Martin Armstrong Discussion

[iamnotback]

Spain's fall from a world empire to a third world country is exemplary.

Haha, Spain's fall from world empire to third world country?  If Spain is a 3rd world country, what is America?  An 8th world country?

Spain in the 19th century (especially by the latter half) was not experiencing the Industrial revolution and was falling way behind England (UK). And much of the population worked in menial labor like a 3rd world country. It wasn't until the 1950s that Spain started to advance again (but one can argue they really never did recover, that their corrupt governance has persisted, and it has all been a EU hot capital debt bubble that will soon implode anew).

Comparing the grandest cities of Spain (built when it was the world's greatest empire plundering the gold of the colonies) to the an inner city housing slum in the USA is not compares apples-to-apples. Find photos of rural life and squalor in Spain in the 19th century.

http://www.localhistories.org/spain.html

The loss of Spain's vast colonial empire greatly deprived the country of much wealth and it was soon reduced to one of Europe's poorest and least-developed nations. Over three-quarters of the population were illiterate and there was little industry except textile production in Catalonia. Although Spain possessed the iron and coal needed for industrial development, most was in the north and northeast and difficult to transport across the vast arid plain of the central Iberian Peninsula. Worsening matters were the lack of navigable rivers and a very rudimentary road network. British industrialists taught Spaniards how to extract iron ore while others studied the possibility of constructing a railroad system. Railroad pioneer George Stephenson, after conducting a survey of Spain, commented that "I have not seen enough people of the sort to fill even a single train." By the time a railroad network eventually got built, it merely radiated from Madrid outward and bypassed the major centers of natural resources.

High tariffs also dogged Spanish development, especially grain, of which imports were almost completely barred. The eastern provinces had to pay high costs for domestic cereals transported with the greatest difficulty across the peninsula while cheap Italian grain could have been easily imported from ship. Although Spain had been a major textile exporter in earlier times, the country could no longer compete with British and other producers and by the 19th century, most of its exports consisted of agricultural products. Catalonia was the only part of the country with any significant industry, but Castile remained the political and cultural center, barring major change.

Spain had only Conquistadors, religion, and banana republic culture of aristocracy. So after losing its colonies, it had nothing of value.

[iamnotback]

Wear a well fitted mask over your mouth and nose while traveling and being exposed to people, especially if you traveling even in South Korea, Asia in general, Russia, Eastern Europe and pretty much any where other than very white affluent areas of the world:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1739268.msg17927248#msg17927248
https://drtbnetwork.org/17-using-xpert-mtbrif-diagnose-mdr-tb

[gumbi6]

On MA recent blog post https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/why-you-should-take-delivery/

I am using Interactive Brokers who hold securities in street name and do not take stock delivery as far as I am aware, Should clients be
concerned about this?

[sidhujag]

On MA recent blog post https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/why-you-should-take-delivery/

I am using Interactive Brokers who hold securities in street name and do not take stock delivery as far as I am aware, Should clients be
concerned about this?

You are classified as a different trader if you notify futures exchange your intent is to take delivery.. its kind of stupid

When those certs are settled onchain it will make it alot easier to be fraudproof. Infact its something im looking into... being legally able to sell shares of stock through digital certificates on the blockchain.

[thatbluedude]

On MA recent blog post https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/why-you-should-take-delivery/

I am using Interactive Brokers who hold securities in street name and do not take stock delivery as far as I am aware, Should clients be
concerned about this?

When Armstrong says take delivery, does he mean own Registered shares or take physical delivery of a piece of paper? Because the later doesn't really seem to be available to average joes.
What are the implications for etfs? Sell and buy individual stocks? Till when? Can I at least wait until the 2018 dow top?

[tabnloz]

On MA recent blog post https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/why-you-should-take-delivery/

I am using Interactive Brokers who hold securities in street name and do not take stock delivery as far as I am aware, Should clients be
concerned about this?

You are classified as a different trader if you notify futures exchange your intent is to take delivery.. its kind of stupid

When those certs are settled onchain it will make it alot easier to be fraudproof. Infact its something im looking into... being legally able to sell shares of stock through digital certificates on the blockchain.

Is this what Overstock was working towards?

[sidhujag]

On MA recent blog post https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/why-you-should-take-delivery/

I am using Interactive Brokers who hold securities in street name and do not take stock delivery as far as I am aware, Should clients be
concerned about this?

You are classified as a different trader if you notify futures exchange your intent is to take delivery.. its kind of stupid

When those certs are settled onchain it will make it alot easier to be fraudproof. Infact its something im looking into... being legally able to sell shares of stock through digital certificates on the blockchain.

