Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

Hope so !
Like the last day of january (+15k)
Good old time when a 500btc bet was common  

We just need 3338 Btc more to match fiat february sum..

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[MeatPopsicle]

A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

For those too lazy to dig:

Code:

      First Bet      |      Last Bet       |     bets      |   winnings    |    profit
---------------------+---------------------+---------------+---------------+--------------
 2013-03-28 19:11:46 | 2013-03-29 11:20:48 | 2394.00000000 | 2757.05458660 | 363.05458660   

[wtfvanity]

A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

For those too lazy to dig:

Code:

      First Bet      |      Last Bet       |     bets      |   winnings    |    profit
---------------------+---------------------+---------------+---------------+--------------
 2013-03-28 19:11:46 | 2013-03-29 11:20:48 | 2394.00000000 | 2757.05458660 | 363.05458660   

Ahh the conspiracy theories now. Was the whale trying to make a profit for SD for the end of the month to bring shares up? Was the whale trying to score a couple of big wins to bring SD shares to their knees?

Got to love the whales. Almost as much as mystery miners or the manipulator!

[dooglus]

Total of 92 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-30 12:23pm (up to block 228800)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   114831 |       3 (0.00003) |  113039 |    1789 |    1378.20 |    3841.37 |   140.32 |  -2463.16 | 278.723
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6274 |       0 (0.00000) |    5727 |     547 |     104.35 |       0.11 |    21.66 |    104.24 |   0.107
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8588 |       1 (0.00012) |    8127 |     460 |     132.47 |     160.08 |    14.53 |    -27.61 | 120.846
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14947 |       5 (0.00035) |   14456 |     486 |     295.37 |     432.33 |    10.10 |   -136.96 | 146.369
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    16107 |       1 (0.00006) |   15654 |     452 |     559.48 |       5.37 |    22.09 |    554.10 |   0.961
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    23182 |      11 (0.00048) |   22757 |     414 |    1360.62 |    1537.59 |     1.44 |   -176.96 | 113.006
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    25888 |      32 (0.00126) |   25365 |     491 |    1906.92 |    1521.12 |    55.90 |    385.79 |  79.768
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20515 |      38 (0.00190) |   20007 |     470 |    2369.77 |    1562.84 |    48.42 |    806.92 |  65.949
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25742 |     112 (0.00442) |   25230 |     400 |    5990.76 |    8651.09 |    13.24 |  -2660.33 | 144.407
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36587 |     294 (0.00820) |   35579 |     714 |    8206.72 |    6797.11 |    10.09 |   1409.60 |  82.824
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   128912 |    1954 (0.01522) |  126403 |     555 |   40746.49 |   35990.15 |     2.18 |   4756.34 |  88.327
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25263 |     578 (0.02321) |   24325 |     360 |    7954.77 |    8555.96 |    15.10 |   -601.19 | 107.558
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    82558 |    2539 (0.03090) |   79618 |     401 |   40710.53 |   36583.77 |     9.38 |   4126.75 |  89.863
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29824 |    1353 (0.04608) |   28008 |     463 |    9785.42 |   10619.59 |    25.30 |   -834.16 | 108.525
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35777 |    2195 (0.06205) |   33181 |     401 |    7693.79 |    7500.46 |    31.38 |    193.33 |  97.487
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49667 |    4524 (0.09196) |   44669 |     474 |   16757.68 |   18387.04 |     7.40 |  -1629.35 | 109.723
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   194279 |   23776 (0.12272) |  169964 |     539 |   95800.01 |   94755.34 |   100.61 |   1044.66 |  98.910
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   102650 |   18703 (0.18322) |   83377 |     570 |  175020.02 |  176071.55 |  3315.01 |  -1051.52 | 100.601
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   264853 |   64515 (0.24413) |  199748 |     590 |  372169.12 |  358152.83 |  2322.52 |  14016.28 |  96.234
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   260395 |   95593 (0.36797) |  164192 |     610 |  588670.76 |  580835.81 |  1013.31 |   7834.95 |  98.669
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1155789 |  563195 (0.48801) |  590865 |    1729 |  898605.64 |  880427.12 |  2925.20 |  18178.51 |  97.977
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   642528 |  320418 (0.49966) |  320850 |    1260 |  676866.34 |  660225.30 |  6521.70 |  16641.04 |  97.541
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   364088 |  267120 (0.73509) |   96262 |     706 |  306587.11 |  299468.84 |  6172.08 |   7118.27 |  97.678
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    81303 |   64134 (0.79431) |   16608 |     561 |   63575.23 |   62172.03 |  1187.70 |   1403.20 |  97.793
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    72346 |   61475 (0.85720) |   10241 |     630 |   80898.31 |   80127.68 |   400.73 |    770.62 |  99.047
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   111835 |  101879 (0.91610) |    9330 |     626 |   73483.35 |   72441.45 |     0.81 |   1041.90 |  98.582
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18685 |   17081 (0.97975) |     353 |    1251 |   24570.26 |   24156.48 |   240.41 |    413.77 |  98.316
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3794026 | 1557509           | 2218861 |   17656 |  805069.60 |  791433.01 |   283.53 |  13636.59 |  98.306
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119387 |   54020           |   65074 |     293 | 2697130.00 | 2639547.51 | 24345.21 |  57582.49 |  97.865
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3913413 | 1611529           | 2283935 |   17949 | 3502199.61 | 3430980.52 | 24628.75 |  71219.08 |  97.966
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71219.08803410 BTC (2.034%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3121.57937500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68097.50865910 BTC (1.944%)
Pending Liabilities:           72.59336105 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68024.91529805 BTC (1.942%)
Profit This Month:           1348.54784017 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12355340  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7190303  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5338.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2962.7  (55.5%)

