rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

This one is still cheap, perhaps the single best (most negative beta) hedge to a "traditional portfolio"

[macsga]

This one is still cheap, perhaps the single best (most negative beta) hedge to a "traditional portfolio"

Oh, but I do... my awful trading skills brought me lower than my original 5-digit position, but oh well...

[molecular]

This one is still cheap, perhaps the single best (most negative beta) hedge to a "traditional portfolio"

I wonder why XMR hasn't profited yet from the outflow of BTC to alts... any explanation?

[BldSwtTrs]

This one is still cheap, perhaps the single best (most negative beta) hedge to a "traditional portfolio"

I wonder why XMR hasn't profited yet from the outflow of BTC to alts... any explanation?

It doubled over last month.

[birr]

This one is still cheap, perhaps the single best (most negative beta) hedge to a "traditional portfolio"

The draft needs to go through the hands of a proofreader.
I used to proofread legal and financial documents for a living, and I was shocked when I read this thing.  The current draft isn't fit to see the light of day.
Risto, I see in another thread that you suggest using your Monero value proposition document as a pitching tool.  Anyone contemplating doing so really should go through it beforehand to correct the many glaring errors, for example
Monero’s total market valuation should compare to the other asses mentioned above.

[molecular]

This one is still cheap, perhaps the single best (most negative beta) hedge to a "traditional portfolio"

I wonder why XMR hasn't profited yet from the outflow of BTC to alts... any explanation?

It doubled over last month.

I stand corrected. Didn't look correctly (or at all). Just saw: hmm, it's still at the price I got in, so it hasn't moved... pretty stupid of me

[aminorex]

This one is still cheap, perhaps the single best (most negative beta) hedge to a "traditional portfolio"

I wonder why XMR hasn't profited yet from the outflow of BTC to alts... any explanation?

It doubled over last month.

I stand corrected. Didn't look correctly (or at all). Just saw: hmm, it's still at the price I got in, so it hasn't moved... pretty stupid of me

That's why, even if you don't want to trade, you should at least cost-average, in a disciplined manner.

[molecular]

That's why, even if you don't want to trade, you should at least cost-average, in a disciplined manner.

I think I will need some software to do that for me.

[Bios Optimus]

we can fuel the rocket without rpietila!!!

[rpietila]

we can fuel the rocket without rpietila!!!

  how many of the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme song (March-2013) featured stars are still active in the forums?

[Bios Optimus]

we can fuel the rocket without rpietila!!!

  how many of the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme song (March-2013) featured stars are still active in the forums?

Yeah man I wish you were still keep this thread going I really enjoyed it.  So if it starts to run up again are you going to post more on here?

[JayJuanGee]

we can fuel the rocket without rpietila!!!

  how many of the "bitcoin is a bubble" theme song (March-2013) featured stars are still active in the forums?

Yeah man I wish you were still keep this thread going I really enjoyed it.  So if it starts to run up again are you going to post more on here?

hahahahaha


He will post about martians, his dreams and various other at the moment off topics in order to bring us "quality TA"  or maybe, Monero, as an alternative "quality" topic?

 

[rpietila]

The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning 

[r0ach]

Similar to what I said earlier today:

My commentary on current BTC volume:

It likely means miners stopped selling, so welcome to 90 days of enormous supply crunch.  The volume will be turned on when we reach a level where some random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving, which is not going to be below $500 by anyone's standards.  Then the long, drawn out game starts of people trying to sell high, buy lower, or short, with others trying to squeeze or lock out sellers and forcing them to buy back in.  Then we get the volatility that can do just about anything except go below the first double bottom after volume kicks in...another asymmetric trade.

[rpietila]

Similar to what I said earlier today:

random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving

Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.

And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.

[Hunyadi]

Excellent post by Risto! It's starting to feel like old times 

[r0ach]

Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.

And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.

I meant the price will rise from supply being dried up until some guy sitting on a bunch of coins thinks the market is overextended.  He will then sell in hopes of buying back cheaper, then the volume and volatility starts.  I didn't mean the guy wanted to dump for no reason.  Only a fool would want to sell and walk away right now.

[rpietila]

Low volume means that random guys owning lots of coins that they are willing to sell in this price domain (anything less than a few thousand$ per BTC) is drying up. We've been here for so long, if anyone wished to sell, he had plenty of time to do so.

And for sure, the random guys are not a renewable. We had a lot of them, but tell me how many exist any more! Not so many.

I meant the price will rise from supply being dried up until some guy sitting on a bunch of coins thinks the market is overextended.  He will then sell in hopes of buying back cheaper, then the volume and volatility starts.  I didn't mean the guy wanted to dump for no reason.  Only a fool would want to sell and walk away right now.

We have had plenty of fools in the last years but the function of market is towards weeding them out. (A rare natural example of decreasing entropy in a system).

My overall philosophy on the signs of the rises:
(has to be taken in the context of investments with the parameters similar to cryptocoins)

Quick rise on high volume - GOOD - Brisk new demand and coins change hands

Quick rise on low volume - BAD - Most of the issue in few hands = overhang risk, liquidity risk, possible scam

Slow rise on high volume - BAD - If a high volume causes only slow rise, it is a toppish sign (unless just emerging from a bottom; then good)

Slow rise on low volume - GOOD - Supply drying up, possibility that the trading range will soon be contested leading to a massive revaluation

[Zarathustra]

The situation with Bitcoin/USD seems remarkably similar to the one in late September 2013. A quick and violent runup is a few months old, and the price is nearing the levels where it collapsed (in this time I am referring to the $500 top last year, not to the ATH).

Volume is down, yet price is eking upwards. This is a very bullish sign. It tells that the supply is exhausted and buyers are trying to not fall upon each other. It can turn explosive (see Oct-2013) literally any day from now with all the symptoms of FOMO appearing in a few weeks, the ones that have been absent for "so long".

By "explosive", I don't mean $600 in 4 weeks, I mean something like $multiplethousands in 2 months, and in a less explosive version the peak would be higher and time a little longer but still during 2016.

Study the TA! (JJG  ) Whenever there are similarities in charts, be prepared. Bitcoin rallies exactly when the general belief for a rally to happen is the lowest. I remember fondly that in Feb-2015 in the self-nominated World Bitcoin Elite meeting (Satoshi Roundtable I) was almost unanimously short in BTC. As you can see by checking back, the meeting was the turnpoint in BTC price, hopefully the delegates did not get burnt too badly and the rise was from their covering of shorts, not their burning 

On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

[Carlton Banks]

On the other hand this time we will go into the halving with zero txs capacity increase!

First 3.6MB block mined on SegNet last week, and SegWit has been pulled to the Bitcoin repo. You've got no idea what you're talking about (as usual).


(p.s. don't waste everyone's time replying to me)