Martin Armstrong Discussion

[RAJSALLIN]

Following

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrongs models ...

http://www.silverdoctors.com/martin-armstrong-the-stock-market-will-double-by-2015/

Lying won't help you.

I was reading Armstrong's blog daily as of August 2012 when (it was roughly 12,000) he clearly stated that either it would double before October 2015, or it would phase shift and align with private assets and then delay that double or triple until 2017. Indeed the USA stock market did rise to roughly 18,000 and then it phase shifted and so now we await the double or triple in 2017.

Funny.
He really predicted a lot of funny things:

Prediction April 2013:

Slovenia will collapse from a spending spree, not because it invested in Euro bonds.
(...)
It is true that Slovenia is not Cyprus. It is worse.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/10720


Reality 2014:

He did not state of date for the collapse. Slovenia's economy shrunk considerably in 2013 and since then is having a real estate rebound as foreigners park capital there which is temporarily driving up their GDP and watch what happens after October.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/15/realestate/real-estate-in-slovenia.html?_r=0

When the foreign buyers are gone, then watch for his prediction to come true.

Also you need to differentiate between speculation and actual predictions. He was clearly speculating by the "?" in the title of the blog post. And no where did he show a computer model. This was his personal speculation and expressing his angst about EU dictatorship.

When I relate to Armstrong's predictions, it is those that are made by the computer model and reiterated over numerous blog posts, not some quip in one blog post you dredged up to try to prove you are a jealous nutcase.

Also Armstrong may just have a myopia on Slovenia, which wouldn't the first time that his personal speculations suck. I trust more his computer model and his interpretations of it.

Slovenians are smart people. The could the exact opposite of the British. You don't see much binge drinking in Ljubljana, and when the Brits are big spenders, the Slovenians are big savers. They're the people who make you believe in Europe. If there ware only Germans, Slovenians, Estonians and people like that in the EU, it would rule the world. Unfortunately, people like the Greeks or the French are wrecking it.

[pinky]

I can give you first hand info about Slovenia. Armstrong feeling about Slovenia is quite good. Chart of GDP growth published by Zarathustra is correct, but this growth is fake. People really should also look at the debt and then check for correlation.

We went into our real-estate/financial/pension crisis with low level of debt, today we are just like any other EU country - no more room for mistakes. We haven't really made any political/structural changes in the last 10-15 years. Our pension system is unsustainable and we are already taxed between 50-70%. Level of corruption is high (high % of GDP is government). Next crisis won't be fun.




I believe this chart tells you all about our fake recovery. Our companies are hurting due to high taxes, bloated government sector and regulations.



Check below why this is also fake?


I believe recent drop is only because many highly educated young people moved to Germany, Austria, Canada, USA, Australia, UK. We have around 20k newborns per year.
Mostly young and higly educated people that moved from Slovenia in the last years speak trully horrific story. I know many that moved.
People that left country:
2008    2009  2010  2011  2012  2013
1.930 1.969 2.331 3.888 7.905 5.392

Slovenians are smart people.

We are not smart - maybe compared to the rest of Balkan (if you check IQ by nation), but we are highly socialistic country, people are still taught communist ideas even in universities. I am an anarchist and I have not yet been able to encounter similar people in our country.

You don't see much binge drinking in Ljubljana.

Bullshit - totally opposite is true.

Amongst the students, 23.1 % were hazardous or harmful drinkers.

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/sjph.2014.53.issue-3/sjph-2014-0027/sjph-2014-0027.xml
http://www.sloveniatimes.com/slovenia-ranks-5th-in-alcohol-consumption-in-eu

They're the people who make you believe in Europe.

Hehe, that's is true. Let's not forget that our grandfathers killed around 200k people after the WW2, just because they were political opponents (mainly Serbs & Croats) of communistic ideas. We are for big unsustainable ideas.

[macsga]

Really have to wonder by reading all the above, how on Earth this morpheme of "United States of Europe" will form; and if it does, will it even be sustainable?

[pigzone]

This is really interesting I never knew this

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong on the coming capitulation low in gold (and Bitcoin) circa ≈October:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35128
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35035

Armstrong on the coming Little Ice Age (Al GWhore is looking ancient):

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35071
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35118

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong on the coming capitulation low in gold (and Bitcoin) circa ≈October:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35128
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35035

The collapse in gold and Bitcoin is underway as predicted:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35149

Heck I even predicted the exact recent top $315, back in May. I don't have time to go digging for that post. Perhaps someone else can find it in my archive.

