Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong is stuck in the fantasy world with you and the others.

I am telling you how it is. You can wait another 5 years to finally realize I am correct.

Don't worry I am usually 5 - 10 years ahead of everyone else.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Where does Armstrong stand on banksters (EDIT: "and their power over .gov")?  I'm curious, perhaps by chance I have not seen him address the Bankster/.GOV/Military/Industrial Complex.

As far as I understand Martin Armstrong does not believe in a cabal controlling certain governmental/financial outcomes. I think he has made a few posts on it in the past on his blog.

[macsga]

My hunch is that Greece screws (or tries to) Europe/Germany first.  The big question would be: WWFD? *
* What would FRANCE do?

You are wrong. The entire charade (including Russia and China) is being controlled by the banksters.
It is a scripted circus. There is no sovereignty. They own you.

I could not agree more. Here's a nice article from zerohedge I've read last night.

Greek Prime Minister Asked Putin For $10 Billion To "Print Drachmas", Greek Media Reports
Back in January, when we reported what the very first official act of open European defiance by the then-brand new Greek prime minister Tsipras was (as a reminder it was his visit of a local rifle range where Nazis executed 200 Greeks on May 1, 1944) we noted that this was the start of a clear Greek pivot away from Europe and toward Russia.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/tsipras-asked-putin-10-billion-print-drachmas-greek-media-reports

This pretty much concludes to what I had in mind all this time (and pretty much agree with you TPTB_need_war). That Putin is in the same game with the rest of the "gang". Well... it's crystal clear:

If confirmed, first and foremost look for a growing schism between Europe and the US (which has clearly been pushing Merkel's buttons via the IMF's ever louder demands for a debt haircut not to mention Jack Lew's rather direct intervention in the Greek bailout negotiations) and an increasing sense of friendly proximity between Berlin (and Brussels) and Moscow.

The biggest loser in this game of realpolitik, once again, are the ordinary Greek people.

[TPTB_need_war]

The charade was by design:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35241

Is Armstrong starting to realize they knew all along?

[macsga]

The charade was by design:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35241

Is Armstrong starting to realize they knew all along?

I posted it yesterday on another forum, but I think it's significant enough for cross-posting :

Let's say that the Greek gov't had (phenomenally) two choices. The first one was the USA/EU camp, the other was BRICS. What do you think happened there? To have a vantage point of the situation, let me present you some more facts in the timeline.

1. The EU summit had happened where mrs Merkel first outspoken the Grexit scenario.
2. Tsipras at the time was with Putin at St. Petersburg talking about how epicly wrong mrs Merkel was.
3. Eurogroup summit - Varoufakis had been abolished.
4. Referendum - 62% vote for no austerity measures.
5. Tsipras agrees to more austerity measures and a 3rd Memorandum for Greece.

What I see by watching all these facts, is that the Greek government never had a choice. Putin has offered something pro bono (the pipe) in exchange for Greece's friendship (and for being the middleman) towards the EU (Greece's veto for Ukraine was a nice gift). Everybody knows that he needs the EU because of their enormous energy needs. He has the gas, he needs clients. Fortifying his stance against the EU by taking Greece with him, would've been utterly wrong and he knew it.

China on the other hand would've been a nice alternative. Now, please take some time to judge what happened in China and PRECISELY WHEN! 25 Greek debts were eliminated in their stock exchange. Turkey (!) offered to buy the Greek debt too. Funnily enough, they can't form a government and today they had a suicide attack within their territory with 25 dead.

Now, here comes the question: Do you believe ALL the above happened by pure luck or coincidence? What are the odds?

[TPTB_need_war]

Now, here comes the question: Do you believe ALL the above happened by pure luck or coincidence? What are the odds?

Please email Armstrong. He has coded his model with a myopia that isn't detecting such statistical anomalies. Thus his myopia.

My fuzzy logic engine had worked out probabilities over years of observation, but your example is much more incisive. Kudos.

[macsga]

Now, here comes the question: Do you believe ALL the above happened by pure luck or coincidence? What are the odds?

Please email Armstrong. He has coded his model with a myopia that isn't detecting such statistical anomalies. Thus his myopia.

