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Author Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis  (Read 177024 times)
FTWbitcoinFTW
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March 30, 2013, 12:17:41 AM
 #1081

A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

Hope so !
Like the last day of january (+15k)
Good old time when a 500btc bet was common  Lips sealed

We just need 3338 Btc more to match fiat february sum..



Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
it has lots of buttery taste..
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MeatPopsicle
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March 30, 2013, 05:25:54 AM
 #1082

A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

For those too lazy to dig:

Code:

      First Bet      |      Last Bet       |     bets      |   winnings    |    profit
---------------------+---------------------+---------------+---------------+--------------
 2013-03-28 19:11:46 | 2013-03-29 11:20:48 | 2394.00000000 | 2757.05458660 | 363.05458660  
wtfvanity
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March 30, 2013, 04:03:35 PM
 #1083

A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

For those too lazy to dig:

Code:

      First Bet      |      Last Bet       |     bets      |   winnings    |    profit
---------------------+---------------------+---------------+---------------+--------------
 2013-03-28 19:11:46 | 2013-03-29 11:20:48 | 2394.00000000 | 2757.05458660 | 363.05458660  

Ahh the conspiracy theories now. Was the whale trying to make a profit for SD for the end of the month to bring shares up? Was the whale trying to score a couple of big wins to bring SD shares to their knees?

Got to love the whales. Almost as much as mystery miners or the manipulator!

          WTF!     Don't Click Here              
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dooglus
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March 30, 2013, 07:24:44 PM
 #1084

Quote
Total of 92 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-30 12:23pm (up to block 228800)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   114831 |       3 (0.00003) |  113039 |    1789 |    1378.20 |    3841.37 |   140.32 |  -2463.16 | 278.723
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6274 |       0 (0.00000) |    5727 |     547 |     104.35 |       0.11 |    21.66 |    104.24 |   0.107
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8588 |       1 (0.00012) |    8127 |     460 |     132.47 |     160.08 |    14.53 |    -27.61 | 120.846
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14947 |       5 (0.00035) |   14456 |     486 |     295.37 |     432.33 |    10.10 |   -136.96 | 146.369
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    16107 |       1 (0.00006) |   15654 |     452 |     559.48 |       5.37 |    22.09 |    554.10 |   0.961
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    23182 |      11 (0.00048) |   22757 |     414 |    1360.62 |    1537.59 |     1.44 |   -176.96 | 113.006
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    25888 |      32 (0.00126) |   25365 |     491 |    1906.92 |    1521.12 |    55.90 |    385.79 |  79.768
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20515 |      38 (0.00190) |   20007 |     470 |    2369.77 |    1562.84 |    48.42 |    806.92 |  65.949
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25742 |     112 (0.00442) |   25230 |     400 |    5990.76 |    8651.09 |    13.24 |  -2660.33 | 144.407
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36587 |     294 (0.00820) |   35579 |     714 |    8206.72 |    6797.11 |    10.09 |   1409.60 |  82.824
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   128912 |    1954 (0.01522) |  126403 |     555 |   40746.49 |   35990.15 |     2.18 |   4756.34 |  88.327
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25263 |     578 (0.02321) |   24325 |     360 |    7954.77 |    8555.96 |    15.10 |   -601.19 | 107.558
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    82558 |    2539 (0.03090) |   79618 |     401 |   40710.53 |   36583.77 |     9.38 |   4126.75 |  89.863
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29824 |    1353 (0.04608) |   28008 |     463 |    9785.42 |   10619.59 |    25.30 |   -834.16 | 108.525
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35777 |    2195 (0.06205) |   33181 |     401 |    7693.79 |    7500.46 |    31.38 |    193.33 |  97.487
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49667 |    4524 (0.09196) |   44669 |     474 |   16757.68 |   18387.04 |     7.40 |  -1629.35 | 109.723
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   194279 |   23776 (0.12272) |  169964 |     539 |   95800.01 |   94755.34 |   100.61 |   1044.66 |  98.910
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   102650 |   18703 (0.18322) |   83377 |     570 |  175020.02 |  176071.55 |  3315.01 |  -1051.52 | 100.601
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   264853 |   64515 (0.24413) |  199748 |     590 |  372169.12 |  358152.83 |  2322.52 |  14016.28 |  96.234
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   260395 |   95593 (0.36797) |  164192 |     610 |  588670.76 |  580835.81 |  1013.31 |   7834.95 |  98.669
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1155789 |  563195 (0.48801) |  590865 |    1729 |  898605.64 |  880427.12 |  2925.20 |  18178.51 |  97.977
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   642528 |  320418 (0.49966) |  320850 |    1260 |  676866.34 |  660225.30 |  6521.70 |  16641.04 |  97.541
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   364088 |  267120 (0.73509) |   96262 |     706 |  306587.11 |  299468.84 |  6172.08 |   7118.27 |  97.678
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    81303 |   64134 (0.79431) |   16608 |     561 |   63575.23 |   62172.03 |  1187.70 |   1403.20 |  97.793
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    72346 |   61475 (0.85720) |   10241 |     630 |   80898.31 |   80127.68 |   400.73 |    770.62 |  99.047
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   111835 |  101879 (0.91610) |    9330 |     626 |   73483.35 |   72441.45 |     0.81 |   1041.90 |  98.582
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18685 |   17081 (0.97975) |     353 |    1251 |   24570.26 |   24156.48 |   240.41 |    413.77 |  98.316
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3794026 | 1557509           | 2218861 |   17656 |  805069.60 |  791433.01 |   283.53 |  13636.59 |  98.306
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119387 |   54020           |   65074 |     293 | 2697130.00 | 2639547.51 | 24345.21 |  57582.49 |  97.865
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3913413 | 1611529           | 2283935 |   17949 | 3502199.61 | 3430980.52 | 24628.75 |  71219.08 |  97.966
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71219.08803410 BTC (2.034%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3121.57937500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68097.50865910 BTC (1.944%)
Pending Liabilities:           72.59336105 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68024.91529805 BTC (1.942%)
Profit This Month:           1348.54784017 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12355340  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7190303  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5338.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2962.7  (55.5%)




