair his good name at no cost and run the scam again.

How could anyone be paid back from my pockets? I don't get any money unless he pays everyone back. 

[Fluttershy]

How could anyone be paid back from my pockets? I don't get any money unless he pays everyone back. 

Quite simple, he agrees to pay everyone back only because you're going to reimburse him with part of the profits from the betting. The plan was to never steal money from the investors, it was to scam the gambling subforum with a sublime hustle. Shame it was just too obvious.

[muyuu]

How could anyone be paid back from my pockets? I don't get any money unless he pays everyone back. 

You are not escrowing your bets, so you could be paying part of the debt in advance to Pirate and then making it back with a profit. Basic arbitrage.

But I trust you wouldn't be involved in something like that, and I also don't think you have nowhere near the funds Pirate needs.

[MagnaGen]

Just out of curiosity what is the total amount of BTC bet on this? Anyone keeping track?

[nimda]

Shit, I missed it. All the PPT's on GLBSE dropped below 50%, and I missed it.

[dree12]

Someone isn't aware of how MyBitcoin was the largest BTC and USD value denominated hack/scam/theft of all time. If (and I consider this a very implausible situation) Pirate defaults on this, then it will be the greatest BTC and USD denominated scam/default, but still peanuts compared to a possible Mt. Gox disappearance (>1M BTC is in their possession).

Unlikely? many people are willing to bet on it. We will see how that goes.

I deem this case more of a turning point because this for sure would not a hack. This would be a massive breach of trust. I'm not sure many people would learn anything from it though.

Although I am not an investor in BS&T, my position is that there is insufficient evidence to declare a default, and the exit strategy so far is not indicative of a looming default or an elaborate scam set up. There are many reasons why I believe this to be so, but they do not belong in this thread.

[bitcoiners]

Shit, I missed it. All the PPT's on GLBSE dropped below 50%, and I missed it.

Lol, like it matters anyways.  No one is seeing any money.  Period.

There are thousands invested with pirate.  How many have seen their money back?  Oh, that's right!

Matt, when you want to send coins is fine as long as it's before the 10th.  Just be ready because I own ppt and I haven't seen shit.  Call it a hedge.  I'll be expecting my 250 btc though.

[nimda]

Shit, I missed it. All the PPT's on GLBSE dropped below 50%, and I missed it.

Lol, like it matters anyways.  No one is seeing any money.  Period.

It mattered a lot. I would have bought every single one of them. There's only 3 scenarios:

I buy a PPT for 0.4 BTC and place a 0.5 BTC bet here
1. Pirate pays. I get 1 BTC from the PPT and give 0.5 to Matthew. 0.1 BTC profit
2. Pirate doesn't pay. I get 0 BTC from the PPT and get 0.5 from Matthew. 0.1 BTC profit.
3. Either the issuer of the PPT or Matthew defaults. 0.4 loss.

Given that #3 is very unlikely IMO, it would have been a win-win scenario.

[Rassah]

Although I am not an investor in BS&T, my position is that there is insufficient evidence to declare a default, and the exit strategy so far is not indicative of a looming default or an elaborate scam set up. There are many reasons why I believe this to be so, but they do not belong in this thread.

As someone who had experience with a similar ponzi, I can tell you that this one is following it perfectly. The guy in charge continuing to communicate, claims that money is tied up in assets, apologies and attempts to get the money back, and very slowly paying people back from sold assets over the course of a few weeks, before finally collapsing. If this wasn't a ponzi, I'd like to know what business you can think of that can consistently pay 7%, or even 3% a week for a year.

[bitcoiners]

Although I am not an investor in BS&T, my position is that there is insufficient evidence to declare a default, and the exit strategy so far is not indicative of a looming default or an elaborate scam set up. There are many reasons why I believe this to be so, but they do not belong in this thread.

As someone who had experience with a similar ponzi, I can tell you that this one is following it perfectly. The guy in charge continuing to communicate, claims that money is tied up in assets, apologies and attempts to get the money back, and very slowly paying people back from sold assets over the course of a few weeks, before finally collapsing. If this wasn't a ponzi, I'd like to know what business you can think of that can consistently pay 7%, or even 3% a week for a year.

Here is everyone's answer. Thanks Rassah!

Edit: BTW, nimda do you have money on this bet? no? fuck off.  how's that?

[nimda]

Edit: BTW, nimda do you have money on this bet? no? fuck off.  how's that?

wat

I show you the math behind a unique hedging scenario and you tell me to "fuck off?"

wat