Is this what Overstock was working towards?

I believe it went live T0 is the platform

[miscreanity]

Rome's example is instructive.

I was aware of Armstrong's 78-year real-estate cycle (≈π⁸ × 3) as of 2013 and was trying to relate it to my concept of a global technology cycle and Second Computer Revolution which I had written about in an essay I had written around the same time.

Edit: note 86 years ≈π⁹ + (π⁷ ÷ 2)

Note the edits in red. Afaik, Armstrong has never written it this way. He always writes π x 1000 days = 8.6 years. My math above is more accurate and consistent.

I had always found the numbers oddly arbitrary, aside from using Pi. Have you checked how events line up?

[iamnotback]

I'm not believing any more in the "unregulated" part.  Yes, it will keep the appearances of "unregulated and distributed" but in fact it will be entirely institutionalized behind the doors.  Bitcoin will be (if it isn't already) an institution's crypto.  Of course it will not go away,  but it will not be what you think it is.  It will be like gold.  Mainly manipulated, stored, owned, regulated by central banks.  If it isn't already.  The Chinese gov already has put their hands on the big Chinese exchanges.  I'm sure the big miners are next.  Of course, officially, the gov doesn't own them.  But they tell them what to do.

Perhaps you missed one of my critically important posts lately explaining why gold is centralized but crypto-currency is not:

...no electricity and [no Internet]...

Such a total order is impossible because it would require snuffing out every decentralized instance of human ingenuity hiding under every blade of grass on the planet:

(for the same reason NWO can't physically confiscate all the precious metals but NWO can sure as hell make them illiquid as I explained upthread^[1] because of their requirement to be physically traded with centralized market makers who have large economies-of-scale; whereas, the NWO can't make crypto-currency illiquid because just like prohibition of alcohol in the prior century and decentralized file sharing, the more they try to stop it, the more decentralized users of it will increase)

...

Bitcoin can't be regulated without a total order of government in the world. And that isn't coming in the next year. By the time TPTB get their NWO one-world government system cooperation in place, Bitcoin will have already served its role as the onramp to unregulated decentralization technology innovation.

China and others make a lot of noise about regulation, but as you see they all end up caving in and realizing they can't regulate private keys. Even if China monopolizes the mining, they can't blacklist private keys without destroying Bitcoin and forcing a new altcoin to rise to take its place. Bitcoin is far too small (compared the $trillions flow of FX capital flow in China) for China to attempt such a scorched earth policy on mining at this time (and they would likely fail just causing the rest of the world to blacklist China's mining pools or a fork changing the hash causing all China's mining farm investments to become useless overnight).

But behind the scenes, these deep state agents will in fact *put their hands on the bitcoin market* by owning a lot of it, but mainly, by telling the main (centralized) actors how to behave so that it suits them.

That is hand waving. The only way to stop someone who has his own wallet is to blacklist on the blockchain. Now that person can go online and state that his transaction has not be added by any miner after such a long period of time. The community will investigate. The only way to snuff out this exchange of information is to have a total order of totalitarian control on the Internet.

Sorry your fears are unfounded. If ever it happens, then we are already in 1984 and we're all doomed.

You seem to have a doomsday attitude, so I don't think you are likely to be in touch with the reality of what will transpire:

I don't think we will reach stage #6.  The Singularity will hit us first.  We are just the breading ground for the machines to take over.  They will take over the totalitarian mechanisms set in place in stage #5.

Btw, I have refuted the Singularity in the past. It will never happen.

I don't want to debate it again right now, which is why I didn't respond to the above comment in that thread.

Just put it this way, total orders have never existed in our universe. So the probability of total doomsday is 0.

For machines to become more important than humans from an evolutionary standpoint (which is all that matters actually in terms of species extinction), then they must become alive and that means they must have a bell curve of attributes and have failure. Because without failure, there isn't existence of life (the past and future will collapse into undifferentiated without friction and imperfection).

Infinite entropy can't exist. Kurzweil is a smart idiot.

[r0ach]

Bitcoin will have already served its role as the onramp to unregulated decentralization technology innovation.

Any non-fungible cryptocurrency with white and black lists is a permissioned ledger by default.  As I said before, the govt is going to create an alias system wrapper that goes around bitcoin and force everyone to use it by law or be considered a criminal launderer.  They will then eventually do the old switcharoo and divorce the alias system tokens away from representing bitcoin into being IMF coin or something.  It's far more likely the govt co-opts bitcoin and turns it into the cashless society slave system rather than it acting as an "on-ramp" to freedom.