[dooglus]

My script calculated the end-of-month profits as being:

Feb: 66676.36745788
Mar: 67842.92656762

Monthly profit: 1166.55910974 BTC

Total of 55 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-31 08:35pm (up to block 229034)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   115915 |       3 (0.00003) |  114104 |    1808 |    1394.72 |    3841.45 |   140.92 |  -2446.72 | 275.427
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6314 |       0 (0.00000) |    5763 |     551 |     104.95 |       0.11 |    21.67 |    104.83 |   0.109
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8647 |       1 (0.00012) |    8180 |     466 |     133.35 |     160.09 |    14.53 |    -26.73 | 120.052
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    15078 |       5 (0.00034) |   14585 |     488 |     296.92 |     432.33 |    10.11 |   -135.41 | 145.604
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    16157 |       1 (0.00006) |   15701 |     455 |     560.87 |       5.38 |    22.10 |    555.49 |   0.960
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    23248 |      11 (0.00048) |   22822 |     415 |    1363.43 |    1537.60 |     1.45 |   -174.17 | 112.775
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    25981 |      32 (0.00126) |   25457 |     492 |    1913.05 |    1521.15 |    55.90 |    391.90 |  79.514
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20623 |      38 (0.00189) |   20115 |     470 |    2376.21 |    1562.87 |    48.42 |    813.33 |  65.772
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25796 |     113 (0.00445) |   25279 |     404 |    5991.92 |    8653.60 |    13.25 |  -2661.67 | 144.421
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36818 |     295 (0.00817) |   35804 |     719 |    8252.17 |    6897.58 |    10.11 |   1354.59 |  83.585
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   129778 |    1964 (0.01520) |  127255 |     559 |   40810.04 |   36055.71 |     2.19 |   4754.32 |  88.350
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25303 |     578 (0.02317) |   24364 |     361 |    7956.15 |    8555.97 |    15.10 |   -599.81 | 107.539
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    83357 |    2560 (0.03086) |   80395 |     402 |   40756.66 |   36627.95 |     9.38 |   4128.71 |  89.870
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29882 |    1356 (0.04610) |   28058 |     468 |    9788.42 |   10624.03 |    25.32 |   -835.60 | 108.537
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35846 |    2201 (0.06210) |   33243 |     402 |    7716.68 |    7504.02 |    31.39 |    212.66 |  97.244
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49874 |    4539 (0.09189) |   44857 |     478 |   16763.13 |   18388.86 |     7.41 |  -1625.73 | 109.698
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   195199 |   23879 (0.12267) |  170779 |     541 |   95849.40 |   94801.22 |   100.62 |   1048.18 |  98.906
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   103163 |   18769 (0.18296) |   83817 |     577 |  175077.20 |  176095.14 |  3315.03 |  -1017.94 | 100.581
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   266662 |   64984 (0.24424) |  201083 |     595 |  372302.62 |  358310.42 |  2322.54 |  13992.19 |  96.242
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   261277 |   95897 (0.36789) |  164768 |     612 |  588822.15 |  581073.59 |  1013.31 |   7748.56 |  98.684
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1159113 |  564823 (0.48802) |  592552 |    1738 |  900818.35 |  882888.10 |  2925.23 |  17930.24 |  98.010
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   646088 |  322146 (0.49960) |  322664 |    1278 |  677934.99 |  661352.55 |  6521.77 |  16582.43 |  97.554
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   365736 |  268315 (0.73508) |   96702 |     719 |  306892.70 |  299752.22 |  6172.15 |   7140.47 |  97.673
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    81921 |   64634 (0.79447) |   16721 |     566 |   63801.98 |   62383.57 |  1187.72 |   1418.40 |  97.777
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    73024 |   62030 (0.85692) |   10357 |     637 |   81029.56 |   80255.37 |   400.77 |    774.19 |  99.045
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   113300 |  103210 (0.91613) |    9449 |     641 |   73676.17 |   72629.34 |     0.87 |   1046.83 |  98.579
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18880 |   17245 (0.97983) |     355 |    1280 |   24601.63 |   24187.97 |   240.46 |    413.66 |  98.319
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3813396 | 1565496           | 2230071 |   17829 |  807283.15 |  793576.31 |   284.63 |  13706.84 |  98.302
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119584 |   54133           |   65158 |     293 | 2699702.39 | 2642521.99 | 24345.21 |  57180.39 |  97.882
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3932980 | 1619629           | 2295229 |   18122 | 3506985.55 | 3436098.30 | 24629.84 |  70887.24 |  97.979
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70887.24277234 BTC (2.021%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3142.10437500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67745.13839734 BTC (1.932%)
Pending Liabilities:            3.97082145 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67741.16757589 BTC (1.932%)
Profit This Month:           -101.75899173 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12419592  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7226224  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5376.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2977.8  (55.4%)

