Martin Armstrong Discussion

[tabnloz]

Rickards has always been an oddity to me.  He seems to be an insider who was a part of the whole scam system, then he brags about how he's going to tell you "secret" information from the fed/treasury/what have you.  Any of this so called secret information would either be classified or get you killed by spreading it.  Due to this, I'm kinda leaning towards Rickards being some type of disinfo agent.  

Would never rule it out. He is pretty open with his work with all branches of the USG - financial war games. But he is also critical of the current system & its chaperones, consistently saying their models are wrong. He thinks a mix of complexity theory, Bayesianism and historical models (like Schumpeter's base) are best for our society. He is very critical of the Fed and USG policy - in that, a bit of a America First / Trump economics supporter.

His trilogy CW, DoM & RTR are fantastic and easy to read for the layperson, but he is also an author trying to sell books and reports and newsletters, like everyone else out there, hence the 'secrets'. His secrets aren't classified stuff, but rather how he uses a mix of complexity theory and bayesian stat analysis to predict the Trumps & Brexits of the world, or meeting with bullion dealers or dinners with Fed officials and his interpretation of their comments eg Bernanke's comment that it is all an experiment / incoherant etc etc.

Again though, you're a hammer and everything you see is a Jewish nail.

You guys are not very good economic collapse planners.  For one thing, there is A REASON the majority of large human settlements through history have been bordering the ocean.  If the crops go bad or if there's some type of scarcity issue, people just ratchet up the fishing.  There will be no global "TEOTWAWKI".  There will be many places of low population density that border the ocean where people will fish their way straight through it no matter how bad the economy became.

If the JIT delivery economy collapses, fishing will be the #1 workaround to that.  There is no possible better location than a low population density area bordering the ocean.  As for Anonymint, there's a lot of people stacked like pancakes in the Philippines, so you'd probably need the ability to go far out in the ocean to make due with all that competition.  I mean, if the competition is that high, you would basically be living out at sea.

Good point, and interesting to note the discussion upthread about humanity being wiped out by a sea level rise. Why? Because we are mostly coastal and an 'overnight' 400ft rise would take most of us down. Indian Vedic mythology has ancient cities of great intelligence and prosperity being wiped out thousands of years ago during the great flood. During the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, as the sea drained away, the spires of building were seen kilometres out to sea. Further, between India & Sri Lanka giant megaliths have been discovered under water indicating a thriving society once lived there on the landbridge.

But also I want to say that TEOTWAWKI is really about 'civilized' society of big screen TV's, Mc Mansions, designer goods and toys. For those who live the village lifestyle; isolated, fishing, simple things, things may not change so much perhaps just an influx of people.

Which "investment" is the "best" all depends on what happens.  That is such a simple-minded statement, but a neglected thought (and more complex than the statement appears at first glance) in most of these discussions of a SHTF.

It has always been my working thesis that none (let's say very few) of us can know the future.  It is too complex, and whatever variables that Armstrong can crunch (and his work appears to be of great value) cannot foresee events caused by the Beijing Butterfly's flapping wings...  Imagination and information (which Armstrong has) cannot cover all the bases.

Nonetheless, there are trends that do appear to be unstoppable, or nearly so.  iamnotback & Armstrong, IMO, both appear to be correct in their general analyses of trends that look to be very powerful, and even explanatory, in shaping events to come.

OROBTC, I agree. No-one can know for certain. Armstrong seems to have a very in depth knowledge of historical models, which is really a study in human psychology, how society & power react in times of wealth/power/collapse. MA has been talking a sovereign debt collapse for years, no different from the Rickards of the world. But their delivery and styles are much different. BUt add bits and pieces of relevant info from others too . Dent and Kiyosaki have talked about demographics for a long time, others point out leverage, debt, geopolitic tension, deep state etc etc. Somewhere in there is the recipe for the next big thing.

Rickards book is much darker than I had imagined. His previous works have talked of crisis and monetary resets but here he is point blank saying that we are heading into explicit fascism (not the soft kind we already have) and a complete lockdown of the system:

*Militarization of Police
*Digitilization of Surveillance
*Criminalization of everyday behaviour
*Politicization of Justice.