It's plain as day to see what's going to happen with laws like this coming out in Japan:

"Only approved virtual currencies by the authority are considered legitimate and can be traded, sold or promoted to public"

This means govt is the legal arbitrator of forks.  The US, UK, and EU will hold a meeting and all collude saying only the fork with chain anchor or worse is the real bitcoin!  Since they can easily control the exchanges and mining pools, people will be forced to use that fork or have their coins become worthless.  The only reason bitcoin isn't illegal is because they know how easy it is to co-opt and morph it into their cashless society control grid.

[OROBTC]

Bitcoin will have already served its role as the onramp to unregulated decentralization technology innovation.

Any non-fungible cryptocurrency with white and black lists is a permissioned ledger by default.  As I said before, the govt is going to create an alias system wrapper that goes around bitcoin and force everyone to use it by law or be considered a criminal launderer.  They will then eventually do the old switcharoo and divorce the alias system tokens away from representing bitcoin into being IMF coin or something.  It's far more likely the govt co-opts bitcoin and turns it into the cashless society slave system rather than it acting as an "on-ramp" to freedom.

It's plain as day to see what's going to happen with laws like this coming out in Japan:

"Only approved virtual currencies by the authority are considered legitimate and can be traded, sold or promoted to public"

This means govt is the legal arbitrator of forks.  The US, UK, and EU will hold a meeting and all collude saying only the fork with chain anchor or worse is the real bitcoin!  Since they can easily control the exchanges and mining pools, people will be forced to use that fork or have their coins become worthless.  The only reason bitcoin isn't illegal is because they know how easy it is to co-opt and morph it into their cashless society control grid.

Keep in mind that while I am NOT a programmer, I continue to have my doubts re BTC (and its critical on- and off-ramps) can survive a determined attack by .gov, especially should they all act in concert (likely sooner or later).  The "Big Rhino" (US government) employs smart and determined people too.  Many of these .gov employees RESENT the freedoms that we still have in cyberspace.  It will likely get harder and harder to maintain privacy & financial freedom...

If it becomes sufficiently burdensome for "the masses" (I am one of them) to buy and spend BTC or other cryptos (got to have that gold delivered somewhere), that would never mean mass adoption.

And that, dear readers, is why I stay diversified.  You never know.

[iamnotback]

Bitcoin will have already served its role as the onramp to unregulated decentralization technology innovation.

Any non-fungible cryptocurrency with white and black lists is a permissioned ledger by default.  As I said before, the govt is going to create an alias system wrapper that goes around bitcoin and force everyone to use it by law or be considered a criminal launderer.  They will then eventually do the old switcharoo and divorce the alias system tokens away from representing bitcoin into being IMF coin or something.  It's far more likely the govt co-opts bitcoin and turns it into the cashless society slave system rather than it acting as an "on-ramp" to freedom.

It's plain as day to see what's going to happen with laws like this coming out in Japan:

"Only approved virtual currencies by the authority are considered legitimate and can be traded, sold or promoted to public"

This means govt is the legal arbitrator of forks.  The US, UK, and EU will hold a meeting and all collude saying only the fork with chain anchor or worse is the real bitcoin!  Since they can easily control the exchanges and mining pools, people will be forced to use that fork or have their coins become worthless.  The only reason bitcoin isn't illegal is because they know how easy it is to co-opt and morph it into their cashless society control grid.

Implausible when we will have anonymity on microtransactions. My conjecture is the governments can't afford to spend $1000s tracking down every $0.0001 transaction.

Although we will never have absolute iron-clad anonymity, since most people won't be doing anything illegal (e.g. sending an automated $0.0001 microtransaction when they click read a blog or listen to some music) and the coming Internet I am going to create will run on microtransactions, the governments won't be able to outlaw microtransactions. Will simply be too essential to the economy and popular to outlaw.

And privacy is important to everyone. Who wants the government snooping in your legal private affairs. We know that TSA agents were caught masturbating to the naked images from their airport body scanners.

[r0ach]

I don't see that happening.  I think they will use the legal system to unload a ton of draconian legislation and in the future, the only cryptocurrency transactions will be to and from fixed address aliases where the sender and receiver are known.  They will just make that the law and force the ecosystem to adapt to it and everyone will because they don't want the value of their coins going down.  It's ironic that govt imposing all these laws is actually beneficial to price because it symbolizes endorsement and that you should use it.

