[CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx

[scalar33]

SD has lost some people's business or chunks of it for sure.  Some of the alternatives have several advantages, and are certainly not designed worse than SD.  SD has a lot of momentum and is still running on the fact that it's 'The SD'.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

SD has lost some people's business or chunks of it for sure.  Some of the alternatives have several advantages, and are certainly not designed worse than SD.  SD has a lot of momentum and is still running on the fact that it's 'The SD'.

It's pretty obvious that SD needs a instant account based system (as another option) pretty soon.

There's always going to be the people sending coins to SD because they have it in the addressbook, but SD to the average user has being stagnant for months while competitors have advantages like instant results (one of the prime attractions of SD, before people learned to double spend) with the same provably fairness. It's only a matter of time before those services are as regarded as reputable as satoshidice, and blocking US players certainly does not help with growth.

[SatoshiDICE_PR]

Okay, let me try again:

Yes it's true, bitcoins will become a large transaction system (or small transactions if you are willing to pay for the anonominity (wtf is the correct spelling?)).

No it's not true, bitcoins will be able to handle the current amount banking transactions if you include all the support systems built on top of them, the blockchain just is not scaleable to hold the entire system itself.

What this means for SatoshiDice is that they will have to alter their system over time. But that is why they pay so much for technical support, so that they can keep up and running despite systemic changes.

Yea, SDice really needs to hurry up and add accounts along side no account betting. That way they can have almost instant win/loss notifications, save on costs with bulk payouts, stop bloating the blockchain so much if people adopt this account shiz niz. Pretty much all other gambling websites (using btc) have done this, yet SD refuses to leave the dark ages of the crypo era.

SD needs, if they wanna stay competitive:
- Accounts / along side their current system
- New games, inclusive of their current game.
- Friendlier UI (It's still just a shit tonne of numbers on a screen)
- Chat features, both text voice and video for certain rooms/games
- BTC related advertisement's. (Yes we all hate ad's, but because Bitcoin is in it's infancy right now it's imperative that we give new business the ability to gain public eye to a community of people more susceptible to seeing value in that business. Extra revenue, along side supporting BTC growth is certainly not a bad thing. I would implore all large and successful Bitcoin companies to implement some sort of unobtrusive advertising block on their site, while allowing them to vet who they deem to be appropriate and charge on the same basis too.

If ANY of these suggestions get implemented I guarantee it will have a positive effect on share prices, SD usage and consumer enjoyment.

Take em' they're free.

Thank you for your feedback.
We are currently working on the first three points,
Session-based betting enables the user to bet without having to send the Bitcoin for each bet through the blockchain, this allows faster betting and lower minimum amount.
Friendlier UI and new games are on our list of things to do.
Chat feature will probably be implemented sometime in the future.
Ads however will never be integrated

Best Regards
The spirit of Satoshi

[Abu22]

Okay, let me try again:

Yes it's true, bitcoins will become a large transaction system (or small transactions if you are willing to pay for the anonominity (wtf is the correct spelling?)).

No it's not true, bitcoins will be able to handle the current amount banking transactions if you include all the support systems built on top of them, the blockchain just is not scaleable to hold the entire system itself.

What this means for SatoshiDice is that they will have to alter their system over time. But that is why they pay so much for technical support, so that they can keep up and running despite systemic changes.

Yea, SDice really needs to hurry up and add accounts along side no account betting. That way they can have almost instant win/loss notifications, save on costs with bulk payouts, stop bloating the blockchain so much if people adopt this account shiz niz. Pretty much all other gambling websites (using btc) have done this, yet SD refuses to leave the dark ages of the crypo era.