It ties a lot of things together and has made me think that getting more into crypto might not be such a bad idea.

Nor had I ever considered that TB might come back, bigger and badder than ever.

When you consider that Spanish Flu during WW1 killed more people than the war itself, you can see the disastrous potential that drug resistant bugs pose. Add to this the means of spreading global in 24hrs or the (hopefully) remote possibility of a 12 Monkeys kind of scenario (deliberate release of pathogen) and it feels we are teetering on the edge of something.

For me, I think currently we are a mix of 1984 and Brave New World. Hopefully we don't get to The Road.

Maybe too much doom porn for me today

[iamnotback]

It has always been my working thesis that none (let's say very few) of us can know the future.  It is too complex...

For one thing, there is A REASON the majority of large human settlements through history have been bordering the ocean.  If the crops go bad or if there's some type of scarcity issue, people just ratchet up the fishing.  There will be no global "TEOTWAWKI".

Sorry guys but you are incorrect. Stage #5 is not just one of many possible outcomes, it is the ONLY possible outcome. And the totalitarianism will be global w.r.t. to all things tangible and physical (including precious metals!), thus the only release valve frontier will be decentralization network technology. See the problem with your idyllic and naive fishing plan, is that some power will be preventing you from fishing as TSHTF, because the masses are going to be demanding that the resources are shared equally (which will morph into rationing+eugenics) and the chaos is going to dictate that there is fighting over control of all strategic resources. Remember the masses are not armed (especially outside of the USA) and for example the coasts in the USA are leftists controlled States, e.g. California, Washington and the north-east seaboard. China has ample military to occupy the West coast of the USA and prop up the leftists. The fish food supply would be critical if the conservative interior of the country has shut off supply of food to the coasts. Shutting down trade with the world and access to electronics and other technology can cripple the interior of the USA. An essential ingredient is have an interior that is steadfast on resisting international cooperation and the rise of China, which is Trump is the leading edge of right now. China will see itself as leading the "free" world to international harmony by defeating the renegade white supremacists in the USA. It is very obvious why Rothschild used his influence over Wikileaks and media in the USA to install Trump (also so the conservatives will eat the blame for the global collapse caused by socialism).

The socialism doesn't just die overnight. It dies a painful death of self-destructive totalitarianism. Haven't you guys learned anything from the studying the history of the collapse of Germany or Rome.

If you want to understand why the entropy of the top-down ordered outcome is so low and thus so predictable, refer to the Petri dish analogy from my seminal essay:

Understand Everything Fundamentally <--- published in 2011, also here.

Also you have to factor in that China and Russia don't have the socialism and pension debts problem that the West has (their debts can be written off as their demographics and unfunded social liabilities are not yet a huge inertia so their downturn can bottom in 2020 whereas the West will continue to disintegrate even after 2032); thus as China is rebalancing their economy from the Industrial Age exports to the Knowledge Age service industry and consumption (see upthread links to Michael Pettis' blogs), they will displace the West, become the new financial center of the world, and be very strong. Thus the totalitarianism isn't going to abate, because on the heels of the disintegration of the West, China's and Russia's Technocracy form of oligarchy control is rising to a NWO. After Rothschilds' succeeds in dividing-and-conquering Europe and the USA, then he will send Chinese troops into the USA and Russian troops into Europe to complete the NWO enslavement. You aren't going to have any respite. The only release valve is going to be decentralization network technology. The Barbarians are the gates and in another couple to few of decades they will be in your living room. Your silly tangible assets are going to be pet rocks.

What Rothschilds is doing right now is building a short dollar vortex of epic pain, so the world will hate the concept of a reserve currency controlled by any one nation. So the world will acceded to an international cooperative SDR reserve unit (which of course Rothshilds will control with the international central bank).

there are too many variables out there, too many "Swans", for me to find it useful in a practical way.

Then all planning is useless.

Of course it is nonsense that we are entirely incapable of understanding human transformation and doing some planning.