My fuzzy logic engine had worked out probabilities over years of observation, but your example is much more incisive. Kudos.

Being pretty busy with the university right now; I really want to talk to the guy but I'm not sure he will reply to me once he figures out that I may have a clue on how he makes his predictions. Besides, I'm not 100% sure he's for real. I know the Physics behind it, I know the Math, but... let's say for the sake of argument, I keep a 1% he's a part of TPTB (or he has inside info).

I promise you though, I'll ring a bell when I have the time to put together a nice letter for him.

[TPTB_need_war]

The discussion in the comments between Rex Kerr and myself, on my philosophical claim that morality = self-interest is interesting (at least to me) and I think very relevant to the totalitarianism we are facing:

https://philosophy.stackexchange.com/questions/1597/is-it-immoral-to-download-music-illegally/25125#25125

It is acutely relevant because most people are so attuned to subjugating their "self-interest" to the greater good of society, that they are destroying society. And those who have the talent to actually work on the actual self-interest and save society (such as Rex Kerr who is a talented programmer apparently) will not use their talent for such because they think it is immoral.

It will only be after the SHTF and society perishes, that they realize their mistake. But that will be much too late for us. I can't find a programmer other than myself who thinks there is any urgency. Looks like I have to code it all by myself. Ridiculous. The world is facing a Dark Age collapse into totalitarianism and we have guys here masturbating with philosophical mumbo-jumbo and then others who get the epistemological arguments wrong and thus misapply their talents.

      (fucking ridiculous, but should be expected and the rewards go to the wise)


Epistemological Rationality

Of course until the tide goes out, we won't know who wasn't wearing underwear. So many Europeans think "wonderful life" is the norm. They have been raised in collectivism and have never experience total collapse.

The reality is the total collapse comes around about every 79 years or so, and Dark Age collapse comes about every 309 years, and we are right on time on both of those cycles which have been backtested to Mesopotamia by a supercomputer which was fed $100 million (in 1980s dollars thus $1 billion now) or vast historical data.

Problem is most people can't be rational even though they think they are because they are incapable of basing on data. Without looking at history, there can be no rationality.

Also it is important to have clear thinking and articulation about epistemological taxonomy:

https://philosophy.stackexchange.com/questions/1247/are-different-values-of-nothing-equivalent/25124#25124

[TPTB_need_war]

The coming Little Ice Age:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35288

[darlidada]

new article about gold http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35296

@TPTB: can you explain what armstrong exactly means by "deflation" ? at college i learned it was the decrease in price. i know some use it as a decrease of the monetary supply too. but armstrong use a totally different definition, and from what i gather from his latest article on gold, it something like a decrease in the monetary supply available to someone

for him, it seems an increase in taxation implies deflation

can you expand on this ?

[TPTB_need_war]

This was just an idea, the battle should be taken to the streets. Micro payments where the everyday food  is purchased, getting crypto unpegged from the internet plus anon tech is the way.

Is it possible?

Decentralized currency is not compatible with no network connection (although it could be a broadcast network RF for 0-confirmation transactions), because for example a physical coin (and its embedded copy of the private key[2]) can be counterfeited.[1]

The best we can do is decentralized the network, which is one of the new features I am working on.

[1]

Physical cash requires an authority to enforce anti-counterfeiting laws, else it requires a precious metals money but we know already that due to Gresham's Law and the fact money must debase else society can not increase production, precious metals have never been and never will be cash. They have never been cash! It was always the State logo on the coin which was the signifier of value and trust. Armstrong explained this in great detail with his ancient coin collections.

[2]

Note as AnonyMint, I presented the idea of embedding the private key inside tungsten inside the coin and enabling it with RF communications (attaining its current from the signal), but even if you could do that difficult tech, you still probably have to trust the authority issuer of the coin (unless it could somehow embedded an eeprom). But even then you still need a connection to the network to verify the public key hasn't been spent.