SD needs, if they wanna stay competitive:
- Accounts / along side their current system
- New games, inclusive of their current game.
- Friendlier UI (It's still just a shit tonne of numbers on a screen)
- Chat features, both text voice and video for certain rooms/games
- BTC related advertisement's. (Yes we all hate ad's, but because Bitcoin is in it's infancy right now it's imperative that we give new business the ability to gain public eye to a community of people more susceptible to seeing value in that business. Extra revenue, along side supporting BTC growth is certainly not a bad thing. I would implore all large and successful Bitcoin companies to implement some sort of unobtrusive advertising block on their site, while allowing them to vet who they deem to be appropriate and charge on the same basis too.

If ANY of these suggestions get implemented I guarantee it will have a positive effect on share prices, SD usage and consumer enjoyment.

Take em' they're free.

Thank you for your feedback.
We are currently working on the first three points,
Session-based betting enables the user to bet without having to send the Bitcoin for each bet through the blockchain, this allows faster betting and lower minimum amount.
Friendlier UI and new games are on our list of things to do.
Chat feature will probably be implemented sometime in the future.
Ads however will never be integrated

Best Regards
The spirit of Satoshi

Care to elaborate on why ads will never be implimented? I think I've made quite a few fair points as to why they would be a wise move at this stage of Bitcoin development in total. It would help the entire cause.

[sunnankar]

- BTC related advertisement's. (Yes we all hate ad's, but because Bitcoin is in it's infancy right now it's imperative that we give new business the ability to gain public eye to a community of people more susceptible to seeing value in that business. Extra revenue, along side supporting BTC growth is certainly not a bad thing. I would implore all large and successful Bitcoin companies to implement some sort of unobtrusive advertising block on their site, while allowing them to vet who they deem to be appropriate and charge on the same basis too.

Ads however will never be integrated

Best Regards
The spirit of Satoshi

Care to elaborate on why ads will never be implimented? I think I've made quite a few fair points as to why they would be a wise move at this stage of Bitcoin development in total. It would help the entire cause.

Yes, could you please clarify about the advertising plan. Based on previous postings, the IPO proceeds have been sequestered for advertising but are awaiting the gambling license before proceeding. The $400k+, based on current exchange rates, of advertising spend will help raise significant awareness for Satoshi Dice and Bitcoin.

For example, from the IPO prospectus it states:

10% of raised capital will be spent on a high-profile print marketing campaign in European gaming publications.

...

Advertising expenses for SatoshiDICE have been in the $100-$300 range per month. However, after
the new site has been released, the advertising budget will be increased to between $500-$1,000
per month (not including the planned European magazine campaign which will be separately funded
with a portion of the IPO proceeds).

...

However, what can be shared is that SatoshiDICE will maintain strong visible presence throughout
the Bitcoin ecosystem. Further as mentioned, 10% of the raised funding from the IPO [note: 34,500 BTC so 10% is 3,450 BTC] will be
dedicated to a high-profile print media advertising campaign in European publications.

[DeaDTerra]

- BTC related advertisement's. (Yes we all hate ad's, but because Bitcoin is in it's infancy right now it's imperative that we give new business the ability to gain public eye to a community of people more susceptible to seeing value in that business. Extra revenue, along side supporting BTC growth is certainly not a bad thing. I would implore all large and successful Bitcoin companies to implement some sort of unobtrusive advertising block on their site, while allowing them to vet who they deem to be appropriate and charge on the same basis too.

Ads however will never be integrated

Best Regards
The spirit of Satoshi

Care to elaborate on why ads will never be implimented? I think I've made quite a few fair points as to why they would be a wise move at this stage of Bitcoin development in total. It would help the entire cause.

Yes, could you please clarify about the advertising plan. Based on previous postings, the IPO proceeds have been sequestered for advertising but are awaiting the gambling license before proceeding. The $400k+, based on current exchange rates, of advertising spend will help raise significant awareness for Satoshi Dice and Bitcoin.

For example, from the IPO prospectus it states:

10% of raised capital will be spent on a high-profile print marketing campaign in European gaming publications.

...