Just throwing your hands in the air and saying everything is random is not at all in touch with reality. This is what pushes you back to gold, because you only trust the past. If everything was entirely random, then we couldn't even be sure if we can breath if we open the door. The reason we have great confidence that there is oxygen in the next room is because it is a very low entropy result to maintain a vacuum.

By understanding entropy, we can indeed understand the progression of society. CoinCube's model is all about transitions to higher levels of entropy (not energy unless perhaps he is thinking of potential energy and its relationship to degrees-of-freedom) and the contention between top-down order and bottom-up disorder that facilitates it.

Unlike Anonymint, I do not believe we live in a deterministic universe.

Readers please note that r0ach continues to write lies both about my and Armstrong's stances.

I even explained to him upthread how the universe remains unbounded in entropy (and thus not deterministic), yet cycles can be still be valid. A cycle doesn't tell you every damn little detail.

The sun rises every day, but that doesn't mean the bugs wake up or visit the same flower every sunrise.

It is really annoying the various crap that writers do on these forums by insinuating or attributing positions to others which are not their positions. It is not professional behavior.

[tabnloz]

It has always been my working thesis that none (let's say very few) of us can know the future.  It is too complex...

For one thing, there is A REASON the majority of large human settlements through history have been bordering the ocean.  If the crops go bad or if there's some type of scarcity issue, people just ratchet up the fishing.  There will be no global "TEOTWAWKI".

Sorry guys but you are incorrect. Stage #5 is not just one of many possible outcomes, it is the ONLY possible outcome. And the totalitarianism will be global w.r.t. to all things tangible and physical (including precious metals!), thus the only release valve frontier will be decentralization network technology. See the problem with your idyllic and naive fishing plan, is that some power will be preventing you from fishing as TSHTF, because the masses are going to be demanding that the resources are shared equally (which will morph into rationing+eugenics) and the chaos is going to dictate that there is fighting over control of all strategic resources. Remember the masses are not armed (especially outside of the USA) and for example the coasts in the USA are leftists controlled States, e.g. California, Washington and the north-east seaboard. China has ample military to occupy the West coast of the USA and prop up the leftists. The fish food supply would be critical if the conservative interior of the country has shut off supply of food to the coasts. Shutting down trade with the world and access to electronics and other technology can cripple the interior of the USA. An essential ingredient is have an interior that is steadfast on resisting international cooperation and the rise of China, which is Trump is the leading edge of right now. China will see itself as leading the "free" world to international harmony by defeating the renegade white supremacists in the USA. It is very obvious why Rothschild used his influence over Wikileaks and media in the USA to install Trump (also so the conservatives will eat the blame for the global collapse caused by socialism).

The socialism doesn't just die overnight. It dies a painful death of self-destructive totalitarianism. Haven't you guys learned anything from the studying the history of the collapse of Germany or Rome.

If you want to understand why the entropy of the top-down ordered outcome is so low and thus so predictable, refer to the Petri dish analogy from my seminal essay:

Understand Everything Fundamentally <--- published in 2011, also here.

Also you have to factor in that China and Russia don't have the socialism and pension debts problem that the West has (their debts can be written off as their demographics and unfunded social liabilities are not yet a huge inertia so their downturn can bottom in 2020 whereas the West will continue to disintegrate even after 2032); thus as China is rebalancing their economy from the Industrial Age exports to the Knowledge Age service industry and consumption (see upthread links to Michael Pettis' blogs), they will displace the West, become the new financial center of the world, and be very strong. Thus the totalitarianism isn't going to abate, because on the heels of the disintegration of the West, China's and Russia's Technocracy form of oligarchy control is rising to a NWO. After Rothschilds' succeeds in dividing-and-conquering Europe and the USA, then he will send Chinese troops into the USA and Russian troops into Europe to complete the NWO enslavement. You aren't going to have any respite. The only release valve is going to be decentralization network technology. The Barbarians are the gates and in another couple to few of decades they will be in your living room. Your silly tangible assets are going to be pet rocks.