[BTCdude007]

Looks like there is a profit for March.

But it is unclear. Which is correct?

> Monthly profit: 1166.55910974 BTC
or
> Profit This Month:           -101.75899173 BTC

Why the difference?

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

Looks like there is a profit for March.

But it is unclear. Which is correct?

> Monthly profit: 1166.55910974 BTC
or
> Profit This Month:           -101.75899173 BTC

Why the difference?

-101 is the start of april i guess

I trust dooglus for 1166 Erik's update will come within this week



Mind game : Profit without less than 1 (1920+1620+620) = 4160 +1166 = 5320 * 103$ = 547.000$.

[dooglus]

Looks like there is a profit for March.

But it is unclear. Which is correct?

> Monthly profit: 1166.55910974 BTC
or
> Profit This Month:           -101.75899173 BTC

Why the difference?

Yeah, I should have been clearer.  The +1166 was March's profit and the -101 is April's.

The official number will be different I expect.  I just go by the timestamps on the blocks, whereas Erik probably uses the actual processing time.  But it'll probably be pretty close.

[dooglus]

Total of 99 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-01 12:36pm (up to block 229178)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   116222 |       3 (0.00003) |  114406 |    1813 |    1401.31 |    3841.48 |   140.93 |  -2440.17 | 274.135
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6335 |       0 (0.00000) |    5783 |     552 |     105.34 |       0.11 |    22.23 |    105.22 |   0.110
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8682 |       1 (0.00012) |    8214 |     467 |     134.02 |     160.09 |    14.54 |    -26.07 | 119.454
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    15109 |       5 (0.00034) |   14615 |     489 |     297.23 |     432.34 |    10.11 |   -135.10 | 145.456
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    16289 |       1 (0.00006) |   15831 |     457 |     562.54 |       5.39 |    22.11 |    557.14 |   0.958
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    23264 |      11 (0.00048) |   22838 |     415 |    1363.87 |    1537.61 |     1.45 |   -173.73 | 112.738
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    26017 |      32 (0.00125) |   25492 |     493 |    1915.12 |    1521.16 |    55.90 |    393.95 |  79.429
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20644 |      38 (0.00188) |   20136 |     470 |    2376.45 |    1562.87 |    48.42 |    813.58 |  65.765
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25824 |     113 (0.00445) |   25307 |     404 |    5993.21 |    8653.60 |    13.25 |  -2660.38 | 144.390
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36847 |     295 (0.00817) |   35832 |     720 |    8255.42 |    6897.59 |    10.11 |   1357.82 |  83.552
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   129957 |    1965 (0.01519) |  127431 |     561 |   40898.68 |   36057.43 |     2.19 |   4841.24 |  88.163
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25352 |     579 (0.02317) |   24411 |     362 |    7959.55 |    8556.41 |    15.11 |   -596.86 | 107.499
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    83500 |    2561 (0.03082) |   80536 |     403 |   40887.55 |   36629.56 |     9.39 |   4257.98 |  89.586
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29902 |    1356 (0.04607) |   28077 |     469 |    9795.61 |   10624.07 |    25.33 |   -828.45 | 108.457
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35887 |    2202 (0.06206) |   33282 |     403 |    7717.96 |    7504.98 |    31.39 |    212.98 |  97.240
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49958 |    4544 (0.09184) |   44933 |     481 |   16767.98 |   18389.74 |     7.42 |  -1621.75 | 109.672
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   195573 |   23933 (0.12271) |  171098 |     542 |   96018.30 |   94904.72 |   100.62 |   1113.58 |  98.840
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   103475 |   18818 (0.18289) |   84077 |     580 |  175212.18 |  176154.76 |  3315.04 |   -942.58 | 100.538
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   267512 |   65190 (0.24424) |  201725 |     597 |  372459.85 |  358504.57 |  2322.55 |  13955.28 |  96.253
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   261802 |   96088 (0.36789) |  165100 |     614 |  588965.08 |  581236.99 |  1013.32 |   7728.08 |  98.688
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1161533 |  566074 (0.48808) |  593717 |    1742 |  901776.80 |  883821.12 |  2925.25 |  17955.68 |  98.009
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   647546 |  322861 (0.49958) |  323400 |    1285 |  678557.02 |  661916.41 |  6521.79 |  16640.61 |  97.548
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   366839 |  269114 (0.73506) |   96999 |     726 |  306956.78 |  299810.85 |  6172.17 |   7145.93 |  97.672
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    82285 |   64917 (0.79447) |   16794 |     574 |   63881.90 |   62455.64 |  1187.74 |   1426.25 |  97.767
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    73354 |   62301 (0.85681) |   10412 |     641 |   81156.74 |   80377.74 |   400.78 |    778.99 |  99.040
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   113887 |  103749 (0.91619) |    9491 |     647 |   73841.13 |   72791.99 |     0.90 |   1049.13 |  98.579
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18985 |   17336 (0.97982) |     357 |    1292 |   24662.42 |   24248.32 |   240.47 |    414.10 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3822812 | 1569890           | 2235016 |   17906 |  808377.20 |  794589.14 |   285.41 |  13788.06 |  98.294
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119768 |   54197           |   65278 |     293 | 2701542.96 | 2644008.53 | 24345.21 |  57534.42 |  97.870
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3942580 | 1624087           | 2300294 |   18199 | 3509920.16 | 3438597.68 | 24630.62 |  71322.48 |  97.968
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71322.48764929 BTC (2.032%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3152.12197500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68170.36567429 BTC (1.942%)
Pending Liabilities:            2.74094967 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68167.62472462 BTC (1.942%)
Profit This Month:            324.69815700 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12453450  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7244365  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5393.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2985.3  (55.4%)

[jborkl]

Wow, if that luck keeps up for the rest of the month

[dooglus]