Advertising expenses for SatoshiDICE have been in the $100-$300 range per month. However, after
the new site has been released, the advertising budget will be increased to between $500-$1,000
per month (not including the planned European magazine campaign which will be separately funded
with a portion of the IPO proceeds).

...

However, what can be shared is that SatoshiDICE will maintain strong visible presence throughout
the Bitcoin ecosystem. Further as mentioned, 10% of the raised funding from the IPO [note: 34,500 BTC so 10% is 3,450 BTC] will be
dedicated to a high-profile print media advertising campaign in European publications.

I think they meant that there won´t be ads on the site.
Not that they won´t advertise.
//DeaDTerra

[Abu22]

Yea exactly, I'm referring to a simple ad space on SD so their popularity can both help other Bitcoin business while also giving a stream of revenue. In most cases I dislike advertising, but this in particular is a step forward in legitimising all aspects of of the Bitcoin community.

On the note of SDice advertising themselves...I'd say they should roll out some features worth advertising before we start seeing banners saying;

 "Heyy come to SDice, we have this one game that's really out dated copied everywhere and comparatively takes ages to know if you win or lose...please for the love of god don't find out about any of our competition because the only thing we have on them is larger capital so you can make a larger bet here..It won't be any more fun though"

And honestly with the way things seem to be handled in the past few weeks here that's a not far of accurate advertisement they'd choose.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Yea exactly, I'm referring to a simple ad space on SD so their popularity can both help other Bitcoin business while also giving a stream of revenue. In most cases I dislike advertising, but this in particular is a step forward in legitimising all aspects of of the Bitcoin community.

On the note of SDice advertising themselves...I'd say they should roll out some features worth advertising before we start seeing banners saying;

 "Heyy come to SDice, we have this one game that's really out dated copied everywhere and comparatively takes ages to know if you win or lose...please for the love of god don't find out about any of our competition because the only thing we have on them is larger capital so you can make a larger bet here..It won't be any more fun though"

And honestly with the way things seem to be handled in the past few weeks here that's a not far of accurate advertisement they'd choose.

There's no good bitcoin advertising network, and it's going to be a hassle filtering out competitor's advertisements anyways. Not sure if AdSense and etc will carry gambling sites.

[Abu22]

There's no good bitcoin advertising network, and it's going to be a hassle filtering out competitor's advertisements anyways. Not sure if AdSense and etc will carry gambling sites.

Just like, http://bitcoinity.org/markets

Check the top left.

They did an auction for those advertising rights there. For a Month with the site owner having the final decision of if the winning bidder was advertising an appropriate site my the owners definition. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197985.0 (The winner payed ~12 btc to have their link for a month.)

Don't be so naive, you would get A LOT of interest for a auction on being the sole SD temp sponsor. (even though I would suggest displaying 5-8 links of advertisers)

This would be the easiest imaginable implementation to the website 'OHNOES A FEW HREF TAGS!' While achieving a benefit to all parties involved.
 BTC = more business opportunities to reach higher exposure leads to more successful business
SD = profit and the warm fuzzy feeling of helping the rest of the btc community.
Advertiser = exposure and players = A neutral / slight benefit from using a site that is generating profit external to the gambling ... A simple unobtrusive link isn't going to hinder users and more than the current shit storm of addresses and numerical stats crudely dumped on the screen.

You don't need an advertising network...That's an absurd reason to discount this.

I'm honestly shocked that the idea is meeting any resistance at all... Do you not understand why this is obvious step while we're at this stage of BTC adoption?

But please, I'm keen to hear any valid and thought out criticisms.

[EskimoBob]

I am wondering, what stage you guys are in collectively - looking at the Kübler-Ross model.
I think you guys are past the Anger stage (remember the whale song, uptick in price, followed by share dumping from the owner?).
Can this be some type of bargain phase, with a twits of "The idea that saves this train wreck... pleas!"?

