Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[nanobrain]

Some useful links, thanks to all the posters above.

Refreshing after all the blowhards blowing hard in the other threads.

I'm still sticking to my feeling (some moths/pages back) that we will see a retrace back to 380s - I certainly think all this halving hype is going to be the usual BTC damp squib.  Happy to be proved wrong though.

[1714181810]

1714181810

[1714181810]

1714181810

[1714181810]

1714181810

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

"A little chart I put together in honor of the ol' bubble watch days. It's based on the 235 day cycle /u/lowstrife noticed. Everything is priced in terms of our current run that started at the peak of the last bubble, on November 4th. I used the Coindesk Closing Price so it doesn't have the very peaks of the bubbles factored in, unless it happened to close at that price. You'll notice that around 235 days after the peak of every bubble, the price tends to reach another "local" high point. Doesn't mean it will happen again, but the next 235 day point is June 26th, and the halving is around July 4th, so there's that. We started out tracking the end of 2012 and early 2013 very closely, although it started a nice rise earlier than this current run"

from https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4eehaf/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_12_2016/d1zg0i9

[Afrikoin]

The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning 

[Afrikoin]

Mat are you trying to lose money?  This isn't a fake wall on Cornbase.  It will not be pulled.  The new floor is $440.  It doesn't matter what all this jibberish you're talking is when people can just decide what levels to support.  Shorters already paid for this price increase for us, now we're staging to break the triple top from months ago.

[Afrikoin]

MatAndCat Pictures

It likely means miners stopped selling, so welcome to 90 days of enormous supply crunch.  The volume will be turned on when we reach a level where some random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving, which is not going to be below $500 by anyone's standards.  Then the long, drawn out game starts of people trying to sell high, buy lower, or short, with others trying to squeeze or lock out sellers and forcing them to buy back in.  Then we get the volatility that can do just about anything except go below the first double bottom after volume kicks in...another asymmetric trade.

[Tzupy]

The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning 

No, it's not similar at all with September 2013. This is just a another permabull wet dream.
If it were similar, there would be new Chinese exchanges opening soon and Willy buying with fake fiat on MtGox equivalent.
What rpietila says is a rally to about 3k$ in 2 months, like 450$ * 8x (from September to November 2013), while a reasonably bullish
scenario is ~800$ in 2 months, then a sharp correction, and possibly a bear market, if lack of fresh fiat / bad news / etc.

[Afrikoin]

The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning 

No, it's not similar at all with September 2013. This is just a another permabull wet dream.
If it were similar, there would be new Chinese exchanges opening soon and Willy buying with fake fiat on MtGox equivalent.
What rpietila says is a rally to about 3k$ in 2 months, like 450$ * 8x (from September to November 2013), while a reasonably bullish
scenario is ~800$ in 2 months, then a sharp correction, and possibly a bear market, if lack of fresh fiat / bad news / etc.

I with you (highlighted). I think traders expecting another rally to unprecedented highs are delusional and will get caught out if (when) we hit a high and head back down. Its part of the characteristics of wave B.

I'm expecting at least $650 and open to reach $1000, but doubt this is the big mega bubble wave some are suggesting.

My opinion though,could be wong.

Meanwhile, Tzupy, does this mean you are bullish?

[Gillette]

By the way, why your thread is moderated?

[Tzupy]

...
I with you (highlighted). I think traders expecting another rally to unprecedented highs are delusional and will get caught out if (when) we hit a high and head back down. Its part of the characteristics of wave B.

I'm expecting at least $650 and open to reach $1000, but doubt this is the big mega bubble wave some are suggesting.

My opinion though,could be wong.

Meanwhile, Tzupy, does this mean you are bullish?

The evolution of the bid sum on Huobi for the last 30 days suggests an upcoming pump.

I am moderately bullish, but I try to keep an eye on Chinese whale manipulation. Closed my long yesterday at 452$ and now looking for a new entry.
If the market will reach at least ~480$ and then find support at ~450$, the ~800$ scenario will become probable.
If we go slow up, fail to make a significantly higher high, and then break support at 450$, then IMO we'll test 300$.

[Fakhoury]

By the way, why your thread is moderated?

I'm the one who notified Afrikon about this.

The thread is gem, and I hate polluting it with so bearish BS and trolls, so in order to have a balanced content, I advised Afrikon to moderate the thread.

The same reason for moderating my thread.

[Afrikoin]

its coming... just walked around.

Nice! Even if he doesn't reopen this officially, just that statement alone reemphasizes his previous analysis from last year on the Historical III. That being said, just scrolling through his analysis from last year does make me miss his updates.

I decline to analze this. The multi year Great 3 has been started.

I have never saw so bullish Lucif. Looks like he has sold his account.

Historical III on the way. I waited it since 2011.

masterluc thank you so much for your advice and your estimates. What is your price estimate for this moon discovery? And at timeframe do you estimate that the rocket will land?

I expect bubble series in coming years. The first one starts now. First bubble target should be lower than ATH.

Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?

Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years.

[Afrikoin]

Triangle?

Fractal within a larger pattern?

[nanobrain]

Triangle?

Fractal within a larger pattern?

The more you look at something the more patterns you see.

Saying that the SAR on the Weekly Stamp and BTCe charts has flipped to support, which is bullish.
But the market is being lead by Stamp and Finex on very low volume.

Its gonna go up...or down.

[Afrikoin]

Triangle?

Fractal within a larger pattern?

The more you look at something the more patterns you see.

Saying that the SAR on the Weekly Stamp and BTCe charts has flipped to support, which is bullish.
But the market is being lead by Stamp and Finex on very low volume.

Its gonna go up...or down.

Yes, volumes. Everyone keeps bringing that up. I posted some thoughts on volumes from another thread. Seemed like reasonable explanations. ALso,low volume is a characteristic of wave 4, (if this turns out to be one).

Patterns within patterns are fractals. This looks like a pattern forming for a break out on a small timeframe

[Afrikoin]

Gold Price Round Up (Apr 23)

http://blog.vaultoro.com/2016/04/23/gold-price-round-up-apr-23/

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

from https://whaleclub.co/i/XNRb52

[Afrikoin]

How 420,000 might be bitcoin’s magic number

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-420000-might-bitcoins-magic-number-daniel-masters