[OROBTC]

...

Truth, TPTB.  I don't have your prediction post number at hand either, but I well remember it.  Yes, you & Armstrong are one of the few non-trolly guys who predicted this.

Those of us, even saying we are stalwart HODLERS of Au, feel like we are taking a beating.  Still, it is diversification I am happy with (thank goodness I started buying decades ago).

What is even more of a pity is that my wife has prohibited me from buying more.  So, I will not.  I am OK with what I have, and it ain't goin' anywhere (except eventually to our kid).

[TPTB_need_war]

What is even more of a pity is that my wife has prohibited me from buying more.

This is one case where I believe your wife is correct. Money is not an island, and so a female's innate intuition about the importance of society is apropos in this case.

Physical gold is useful only in a very narrow band between loss of confidence in government and Mad Max apocalypse (and is not correlated to inflation rate or other gold buy nonsense). If we move towards apocalypse, then gold becomes useless and only food and ammo are barter. Remember I explained before that in a sudden anarchy where the people are not prepared to cope without the State (as happened in W. Europe and also Japan and others in a Dark Age and even the upthread link about recent war in Serbia), it becomes very dangerous to let word spread that you have gold by even trading it. It becomes a very illiquid and difficult to trade asset. And then on top of that, for the first time in the history of the world, governments are planning on eliminating the cash with which you could trade gold for in black markets. Again I reiterate that buying gold (and Bitcoin and the Dow a.k.a. DJIA) on the coming low in October and then selling the gold and DJIA (but not crypto-currency) in 2017 before the USA goes over the cliff, is very likely the correct trade. Only retain perhaps 2 - 5% of (liquid, i.e. not including real estate?) net worth in gold after 2017, and a large portion of the rest (of liquid net worth) hopefully into a widespread anonymous crypto-currency (or if that is not available, then into guns, ammo, and food and prayer).

If anyone is to succeed with bringing to the world an anonymous crypto-currency and internet, then they need to make it popular and something that all sorts of people in society use.

[MF Doom]

What is even more of a pity is that my wife has prohibited me from buying more.

This is one case where I believe your wife is correct. Money is not an island, and so a female's innate intuition about the importance of society is apropos in this case.

Physical gold is useful only in a very narrow band between loss of confidence in government and Mad Max apocalypse (and is not correlated to inflation rate or other gold buy nonsense). If we move towards apocalypse, then gold becomes useless and only food and ammo are barter. Remember I explained before that in a sudden anarchy where the people are not prepared to cope without the State (as happened in W. Europe and also Japan and others in a Dark Age and even the upthread link about recent war in Serbia), it becomes very dangerous to let word spread that you have gold by even trading it. It becomes a very illiquid and difficult to trade asset. And then on top of that, for the first time in the history of the world, governments are planning on eliminating the cash with which you could trade gold for in black markets. Again I reiterate that buying gold (and Bitcoin and the Dow a.k.a. DJIA) on the coming low in October and then selling the gold and DJIA (but not crypto-currency) in 2017 before the USA goes over the cliff, is very likely the correct trade. Only retain perhaps 2 - 5% of (liquid, i.e. not including real estate?) net worth in gold after 2017, and a large portion of the rest (of liquid net worth) hopefully into a widespread anonymous crypto-currency (or if that is not available, then into guns, ammo, and food and prayer).

If anyone is to succeed with bringing to the world an anonymous crypto-currency and internet, then they need to make it popular and something that all sorts of people in society use.

Is this Martin Armstrong? Or are you just a student of his economics teachings?  You seem to be well versed in his economic theories.

You're postings seem to be pretty spot on, and I do agree that from what I've seen and heard govts are planning on moving to a cashless society.  There is a lot of talk too about a "one world currency", any thoughts on that?

[TPTB_need_war]

I'm not Martin Armstrong. I am Shelby Moore.