Total of 38 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-02 05:53pm (up to block 229396)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   117065 |       3 (0.00003) |  115233 |    1829 |    1414.17 |    3841.55 |   141.56 |  -2427.37 | 271.646
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6579 |       0 (0.00000) |    6027 |     552 |     108.37 |       0.13 |    22.23 |    108.24 |   0.121
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8737 |       1 (0.00012) |    8267 |     469 |     134.73 |     160.09 |    14.54 |    -25.36 | 118.826
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    15174 |       5 (0.00034) |   14680 |     489 |     298.21 |     432.34 |    10.11 |   -134.12 | 144.976
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    16376 |       1 (0.00006) |   15913 |     462 |     563.82 |       5.39 |    22.13 |    558.43 |   0.957
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    23313 |      11 (0.00048) |   22887 |     415 |    1364.85 |    1537.61 |     1.45 |   -172.75 | 112.657
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    26097 |      32 (0.00125) |   25571 |     494 |    1916.57 |    1521.17 |    55.90 |    395.39 |  79.370
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20702 |      38 (0.00188) |   20194 |     470 |    2378.43 |    1562.88 |    48.42 |    815.54 |  65.711
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25869 |     113 (0.00444) |   25352 |     404 |    5996.31 |    8653.62 |    13.25 |  -2657.31 | 144.316
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36950 |     296 (0.00817) |   35927 |     727 |    8282.14 |    6898.98 |    10.12 |   1383.16 |  83.299
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   130706 |    1969 (0.01513) |  128174 |     563 |   40985.93 |   36073.86 |     2.20 |   4912.07 |  88.015
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25437 |     581 (0.02317) |   24491 |     365 |    7961.09 |    8558.13 |    15.12 |   -597.03 | 107.499
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    83926 |    2567 (0.03073) |   80956 |     403 |   40955.66 |   36632.49 |     9.39 |   4323.17 |  89.444
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30018 |    1365 (0.04620) |   28181 |     472 |    9807.42 |   10627.35 |    25.34 |   -819.92 | 108.360
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36000 |    2208 (0.06203) |   33389 |     403 |    7720.28 |    7507.71 |    31.39 |    212.56 |  97.247
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    50139 |    4557 (0.09178) |   45096 |     486 |   16784.71 |   18393.66 |     7.43 |  -1608.94 | 109.586
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   196153 |   23994 (0.12266) |  171617 |     542 |   96102.39 |   94964.83 |   100.62 |   1137.55 |  98.816
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   104116 |   18929 (0.18283) |   84602 |     585 |  175322.09 |  176228.39 |  3315.05 |   -906.30 | 100.517
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   269255 |   65619 (0.24425) |  203035 |     601 |  372751.10 |  358759.45 |  2322.57 |  13991.64 |  96.246
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   263236 |   96608 (0.36786) |  166012 |     616 |  589591.49 |  581774.34 |  1013.33 |   7817.15 |  98.674
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1165549 |  568024 (0.48808) |  595767 |    1758 |  903073.59 |  885139.12 |  2925.31 |  17934.46 |  98.014