OMG! I know! All you have to do is figure out, how to make this game exiting... easy

[Zebulon Pike]

I am wondering, what stage you guys are in collectively - looking at the Kübler-Ross model.
I think you guys are past the Anger stage (remember the whale song, uptick in price, followed by share dumping from the owner?).
Can this be some type of bargain phase, with a twits of "The idea that saves this train wreck... pleas!"?

OMG! I know! All you have to do is figure out, how to make this game exiting... easy

I am somewhere between depression and acceptance.  It makes me sad, but I am resigned to just watching my share value drop to zero.  I have thought about selling them a lot over the last few months, but something keeps me holding onto them, in that I want to believe it will turn around, especially after seeing EV at Bitcoin 2013 last weekend.

Sort of like Bitcoin after the 2011 spike & crash, I am hoping that a year or two from now, everyone who sold out at this point will realize how undervalued these shares were.

[Abu22]

Defeatism isn't the answer though. There is absolutely no reason we should be seeing such a dramatic drop in price apart of course from the lack of proper management. SDice has absolutely Hugeee potential  and it's being wasted by those unwilling to innovate upon it...For what reasons? I don't know if it's sheer loss of interest in the project, ulterior motives, incompetence...But honestly a 15 year old doing a business class at school could do a better job in many areas of this as I see it.

Looking forward to the end of the month to be disappointed by the new feature that's probably along the lines of a button to change to background colour to a lighter green. With eternal plans to get 'new games', 'accounts' and other necessary features. This is what other sites are releasing their sites with... SD needs a few years to even consider it. Fuckin' appauling.

[RationalSpeculator]

I am wondering, what stage you guys are in collectively - looking at the Kübler-Ross model.
I think you guys are past the Anger stage (remember the whale song, uptick in price, followed by share dumping from the owner?).
Can this be some type of bargain phase, with a twits of "The idea that saves this train wreck... pleas!"?

OMG! I know! All you have to do is figure out, how to make this game exiting... easy

I am somewhere between depression and acceptance.  It makes me sad, but I am resigned to just watching my share value drop to zero.  I have thought about selling them a lot over the last few months, but something keeps me holding onto them, in that I want to believe it will turn around, especially after seeing EV at Bitcoin 2013 last weekend.

Sort of like Bitcoin after the 2011 spike & crash, I am hoping that a year or two from now, everyone who sold out at this point will realize how undervalued these shares were.

My sympathies. Indeed compared to investing in bitcoins, sdice has been a disaster the past months. Basically totally collapsing from around 0.0070 to the current 0.0020, losing 70% of it's btc value. It's rightful to feel bad about that.

I agree with you that they are undervalued. It's very simple, it returns an average 10% dividend, but $ earnings and $ value have been tenfolding in only 1 year. This means this extremely fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 10. That is ridiculous. Sure there is a lot of legal uncertainty but still. Normally such fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 50 (dividend 2%).

If you hold it another year it will likely at least fivefold in $ earnings and $ value. Will it go up in bitcoin value? That all depends on bitcoin's performance but in my estimation chances are high that in a year's time bitcoin is still valued around $150, and that would give sdice a valuation of around 0.0100 instead of the current 0.0020.

After that however expect bitcoin to go into another bubble again, 100 folding in 1 ride and after the correction still having 30 folded. No chance for sdice to catch up as sdice will continue to shrink in size compared to the bitcoin economy. So I think selling out in 1 year and converting indefinitely into btc makes good sense. But indeed not now.

With some luck sdice is able to get a gambling license and then the current p/e ratio of 10 (dividend 10%) might very well change into a p/e of 20 (dividend of 5%), which is still cheap for such a fast growing company. This means the share price can double on top of the increased earnings. So instead of fivefolding in btc terms, it might 10 fold in 1 years time, bringing it to 0.0200 instead of the current 0.0020.