I am very close to his thought process because of the confluence of several attributes:

• He and I both share the attribute of being programmers, yet also interested and researched in macro economics and artificial intelligence.
• He and I are apparently both slightly polymath.
• He and I are both to a large extent autodidacts and anti-establishment, although I did university studies and he didn't.
• I have the ability to get inside the inductive thought process of those whom I extensively read and study.
• I became acutely interested and widely read on what might lie behind the curtain after 9/11 (Sept 11 2001).
• I am very perceptive with a Briggs-Myers type of ENFP, only slightly biased on the F and P, mildly so on E, and significantly biased on iNtuition. My reading comprehension and retention of information is extremely high (well at least was before the M.S. made it laborious to read).
• I've been thinking deeply about and researching the nature of money and society since at least 2006. This was a tangent for me from my former (and hopefully restored) career as an entrepreneurial software programmer.
• I am formerly a silverbug, bought at lows in 2008, but also lost significant money investing and thus quickly recognized the superiority of Armstrong's modeling system over my prior mistakes.
• He and I are both intensely curious reductionists. He is a Baby Boomer version of my X-Gen self (which to me explains some of our differences, e.g. why he is more establishment than I am where he proposes institutionalized "solutions" to the crisis and doesn't believe there exists a TPTB capable of planning a NWO).

There is a lot of talk too about a "one world currency", any thoughts on that?

I started a thread on that topic.

[TPTB_need_war]

Also, does you modeling predict more social unrest?  It seems like the US has been preparing for this for some time, will there be some sort of false flag/computer bug/ cyber attack that will spur things this fall?

Armstrong does also incorporate a Cycle of War model and yes it is pointing to 2017 as the start of intra- (aka civil unrest) and international war. Also about that time or 2018 is Pandemic Cycle (backtested since beginning of recorded human history as are all of Armstrong's models) is pointing to potentially a pandemic (perhaps war will spread it as was the case for how the Black Death entered Europe).

With that model he was able to pinpoint Ukraine and the start of issues in Ukraine precisely and long before it was on the news or on anyone else's radar.

People are not ready. We are heading into some serious shit and soon.

The cascade model is that the instances of debt crises throughout the EU will accelerate

Okay so what instances are going to happen in 2015 to accelerate things? Greece appears, for now, to be deferred until 2016.

I haven't been studying it that closely (so much crap lurking and my head is in the programming sand), but the instances will accelerate (even in 2015) and come from all over the place, especially in 2016.

Probably some rating agency downgrade, Basel deadline, or something just after the Europeans get back from summer vacations after August. Something big will happen in September. Armstrong will probably home in on it soon. I'll be paying attention and bump the thread once I am aware of it. I remember something Armstrong wrote about a requirement on Greece that comes in August or September...

This exhale on Greece will be very short-lived. The episodes of calm will become shorter and shorter, and volatility will increase and increase. October is the BIG BANG.

P.S. Note I prepended to my prior post.

Edit: I maintain move to dollar cash until after October. Then on those lows move to dollars, US stocks, gold, and crypto. After 2017, my only hope is on crypto. After 2020, try to invest in Asia if you can hide it from your home countries' capital controls and virtual/proxied internment of yourself where ever you may roam.

Edit#2: Armstrong's computer model for the Euro chart points to a big event in September (the Composite bar at top row) with Volatility increasing in August after quieting in July which will be very significant Long-term and Directional change in September:



I believe he called for 0.85 level so perhaps it will break down through to the lowest purple trendline sometime between November and January. Note the bright yellow Trading cycle in February, so that might be the low for the Euro?

[infofront]

Edit: this interview is illuminating:

http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2015/07/yanis-varoufakis-full-transcript-our-battle-save-greece

Half way through reading this, and it is shocking stuff. Validates a lot of what MA has been saying about the political elite. Downright shocking if what Varoufakis says is true, and I don't have any reason to disbelieve the guy.

I'm glad that I found this thread. I'm trying to catch up now.

Anyway, I found this quote from that interview particularly interesting:
"So what we have is a non-existent group that has the greatest power to determine the lives of Europeans. It’s not answerable to anyone, given it doesn’t exist in law; no minutes are kept; and it’s confidential. So no citizen ever knows what is said within. … These are decisions of almost life and death, and no member has to answer to anybody."

[bigtimespaghetti]

Edit: this interview is illuminating:

http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2015/07/yanis-varoufakis-full-transcript-our-battle-save-greece

Half way through reading this, and it is shocking stuff. Validates a lot of what MA has been saying about the political elite. Downright shocking if what Varoufakis says is true, and I don't have any reason to disbelieve the guy.

I'm glad that I found this thread. I'm trying to catch up now.

Anyway, I found this quote from that interview particularly interesting:
"So what we have is a non-existent group that has the greatest power to determine the lives of Europeans. It’s not answerable to anyone, given it doesn’t exist in law; no minutes are kept; and it’s confidential. So no citizen ever knows what is said within. … These are decisions of almost life and death, and no member has to answer to anybody."