What Rothschilds is doing right now is building a short dollar vortex of epic pain, so the world will hate the concept of a reserve currency controlled by any one nation. So the world will acceded to an international cooperative SDR reserve unit (which of course Rothshilds will control with the international central bank).

Interesting that the tension over the South China Sea & islands is to do with trade (shipping routes) and fishing (to feed the CHinese). Harbinger of things to come perhaps.

w.r.t Socialism, Rickards point in RtR is that Schumpeter saw this coming: capitalism gets overtaken by Socialism and turns into Fascism due to its success. Schumpeter saw it as inevitable. Socialism offers the masses something, encouraging them not to overthrow the ruling elite. Slowly over time, government takes more and more over & becomes fascist slowly - it allows big business to thrive but regulates their space. In fact it aims to regulate every space. The Internet is available but telco providers are regulated etc etc. (my interpretation may be slightly off here).

Im sure you realise how outlandish it sounds to say Chinese troops will be stateside sometime soon!! That is going out on a limb, but there are many more examples of these things happening. (My take is that the US will side with Russia against China.)

[Lateralus]

Socialism offers the masses something

And what is that exactly, other than a miserable stagnant existence in the self administered chains of dependence? Or are you simply referring to the illusions that socialists have fallen for? I hope I'm not the only one who realizes that the systemically poor deserve exactly what they get, and get exactly what they demand. By demanding the redistribution of wealth they ask that compassion and empathy be made mandatory, which in reality means they are asking for a world in which all forms of genuine compassion and empathy be eliminated. The only possible victory scenario of socialism is successfully bringing the rest of mankind down with it, but in it's defeat we would see the greatest possible good for the greatest number of people (Karl Marx eat your heart out).

As a species we finally got rid of it (at least officially) in 1981 when Mauritania became the last nation to outlaw slavery.

Slavery has not been eliminated. And will never be eliminated. Because it is natural. Laws outlawing what is natural, never work. Anti-usury laws didn't work either.

Man thinks he is more powerful than he really is.

There are damned facts that we perhaps wish were not true, but I don't see how it will help me by lying to myself, just because those realities are uncomfortable.

BTW I was reading back through this thread and I found I seriously disagree with this statement. I think men merely mistake the oppression of nature and of their direct ancestors poor decision making for oppression by the hand of their fellow living man. Slavery between men can be eliminated or at the very least virtually eliminated. You can look at it from a point of view of diminishing returns in nonlinear dynamic systems, in that a society that is 99% free of coercion is basically just as good as a theoretically 100% coercion-free society while also being exponentially easier to attain the further you get away from that 100% theoretical goal.

Maybe you can expand on your reasoning because I just don't see it.

[r0ach]

Im sure you realise how outlandish it sounds to say Chinese troops will be stateside sometime soon!! That is going out on a limb, but there are many more examples of these things happening. (My take is that the US will side with Russia against China.)

Yea, there's Anonymint going off into bullshit fantasy land.  The more the paper tiger known as Jewish bankers that only consists of two branches (lying media and financially manipulating banks) tries to come down on the western white man, the faster they will all get holocausted.  What a nonsensical plan Anonymint postulates, that they could somehow take over every town in America militarily.  Even using foreign troops it would be a disaster for them.  Send 100 to try and lock down a small town I'm in and all 100 will be leaving in body bags after they figure out what one person with a rifle and scope can do.  

Nevermind the fact there will be far more than one person doing this besides me.  When civilization has already imploded and you've got nothing to lose, why not?

[iamnotback]

Socialism offers the masses something

And what is that exactly, other than a miserable stagnant existence in the self administered chains of dependence? Or are you simply referring to the illusions that socialists have fallen for? I hope I'm not the only one who realizes that the systemically poor deserve exactly what they get, and get exactly what they demand. By demanding the redistribution of wealth they ask that compassion and empathy be made mandatory, which in reality means they are asking for a world in which all forms of genuine compassion and empathy be eliminated. The only possible victory scenario of socialism is successfully bringing the rest of mankind down with it, but in it's defeat we would see the greatest possible good for the greatest number of people (Karl Marx eat your heart out).