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   650703 |  324450 (0.49961) |  324958 |    1295 |  679246.94 |  662478.67 |  6521.82 |  16768.27 |  97.531
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   369382 |  271007 (0.73515) |   97637 |     738 |  307279.04 |  300173.25 |  6172.22 |   7105.78 |  97.688
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    82848 |   65356 (0.79442) |   16913 |     579 |   64093.30 |   62681.56 |  1187.77 |   1411.74 |  97.797
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    73887 |   62750 (0.85676) |   10491 |     646 |   81270.64 |   80486.72 |   400.81 |    783.91 |  99.035
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   115439 |  105171 (0.91624) |    9615 |     653 |   74090.32 |   73041.66 |     0.93 |   1048.66 |  98.585
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    19172 |   17499 (0.97962) |     364 |    1309 |   24723.96 |   24309.25 |   240.49 |    414.70 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3842897 | 1578886           | 2245979 |   18032 |  810458.84 |  796436.61 |   286.38 |  14022.22 |  98.270
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119931 |   54268           |   65370 |     293 | 2703758.84 | 2646007.70 | 24345.21 |  57751.14 |  97.864
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3962828 | 1633154           | 2311349 |   18325 | 3514217.68 | 3442444.31 | 24631.59 |  71773.36 |  97.958
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71773.36956304 BTC (2.042%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3173.26177500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68600.10778804 BTC (1.952%)
Pending Liabilities:            3.19339789 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68596.91439015 BTC (1.952%)
Profit This Month:            753.98782253 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12530694  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7281271  (58.1%)
Blockchain MB:   5430.2  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3000.7  (55.3%)

[dooglus]

Wow, if that luck keeps up for the rest of the month

It seems to be doing so.

750 BTC profit after 2 days.  That clearly means we'll be up 11,250 BTC by the end of the month. 

[organofcorti]

Wow, if that luck keeps up for the rest of the month

It seems to be doing so.

750 BTC profit after 2 days.  That clearly means we'll be up 11,250 BTC by the end of the month. 

Any chance of a confidence interval for that figure?

[Picklee]

It seems to be doing so.

750 BTC profit after 2 days.  That clearly means we'll be up 11,250 BTC by the end of the month. 

Any chance of a confidence interval for that figure?

lol

Out of curiosity, does anyone know over what period of time the profit is actually 1.9%? Is it 3 months? 9 months? a year? infinity? Obviously we have good months and bad months, but when we are talking about the moving profit average, over what window of time does it actually approach 1.9%?

[dooglus]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know over what period of time the profit is actually 1.9%? Is it 3 months? 9 months? a year? infinity? Obviously we have good months and bad months, but when we are talking about the moving profit average, over what window of time does it actually approach 1.9%?

Over the whole lifetime of the game so far the profit has been around 2.042% before you take transaction fees into account, and 1.952% after deducting transaction fees.

It is mathematically 'supposed' to be 1.9% before subtracting transaction fees, so they're doing better than expected.