Basically sdice is valued at $40 million today. This company can easily grow to $400 million, and if it just continues to grow, even at decelerating rate, it will hit $4 billion too. In 10 years time, it might be worth $40 billion, and in 20 years time this company makes a chance to become the biggest company in the world, $400 billion (2013 Dollars). Nothing like being the leader in online gambling worldwide. It has not been seen before. That being said, the risk is much higher than simply holding btc, and btc has even higher potential valuations. So it's still a short term play I think, only to be prefered over bitcoin when bitcoin has just gone up a lot and is due for a long correction.

This is all based on the scenario that regulators will over the next year continue to clamp down on bitcoin, but will not outlaw it. And sdice will continue to be left alone by regulators. I think chances are high for this over the next year, since sdice just banned american residents and since there is no sign that bitcoin will be outlawed. If regulators do clamp down on sdice, all bets are off and even if sdice survives the value will be depressed. If that happens you will have regretted not selling sdice today for bitcoins. If bitcoins are outlawed than sdice is indirectly outlawed too and both will be depressed in value. So I think diversification into other assets remains important.

[Abu22]

I think your valuation of SD over the next 1,2,...20 years is a pointless. I doesn't take into account the fact of SD's competition. It's simply being out out competed. There are more and more sites popping up with better features, lower house odds and more invested developers. (They're probably not btc millionaires, so they're actually interested in turning their site into something profitable)

SD is having it's cake cut slice by slice while it waits to be out performed by all these alternative sites. It will only survive a year if it acts now whilst it still is largely in the bitcoin community public eye. Otherwise this user base will slowly dwindle and diversify into all the other sites leaving SD a husk of a once potential filled 'business'.

[xaviarlol]

I am wondering, what stage you guys are in collectively - looking at the Kübler-Ross model.
I think you guys are past the Anger stage (remember the whale song, uptick in price, followed by share dumping from the owner?).
Can this be some type of bargain phase, with a twits of "The idea that saves this train wreck... pleas!"?

OMG! I know! All you have to do is figure out, how to make this game exiting... easy

I am somewhere between depression and acceptance.  It makes me sad, but I am resigned to just watching my share value drop to zero.  I have thought about selling them a lot over the last few months, but something keeps me holding onto them, in that I want to believe it will turn around, especially after seeing EV at Bitcoin 2013 last weekend.

Sort of like Bitcoin after the 2011 spike & crash, I am hoping that a year or two from now, everyone who sold out at this point will realize how undervalued these shares were.

My sympathies. Indeed compared to investing in bitcoins, sdice has been a disaster the past months. Basically totally collapsing from around 0.0070 to the current 0.0020, losing 70% of it's btc value. It's rightful to feel bad about that.

I agree with you that they are undervalued. It's very simple, it returns an average 10% dividend, but $ earnings and $ value have been tenfolding in only 1 year. This means this extremely fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 10. That is ridiculous. Sure there is a lot of legal uncertainty but still. Normally such fast growing company is valued at a P/E of 50 (dividend 2%).

If you hold it another year it will likely at least fivefold in $ earnings and $ value. Will it go up in bitcoin value? That all depends on bitcoin's performance but in my estimation chances are high that in a year's time bitcoin is still valued around $150, and that would give sdice a valuation of around 0.0100 instead of the current 0.0020.

After that however expect bitcoin to go into another bubble again, 100 folding in 1 ride and after the correction still having 30 folded. No chance for sdice to catch up as sdice will continue to shrink in size compared to the bitcoin economy. So I think selling out in 1 year and converting indefinitely into btc makes good sense. But indeed not now.

With some luck sdice is able to get a gambling license and then the current p/e ratio of 10 (dividend 10%) might very well change into a p/e of 20 (dividend of 5%), which is still cheap for such a fast growing company. This means the share price can double on top of the increased earnings. So instead of fivefolding in btc terms, it might 10 fold in 1 years time, bringing it to 0.0200 instead of the current 0.0020.