dooglus
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April 01, 2013, 03:52:22 AM
 #1085

My script calculated the end-of-month profits as being:

Feb: 66676.36745788
Mar: 67842.92656762

Monthly profit: 1166.55910974 BTC

Quote
Total of 55 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-31 08:35pm (up to block 229034)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   115915 |       3 (0.00003) |  114104 |    1808 |    1394.72 |    3841.45 |   140.92 |  -2446.72 | 275.427
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6314 |       0 (0.00000) |    5763 |     551 |     104.95 |       0.11 |    21.67 |    104.83 |   0.109
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8647 |       1 (0.00012) |    8180 |     466 |     133.35 |     160.09 |    14.53 |    -26.73 | 120.052
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    15078 |       5 (0.00034) |   14585 |     488 |     296.92 |     432.33 |    10.11 |   -135.41 | 145.604
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    16157 |       1 (0.00006) |   15701 |     455 |     560.87 |       5.38 |    22.10 |    555.49 |   0.960
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    23248 |      11 (0.00048) |   22822 |     415 |    1363.43 |    1537.60 |     1.45 |   -174.17 | 112.775
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    25981 |      32 (0.00126) |   25457 |     492 |    1913.05 |    1521.15 |    55.90 |    391.90 |  79.514
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20623 |      38 (0.00189) |   20115 |     470 |    2376.21 |    1562.87 |    48.42 |    813.33 |  65.772
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25796 |     113 (0.00445) |   25279 |     404 |    5991.92 |    8653.60 |    13.25 |  -2661.67 | 144.421
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36818 |     295 (0.00817) |   35804 |     719 |    8252.17 |    6897.58 |    10.11 |   1354.59 |  83.585
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   129778 |    1964 (0.01520) |  127255 |     559 |   40810.04 |   36055.71 |     2.19 |   4754.32 |  88.350
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25303 |     578 (0.02317) |   24364 |     361 |    7956.15 |    8555.97 |    15.10 |   -599.81 | 107.539
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    83357 |    2560 (0.03086) |   80395 |     402 |   40756.66 |   36627.95 |     9.38 |   4128.71 |  89.870
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29882 |    1356 (0.04610) |   28058 |     468 |    9788.42 |   10624.03 |    25.32 |   -835.60 | 108.537
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35846 |    2201 (0.06210) |   33243 |     402 |    7716.68 |    7504.02 |    31.39 |    212.66 |  97.244
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49874 |    4539 (0.09189) |   44857 |     478 |   16763.13 |   18388.86 |     7.41 |  -1625.73 | 109.698
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   195199 |   23879 (0.12267) |  170779 |     541 |   95849.40 |   94801.22 |   100.62 |   1048.18 |  98.906
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   103163 |   18769 (0.18296) |   83817 |     577 |  175077.20 |  176095.14 |  3315.03 |  -1017.94 | 100.581
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   266662 |   64984 (0.24424) |  201083 |     595 |  372302.62 |  358310.42 |  2322.54 |  13992.19 |  96.242
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   261277 |   95897 (0.36789) |  164768 |     612 |  588822.15 |  581073.59 |  1013.31 |   7748.56 |  98.684
