Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

GOOD READ:

4 Lessons I Learned Trading Bitcoin in 2016

https://blog.whaleclub.co/4-lessons-i-learned-trading-bitcoin-in-2016-1f034827a1f1#.di3uw852y

[afbitcoins]

GOOD READ:

4 Lessons I Learned Trading Bitcoin in 2016

https://blog.whaleclub.co/4-lessons-i-learned-trading-bitcoin-in-2016-1f034827a1f1#.di3uw852y

+1

Yes a good read

[Afrikoin]

Interesting comment on this chart by John Bollinger, inventor of Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin Markets

says "that is a LOT of compression. Time to pay attention!"

[Afrikoin]

Interesting comment on this chart by John Bollinger, inventor of Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin Markets

says "that is a LOT of compression. Time to pay attention!"

"Note that narrowing bands do not provide any directional clues. They simply infer that volatility is contracting and chartists should be prepared for a volatility expansion, which means a directional move"

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:bollinger_band_squee

[Afrikoin]

Goldman Sachs Downgrades Global Equities, Recommends Cash

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-18/goldman-sachs-downgrades-global-equities-recommends-cash

"Goldman analysts led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann have downgraded global equities to 'neutral' over the next 12 months, recommending investors turn to cash instead."

"The firm remains overweight cash mainly due to the market 'only' expecting zero or one additional interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve through the rest of 2016."

[Afrikoin]

This was in my country's newspaper today Really proud

[Afrikoin]

Sorry to dissappoint you r0ach. But Bitcoin is about to take a bit of a drop from here. I hope for your sake, and for mine since I have a blind buy in at $420, that BTC won't just go and break everyone's hearts and punch right through that very important $420 level, without even giving it a second look.

[Afrikoin]

@jared;

I'll explain for anyone wondering, again.
Maybe this post should be pinned so that I'm not called a troll or shill (whatever the hell that means).
 
It should not be suspect that I have a bearish stance for a midterm time frame. I have had the same view (with minor alterations along the way) for 2 years. I had my thread where I forecasted lower low after lower low on the way down to $152. I then posted a chart that has made its way through a few posts and quoted by others which resembled this count and expected path. It has changed very little over the last year except as I said in an earlier post here, about the time it has taken.


That is what I would call a mid term outlook. Since $152, I was short-mid term bullish for the duration of my proposed (B) wave. Longer-mid term bearish, and since day one in 2011, Bullish long term on the ideas of Bitcoin. Bitcoin being number one, but never 100% convinced that it would be the final iteration of blockchain tech. Awesome if it is, but myspace was cool until it wasn't. We all know Bitcoin has its problems and I would be ecstatic if they were fixed so that an "altcoin" doesn't replace it.
My longer mid term PoV can still change, but NOTHING as of yet has me questioning my stance and projection for my proposed remainder of the correction since $1200. I could never be ranked with the likes of the falllling crowd or one of the multitude of 5 rand char users that grace this board daily with one liner OP's. I always (99% of the time) give thoughtful responses and rational reasoning to my views. Perhaps my definition of "rational" is different from yours, but as someone who has very little at risk in either direction we head next, I feel that I have an unbiased opinion. Granted it is often bearish for a long while now, but that is only because my analysis tells me so. I'm not bearish because I want to be, I am because it's what my experience tells me.

As far as halving, It is something that is a known, and has been since January 3, 2009 when Satoshi released the white paper. With 70%+ coins already having been mined, halving has no substantial bearing on anything except a speculation value and as proof of a slowing of inflation. Unless demand rises, halving makes no difference other than to those who make a profit on verifying transactions. Difficulty can drop too! Underwater miners is what can make that happen. I know the chart above isn't what anyone here wants to see, nor is it one they want to believe. It's my take, and halving isn't a guarantee that it won't happen just the same as I don't guarantee that my forecast will happen.


Sorry for the wall of text

[Afrikoin]

Possible count on Bitfinex. Wave c could easily go lower as long as it stays above $389. It could also have just completed but would look better with another drop.

[afbitcoins]

I don't go in for Elliot wave stuff myself for me trend still looks bullish, although with short term bearish pressure and yet again another wedge constraining the action.

[spazzdla]

$400 n up.. down?!?..? $440ish the bottom and up?!

NEXT COIN TIME

NEXT COIN CHANNEL

[Afrikoin]

This highlights problems (w/protocol) bitcoin needs to iron out for price to trully take off. There are indifferences in the development and mining community, and right now, the protocol is the fundamental ofr price. No protocol, no bitcoin.