The Coasian barrier of the need for concentration of fixed investment capital in the Industrial Age was the cause. Click the quoted thread below for more in depth analysis:

The only source of Marxism is the Jews, it does not originate from anywhere else.

The actual source is the power vacuum created by the natural requirement to concentrate fixed capital in the Industrial Age. The banksters just stepped into that natural power vacuum.

As a species we finally got rid of it (at least officially) in 1981 when Mauritania became the last nation to outlaw slavery.

Slavery has not been eliminated. And will never be eliminated. Because it is natural. Laws outlawing what is natural, never work. Anti-usury laws didn't work either.

Man thinks he is more powerful than he really is.

There are damned facts that we perhaps wish were not true, but I don't see how it will help me by lying to myself, just because those realities are uncomfortable.

BTW I was reading back through this thread and I found I seriously disagree with this statement. I think men merely mistake the oppression of nature and of their direct ancestors poor decision making for oppression by the hand of their fellow living man. Slavery between men can be eliminated or at the very least virtually eliminated. You can look at it from a point of view of diminishing returns in nonlinear dynamic systems, in that a society that is 99% free of coercion is basically just as good as a theoretically 100% coercion-free society while also being exponentially easier to attain the further you get away from that 100% theoretical goal.

Maybe you can expand on your reasoning because I just don't see it.

100% independence would be infinite entropy, thus the past and future would not be differentiated and we would not exist. There was a longer discussion which you can jump into the middle of here.

[iamnotback]

Im sure you realise how outlandish it sounds to say Chinese troops will be stateside sometime soon!! That is going out on a limb, but there are many more examples of these things happening. (My take is that the US will side with Russia against China.)

Yea, there's Anonymint going off into bullshit fantasy land.  The more the paper tiger known as Jewish bankers that only consists of two branches (lying media and financially manipulating banks) tries to come down on the western white man, the faster they will all get holocausted.  What a nonsensical plan Anonymint postulates, that they could somehow take over every town in America militarily.  Even using foreign troops it would be a disaster for them.  Send 100 to try and lock down a small town I'm in and all 100 will be leaving in body bags after they figure out what one person with a rifle and scope can do.

I've noticed that r0ach has very poor reading comprehension. He apparently didn't pay close attention to the fact that I emphasized the prospect of foreign troops occupying ONLY the liberal dominated coasts (and the critically strategic Gulf of Mexico where the all important continental-bisecting Mississippi River meets the world trade), so they could starve the interior of the country of imports, exports, rare earth metals, electronics, cheap oil (sorry fracking extraction isn't economic), international Internet connectivity, etc... The interior of the country would be embargoed (and bombed) back to the Iron Age and cottage industry blacksmiths.

Yeah r0ach's white supremacists are going to get their wish to end complexity and go back to very low productivity of the Amish with horse drawn plows. A gun under every blade of grass will be entirely useless. Checkmate. (those guns will ultimately likely be turned on each other as the economic failure results in every white supremacist warlord for himself with Rothschild ROFLMAO)

The fundamental error of Trump, James Donaldson, r0ach, and other white supremacists retards is that he who controls world trade, controls the top-down outcome. That controlling entity is Rothschild. But the top-down economy is ultimately controlled by the bottom-up Knowledge Age, so that is why the new frontier is decentralized networking technology.

Btw, Russia and China are playing the USA as a fool. While the USA thinks it is dividing-and-conquering the two, they are just biding their time pretending to be aligned to different factions within the USA and they are dividing-and-conquering the USA.

With now more than 50% of the population of the USA conquered by Marxism, it is impossible for the conservative half to split off and retain the military power that the USA has which is actually controlled by the DEEP STATE within the government which is controlled by Rothschild. The conservatives can only split off as a revolutionary militias in the interior of the country, but they can't massacre or starve to death the other 50% without the international community intervening with the USA military divided-and-conquered by refusal of the officers and soldiers to obey orders to shoot their own brethren (whether they be liberals or conservatives).