[TPTB_need_war]

new article about gold http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35296

@TPTB: can you explain what armstrong exactly means by "deflation" ? at college i learned it was the decrease in price. i know some use it as a decrease of the monetary supply too. but armstrong use a totally different definition, and from what i gather from his latest article on gold, it something like a decrease in the monetary supply available to someone

for him, it seems an increase in taxation implies deflation

can you expand on this ?

Wow! Armstrong confirms the low in gold will likely be in the $600 - $700 range! Yikes   Armstrong wrote recently how that near the low, even the former bulls are borrowing gold to sell it short, which is what drives the extreme low.

Ditto BTC, they will sell that fucker short down to double-digits. You've been warned. Once the momentum gets rolling to the short direction, you will see the same overshoot to the downside that we saw on the overshoot to the upside to $1000+ for Bitcoin. It wasn't easy to borrow short on the way up to $1000+ which may have contributed to why the price was able to overshoot so much. Now it is very easy to margin sell short with one-click on bitfinex and if you don't exchange fiat in or out of bitfinex then apparently you don't even need to give them an id (no KYC in that case apparently). I can't offer any assurances on the stability of bitfinex policies nor on whether they can remain solvent in a market that moves too fast.

Want some free money? Short gold and BTC with a several month timeline.

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):



By deflation he means that deflation is not confined to a decline in prices (which itself isn't even confined to only be caused by contraction of M or V in the Quantity Theory of Money), but also can be due to a contraction in economic activity caused by debt overload and its ramifications such as government raises taxes to gain revenue to service the egregious debt load.

Stagflation (de-inflation) can occur when the economic activity is contracting and the production of certain goods is contracting faster. This can happen for example because China was doing all the world's manufacturing and was operating on negative profits due to carry trade in debt, so when the tide goes out we see that cost of manufactured goods was the most naked.

Edit: add the timing on the collapse of the Euro:

This exhale on Greece will be very short-lived. The episodes of calm will become shorter and shorter, and volatility will increase and increase. October is the BIG BANG.

P.S. Note I prepended to my prior post.

Edit: I maintain move to dollar cash until after October. Then on those lows move to dollars, US stocks, gold, and crypto. After 2017, my only hope is on crypto. After 2020, try to invest in Asia if you can hide it from your home countries' capital controls and virtual/proxied internment of yourself where ever you may roam.

Edit#2: Armstrong's computer model for the Euro chart points to a big event in September (the Composite bar at top row) with Volatility increasing in August after quieting in July which will be very significant Long-term and Directional change in September:



I believe he called for 0.85 level so perhaps it will break down through to the lowest purple trendline sometime between November and January. Note the bright yellow Trading cycle in February, so that might be the low for the Euro?

[sidhujag]

new article about gold http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35296

@TPTB: can you explain what armstrong exactly means by "deflation" ? at college i learned it was the decrease in price. i know some use it as a decrease of the monetary supply too. but armstrong use a totally different definition, and from what i gather from his latest article on gold, it something like a decrease in the monetary supply available to someone

for him, it seems an increase in taxation implies deflation

can you expand on this ?

Wow! Armstrong confirms the low in gold will likely be in the $600 - $700 range! Yikes   Armstrong wrote recently how that near the low, even the former bulls are borrowing gold to sell it short, which is what drives the extreme low.

Ditto BTC, they will sell that fucker short down to double-digits. You've been warned. Once the momentum gets rolling to the short direction, you will see the same overshoot to the downside that we saw on the overshoot to the upside to $1000+ for Bitcoin. It wasn't easy to borrow short on the way up to $1000+ which may have contributed to why the price was able to overshoot so much. Now it is very easy to margin sell short with one-click on bitfinex and if you don't exchange fiat in or out of bitfinex then apparently you don't even need to give them an id (no KYC in that case apparently). I can't offer any assurances on the stability of bitfinex policies nor on whether they can remain solvent in a market that moves too fast.

Want some free money? Short gold and BTC with a several month timeline.

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):



By deflation he means that deflation is not confined to a decline in prices (which itself isn't even confined to only be caused by contraction of M or V in the Quantity Theory of Money), but also can be due to a contraction in economic activity caused by debt overload and its ramifications such as government raises taxes to gain revenue to service the egregious debt load.