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1159113 |  564823 (0.48802) |  592552 |    1738 |  900818.35 |  882888.10 |  2925.23 |  17930.24 |  98.010
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   646088 |  322146 (0.49960) |  322664 |    1278 |  677934.99 |  661352.55 |  6521.77 |  16582.43 |  97.554
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   365736 |  268315 (0.73508) |   96702 |     719 |  306892.70 |  299752.22 |  6172.15 |   7140.47 |  97.673
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    81921 |   64634 (0.79447) |   16721 |     566 |   63801.98 |   62383.57 |  1187.72 |   1418.40 |  97.777
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    73024 |   62030 (0.85692) |   10357 |     637 |   81029.56 |   80255.37 |   400.77 |    774.19 |  99.045
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   113300 |  103210 (0.91613) |    9449 |     641 |   73676.17 |   72629.34 |     0.87 |   1046.83 |  98.579
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18880 |   17245 (0.97983) |     355 |    1280 |   24601.63 |   24187.97 |   240.46 |    413.66 |  98.319
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3813396 | 1565496           | 2230071 |   17829 |  807283.15 |  793576.31 |   284.63 |  13706.84 |  98.302
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119584 |   54133           |   65158 |     293 | 2699702.39 | 2642521.99 | 24345.21 |  57180.39 |  97.882
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3932980 | 1619629           | 2295229 |   18122 | 3506985.55 | 3436098.30 | 24629.84 |  70887.24 |  97.979
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70887.24277234 BTC (2.021%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3142.10437500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67745.13839734 BTC (1.932%)
Pending Liabilities:            3.97082145 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67741.16757589 BTC (1.932%)
Profit This Month:           -101.75899173 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12419592  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7226224  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5376.1  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2977.8  (55.4%)




BTCdude007
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April 01, 2013, 05:36:49 PM
 #1086

Looks like there is a profit for March.

But it is unclear. Which is correct?

> Monthly profit: 1166.55910974 BTC
or
> Profit This Month:           -101.75899173 BTC

Why the difference?
FTWbitcoinFTW
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April 01, 2013, 06:05:54 PM
 #1087

Looks like there is a profit for March.

But it is unclear. Which is correct?

> Monthly profit: 1166.55910974 BTC
or
> Profit This Month:           -101.75899173 BTC

Why the difference?


-101 is the start of april i guess

I trust dooglus for 1166 Smiley Erik's update will come within this week



Mind game : Profit without less than 1 (1920+1620+620) = 4160 +1166 = 5320 * 103$ = 547.000$.



Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
it has lots of buttery taste..
dooglus
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April 01, 2013, 06:45:50 PM
 #1088

Looks like there is a profit for March.

But it is unclear. Which is correct?

> Monthly profit: 1166.55910974 BTC
or
> Profit This Month:           -101.75899173 BTC

Why the difference?

Yeah, I should have been clearer.  The +1166 was March's profit and the -101 is April's.

The official number will be different I expect.  I just go by the timestamps on the blocks, whereas Erik probably uses the actual processing time.  But it'll probably be pretty close.