[r0ach]

Anonymint, seriously, you're just randomly making shit up here.  Nobody has any clue how this is going to play out, not the bankers, not you, not anyone else.  The bankers all have their schemes of what they "hope" they can pull off, then a bunch of alternative backup plans to that.  I'm sure enslaving everyone in a digital currency is one of the top goals, then being forced to remonetize the system by revaluing metals is probably plan 3 or 4.  Regardless, they're not getting all their dream plans checked off in the current world climate.  If anything they're rapidly losing ground and will be forced to shift to those plan 3, 4, and 5's.

[iamnotback]

Anonymint, seriously, you're just randomly making shit up here.

My track record has been phenomenal.

http://unheresy.com/Essence%20of%20Genius.html

Btw, you attacked the messenger, not the message. Try again to refute the discussed Cycles of Contentionism and the other generative essence that high IQ has discerned. For example, you were completely pwned by @CoinCube on the concept of Exter's pyramid.

That Nature journal is a controlled propaganda sourcegatekeeper. Dig more and you will find out it will be worse than that. We are headed into another LIA, but also factor in that the magnetic poles are moving at a very rapid rate in an opposite direction since 2000 coincident with the change from global warming to cooling which could exacerbate climate upheaval:

Funny how all your links without any kind of sources are heavily trustable but any source we give that doesn't go like you is a controlled propaganda source xD

Okay Pocahontas.

Most people wouldn't be capable of discerning facts if they were a tree that hit them in the face.

[r0ach]

For example, you were completely pwned by @CoinCube on the concept of Exter's pyramid.

You have to be joking.  If anything he made himself look foolish claiming bitcoin actually has the capability of defeating the gold market cap.  You've made how many threads yourself saying bitcoin has no future?  Now you're taking the opposite stance for shits and giggles even though you know it's wrong. 

I guess you could claim the bankers might try to hoist a digital currency scam system upon the serfs, then they would artificially inflate the market cap of the digital numbers that don't exist as more than imagination, and that will somehow surpass the market cap of gold; but at the same time, the central bankers would just buy up and hoard all the gold for themselves.  So the gold in reality is more valuable since they value it more than non-existent digital numbers.  The whole thing in that case would just be a trick and the gold really would still be more valuable...

[iamnotback]

For example, you were completely pwned by @CoinCube on the concept of Exter's pyramid.

You have to be joking.  If anything he made himself look foolish claiming bitcoin actually has the capability of defeating the gold market cap.  You've made how many threads yourself saying bitcoin has no future?  Now you're just randomly taking the exact opposite stance even though you know it's wrong.

We are not joking and we know we won that point emphatically and you looked so silly.

There are many details which you fail to assimilate. For example, you are conflating Bitcoin with crypto-currency and decentralized networking technology in general. Napster wasn't the end of file sharing.

File sharing is orders-of-magnitude more used now than it was no long ago during the peak of Napster. That is what will happen to gold's market cap, which btw is 3-4 orders-of-magnitude overstated if we are talking about the physical gold traded by the goldbugs. Nearly all of the gold is controlled by the elite.

[r0ach]

I re-wrote the second part of my reply.  I do not believe there will ever be a case of imaginary digital numbers having more value than something that actually exists.  It will always just be a deception involving asymmetric deployment of information:

I guess you could claim the bankers might try to hoist a digital currency scam system upon the serfs, then they would artificially inflate the market cap of the digital numbers that don't exist as more than imagination, and that will somehow surpass the market cap of gold; but at the same time, the central bankers would just buy up and hoard all the gold for themselves.  So the gold in reality is more valuable since they value it more than non-existent digital numbers.  The whole thing in that case would just be a trick and the gold really would still be more valuable...

[iamnotback]

I re-wrote the second part of my reply.  I do not believe there will ever be a case of imaginary digital numbers having more value than something that actually exists.  It will always just be a deception involving asymmetric deployment of information:

I guess you could claim the bankers might try to hoist a digital currency scam system upon the serfs, then they would artificially inflate the market cap of the digital numbers that don't exist as more than imagination, and that will somehow surpass the market cap of gold; but at the same time, the central bankers would just buy up and hoard all the gold for themselves.  So the gold in reality is more valuable since they value it more than non-existent digital numbers.  The whole thing in that case would just be a trick and the gold really would still be more valuable...

r0ach your myopia is that you don't understand the scientific fact that the entropic force (The Second Law of Thermodynamics) is cardinal to everything else.