[sidhujag]

I don't see that happening.  I think they will use the legal system to unload a ton of draconian legislation and in the future, the only cryptocurrency transactions will be to and from fixed address aliases where the sender and receiver are known.  They will just make that the law and force the ecosystem to adapt to it and everyone will because they don't want the value of their coins going down.  It's ironic that govt imposing all these laws is actually beneficial to price because it symbolizes endorsement and that you should use it.

I dont think so.. they  will try for sure but free market always wins.. ideal money will come out on top every single time.

The proving you are who you are will be an optin service which works with kyc type of regulated businesses for the foreseeable future. I dont see how peoplr will work without kyc even with a feedback system.. witness signatures on transactions will be crucial.

[iamnotback]

I don't see that happening.  I think they will use the legal system to unload a ton of draconian legislation and in the future, the only cryptocurrency transactions will be to and from fixed address aliases where the sender and receiver are known.  They will just make that the law and force the ecosystem to adapt to it and everyone will because they don't want the value of their coins going down.  It's ironic that govt imposing all these laws is actually beneficial to price because it symbolizes endorsement and that you should use it.

I dont think so.. they  will try for sure but free market always wins.. ideal money will come out on top every single time.

Click here to read why (I think) @r0ach is incorrect and @sidhujag is correct.

[sidhujag]

I don't see that happening.  I think they will use the legal system to unload a ton of draconian legislation and in the future, the only cryptocurrency transactions will be to and from fixed address aliases where the sender and receiver are known.  They will just make that the law and force the ecosystem to adapt to it and everyone will because they don't want the value of their coins going down.  It's ironic that govt imposing all these laws is actually beneficial to price because it symbolizes endorsement and that you should use it.

I dont think so.. they  will try for sure but free market always wins.. ideal money will come out on top every single time.

Click here to read why (I think) @r0ach is incorrect and @sidhujag is correct.

Agree mostly and id like to add that people thinking theres order within chaos are likely to go insane looking for repeating patterns in the future. The stock market is chaos and not predictable.. the only ones that win long term are ones with an edge with inside information. Without inside info a random walk will result in as much or greator profit because of dismiss expectancy of trades and fall into habits of trading with fear and greed. The same can be applied to anything organic including companies and even entire cities.

[iamnotback]

Agree mostly and id like to add that people thinking theres order within chaos are likely to go insane looking for repeating patterns in the future.

Don't conflate repeating cycles (e.g. the Sun rising every morning) with the diversity in the details (which bug is saluting the sun each morning on which blade of grass).

Armstrong's methods are valid because he isn't trying to predict the details. He has identified the order in chaos due to for example the frequency of our lifespans and our age of maturity.

[r0ach]

Sidjuhag, with the stuff you're saying you're essentially citing efficient market hypothesis, which is a total crock of shit that says the equivalent of - it's not possible for anyone to make a living in stocks because it's all like a coin flip.  There's plenty of people to contradict that view and they all weren't from sheer luck or insider information.

[sidhujag]

Sidjuhag, with the stuff you're saying you're essentially citing efficient market hypothesis, which is a total crock of shit that says the equivalent of - it's not possible for anyone to make a living in stocks because it's all like a coin flip.  There's plenty of people to contradict that view and they all weren't from sheer luck or insider information.

But those that have done it for over 20 yrs have an edge through information. Again what im saying is that a random walk would be just as efficient. In general even if someone has information which gives 1 percent edge to give you 51 percent chance of.winning after spread it is enough to make a living. Those that can conquer their inner selves are doing so.. those with more inside information about positions are making more money. Those without any information dont make it in the long run when spread catches up to them

[sidhujag]

Agree mostly and id like to add that people thinking theres order within chaos are likely to go insane looking for repeating patterns in the future.

Don't conflate repeating cycles (e.g. the Sun rising every morning) with the diversity in the details (which bug is saluting the sun each morning on which blade of grass).

Armstrong's methods are valid because he isn't trying to predict the details. He has identified the order in chaos due to for example the frequency of our lifespans and our age of maturity.

Then the same can be applied to astro cycles and hand reading.. there are patterns there aswell.. actually i follow a financial astrologist and he does make accurate medium term predictions i have been following him for a few yrs perhaps it gives him an edge.. but not everything you conclude from data extrapolating into future will be right.. that is not possible.. perhaps a minority of predictions come true enough such that if you are a betting man and use some sensible MM you would be +ve that much i will give you.. some higher order can help look at details.. but by hanging by his every word is just wrong