Martin Armstrong Discussion

[trollercoaster]

Drug resistant fungis : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/03/10/deadly-fungal-infection-that-doctors-have-been-fearing-now-reported-in-u-s/?utm_term=.1156dd9e7f5b

[iamnotback]

But that doesn't contradict what I aim at.  You can have "millennials-gamer-coin" if you want to.  They can exchange it for "your-town-grocery-coin" if they need groceries.

It doesn't work that way due to the costs of foreign unit-of-accounts, only one will win.

If the NWO fiat debt usury industrial age coin wins, you die in a totalitarian dark age.

[iamnotback]

Drug resistant fungis : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/03/10/deadly-fungal-infection-that-doctors-have-been-fearing-now-reported-in-u-s/?utm_term=.1156dd9e7f5b

The next pandemic (2019ish) will be super-bug multi-drug resistant pathogens.

The one you reported has the key attributes (kills 60%, survives for months on skin and weeks on bed posts). OMG!  

[r0ach]

Gold does not top cryptocurrency in any of the bolded properties, its unlimited supply that can be mined at random and thus value becomes random aswell

Lol, yet it's probable bitcoin will have to become inflationary to have any form of convergence, which I think you even agree on, yet you still claim bitcoin is finite.  Also, the earth is mostly a closed ecosystem, so gold is relatively finite in that regard.  Hence your claim is sort of the inverse of reality.  And no, I don't consider asteroid mining making earth an open ecosystem when cost of production is infinitely higher.

And my comment on the bitcoin ETF decision:

I actually agree with the ETF decision for a few reasons.  Bitcoin has no transaction finality or even eventual consistency since technically the entire chain can be re-written, and in order to make any claim of being decentralized (unlike Vitalikcoin), that's the way it has to be designed; so bitcoin does not, and probably never will, fit into any existing legal system.

[r0ach]

Personally I think silver will do the worst of the three over the short run but it has some serious medium term potential.

The price of silver right now is the same inflation adjusted price it was 100 years ago.  The inflation adjusted price of gold is 3x higher, not to mention silver supplies have been rapidly depleting through industry while blocks of gold just keep stacking higher.  Both metals are in an inverse bubble, but silver is far more undervalued and will see larger gains than gold does.  The enormous market cap gold already has makes it almost impossible to outdo silver gains.  It's like comparing altcoin vs bitcoin price movements.

[iamnotback]

At least I made 1.5 BTC, USDT was good enough to get the job done without a poloniex verified account. I wish I risked more but oh well.

If Poloniex gets hacked, BTC is going to crater again. More likely to happen at the $2000+ level if one presumes hacking exchanges is not just random and is the way big interests fight each other.

I have devised a technology that can eliminate the possibility for hacking exchanges, by keeping the control over the private key always with the owner of the tokens and employing a new variant of a payment channel I devised so the trades with the exchange can be executed autonomously and instantly without needing to wait for the blockchain.

So then all we need to do is get the exchange to adopt this technology but I expect they will be unwilling to do it, because I think the exchanges love trading with our tokens and love the ability to hack themselves and steal our tokens.

So therefor, I think the community is going to need to be ready to create a new exchange at some point in the future. Somebody should take advantage of this opportunity, because the investors will likely move to an exchange that provides this improvement in security. I can't do everything by myself. I don't want to create and run an exchange.

If you've wanted to compete with Poloniex and have the best exchange, maybe this will be your opportunity. If Poloniex will embrace the technology, then I will be pleasantly surprised.

I am going to be providing many opportunities for we the community to take back control and earn money in the process of advancing our individual power. That is one of my motivations and it ties back into why I think I can inspire people. (assuming my cognitive health will return to 100% so that I can fulfill my obligations/plans)

I admire those creative guys who make these Bruce Wanker videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7yVyIPATWc

[iamnotback]

OMG, silver is money again! 

[sidhujag]

Gold does not top cryptocurrency in any of the bolded properties, its unlimited supply that can be mined at random and thus value becomes random aswell

Lol, yet it's probable bitcoin will have to become inflationary to have any form of convergence, which I think you even agree on, yet you still claim bitcoin is finite.  Also, the earth is mostly a closed ecosystem, so gold is relatively finite in that regard.  Hence your claim is sort of the inverse of reality.  And no, I don't consider asteroid mining making earth an open ecosystem when cost of production is infinitely higher.

And my comment on the bitcoin ETF decision:

I actually agree with the ETF decision for a few reasons.  Bitcoin has no transaction finality or even eventual consistency since technically the entire chain can be re-written, and in order to make any claim of being decentralized (unlike Vitalikcoin), that's the way it has to be designed; so bitcoin does not, and probably never will, fit into any existing legal system.