We've even now seen that gravity is an emergent phenomenon of the entropic force (the trend towards ever increasing entropy and the irreversibility of thermodynamic processes).

What this means is that it is irrelevant what the banksters value most, if they are not in alignment with the entropic trend. What nature values is increasing entropy and thus increasing decentralization is more valuable if the Coasian barriers are congruent.

You will learn this lesson the hard way.

Gravity is tangible but it emerges purely from an intangible force of the trend towards increasing (Shannon) information.

https://steemit.com/science/@anonymint/the-golden-knowledge-age-is-rising
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg17408195#msg17408195
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg17395839#msg17395839
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1624708.msg16396856#msg16396856
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=495527.msg16593330#msg16593330

Your conceptualization of reality needs to be updated.

He is not buying for a rational reason of buying low and selling high. For him, it is a religion against paper gold.

You are asking him to admit his entire thesis for his life is an error.

No offense, but your thesis on a so called knowledge age is completely irrational.  When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.  They never jump into a higher tier of complexity.  Complex systems also tend to require exponential resource (energy) curves.  Peak conventional crude oil already happened in 2004.  Peak working age demographic already occurred in every nation that matters.

Wealth comes from people doing work in the real world, not shuffling around papers.  That work is either done from things like burning fuel to do the work for you, or humans physically doing it themselves.

Your thesis is entirely incorrect.

You had better wake up else you will entirely miss the boat.

Profit margins from mass production are dying. The future profit will increasingly come from creativity.

...8<... [content elided]

The only constant is the Second Law of Thermodynamics which informs us that entropy is trending to maximum. The Knowledge Age is all about increasing entropy. You had better make sure you understand this and stop clinging to incorrect bullshit.

[iamnotback]

It is very crucial that readers you understand what Stage #5 entails and the timing.

The French election in April/May will set fire to the EU and Euro, that will accelerate the short dollar vortex...

Which Martin Armstrong claims to have predicted 30 years ago:

QUESTION: Hi Martin It’s been 30 years since I first saw you speak ... How time flies. That said why have you not talked about the 86 year Sovereign Debt cycle that is forecasting a Great Depression for 2017. Have the monetary powers delayed this?

ANSWER: No. 2017 is the start of this whole mess. We have bank runs in Greece because the prevailing view is that Merkel will not relent and Greece cannot pay. This is why we are holding two conferences this year because it is very important and it is why I highlighted Greece in the report we issued for 2017.

BTW, thank you for this old hand drawn chart I did so long ago. I didn’t have a copy of it. People do not realize that these forecasts were made decades ago.

This year 2017 will be just the beginning.

Btw, as of 2012, I was aware of Armstrong's predictions made back in 1998 for everything that has occurred hence.

I was aware of Armstrong's 78-year real-estate cycle (≈π⁸ × 3) as of 2013 and was trying to relate it to my concept of a global technology cycle and Second Computer Revolution which I had written about in an essay I had written around the same time.

Edit: note 86 years ≈π⁹ + (π⁷ ÷ 2)

[tabnloz]

Socialism offers the masses something

And what is that exactly, other than a miserable stagnant existence in the self administered chains of dependence? Or are you simply referring to the illusions that socialists have fallen for? I hope I'm not the only one who realizes that the systemically poor deserve exactly what they get, and get exactly what they demand. By demanding the redistribution of wealth they ask that compassion and empathy be made mandatory, which in reality means they are asking for a world in which all forms of genuine compassion and empathy be eliminated. The only possible victory scenario of socialism is successfully bringing the rest of mankind down with it, but in it's defeat we would see the greatest possible good for the greatest number of people (Karl Marx eat your heart out).