Basically sdice is valued at $40 million today. This company can easily grow to $400 million, and if it just continues to grow, even at decelerating rate, it will hit $4 billion too. In 10 years time, it might be worth $40 billion, and in 20 years time this company makes a chance to become the biggest company in the world, $400 billion (2013 Dollars). Nothing like being the leader in online gambling worldwide. It has not been seen before. That being said, the risk is much higher than simply holding btc, and btc has even higher potential valuations. So it's still a short term play I think, only to be prefered over bitcoin when bitcoin has just gone up a lot and is due for a long correction.

This is all based on the scenario that regulators will over the next year continue to clamp down on bitcoin, but will not outlaw it. And sdice will continue to be left alone by regulators. I think chances are high for this over the next year, since sdice just banned american residents and since there is no sign that bitcoin will be outlawed. If regulators do clamp down on sdice, all bets are off and even if sdice survives the value will be depressed. If that happens you will have regretted not selling sdice today for bitcoins. If bitcoins are outlawed than sdice is indirectly outlawed too and both will be depressed in value. So I think diversification into other assets remains important.

There is no reason or evidence right now that S.DICE profits will rise consistently and permanently. If Bitcoin value continues to rise, they will see negative turnover growth.

S.DICE is only useful right now as a hedge against a falling bitcoin value. It's latest dividend yield is low (10-15%) and worst of all, unstable. The March dividend was less than 5%, for example.

Saying they are undervalued is quite silly and invalid, since they absolutely are not undervalued compared to other securities. You can't say "X stock is undervalued because in the future it might be more valuable". Valuation is what the stock is worth right now, and measured mostly in its recent earnings and tangible assets.

[RationalSpeculator]

There is no reason or evidence right now that S.DICE profits will rise consistently and permanently.

Past performance is no guarantee the best indicator of future performance.

If Bitcoin value continues to rise, they will see negative turnover growth. S.DICE is only useful right now as a hedge against a falling bitcoin value.

Did I state anything different?

It's latest dividend yield is low (10-15%) and worst of all, unstable. The March dividend was less than 5%, for example.

We all know that dividends of sdice are very volatile. Is likely already priced in.

The latest actual dividend yield of April was 15% according to my calculations, which is not low, but average for sdice.

The more important 'expected' dividend yield was however only 6% for April, which indeed was the lowest it has ever been, indicating an overvaluation. However, due to increased earnings and the recent correction, current 'expected' dividend is again around 12% for May, which is still a little lower than the average 16%, but acceptable in my opinion.

Also note that the past big increases in earnings and value of the stock, were not related to the expected dividend of the past month, but were related to the coming or disappearing of whales. Since a whale came back this month, chances are high that the coming month will see a sharp increase in expected earnings and valuation.

Saying they are undervalued is quite silly and invalid, since they absolutely are not undervalued compared to other securities. You can't say "X stock is undervalued because in the future it might be more valuable". Valuation is what the stock is worth right now, and measured mostly in its recent earnings and tangible assets.

Saying my argument is silly is not an argument.

My points about potential future valuation was pure speculation, important to asses the potential reward of the stock, but indeed not arguments why it is undervalued today. I gave arguments why the stock is undervalued compared to other growth stocks. Please reread and debunk those arguments, if you can?

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Who are we paying as the head server admin or blah? The site has being not processing bets for 9 hours. It's starting to look a bit incompetent along with letting the domain expire.

[romerun]

Wondering if it's a good idea or even possible if satoshidice uses Bitmessage as a mean to communicate with users, like "our service is down, do not send bet until further notice", or broadcasting the lose bet dust, instead of via blockchain.

[dexX7]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1fa5lv/i_think_somebody_may_have_found_a_satoshi_exploit/

[Peter Lambert]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1fa5lv/i_think_somebody_may_have_found_a_satoshi_exploit/

Sounds like somebody was reading something backwards and thought the address was getting money from satoshidice, when in fact they were sending to satoshidice and losing. FUD fail.