Its to be seen if a crypto that adjusts based on a gdp type metric is enough to overthrow first to market network effect

[r0ach]

Roach read http://unenumerated.blogspot.ca/2016/02/two-malthusian-scares.html?m=1#links

We are in the offloading gold stage by elite.. oil producers are buying by converting from oil.. malthusian event is over and commodities are set to collapse lagging behind gold. Now where oh where the heck is smart money going to start putting their money over the next decade in anticipation of industrial usage actually catching up and producing the next malthusian event? Hint its sure as hell not back into gold.. as that would not.be very smart

You guys should probably stop trying to invent meaningless buzz words like "knowledge age" and do actual fundamentals.  We are entering a time period of peak detrimental counter party risk and gold and silver are the only two reliable "cash is king", liquid monetary instruments to avoid that.  Sure, you can buy a fucking house or something instead to try and avoid counter party risk, but the prices will crater since they're in an enormous bubble, plus you'll be the first target to be fiscally raped by govt tax wise.  The possesion is 9/10ths of the law rule is in play here, and there are not many liquid assets to utilize that concept besides gold and silver.

Bitcoin is a currency, not money, and it doesn't even remove counter party risk.  Bitcoin is full of counter party risk and even relatively dumb traders like MatTheCat figured this fact out, so please don't insult my intelligence and tell me bitcoin is counter party risk free.

[sidhujag]

Roach read http://unenumerated.blogspot.ca/2016/02/two-malthusian-scares.html?m=1#links

We are in the offloading gold stage by elite.. oil producers are buying by converting from oil.. malthusian event is over and commodities are set to collapse lagging behind gold. Now where oh where the heck is smart money going to start putting their money over the next decade in anticipation of industrial usage actually catching up and producing the next malthusian event? Hint its sure as hell not back into gold.. as that would not.be very smart

You guys should probably stop trying to invent jibberish buzz words like "knowledge age" and do actual fundamentals.  We are entering a time period of peak detrimental counter party risk and gold and silver are the only two reliable "cash is king", liquid monetary instruments to avoid that.  Sure, you can buy a fucking house or something instead to try and avoid counter party risk, but the prices will crater since they're in an enormous bubble, plus you'll be the first target to be fiscally raped by govt tax wise.  The possesion is 9/10ths of the law rule is in play here, and there are not many liquid assets to utilize that concept besides gold and silver.

Bitcoin is a currency, not money, and it doesn't even remove counter party risk.  Bitcoin is full of counter party risk and even relatively dumb traders like MatTheCat figured this fact out, so please don't insult my intelligence and tell me bitcoin is counter party risk free.

You read the article? What happened between the 2 mathusian events to gold?

There is no mention of bitcoin in it btw its a derived conclusion based on facts presented to us

[r0ach]

You read the article?

Szabo doesn't make any sense here:

Any commodity that can be stored and so traded can be used as store of value that will render the owner immune from the perceived or actual risks of holding a floating currency.

First of all, just about every currency is a "floating currency" unless the entire supply has been entirely mined from the closed ecosystem and you no longer have to worry about cost of production affecting value.  But even then, you're still governed by people's sentiment for how much they value that object to trade their goods and services for vs bartering with something else.  Everything about the currency is going to be floating in one way or another.

Secondly, bitcoin having a potentially wildly floating cost of production is one of it's greatest weaknesses and one reason it's not a store of value.  A wildly volatile to the downside cost of production is a black swan event in itself and would render confidence in that asset to nothingness.  If we lived in an open ecosystem, which anyone who claims we will be mining asteroids for metals does, then the cost of production and it's ability to not plummet is the main factor that makes gold a store of value at all.  If you live in a closed ecosystem it's not that big of a factor since you're bound by supply.

As for bitcoin, the fact that mining NEVER ENDS is exactly the equivalent of using gold as money while being in an open ecosystem.  If cost of production craters, you're screwed.  This can happen in bitcoin easily.  The act of previous holders just hoarding their money and refusing to sell low doesn't help because the network is officially dead in the first place if there's no mining fees to siphon off at this new lower cost of production, so the fresh lower cost of production coins drag everything else down with it.