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April 01, 2013, 07:41:08 PM
 #1089

Quote
Total of 99 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-01 12:36pm (up to block 229178)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   116222 |       3 (0.00003) |  114406 |    1813 |    1401.31 |    3841.48 |   140.93 |  -2440.17 | 274.135
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6335 |       0 (0.00000) |    5783 |     552 |     105.34 |       0.11 |    22.23 |    105.22 |   0.110
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8682 |       1 (0.00012) |    8214 |     467 |     134.02 |     160.09 |    14.54 |    -26.07 | 119.454
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    15109 |       5 (0.00034) |   14615 |     489 |     297.23 |     432.34 |    10.11 |   -135.10 | 145.456
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    16289 |       1 (0.00006) |   15831 |     457 |     562.54 |       5.39 |    22.11 |    557.14 |   0.958
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    23264 |      11 (0.00048) |   22838 |     415 |    1363.87 |    1537.61 |     1.45 |   -173.73 | 112.738
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    26017 |      32 (0.00125) |   25492 |     493 |    1915.12 |    1521.16 |    55.90 |    393.95 |  79.429
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20644 |      38 (0.00188) |   20136 |     470 |    2376.45 |    1562.87 |    48.42 |    813.58 |  65.765
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25824 |     113 (0.00445) |   25307 |     404 |    5993.21 |    8653.60 |    13.25 |  -2660.38 | 144.390
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36847 |     295 (0.00817) |   35832 |     720 |    8255.42 |    6897.59 |    10.11 |   1357.82 |  83.552
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   129957 |    1965 (0.01519) |  127431 |     561 |   40898.68 |   36057.43 |     2.19 |   4841.24 |  88.163
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25352 |     579 (0.02317) |   24411 |     362 |    7959.55 |    8556.41 |    15.11 |   -596.86 | 107.499
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    83500 |    2561 (0.03082) |   80536 |     403 |   40887.55 |   36629.56 |     9.39 |   4257.98 |  89.586
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29902 |    1356 (0.04607) |   28077 |     469 |    9795.61 |   10624.07 |    25.33 |   -828.45 | 108.457
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35887 |    2202 (0.06206) |   33282 |     403 |    7717.96 |    7504.98 |    31.39 |    212.98 |  97.240
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49958 |    4544 (0.09184) |   44933 |     481 |   16767.98 |   18389.74 |     7.42 |  -1621.75 | 109.672
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   195573 |   23933 (0.12271) |  171098 |     542 |   96018.30 |   94904.72 |   100.62 |   1113.58 |  98.840
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   103475 |   18818 (0.18289) |   84077 |     580 |  175212.18 |  176154.76 |  3315.04 |   -942.58 | 100.538
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   267512 |   65190 (0.24424) |  201725 |     597 |  372459.85 |  358504.57 |  2322.55 |  13955.28 |  96.253
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   261802 |   96088 (0.36789) |  165100 |     614 |  588965.08 |  581236.99 |  1013.32 |   7728.08 |  98.688
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1161533 |  566074 (0.48808) |  593717 |    1742 |  901776.80 |  883821.12 |  2925.25 |  17955.68 |  98.009
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   647546 |  322861 (0.49958) |  323400 |    1285 |  678557.02 |  661916.41 |  6521.79 |  16640.61 |  97.548
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   366839 |  269114 (0.73506) |   96999 |     726 |  306956.78 |  299810.85 |  6172.17 |   7145.93 |  97.672
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    82285 |   64917 (0.79447) |   16794 |     574 |   63881.90 |   62455.64 |  1187.74 |   1426.25 |  97.767
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    73354 |   62301 (0.85681) |   10412 |     641 |   81156.74 |   80377.74 |   400.78 |    778.99 |  99.040
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   113887 |  103749 (0.91619) |    9491 |     647 |   73841.13 |   72791.99 |     0.90 |   1049.13 |  98.579
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18985 |   17336 (0.97982) |     357 |    1292 |   24662.42 |   24248.32 |   240.47 |    414.10 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3822812 | 1569890           | 2235016 |   17906 |  808377.20 |  794589.14 |   285.41 |  13788.06 |  98.294
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119768 |   54197           |   65278 |     293 | 2701542.96 | 2644008.53 | 24345.21 |  57534.42 |  97.870
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3942580 | 1624087           | 2300294 |   18199 | 3509920.16 | 3438597.68 | 24630.62 |  71322.48 |  97.968
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71322.48764929 BTC (2.032%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3152.12197500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68170.36567429 BTC (1.942%)
Pending Liabilities:            2.74094967 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68167.62472462 BTC (1.942%)
Profit This Month:            324.69815700 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12453450  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7244365  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5393.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2985.3  (55.4%)




jborkl
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April 01, 2013, 08:57:40 PM
 #1090

Wow, if that luck keeps up for the rest of the month

dooglus
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April 03, 2013, 12:55:59 AM
 #1091

Quote
Total of 38 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-02 05:53pm (up to block 229396)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   117065 |       3 (0.00003) |  115233 |    1829 |    1414.17 |    3841.55 |   141.56 |  -2427.37 | 271.646
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6579 |       0 (0.00000) |    6027 |     552 |     108.37 |       0.13 |    22.23 |    108.24 |   0.121
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8737 |       1 (0.00012) |    8267 |     469 |     134.73 |     160.09 |    14.54 |    -25.36 | 118.826
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    15174 |       5 (0.00034) |   14680 |     489 |     298.21 |     432.34 |    10.11 |   -134.12 | 144.976
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    16376 |       1 (0.00006) |   15913 |     462 |     563.82 |       5.39 |    22.13 |    558.43 |   0.957
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    23313 |      11 (0.00048) |   22887 |     415 |    1364.85 |    1537.61 |     1.45 |   -172.75 | 112.657
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    26097 |      32 (0.00125) |   25571 |     494 |    1916.57 |    1521.17 |    55.90 |    395.39 |  79.370
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20702 |      38 (0.00188) |   20194 |     470 |    2378.43 |    1562.88 |    48.42 |    815.54 |  65.711
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25869 |     113 (0.00444) |   25352 |     404 |    5996.31 |    8653.62 |    13.25 |  -2657.31 | 144.316
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36950 |     296 (0.00817) |   35927 |     727 |    8282.14 |    6898.98 |    10.12 |   1383.16 |  83.299
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   130706 |    1969 (0.01513) |  128174 |     563 |   40985.93 |   36073.86 |     2.20 |   4912.07 |  88.015
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25437 |     581 (0.02317) |   24491 |     365 |    7961.09 |    8558.13 |    15.12 |   -597.03 | 107.499
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    83926 |    2567 (0.03073) |   80956 |     403 |   40955.66 |   36632.49 |     9.39 |   4323.17 |  89.444
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30018 |    1365 (0.04620) |   28181 |     472 |    9807.42 |   10627.35 |    25.34 |   -819.92 | 108.360
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36000 |    2208 (0.06203) |   33389 |     403 |    7720.28 |    7507.71 |    31.39 |    212.56 |  97.247
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    50139 |    4557 (0.09178) |   45096 |     486 |   16784.71 |   18393.66 |     7.43 |  -1608.94 | 109.586
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   196153 |   23994 (0.12266) |  171617 |     542 |   96102.39 |   94964.83 |   100.62 |   1137.55 |  98.816
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   104116 |   18929 (0.18283) |   84602 |     585 |  175322.09 |  176228.39 |  3315.05 |   -906.30 | 100.517
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   269255 |   65619 (0.24425) |  203035 |     601 |  372751.10 |  358759.45 |  2322.57 |  13991.64 |  96.246
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   263236 |   96608 (0.36786) |  166012 |     616 |  589591.49 |  581774.34 |  1013.33 |   7817.15 |  98.674
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1165549 |  568024 (0.48808) |  595767 |    1758 |  903073.59 |  885139.12 |  2925.31 |  17934.46 |  98.014
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   650703 |  324450 (0.49961) |  324958 |    1295 |  679246.94 |  662478.67 |  6521.82 |  16768.27 |  97.531
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   369382 |  271007 (0.73515) |   97637 |     738 |  307279.04 |  300173.25 |  6172.22 |   7105.78 |  97.688
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    82848 |   65356 (0.79442) |   16913 |     579 |   64093.30 |   62681.56 |  1187.77 |   1411.74 |  97.797
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    73887 |   62750 (0.85676) |   10491 |     646 |   81270.64 |   80486.72 |   400.81 |    783.91 |  99.035
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   115439 |  105171 (0.91624) |    9615 |     653 |   74090.32 |   73041.66 |     0.93 |   1048.66 |  98.585
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    19172 |   17499 (0.97962) |     364 |    1309 |   24723.96 |   24309.25 |   240.49 |    414.70 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3842897 | 1578886           | 2245979 |   18032 |  810458.84 |  796436.61 |   286.38 |  14022.22 |  98.270
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119931 |   54268           |   65370 |     293 | 2703758.84 | 2646007.70 | 24345.21 |  57751.14 |  97.864
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3962828 | 1633154           | 2311349 |   18325 | 3514217.68 | 3442444.31 | 24631.59 |  71773.36 |  97.958
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71773.36956304 BTC (2.042%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3173.26177500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68600.10778804 BTC (1.952%)
Pending Liabilities:            3.19339789 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68596.91439015 BTC (1.952%)
Profit This Month:            753.98782253 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12530694  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7281271  (58.1%)
Blockchain MB:   5430.2  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3000.7  (55.3%)




dooglus
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April 03, 2013, 12:58:17 AM
 #1092

Wow, if that luck keeps up for the rest of the month

It seems to be doing so.

750 BTC profit after 2 days.  That clearly means we'll be up 11,250 BTC by the end of the month.  Smiley

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April 03, 2013, 01:37:23 AM
 #1093

Wow, if that luck keeps up for the rest of the month

It seems to be doing so.

750 BTC profit after 2 days.  That clearly means we'll be up 11,250 BTC by the end of the month.  Smiley

Any chance of a confidence interval for that figure? Wink

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April 03, 2013, 01:43:17 AM
 #1094


It seems to be doing so.

750 BTC profit after 2 days.  That clearly means we'll be up 11,250 BTC by the end of the month.  Smiley
Any chance of a confidence interval for that figure? Wink

lol

Out of curiosity, does anyone know over what period of time the profit is actually 1.9%? Is it 3 months? 9 months? a year? infinity? Obviously we have good months and bad months, but when we are talking about the moving profit average, over what window of time does it actually approach 1.9%?

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April 03, 2013, 01:52:59 AM
 #1095

Out of curiosity, does anyone know over what period of time the profit is actually 1.9%? Is it 3 months? 9 months? a year? infinity? Obviously we have good months and bad months, but when we are talking about the moving profit average, over what window of time does it actually approach 1.9%?

Over the whole lifetime of the game so far the profit has been around 2.042% before you take transaction fees into account, and 1.952% after deducting transaction fees.

It is mathematically 'supposed' to be 1.9% before subtracting transaction fees, so they're doing better than expected.

I don't remember the details, but the house edge has been adjusted a couple of times.  Not recently, mind you.  I think the most recent adjustment was taking the edge down from 2.0% to 1.9% when a clone site appeared which was offering a lower house edge.  It looked like Erik's way of saying "we can afford to out-compete you so don't even try".  I think before that, the house edge may have been lower than 1.9%, but I really don't remember for sure.

Your question is a little confusing.  The site pays out 1.9% less than true odds.  So in the long run you lose 1.9% of everything you bet.  Every game is effectively random, so you can't say "the profit will be 1.9% over 3 months".  You can't say for certain that the profit will ever go back down to 1.9% from its current level.  All we can say is that the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

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April 03, 2013, 01:58:34 AM
 #1096

Over the whole lifetime of the game so far the profit has been around 2.042% before you take transaction fees into account, and 1.952% after deducting transaction fees.

It is mathematically 'supposed' to be 1.9% before subtracting transaction fees, so they're doing better than expected.

I don't remember the details, but the house edge has been adjusted a couple of times.  Not recently, mind you.  I think the most recent adjustment was taking the edge down from 2.0% to 1.9% when a clone site appeared which was offering a lower house edge.  It looked like Erik's way of saying "we can afford to out-compete you so don't even try".  I think before that, the house edge may have been lower than 1.9%, but I really don't remember for sure.

Your question is a little confusing.  The site pays out 1.9% less than true odds.  So in the long run you lose 1.9% of everything you bet.  Every game is effectively random, so you can't say "the profit will be 1.9% over 3 months".  You can't say for certain that the profit will ever go back down to 1.9% from its current level.  All we can say is that the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

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April 03, 2013, 03:35:52 AM
 #1097

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Well alright.  Now I can say "I don't know" instead of "your question sucks" Smiley

It's affected a lot by the big bets.  The profit from thousands of small bets can be wiped out by a single lucky big bet (and vice versa).

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April 03, 2013, 04:16:24 AM
 #1098

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Well alright.  Now I can say "I don't know" instead of "your question sucks" Smiley

It's affected a lot by the big bets.  The profit from thousands of small bets can be wiped out by a single lucky big bet (and vice versa).
The question should have one more number. It should be phrased "95% chance that the house edge will be within 1.89-1.91%" or similarly. The size of the acceptable error there will greatly influence the result.
And... I don't remember how to do a problem like that Cry It's complicated by the fact that with 1 trial, there is a 0% chance that the house will take within 1.89 to 1.91 percent.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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April 03, 2013, 05:33:17 AM
 #1099

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Well alright.  Now I can say "I don't know" instead of "your question sucks" Smiley

It's affected a lot by the big bets.  The profit from thousands of small bets can be wiped out by a single lucky big bet (and vice versa).
The question should have one more number. It should be phrased "95% chance that the house edge will be within 1.89-1.91%" or similarly. The size of the acceptable error there will greatly influence the result.
And... I don't remember how to do a problem like that Cry It's complicated by the fact that with 1 trial, there is a 0% chance that the house will take within 1.89 to 1.91 percent.


I think it can be assessed using Markov chains. Meni Rosenfeld's analysis of PPS pool bankruptcy probabilities (AoBPMRS, Appendix c) examines a similar problem and uses a Markov chain model. I haven't studied them, maybe someone else more familiar with Markov chains could do the analysis.

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April 03, 2013, 04:15:51 PM
 #1100

Perhaps I should have asked instead, how many trials would it take to theoretically reach 1.9% with a 95% confidence interval?

Well alright.  Now I can say "I don't know" instead of "your question sucks" Smiley

It's affected a lot by the big bets.  The profit from thousands of small bets can be wiped out by a single lucky big bet (and vice versa).
The question should have one more number. It should be phrased "95% chance that the house edge will be within 1.89-1.91%" or similarly. The size of the acceptable error there will greatly influence the result.
And... I don't remember how to do a problem like that Cry It's complicated by the fact that with 1 trial, there is a 0% chance that the house will take within 1.89 to 1.91 percent.


I think it can be assessed using Markov chains. Meni Rosenfeld's analysis of PPS pool bankruptcy probabilities (AoBPMRS, Appendix c) examines a similar problem and uses a Markov chain model. I haven't studied them, maybe someone else more familiar with Markov chains could do the analysis.

Markov chains are more useful when there's a relationship between the states of the system.  In this case, it would be more like "losing 3 in a row changes your chances of winning the next one".  Since we don't have that, you can use regular IID statistics.   

The way I wrote the script that dooglus is using right now, is taking advantage of the fact that for a sum of random variables, you can just add their expected values, and add their variances.  Square-root the resulting variance ot get the standard-deviation.  The result will be a mean and std-dev, which you can use to compute a 3-sigma bounding box (or 2-sigma, if you want 95% confidence).

For binary systems like this (win or lose), you'd "normally" use different equations, but this construction is accurate as the number of trials gets large.  SatoshiDice qualifies.

Founder and CEO of Armory Technologies, Inc.
Armory Bitcoin Wallet: Bringing cold storage to the average user!
Only use Armory software signed by the Armory Offline Signing Key (0x98832223)

Please donate to the Armory project by clicking here!    (or donate directly via 1QBDLYTDFHHZAABYSKGKPWKLSXZWCCJQBX -- yes, it's a real address!)
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