[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx

[EskimoBob]

I am wondering, what stage you guys are in collectively - looking at the Kübler-Ross model.
I think you guys are past the Anger stage (remember the whale song, uptick in price, followed by share dumping from the owner?).
Can this be some type of bargain phase, with a twits of "The idea that saves this train wreck... pleas!"?

OMG! I know! All you have to do is figure out, how to make this game exiting... easy

[Zebulon Pike]

I am wondering, what stage you guys are in collectively - looking at the Kübler-Ross model.
I think you guys are past the Anger stage (remember the whale song, uptick in price, followed by share dumping from the owner?).
Can this be some type of bargain phase, with a twits of "The idea that saves this train wreck... pleas!"?

OMG! I know! All you have to do is figure out, how to make this game exiting... easy

I am somewhere between depression and acceptance.  It makes me sad, but I am resigned to just watching my share value drop to zero.  I have thought about selling them a lot over the last few months, but something keeps me holding onto them, in that I want to believe it will turn around, especially after seeing EV at Bitcoin 2013 last weekend.

Sort of like Bitcoin after the 2011 spike & crash, I am hoping that a year or two from now, everyone who sold out at this point will realize how undervalued these shares were.

[Abu22]

Defeatism isn't the answer though. There is absolutely no reason we should be seeing such a dramatic drop in price apart of course from the lack of proper management. SDice has absolutely Hugeee potential  and it's being wasted by those unwilling to innovate upon it...For what reasons? I don't know if it's sheer loss of interest in the project, ulterior motives, incompetence...But honestly a 15 year old doing a business class at school could do a better job in many areas of this as I see it.

Looking forward to the end of the month to be disappointed by the new feature that's probably along the lines of a button to change to background colour to a lighter green. With eternal plans to get 'new games', 'accounts' and other necessary features. This is what other sites are releasing their sites with... SD needs a few years to even consider it. Fuckin' appauling.

[RationalSpeculator]

I am wondering, what stage you guys are in collectively - looking at the Kübler-Ross model.
I think you guys are past the Anger stage (remember the whale song, uptick in price, followed by share dumping from the owner?).
Can this be some type of bargain phase, with a twits of "The idea that saves this train wreck... pleas!"?

OMG! I know! All you have to do is figure out, how to make this game exiting... easy

I am somewhere between depression and acceptance.  It makes me sad, but I am resigned to just watching my share value drop to zero.  I have thought about selling them a lot over the last few months, but something keeps me holding onto them, in that I want to believe it will turn around, especially after seeing EV at Bitcoin 2013 last weekend.

Sort of like Bitcoin after the 2011 spike & crash, I am hoping that a year or two from now, everyone who sold out at this point will realize how undervalued these shares were.

My sympathies. Indeed compared to investing in bitcoins, sdice has been a disaster the past months. Basically totally collapsing from around 0.0070 to the current 0.0020, losing 70% of it's btc value. It's rightful to feel bad about that.

I agree with you that they are undervalued. It's very simple, it returns an average 10% dividend, but $ earnings and $ value have been tenfolding in only 1 year. This means this extremely fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 10. That is ridiculous. Sure there is a lot of legal uncertainty but still. Normally such fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 50 (dividend 2%).

If you hold it another year it will likely at least fivefold in $ earnings and $ value. Will it go up in bitcoin value? That all depends on bitcoin's performance but in my estimation chances are high that in a year's time bitcoin is still valued around $150, and that would give sdice a valuation of around 0.0100 instead of the current 0.0020.

After that however expect bitcoin to go into another bubble again, 100 folding in 1 ride and after the correction still having 30 folded. No chance for sdice to catch up as sdice will continue to shrink in size compared to the bitcoin economy. So I think selling out in 1 year and converting indefinitely into btc makes good sense. But indeed not now.

With some luck sdice is able to get a gambling license and then the current p/e ratio of 10 (dividend 10%) might very well change into a p/e of 20 (dividend of 5%), which is still cheap for such a fast growing company. This means the share price can double on top of the increased earnings. So instead of fivefolding in btc terms, it might 10 fold in 1 years time, bringing it to 0.0200 instead of the current 0.0020.

Basically sdice is valued at $40 million today. This company can easily grow to $400 million, and if it just continues to grow, even at decelerating rate, it will hit $4 billion too. In 10 years time, it might be worth $40 billion, and in 20 years time this company makes a chance to become the biggest company in the world, $400 billion (2013 Dollars). Nothing like being the leader in online gambling worldwide. It has not been seen before. That being said, the risk is much higher than simply holding btc, and btc has even higher potential valuations. So it's still a short term play I think, only to be prefered over bitcoin when bitcoin has just gone up a lot and is due for a long correction.