[tabnloz]

Roach read http://unenumerated.blogspot.ca/2016/02/two-malthusian-scares.html?m=1#links

We are in the offloading gold stage by elite.. oil producers are buying by converting from oil.. malthusian event is over and commodities are set to collapse lagging behind gold. Now where oh where the heck is smart money going to start putting their money over the next decade in anticipation of industrial usage actually catching up and producing the next malthusian event? Hint its sure as hell not back into gold.. as that would not.be very smart

You guys should probably stop trying to invent jibberish buzz words like "knowledge age" and do actual fundamentals.  We are entering a time period of peak detrimental counter party risk and gold and silver are the only two reliable "cash is king", liquid monetary instruments to avoid that.  Sure, you can buy a fucking house or something instead to try and avoid counter party risk, but the prices will crater since they're in an enormous bubble, plus you'll be the first target to be fiscally raped by govt tax wise.  The possesion is 9/10ths of the law rule is in play here, and there are not many liquid assets to utilize that concept besides gold and silver.

Bitcoin is a currency, not money, and it doesn't even remove counter party risk.  Bitcoin is full of counter party risk and even relatively dumb traders like MatTheCat figured this fact out, so please don't insult my intelligence and tell me bitcoin is counter party risk free.

You read the article? What happened between the 2 mathusian events to gold?

There is no mention of bitcoin in it btw its a derived conclusion based on facts presented to us

Great article, looking forward to see how this pans out & where / if bitcoin becomes a part of the story.

From another book I read (Griftopia) it was the run up in prices of wheat / corn etc post 2008 that was a main factor leading to the Arab Spring. Funny how one action inadvertently leads to another.

iirc many of the banks piled into Corn, a market which at the time only had a mechanism to push prices higher (have forgotten the exact details).

[r0ach]

Great article

I don't think it was a good article at all.  He doesn't seem to know that peak conventional crude oil occurred in 2004 and that more expensive and lower return on investment alternatives were substituted in it's place.  He also doesn't seem to know much about EROEI (energy return on energy invested) and kind of completely brushes off how cost of production factors into markets as I explained in my post about bitcoin above.

[OROBTC]

...

Bitcoin IS full of counter-party risk.  blockchain.info had some kind of a weird problem some three (?) years ago, and I had all of my BTC stolen from the account (despite their propaganda saying that I held the Keys, etc., etc.).  And should you want to SPEND your Bitcoin, ah, there's another risk, you have to find someone who will take it for what you want, in my case I bought gold a few times with BTC.  In retrospect, perhaps not a wise decision, but I learned how to make purchases with BTC.

Extreme price variation and complexity of its use make it too challenging for most newbs.  And the merchant base (people who will take BTC in payment) is still way too small.

*  *  *

I am very wary of Peak Oil claims.  The USA is now on the verge of exporting more oil than we ever have before.  Yes, I read all that about EROEI (esp. SRSrocco, ol' Steve there).

But, solar seems to be becoming much more efficient than before.  Should solar's cost continue to decline (and I have no idea), then our electricity problems will be mostly solved.  The USA has lots of NatGas as well.  As does Peru.  As do lots of other countries.  And if oil climbs back to $100 / bbl, then moar becomes worth recovering.

I am not saying that Peak Oil is not a problem, I am just saying that there are a LOT of annoying facts out there that invite careful examination and longer-term study.

[sidhujag]

You read the article?

Szabo doesn't make any sense here:

Any commodity that can be stored and so traded can be used as store of value that will render the owner immune from the perceived or actual risks of holding a floating currency.

First of all, just about every currency is a "floating currency" unless the entire supply has been entirely mined from the closed ecosystem and you no longer have to worry about cost of production affecting value.  But even then, you're still governed by people's sentiment for how much they value that object to trade their goods and services for vs bartering with something else.  Everything about the currency is going to be floating in one way or another.

Secondly, bitcoin having a potentially wildly floating cost of production is one of it's greatest weaknesses and one reason it's not a store of value.  A wildly volatile to the downside cost of production is a black swan event in itself and would render confidence in that asset to nothingness.  If we lived in an open ecosystem, which anyone who claims we will be mining asteroids for metals does, then the cost of production and it's ability to not plummet is the main factor that makes gold a store of value at all.  If you live in a closed ecosystem it's not that big of a factor since you're bound by supply.

As for bitcoin, the fact that mining NEVER ENDS is exactly the equivalent of using gold as money while being in an open ecosystem.  If cost of production craters, you're screwed.  This can happen in bitcoin easily.  The act of previous holders just hoarding their money and refusing to sell low doesn't help because the network is officially dead in the first place if there's no mining fees to siphon off at this new lower cost of production, so the fresh lower cost of production coins drag everything else down with it.

Your first paragraph tells me you cherry picked some statement and stopped there.. or you are incapable of understanding what he wrote. Commodities and fiat currencies are thougjt of as fundamentally different stores of.value concepts since gold standard was dropped as dipicted by 2 telltale events.

Bitcoins cost of production is rising exponentially and thus.if thought of as a commodity its store of value also should rise with it.. if.thought of as money it has higher utility than its predecesors and thus more valuable either way. I will trust in math all.day long over trusting central banks or having to lugg around tons of precious metal that will be stolen if shtf and bitcoin wasnt around.

Now show.me besides asics when  cost of production shifted enough to make noise to the downside? That is the point to create energy more efficiently.by linking incentive via block reward. Its a direct metric for stability as if a new way to form emergy is dicovered they will be rewarded but society benefits the most.. it classifies as a form or ideal money and multiple times better than gold ever will. Afterall doesnt it all boil down to.energy anyway?

[sidhujag]

...

Bitcoin IS full of counter-party risk.  blockchain.info had some kind of a weird problem some three (?) years ago, and I had all of my BTC stolen from the account (despite their propaganda saying that I held the Keys, etc., etc.).  And should you want to SPEND your Bitcoin, ah, there's another risk, you have to find someone who will take it for what you want, in my case I bought gold a few times with BTC.  In retrospect, perhaps not a wise decision, but I learned how to make purchases with BTC.

Extreme price variation and complexity of its use make it too challenging for most newbs.  And the merchant base (people who will take BTC in payment) is still way too small.

*  *  *

I am very wary of Peak Oil claims.  The USA is now on the verge of exporting more oil than we ever have before.  Yes, I read all that about EROEI (esp. SRSrocco, ol' Steve there).

But, solar seems to be becoming much more efficient than before.  Should solar's cost continue to decline (and I have no idea), then our electricity problems will be mostly solved.  The USA has lots of NatGas as well.  As does Peru.  As do lots of other countries.  And if oil climbs back to $100 / bbl, then moar becomes worth recovering.

I am not saying that Peak Oil is not a problem, I am just saying that there are a LOT of annoying facts out there that invite careful examination and longer-term study.

Noone told you to give your keys to anyone.. thats not a problem with the protocol

[iamnotback]

@r0ach has a point about talking versus doing:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.msg18154194#msg18154194

[r0ach]

My response to people who believe cost of production doesn't matter in bitcoin:

cost of production has very little effect on price

You're acting like bitcoin has a finite supply.  In theory it does, but not in practice since transaction fees are recycled and mining continues FOREVER.  It's the equivalent of if platinum costs $1000 an ounce to mine at some point but people are recycling old cars and getting it for $100 an ounce.  The lowest available price is the only one that matters.  It doesn't matter if the cost of production was $1 million for a coin at some point.  It's an open entropy system so if the cost of production goes to zero, people simply plug into the system and mine those recycled coins for free rather than paying you $1 million.  

If there are no recycled fees to mine, it means the system was already dead in the first place.  The act of making fees recycle is the equivalent of infinite supply when a bitcoin is an arbitrary unit in the first place, just with the store of value aspect of that supply resting on cost of production instead of scarcity.  Each halving doubles cost of production, which enables you to increase price or lower mining input.  If you run out of halvings and then lower cost of production, you should have a corresponding effect to devalue other already existing coins.  Do you see now why cost of production actually does matter?

Most people with an IQ of 70 that don't know their head from a hole in the ground call bitcoin a ponzi but have no idea how it even works, yet if you really do understand how it works, it actually does resemble somewhat of a ponzi where arbitrary dates are inserted and proclaimed that on this date, the price must rise if mining input stays the same.  If that's not a "scheme" of some type, then I don't know what is.

[OROBTC]

...

sidhujag

Sigh, I guess I was not clear.  The BTC was taken from my account even though I "owned" the keys, and I never sent them to anyone.  I did get my BTC back from blockchain.info (after some back & forth with them).  So, they made me good again (gave me BTC to make up for what disappeared), but I never got the details on what happened, why the BTC disappeared.

I still have all my communications with them in resolving the problem.  If I had given away my keys (or the 12 words), then it would have clearly been my fault, and they would not have paid me back.

[iamnotback]

OROBTC, if you held your private keys, then your BTC could never be taken, except by hacking where you stored them (since it is presumed to be cryptographically intractable to break a private key). The fact it was taken means you were not holding the private keys (or your place of hiding them was hacked). You may have been holding a proxy for the keys or you held a shared copy (i.e. not private) of the keys. It behooves you to understand the distinction.


If you hold the private keys on a metal version of a paper wallet. The only way to lose those BTC is if someone gains physical access to that metal wallet (or hacks your computer when you type the key into a wallet to sign with).