Antpool Will Not Run SegWit Without Bitcoin Block Size Increase Hard Fork

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/antpool-will-not-run-segwit-without-block-size-increase-hard-fork-1464028753

[Afrikoin]

Bunch of lines converging there, flat and boring June is coming.

Then, only then, will it be time for the fireworks 

[Tzupy]

The evolution of the bid sum on various exchanges does not support a bullish scenario. Compared with December with a top of 475$, the bids are now much lower on
western exchanges, down to 50% on Bitstamp. On Huobi, I suspect a whale / miner bullish manipulation: some 30 - 40 million CNY have been added to the bids during the
last month, but without a real intent on buying, or we would be over 500$ already. Those bids have been pulled every time a minor dump occurred.
Daily MACD has crossed to negative on Bitfinex and Bitstamp, but not on Chinese exchanges yet. So IMO the market  is vulnerable to bad news, especially from China.
A possible bad news could be the auctioning of the 202k BTC during the MtGox distribution, which could be announced tomorrow (or not, distribution by BTC would be bullish).
If the auction(s) will take place, this could trigger 2 tests of the bottom support, one on the announcement, the other on the auction. After the distribution by fiat
I would expect a rally, fueled by FOMO buying with the newly available funds.

PS. Found a scenario that is in line with my expectations.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/bRHCR1I2-Bitcoin-The-End-of-an-Era/

[Afrikoin]

ShowDAOn: Bitcoin Lookahead # 9

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRyhSt-Ponw&feature=youtu.be&a

[Afrikoin]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98189e2a-2af2-11e5-acfb-cbd2e1c81cca.html#ixzz49k7sm9er

"For Mr Masters, it is an investment opportunity. It has all the characteristics of the oil market when he first started at Shell in London in 1985, he says, being volatile, periodically illiquid and sparsely regulated."

[korila]

At that time we had Willy bot manipulating price, and Chinese government didn't take any actions


Things are way different now

[Afrikoin]

@jared;

I'll explain for anyone wondering, again.
Maybe this post should be pinned so that I'm not called a troll or shill (whatever the hell that means).
 
It should not be suspect that I have a bearish stance for a midterm time frame. I have had the same view (with minor alterations along the way) for 2 years. I had my thread where I forecasted lower low after lower low on the way down to $152. I then posted a chart that has made its way through a few posts and quoted by others which resembled this count and expected path. It has changed very little over the last year except as I said in an earlier post here, about the time it has taken.



That is what I would call a mid term outlook. Since $152, I was short-mid term bullish for the duration of my proposed (B) wave. Longer-mid term bearish, and since day one in 2011, Bullish long term on the ideas of Bitcoin. Bitcoin being number one, but never 100% convinced that it would be the final iteration of blockchain tech. Awesome if it is, but myspace was cool until it wasn't. We all know Bitcoin has its problems and I would be ecstatic if they were fixed so that an "altcoin" doesn't replace it.
My longer mid term PoV can still change, but NOTHING as of yet has me questioning my stance and projection for my proposed remainder of the correction since $1200. I could never be ranked with the likes of the falllling crowd or one of the multitude of 5 rand char users that grace this board daily with one liner OP's. I always (99% of the time) give thoughtful responses and rational reasoning to my views. Perhaps my definition of "rational" is different from yours, but as someone who has very little at risk in either direction we head next, I feel that I have an unbiased opinion. Granted it is often bearish for a long while now, but that is only because my analysis tells me so. I'm not bearish because I want to be, I am because it's what my experience tells me.

As far as halving, It is something that is a known, and has been since January 3, 2009 when Satoshi released the white paper. With 70%+ coins already having been mined, halving has no substantial bearing on anything except a speculation value and as proof of a slowing of inflation. Unless demand rises, halving makes no difference other than to those who make a profit on verifying transactions. Difficulty can drop too! Underwater miners is what can make that happen. I know the chart above isn't what anyone here wants to see, nor is it one they want to believe. It's my take, and halving isn't a guarantee that it won't happen just the same as I don't guarantee that my forecast will happen.


Sorry for the wall of text

tHIS CHART WAS SUPPOSED TO BE in the above text

[Tzupy]

The Chinese pumpers are about to invalidate my scenario (short term bearish, medium term bullish), and may give RyNinDaCleM's scenario the first row.
In such case, here is how I would expect this to happen, a bit slower if the current timings are to continue: