Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

i have to agree with Mat, this is a rather obvious sell signal, i think the only question is how low will it go, and how long it will stay low.
I'm thinking 390-360 is a buy and > 400 is a sell, for now anyway...
I wouldn't be surprised to see 333$ again, my lines say 333$ is the floor of this bull trend, but i won't hold my breath waiting to hit the floor. ( i fully expect the trend to hold )

i'll also point out a bearish pattern in the short term.

my guess is we're ready for another drop right about now.


and here is how i come to 333$ for my floor.

[Afrikoin]

 Switzerland signs deal to end banking secrecy

By John Manning

http://internationalbanker.com/banking/switzerland-signs-deal-to-end-banking-secrecy/

[ssmc2]

Switzerland signs deal to end banking secrecy

By John Manning

http://internationalbanker.com/banking/switzerland-signs-deal-to-end-banking-secrecy/

That's a lot of money that will be looking for alternative solutions for wealth storage

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

Switzerland signs deal to end banking secrecy

By John Manning

http://internationalbanker.com/banking/switzerland-signs-deal-to-end-banking-secrecy/

That's a lot of money that will be looking for alternative solutions for wealth storage

my thoughts exactly! in the trillions

[Afrikoin]

Switzerland signs deal to end banking secrecy

By John Manning

http://internationalbanker.com/banking/switzerland-signs-deal-to-end-banking-secrecy/

That's a lot of money that will be looking for alternative solutions for wealth storage

my thoughts exactly! in the trillions

The billionaires of the world aren't stupid enough to trust any one haven whether it's Costa Rica, Belize, Switzerland, or St. Kitts and Nevis. They put a few million in one corporate bank account in one country and then a few million in another corporate bank account in another country. As long as at least one jurisdiction is left standing, then they stay rich. They expect havens to fail every now and then just like bitcoiners expect exchanges to fail every now and then. The opportunity is not for crypto to take over the world's offshore game but just to be considered yet another safe haven to diversify into.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3z5i9i/switzerland_signs_deal_to_end_banking_secrecy/cyjmefw

[Afrikoin]

 Hyperbitcoinization
Daniel Krawisz
March 29, 2014

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/#selection-7.6-17.25

[Afrikoin]

Shots Fired!

Reality Check by Tim Swanson

Actual Title: A proxy for users

http://www.ofnumbers.com/2016/01/03/a-proxy-for-users/

[Afrikoin]

Strong buy and sell signals on the simple moving average (12h):

The latest uptrend was from ~325 (open) till ~450 (close); +38%.



The selling is going slower than what I initially expected.
However, I am confident that we will see lower prices again.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $426.42)

[Afrikoin]

I get puzzled by numerous comments I have seen here and on other threads stating that nothing happened on the last halving!!!! My memory was that bitcoin went wildly bullish during the last halving. In order to remind myself which version is right and satisfy my curiosity I decided to look it up.

The last halving was on 28th Nov 2012 when block reward halved from 50 btc to 25 btc
http://www.prlog.org/12032578-bitcoin-community-celebrates-halving-day.html

I've marked that event on this chart with this orange vertical line


edit: Improved chart

OK it didnt go boom and do a price doubling on that exact day but really look at the price how it was rising to unfathomable new highs just afterwards.

This looks like a massive speculative bubble followed by correction and only eventually after a long time true price starting to be known.

I think next halving is not priced in but again most likely there will be a huge speculative bubble.

Litecoin was similar recently except the speculative bubble was sooner.

My conclusion is that we are likely on the cusp of another huge speculative bubble. Only much later after bubble has deflated will new bitcoin supply be truely priced in.
 

[Afrikoin]

For Kyle Bass This Is "The Greatest Investment Opportunity Right Now"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-04/kyle-bass-greatest-investment-opportunity-right-now

[Afrikoin]

Similar to my earlier post, might as well look at the recent litecoin halving too

Litecoin had its first halving on 25 August 2015
https://www.coingecko.com/buzz/litecoin-first-block-reward-halving

Marked here with this orange vertical line on a chart of litecoin versus US$



This is quite different to the first bitcoin halving but in both cases there has been what looks like a large speculative bubble followed by higher price afterwards.

In Litecoin's halving the bubble peaked before the actual halving date and was not enough to approach all time highs in litecoin. Although litecoin normally has its own all time highs roughly in sync with bitcoins movements, this halving occuring at a time when litecoin was already at a very depressed price and bitcoin is still well below its own all time high.

But the essence of my idea remains that the halving may induce a bubble as part of the price discovery mechanism.

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

Thankfully Berkshire Hathaway stock has already given us a great example of exactly how an asset can go from being worth $14 each to over $200,000 each throughout the course of several decades. 
 
 
 
It's conceivable that Bitcoin could make the very same journey, and might even make it faster. 
 
Here's that same chart in linear format.  If it looks familiar, that's because it heavily resembles Bitcoin's own violent and exponential movements upward, followed by subsequent periods of consolidation. 
 

 

yeah ok it's possible, but look at the time frame, that stock required 50 years to achieve that result, and in the last 3 years the value just doubled

so bitcoin need tiem for that, in the next halving you can expect a 2x value as a stable one with some major peak

You are not considering the exponential acceleration of technological results (and Bitcoin being a medium of that acceleration).  You are also not considering that BRK was primarily an American asset which most of humanity could not partake in.  Bitcoin's ascent will be much more rapid. 
 
Consider that it took 20 years for BRK to go from inception to $400. 
 
Bitcoin did that in six. 
 
So, at our current velocity, you can safely assume that every decade on this chart represents a three year period.. Hold onto your butts. 

[Afrikoin]

This correction theory looks legit. Maybe not now when everyone (almost) believes we're on the verge of next bull run.

I mean, look at it - 5 waves down always. Fractals within fractals

[Afrikoin]

RBS tells investors: 'Sell everything'

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/rbs-tells-investors-sell-everything-20160111-gm3ssa.html

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin Price Report 01/11/2016

https://bitcoinaverage.com/blog/bitcoin-price-report-01-11-2016

[Afrikoin]

Once again, BTC is moved by the Chinese exchanges, with OKCoin registering a whopping 750K BTC volume on the 4hr break out candle. However, lets zoom in a little:





Seems that 93% of that volume, occurred with Bitcoin still in it's 'rangebound' state, between 2800 CNY and 2830 CNY. Note also, that market structure was bearish on the run up to the break out. Anyone who has traded on the CNY exchanges, will be familar with 500 or so CNY walls, lying +/- 10 CNY of spot, only for a handful of orders for several hundred of BTC to appear and be executed just as quickly, totalling perhaps 3K BTC in volume, but for spot price to stay within a 5 CNY range. When this happens, this is basically 'Front Running' trades, where some trader, or perhaps the exchange itself, sells large sums of Bitcoins to himself, so quickly, that normal traders don't get access to the trade orders. This is what basically happened here. It is called 'Painting the Tape, it is highly manipulative, and also highly illegal in regulated markets'. The charts give the impression of HUGE interest in BTC at the 2800-2830 CNY price range, and the 'bullish breakout' occurs, with around 6% of the total break out volume, accounting for over 75% of the move up.

This market, is basically a bitch to those who are behind the big Chinese exchanges. It is so obviously, manipulated and corrupt, but it don't matter, the USD exchanges follow suit everytime, and real fortunes are won and lost.

I cannot agree more! This is what my volume indicator caught
Disregard the rest of the fake volume and focus on the red indicator at the bottom. My indicator (BADV) goes positive when there is more buying at market than selling (There are some other calculations in there, but that is the gist). It goes negative when more selling. BADV plummets during the rise, which means there was net selling during that candle. The gray vertical line is just there to show that one bar earlier, BADV was making a peak.


Only in china can the price rise on sell volume.

[spazzdla]

Not sure if you're implying a crash or rally :O

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin — the ship needs a new captain.

https://medium.com/@adriancole/bitcoin-the-ship-needs-a-new-captain-b285b70aef8d#.i3siivied