Stagflation (de-inflation) can occur when the economic activity is contracting and the production of certain goods is contracting faster. This can happen for example because China was doing all the world's manufacturing and was operating on negative profits due to carry trade in debt, so when the tide goes out we see that cost of manufactured goods was the most naked.

People are usually always wrong in short term predictions but i will watch with interest anyway. I had about $600 as my target back when it touched $1900 so you may be right... and BTC already touched target so I don't expect it to go double digits.. although LTC hasnt touched target so it may drag BTC around at these prices for a while.

[TPTB_need_war]

People are usually always wrong in short term predictions but i will watch with interest anyway. I had about $600 as my target back when it touched $1900 so you may be right... and BTC already touched target so I don't expect it to go double digits.. although LTC hasnt touched target so it may drag BTC around at these prices for a while.

You should review my record (courtesy of Armstong and my interpretations). I have called every major move in BTC since $1000.

For example, in May I posted all over the place in these forums predicting a rise in summer to $315 and then a fall back below $150.

Did you not see my silver prediction in 2010?

I am a sort of prophet.

[pinky]

People are usually always wrong in short term predictions but i will watch with interest anyway. I had about $600 as my target back when it touched $1900 so you may be right... and BTC already touched target so I don't expect it to go double digits.. although LTC hasnt touched target so it may drag BTC around at these prices for a while.

You should review my record (courtesy of Armstong and my interpretations). I have called every major move in BTC since $1000.

In May I posted all over the place in these forums predicting a rise in summer to $315 and then a fall back below $150.

Is your predicton invalid if we get above $315?

[sidhujag]

People are usually always wrong in short term predictions but i will watch with interest anyway. I had about $600 as my target back when it touched $1900 so you may be right... and BTC already touched target so I don't expect it to go double digits.. although LTC hasnt touched target so it may drag BTC around at these prices for a while.

You should review my record (courtesy of Armstong and my interpretations). I have called every major move in BTC since $1000.

For example, in May I posted all over the place in these forums predicting a rise in summer to $315 and then a fall back below $150.

Did you not see my silver prediction in 2010?

I am a sort of prophet.

no time to go back and read your posts now.. will watch and remember this one. So if nothing happens (bearish) on week of aug 10 then you are invalidated (or we get above $400).

[TPTB_need_war]

Is your predicton invalid if we get above $315?

I placed my capitulation about $385 - $400. Above $400 I am definitely wrong.

[pinky]

Is your predicton invalid if we get above $315?

I placed my capitulation about $385 - $400. Above $400 I am definitely wrong.

I am just curious, do you think that after final capitulation BTC (& other cryptos) will start a new multi-year bull market?

[TPTB_need_war]

Is your predicton invalid if we get above $315?

I placed my capitulation about $385 - $400. Above $400 I am definitely wrong.

I am just curious, do you think that after final capitulation BTC (& other cryptos) will start a new multi-year bull market?

Absolutely! But it will be very difficult to convince people of that by then, because they will become so pessimistic since they've lost so much money. That is why I am trying convince wise people to stand aside now into dollar cash (not Euros!).

The multi-year bull market is coming because of a stampede into private assets after Europe starts to really implode in 2016. USA will strengthen as a safe haven from Europe until mid or end of 2017, then USA will also implode and private assets will go very high after that.

Don't give up on crypto-currency, just realize this is a market dominated by speculation and thus this speculative downside is coming. Also crypto-currency is still maturing. Bitcoin is not the final answer. Trust me on that insight as I am doing the technology myself.

[macsga]

We have some news regarding Greece. IMF spokesman declared today that without a haircut, IMF won't be a part of the loan that Greece has asked. Maybe we will have some news until mid August about this matter.

TPTB_need_war: I REALLY am curious if you're correct on your BTC dump prediction (in sync with gold low). For the sake of argument, (and because I like to be the Devil's advocate) I'd say it would be difficult to see a new low for BTC. Here's a thought: I believe what we're now experiencing as 'capitulation' is the effect of this "dump" you're probably expecting. BTC is en route to higher levels.

Let's see who wins.