This is all based on the scenario that regulators will over the next year continue to clamp down on bitcoin, but will not outlaw it. And sdice will continue to be left alone by regulators. I think chances are high for this over the next year, since sdice just banned american residents and since there is no sign that bitcoin will be outlawed. If regulators do clamp down on sdice, all bets are off and even if sdice survives the value will be depressed. If that happens you will have regretted not selling sdice today for bitcoins. If bitcoins are outlawed than sdice is indirectly outlawed too and both will be depressed in value. So I think diversification into other assets remains important.

[Abu22]

I think your valuation of SD over the next 1,2,...20 years is a pointless. I doesn't take into account the fact of SD's competition. It's simply being out out competed. There are more and more sites popping up with better features, lower house odds and more invested developers. (They're probably not btc millionaires, so they're actually interested in turning their site into something profitable)

SD is having it's cake cut slice by slice while it waits to be out performed by all these alternative sites. It will only survive a year if it acts now whilst it still is largely in the bitcoin community public eye. Otherwise this user base will slowly dwindle and diversify into all the other sites leaving SD a husk of a once potential filled 'business'.

[xaviarlol]

I am wondering, what stage you guys are in collectively - looking at the Kübler-Ross model.
I think you guys are past the Anger stage (remember the whale song, uptick in price, followed by share dumping from the owner?).
Can this be some type of bargain phase, with a twits of "The idea that saves this train wreck... pleas!"?

OMG! I know! All you have to do is figure out, how to make this game exiting... easy

I am somewhere between depression and acceptance.  It makes me sad, but I am resigned to just watching my share value drop to zero.  I have thought about selling them a lot over the last few months, but something keeps me holding onto them, in that I want to believe it will turn around, especially after seeing EV at Bitcoin 2013 last weekend.

Sort of like Bitcoin after the 2011 spike & crash, I am hoping that a year or two from now, everyone who sold out at this point will realize how undervalued these shares were.

My sympathies. Indeed compared to investing in bitcoins, sdice has been a disaster the past months. Basically totally collapsing from around 0.0070 to the current 0.0020, losing 70% of it's btc value. It's rightful to feel bad about that.

I agree with you that they are undervalued. It's very simple, it returns an average 10% dividend, but $ earnings and $ value have been tenfolding in only 1 year. This means this extremely fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 10. That is ridiculous. Sure there is a lot of legal uncertainty but still. Normally such fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 50 (dividend 2%).

If you hold it another year it will likely at least fivefold in $ earnings and $ value. Will it go up in bitcoin value? That all depends on bitcoin's performance but in my estimation chances are high that in a year's time bitcoin is still valued around $150, and that would give sdice a valuation of around 0.0100 instead of the current 0.0020.

After that however expect bitcoin to go into another bubble again, 100 folding in 1 ride and after the correction still having 30 folded. No chance for sdice to catch up as sdice will continue to shrink in size compared to the bitcoin economy. So I think selling out in 1 year and converting indefinitely into btc makes good sense. But indeed not now.

With some luck sdice is able to get a gambling license and then the current p/e ratio of 10 (dividend 10%) might very well change into a p/e of 20 (dividend of 5%), which is still cheap for such a fast growing company. This means the share price can double on top of the increased earnings. So instead of fivefolding in btc terms, it might 10 fold in 1 years time, bringing it to 0.0200 instead of the current 0.0020.

Basically sdice is valued at $40 million today. This company can easily grow to $400 million, and if it just continues to grow, even at decelerating rate, it will hit $4 billion too. In 10 years time, it might be worth $40 billion, and in 20 years time this company makes a chance to become the biggest company in the world, $400 billion (2013 Dollars). Nothing like being the leader in online gambling worldwide. It has not been seen before. That being said, the risk is much higher than simply holding btc, and btc has even higher potential valuations. So it's still a short term play I think, only to be prefered over bitcoin when bitcoin has just gone up a lot and is due for a long correction.

This is all based on the scenario that regulators will over the next year continue to clamp down on bitcoin, but will not outlaw it. And sdice will continue to be left alone by regulators. I think chances are high for this over the next year, since sdice just banned american residents and since there is no sign that bitcoin will be outlawed. If regulators do clamp down on sdice, all bets are off and even if sdice survives the value will be depressed. If that happens you will have regretted not selling sdice today for bitcoins. If bitcoins are outlawed than sdice is indirectly outlawed too and both will be depressed in value. So I think diversification into other assets remains important.

There is no reason or evidence right now that S.DICE profits will rise consistently and permanently. If Bitcoin value continues to rise, they will see negative turnover growth.

S.DICE is only useful right now as a hedge against a falling bitcoin value. It's latest dividend yield is low (10-15%) and worst of all, unstable. The March dividend was less than 5%, for example.