This does not shock me as much as how they acted as described in an interview by Yanis Varoufakis. In that they totally ignore any reason outside of their ideology or agendas.

[macsga]

It seems we're heading for a new Gold low; I keep hearing that the next leg will stand little above $700. TPTB_need_war predicts we should be heading for a new BTC dump sooner than later (provided that Armstrong predictions are in line with BTC/Gold entanglement) and after October 1 (2015.75) the new rally for both assets will begin.

I dare to predict that this won't happen. TPTB are heading towards a far more important goal and that's beating the economic meltdown. What I find extremely interesting among Armstrong's latest posts is this article:

Germany Replacing Bank Cards and Eliminating Cash Withdrawals
The game is afoot to eliminate CASH. According to reliable sources, Maestro is seriously under attack. In Germany, Maestro was a multi-national debit card service owned by MasterCard and founded in 1992. Maestro cards obtained from associate banks and can be linked to the cardholder’s current account, or they can be used as prepaid cards. Already we see the cancellation of such cards and the issuing of new debit cards. Why? The new cards cannot be used at an ATM outside of Germany to obtain cash. Any attempt to get cash can only be an advance on a credit card.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35194

I wrote it on another thread as well, I don't think they will make it. Time is running short. Tick Tock...

[TPTB_need_war]

I dare to predict that this won't happen. TPTB are heading towards a far more important goal and that's beating the economic meltdown.

...

I wrote it on another thread as well, I don't think they will make it. Time is running short. Tick Tock...

The highest echelons of TPTB are in control of the timing of the meltdown. Read my post quoted below for my theory on everything.

I think you have entirely the wrong conceptualization of who is control and why and how.

To me it appears 2015.75 will be the beginning of a federalized Europe and eliminating cash, all signs are pointing towards totalitarianism despite the European peoples wishes.

http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Francois-Hollande-Ce-qui-nous-menace-ce-n-est-pas-l-exces-d-Europe-mais-son-insuffisance-742998

Agreed. 2016-2017 is the ratcheting of the cascade for submission of sovereignty for EU nations.

For the USA, that will come later in 2017-2018 with the peak ingress of safe haven seeking capital-chasing-capital ducks stampede in from the periphery and with the allegedly closet-lesbian, ashtray-hurling, führer Hellary Slimeton at the "Little Village" socialism, concentration camps "either you are with us or against us" profiling helm.

Note Asia will also experience a sharp downturn (shrinkage of their export markets, corporations sold huge bond issues denominated in dollars and $usd will appreciate) but unlike the Western nations which are burdened with fiscal debt, Asia's excessive debt load is only at the corporate level (even in China because bankrupt LGOs should be viewed as separate from the central government and can be politically thrown overboard in defaults/writedowns) and can be defaulted. Thus Asia will bottom 2020 and start rising again. While the Western nations are politically embroiled in a fiscal debt morass NWO from which there is no escape other than a Knowledge Age for those who avail of it.

However, Asia will lead the NWO because Asia is top-down run by fascist taipans. Thus the real antithesis to the NWO is the Knowledge Age and not Asia's fiscal and youthful demographics buoyancy that is being harvested by the taipans.

Question about 2015.75. It seems Greece and its creditors have managed to extend-and-pretend into 2016, and that looked to be the most obvious source of sovereign debt contagion. (Of course it is still possible this latest bailout deal will unravel.) Is there another one?

My model of the Euro crisis is that TPTB created the Euro currency union separate from a fiscal union, to enable the model for cascade into a NWO.

They pumped debt into the overvalued nations then as the usury compounded coupled with the appreciation of the Euro that outran their incapacity to produce, the impending defaults forced a choice of increasing the debts or defaulting.

The EU banking model was set up such that the member nations would have no realistic choice but to accept ever increasing debt bailouts (coupled with austerity which accelerates the need for more debt bailouts). TPTB have forced the national fiscal balance sheets to assume this debt and they are metastasizing this debt load throughout the EU into the northern balance banks and also eventually entirely on the northern fiscal balance sheets:

see also this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xu5sTyAXyAo#t=526

It is interesting that Ireland will pay billions for decades in a modern form of
Danegeld and only a select few insiders aware of the flow. Expect the flow to increase
until it can no longer be hid. 

Simultaneously TPTB set up the Basel rounds of increasingly strict banking disclosure and mark-to-market Tier capital classifications which are being staged phased in to ratchet the cascade contagion.