I don't remember the details, but the house edge has been adjusted a couple of times.  Not recently, mind you.  I think the most recent adjustment was taking the edge down from 2.0% to 1.9% when a clone site appeared which was offering a lower house edge.  It looked like Erik's way of saying "we can afford to out-compete you so don't even try".  I think before that, the house edge may have been lower than 1.9%, but I really don't remember for sure.

Your question is a little confusing.  The site pays out 1.9% less than true odds.  So in the long run you lose 1.9% of everything you bet.  Every game is effectively random, so you can't say "the profit will be 1.9% over 3 months".  You can't say for certain that the profit will ever go back down to 1.9% from its current level.  All we can say is that the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

[Picklee]

Over the whole lifetime of the game so far the profit has been around 2.042% before you take transaction fees into account, and 1.952% after deducting transaction fees.

It is mathematically 'supposed' to be 1.9% before subtracting transaction fees, so they're doing better than expected.

I don't remember the details, but the house edge has been adjusted a couple of times.  Not recently, mind you.  I think the most recent adjustment was taking the edge down from 2.0% to 1.9% when a clone site appeared which was offering a lower house edge.  It looked like Erik's way of saying "we can afford to out-compete you so don't even try".  I think before that, the house edge may have been lower than 1.9%, but I really don't remember for sure.

Your question is a little confusing.  The site pays out 1.9% less than true odds.  So in the long run you lose 1.9% of everything you bet.  Every game is effectively random, so you can't say "the profit will be 1.9% over 3 months".  You can't say for certain that the profit will ever go back down to 1.9% from its current level.  All we can say is that the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

[dooglus]

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Well alright.  Now I can say "I don't know" instead of "your question sucks"

It's affected a lot by the big bets.  The profit from thousands of small bets can be wiped out by a single lucky big bet (and vice versa).

[nimda]

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Well alright.  Now I can say "I don't know" instead of "your question sucks"

It's affected a lot by the big bets.  The profit from thousands of small bets can be wiped out by a single lucky big bet (and vice versa).

The question should have one more number. It should be phrased "95% chance that the house edge will be within 1.89-1.91%" or similarly. The size of the acceptable error there will greatly influence the result.
And... I don't remember how to do a problem like that It's complicated by the fact that with 1 trial, there is a 0% chance that the house will take within 1.89 to 1.91 percent.

[organofcorti]

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Well alright.  Now I can say "I don't know" instead of "your question sucks"

It's affected a lot by the big bets.  The profit from thousands of small bets can be wiped out by a single lucky big bet (and vice versa).

The question should have one more number. It should be phrased "95% chance that the house edge will be within 1.89-1.91%" or similarly. The size of the acceptable error there will greatly influence the result.
And... I don't remember how to do a problem like that It's complicated by the fact that with 1 trial, there is a 0% chance that the house will take within 1.89 to 1.91 percent.

I think it can be assessed using Markov chains. Meni Rosenfeld's analysis of PPS pool bankruptcy probabilities (AoBPMRS, Appendix c) examines a similar problem and uses a Markov chain model. I haven't studied them, maybe someone else more familiar with Markov chains could do the analysis.

[etotheipi]

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Well alright.  Now I can say "I don't know" instead of "your question sucks"

It's affected a lot by the big bets.  The profit from thousands of small bets can be wiped out by a single lucky big bet (and vice versa).

The question should have one more number. It should be phrased "95% chance that the house edge will be within 1.89-1.91%" or similarly. The size of the acceptable error there will greatly influence the result.
And... I don't remember how to do a problem like that It's complicated by the fact that with 1 trial, there is a 0% chance that the house will take within 1.89 to 1.91 percent.

I think it can be assessed using Markov chains. Meni Rosenfeld's analysis of PPS pool bankruptcy probabilities (AoBPMRS, Appendix c) examines a similar problem and uses a Markov chain model. I haven't studied them, maybe someone else more familiar with Markov chains could do the analysis.

Markov chains are more useful when there's a relationship between the states of the system.  In this case, it would be more like "losing 3 in a row changes your chances of winning the next one".  Since we don't have that, you can use regular IID statistics.   

The way I wrote the script that dooglus is using right now, is taking advantage of the fact that for a sum of random variables, you can just add their expected values, and add their variances.  Square-root the resulting variance ot get the standard-deviation.  The result will be a mean and std-dev, which you can use to compute a 3-sigma bounding box (or 2-sigma, if you want 95% confidence).

For binary systems like this (win or lose), you'd "normally" use different equations, but this construction is accurate as the number of trials gets large.  SatoshiDice qualifies.