Saying they are undervalued is quite silly and invalid, since they absolutely are not undervalued compared to other securities. You can't say "X stock is undervalued because in the future it might be more valuable". Valuation is what the stock is worth right now, and measured mostly in its recent earnings and tangible assets.

[RationalSpeculator]

There is no reason or evidence right now that S.DICE profits will rise consistently and permanently.

Past performance is no guarantee the best indicator of future performance.

If Bitcoin value continues to rise, they will see negative turnover growth. S.DICE is only useful right now as a hedge against a falling bitcoin value.

Did I state anything different?

It's latest dividend yield is low (10-15%) and worst of all, unstable. The March dividend was less than 5%, for example.

We all know that dividends of sdice are very volatile. Is likely already priced in.

The latest actual dividend yield of April was 15% according to my calculations, which is not low, but average for sdice.

The more important 'expected' dividend yield was however only 6% for April, which indeed was the lowest it has ever been, indicating an overvaluation. However, due to increased earnings and the recent correction, current 'expected' dividend is again around 12% for May, which is still a little lower than the average 16%, but acceptable in my opinion.

Also note that the past big increases in earnings and value of the stock, were not related to the expected dividend of the past month, but were related to the coming or disappearing of whales. Since a whale came back this month, chances are high that the coming month will see a sharp increase in expected earnings and valuation.

Saying they are undervalued is quite silly and invalid, since they absolutely are not undervalued compared to other securities. You can't say "X stock is undervalued because in the future it might be more valuable". Valuation is what the stock is worth right now, and measured mostly in its recent earnings and tangible assets.

Saying my argument is silly is not an argument.

My points about potential future valuation was pure speculation, important to asses the potential reward of the stock, but indeed not arguments why it is undervalued today. I gave arguments why the stock is undervalued compared to other growth stocks. Please reread and debunk those arguments, if you can?

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Who are we paying as the head server admin or blah? The site has being not processing bets for 9 hours. It's starting to look a bit incompetent along with letting the domain expire.

[romerun]

Wondering if it's a good idea or even possible if satoshidice uses Bitmessage as a mean to communicate with users, like "our service is down, do not send bet until further notice", or broadcasting the lose bet dust, instead of via blockchain.

[dexX7]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1fa5lv/i_think_somebody_may_have_found_a_satoshi_exploit/

[Peter Lambert]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1fa5lv/i_think_somebody_may_have_found_a_satoshi_exploit/

Sounds like somebody was reading something backwards and thought the address was getting money from satoshidice, when in fact they were sending to satoshidice and losing. FUD fail.

[RationalSpeculator]

Website today is showing in US without warning!

[Abu22]

Website today is showing in US without warning!

Yea, that's the huge news that was gonna be released this month. US players can play now...Jokes aside, I think SDice does pretty much everything without warning..Intentional or not.

[Abu22]

Ok, fantastic. Negative profit this month! Fuck yes.

So before you make this more than 100% worthless.. What's the big announcement? The one that was meant to be disclosed at the end of the month...Not the start of this one.

And could you be honest, is this company even being taken seriously now? Or has it become some second thought hobby of yours Erik?

[pikeadz]

I remember the point when SD started going downhill.  It was in early February right when voorhees issued all those shares which halved the value of everyone's stock.  Remember when he said the price would recover to the true value (which was about .0076/share at the time) within 2 days?  Yeah, still waiting for that lol... I am so glad I sold this trash before it tanked.  The asset, the site, and the management.  What a joke.

[ar9]

I am done with S.DICE.

Gave it a good run, held on until I simply saw no recovery in sight.

Erik, you have failed all of us share holders.

[kingcrimson]

Don't think he really cares, he made a hell of a return selling these scam shares. I've got to praise people earlier in this topic who called it from the beginning.

[RationalSpeculator]

I am done with S.DICE.

Gave it a good run, held on until I simply saw no recovery in sight.

Erik, you have failed all of us share holders.

 

[RationalSpeculator]

Don't think he really cares, he made a hell of a return selling these scam shares. I've got to praise people earlier in this topic who called it from the beginning.

why scam?

[Abu22]

Don't think he really cares, he made a hell of a return selling these scam shares. I've got to praise people earlier in this topic who called it from the beginning.

why scam?

Step 1: Fill public with the idea this great new thing and promises of making it  work.
Step 2: Sell shares..If no shares..create more.
Step 3: (optional) - Add more expenses at random &/or increase employee salary (while paying it with arbitrary rules and lacking any consistency)
Step 4: Repeat from step 1 until the bullshit stops being listened to.

Then..claiming to explain everything...later.. again and again.

I'd say it fits the scam narrative pretty well.