I'm referring to Schumpeters historical model interpretation of the inevitable evolution of capitalism; that Capitalism made many wealthy and was successful. In order to 'keep' this success (and not be subject to creative destruction) Government (it was originally Bismark) offers workers better hours, health care and pensions, thus improving their lives. The effect, in return, was not to revolt. Therefore the workers win, government wins (monarchy in Bismarks case) and the elites win. The elites / big business win because capitalism made them wealthy and government regulates, generally cementing that wealth by cost of entry. At this stage it evolves into soft fascism, where big business consolidates power and can even lobby to influence expensive regulation (established shared monopolies find compliance easier to pay for than upstarts) - eg's how banks are bigger & more powerful after Dodd-Frank regs.

To do this government sucked the wealth out of the middle class.

[tabnloz]

It is very crucial that readers you understand what Stage #5 entails and the timing.

The French election in April/May will set fire to the EU and Euro, that will accelerate the short dollar vortex...

Which Martin Armstrong claims to have predicted 30 years ago:

QUESTION: Hi Martin It’s been 30 years since I first saw you speak ... How time flies. That said why have you not talked about the 86 year Sovereign Debt cycle that is forecasting a Great Depression for 2017. Have the monetary powers delayed this?

ANSWER: No. 2017 is the start of this whole mess. We have bank runs in Greece because the prevailing view is that Merkel will not relent and Greece cannot pay. This is why we are holding two conferences this year because it is very important and it is why I highlighted Greece in the report we issued for 2017.

BTW, thank you for this old hand drawn chart I did so long ago. I didn’t have a copy of it. People do not realize that these forecasts were made decades ago.

This year 2017 will be just the beginning.

iamnotback have seen a few MA charts with 2017.



Sovereign Debt Crisis wave formation - https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-sovereign-debt-crisis-on-schedule/    seems here MA is predicting a surge in stocks at 2017 Pi target

ECM Business Cycle - http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com/ later in Nov

[tabnloz]

iamnotback,

if you are working to tie in Armstrongs work with your own -  how / does China's lack of knowledge capital (due to export driven / cheap labor economy - from your essay) link up to the rise in Asia after MA's forecast of the Sovereign Debt Bubble bursting (Asia first, then the West). I'm assuming here that China's size will lead Asia? Would be an interesting read.

[iamnotback]

iamnotback,

if you are working to tie in Armstrongs work with your own -  how / does China's lack of knowledge capital (due to export driven / cheap labor economy - from your essay) link up to the rise in Asia after MA's forecast of the Sovereign Debt Bubble bursting (Asia first, then the West). I'm assuming here that China's size will lead Asia? Would be an interesting read.

Please refer to the link to the upthread discussion of Michael Pettis' blogs in my recent comments. China is transitioning from an unbalanced export, fixed capital intensive Industrial Age economy to a service, consumer oriented Knowledge Age economy. The bottom in 2020 of China's downturn, will be the shift over point where China can start growing again.

Asia has the youth. The West has infanticide, feminism, multiculturalism, bankrupt pensions, Marxism, and $trillions in unfunded liabilities to its useless population of spoiled brats. The West will continue collapsing through at least 2032.95. Then it may get a deadcat bounce, then collapsing anew until it is third world economy. Spain's fall from a world empire to a third world country is exemplary. It remains to be seen if and how soon the productive cultures that remain in the West can effectively break away from the useless dead weight. Spain was mired for a century in the infighting as it collapsed from within.

[iamnotback]

Rome's example is instructive.

I was aware of Armstrong's 78-year real-estate cycle (≈π⁸ × 3) as of 2013 and was trying to relate it to my concept of a global technology cycle and Second Computer Revolution which I had written about in an essay I had written around the same time.

Edit: note 86 years ≈π⁹ + (π⁷ ÷ 2)

Note the edits in red. Afaik, Armstrong has never written it this way. He always writes π x 1000 days = 8.6 years. My math above is more accurate and consistent.

[r0ach]

Spain's fall from a world empire to a third world country is exemplary.

Haha, Spain's fall from world empire to third world country?  If Spain is a 3rd world country, what is America?  An 8th world country?

Capital of Spain



vs

Capital of America