The cascade model is that the instances of debt crises throughout the EU will accelerate until all the nation-states are incapacitated by debt on their fiscal balance sheets, at which point they will have entirely submitted their sovereignty to the EU and ECB.

So the contagion will not be a debt default until it encompasses a default of all the EU nations, and at that point there will be monetary reset with sovereignty submitted to the EU, wherein all the debts will be written down using the ECB.

I predicted this in 2010 with the widely syndicated essay:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html#europe

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

Together these are quite simply the most insightful piece of economic theory I have ever read.

If the author is right and I think he is we are all in the midst of a tragedy of epic proportions.  It is sad unstoppable and will devastate the lives of much of humanity.Once you understand the basics of the modern financial system you are ready to move on to Anonymint's more complex writings and ideas. I would start with

Understand Everything Fundamentally

Understand everything fundamentally covers the broader principle of collectivism and its dangers including the tragic consequences of our current economic trajectory. It also covers the principles of centralization and degrees-of-freedom in the economy. Next up is

The Rise of Knowledge

The rise of knowledge is in my opinion the very best of Anonymint's writing. In it he covers finance and why the role of finance and debt will progressively decline in the future. It is a compelling argument that describes how and why humanity will eventually and inevitability break free of the chains of finance and unrestrained collectivism and enter an age of knowledge.

CoinCube Highlights:
Information is Alive
The Entropic Theory of Life
A Defense of Socialism
The Birth of Contentionism

[TPTB_need_war]

Greece will default.

No it won't!

Your model of the goal and outcome is wrong. Read my my post at the following link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg11937734#msg11937734

The entire EU will brought into debt crisis and only then will there be a monetary reset in a NWO slavery system.

Dumb ass European people can't even see what is so obvious to me since 2010 when I predicted this outcome.

[OROBTC]

Greece will default.

No it won't!

Your model of the goal and outcome is wrong. Read my my post at the following link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg11937734#msg11937734

The entire EU will brought into debt crisis and only then will there be a monetary reset in a NWO slavery system.

Dumb ass European people can't even see what is so obvious to me since 2010 when I predicted this outcome.

Amigo TPTB!

You might be right, but I see a Greek Default along one or more of the lines as in my original post.  Yes, Europe could come to their "rescue" (LOL?), but that would indeed lead to a European outcome probably along the lines of what you propose.  Which is probably close to the end-game anyway.

My hunch is that Greece screws (or tries to screw) Europe/Germany first.  The big question would be: WWFD? *



* What would FRANCE do?

[TPTB_need_war]

Greece will default.

No it won't!

Your model of the goal and outcome is wrong. Read my my post at the following link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg11937734#msg11937734

The entire EU will brought into debt crisis and only then will there be a monetary reset in a NWO slavery system.

Dumb ass European people can't even see what is so obvious to me since 2010 when I predicted this outcome.

Amigo TPTB!

You might be right, but I see a Greek Default along one or more of the lines as in my original post.  Yes, Europe could come to their "rescue" (LOL?), but that would indeed lead to a European outcome probably along the lines of what you propose.  Which is probably close to the end-game anyway.

My hunch is that Greece screws (or tries to) Europe/Germany first.  The big question would be: WWFD? *



* What would FRANCE do?

You are wrong. The entire charade (including Russia and China) is being controlled by the banksters.

It is a scripted circus. There is no sovereignty. They own you.

[OROBTC]

Greece will default.

No it won't!

Your model of the goal and outcome is wrong. Read my my post at the following link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg11937734#msg11937734

The entire EU will brought into debt crisis and only then will there be a monetary reset in a NWO slavery system.

Dumb ass European people can't even see what is so obvious to me since 2010 when I predicted this outcome.

Amigo TPTB!

You might be right, but I see a Greek Default along one or more of the lines as in my original post.  Yes, Europe could come to their "rescue" (LOL?), but that would indeed lead to a European outcome probably along the lines of what you propose.  Which is probably close to the end-game anyway.

My hunch is that Greece screws (or tries to) Europe/Germany first.  The big question would be: WWFD? *



* What would FRANCE do?

You are wrong. The entire charade (including Russia and China) is being controlled by the banksters.

Well, we'll have to see.  Actually, Greece NOT defaulting might be an interesting test of "The Bankster Theory" (where TF is my lawyer, I want to copyright that, stat).

Where does Armstrong stand on banksters (EDIT: "and their power over .gov")?  I'm curious, perhaps by chance I have not seen him address the Bankster/.GOV/Military/Industrial Complex.