Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Dafar]

$632!


would someone please start watching and tell us when the top is close?

what is expected top?

I'm sure Tzupy has all the answers, the astute bear that he is. Did his bear leverage give him a pleasant colonoscopy recently or is he long like a normal crypto front-runner?

Just FYI I went long on the 12h PSAR flip to bullish, that was at 590$. Will see how high this goes, maybe 680$ maybe a bit more, but then I expect a strong correction.

We're at $678... so basically now?

[sandiman]

$632!


would someone please start watching and tell us when the top is close?

what is expected top?

I'm sure Tzupy has all the answers, the astute bear that he is. Did his bear leverage give him a pleasant colonoscopy recently or is he long like a normal crypto front-runner?

Just FYI I went long on the 12h PSAR flip to bullish, that was at 590$. Will see how high this goes, maybe 680$ maybe a bit more, but then I expect a strong correction.

We're at $678... so basically now?

this escalated quickly 

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

Not to rain on the parade, BUT, lets be cautious and not get caught up in FOMO.

Recall

[sandiman]

Not to rain on the parade, BUT, lets be cautious and not get caught up in FOMO.

Recall

img]https://i.imgur.com/NmloDPf.png?1[/img]

I don't really get this chart but if those are 5 elliot waves rules are broken.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Not to rain on the parade, BUT, lets be cautious and not get caught up in FOMO.

Recall

img]https://i.imgur.com/NmloDPf.png?1[/img]

I don't really get this chart but if those are 5 elliot waves rules are broken.

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.

[sandiman]

Not to rain on the parade, BUT, lets be cautious and not get caught up in FOMO.

Recall

img]https://i.imgur.com/NmloDPf.png?1[/img]

I don't really get this chart but if those are 5 elliot waves rules are broken.

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.
img]https://i.imgur.com/bVKlFm4.png[/img]

That's some nice chart but I don't know how to recreate it with the same scale ! what was the lenght of the first waves, and so around what is the estimate of the top of the 5 waves?
What I can't do with that chart is channel it. I can't see if waves (3) top respected the channel cause idk the beginning of the first waves. nonetheless, waves (4) is totally out of channel there, what do you think of that? Again, if we use channeling to forecast the end of the (5) waves, the moon is the only limit?
Maybe using btc chart since its beginning is not accurate to drow waves since some argue all markets are primilarly bearish (then counting after the top could be seen as correct?). Anyway, it is very important to collect all the views that you can and then eliminate to keep the most correct waves count.

[lebing]

I am quite skeptical of elliot wave at the moment because China does what it wants. Any technical selling pressure from charting whales in the west will be just scoffed at.

IMO we are going to see a run up into 5k+ and when it crashes much of the pressure will be alleviated into altcoins this time rather than into USD so the violent nature of the previous returns to earth will be a lot flatter and take a lot more time.

[Tzupy]

So far, there was no correction that triggered a cascade of stop losses, but I am waiting for it...

[Afrikoin]

I am quite skeptical of elliot wave at the moment because China does what it wants. Any technical selling pressure from charting whales in the west will be just scoffed at.

IMO we are going to see a run up into 5k+ and when it crashes much of the pressure will be alleviated into altcoins this time rather than into USD so the violent nature of the previous returns to earth will be a lot flatter and take a lot more time.

China is a well orchestrated FUD. If you can't see this, you havent been following the fundamental news (as a trend) from as far back as a year out.

My 2 cents.

This rise seems highly coordinated and perfectly timed. Everything seems right. But in essence, not much has changed about the Bitcoin fundamentals. Sure, we've had some impressive CSVs mining votes,, but still, no soft fork and no hard fork (both necesaary in the medium term).

This, feels to me like a FOMO induced Bull run. Alread, 10 friends (in Kenya) have called me up wanted to buy some. Just because of the hype!

Can't you see? The news, halving, price rise all fit perfectly well. The chart i have posted above was well before this rise. Even a chart i have posted before, pointing to a wave B top anywhere upto $1000 was way before this rise.

I am with RynDicelm on this one. This won't go too high up. I wil be watching for the 'next' event that triggers a sell off.

Of course, as you guys know, i could be wrong. I always add a caveat because the future is largely unknown. So, happy to hear other opinions, and change my mind.

* Sorry, no edits, can't be bothered.

[Afrikoin]

I am quite skeptical of elliot wave at the moment because China does what it wants. Any technical selling pressure from charting whales in the west will be just scoffed at.

IMO we are going to see a run up into 5k+ and when it crashes much of the pressure will be alleviated into altcoins this time rather than into USD so the violent nature of the previous returns to earth will be a lot flatter and take a lot more time.

Lets reserve this quote and look back on it in a year.

[Afrikoin]

Not to rain on the parade, BUT, lets be cautious and not get caught up in FOMO.

Recall

img]https://i.imgur.com/NmloDPf.png?1[/img]

I don't really get this chart but if those are 5 elliot waves rules are broken.

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.
img]https://i.imgur.com/bVKlFm4.png[/img]

That's some nice chart but I don't know how to recreate it with the same scale ! what was the lenght of the first waves, and so around what is the estimate of the top of the 5 waves?
What I can't do with that chart is channel it. I can't see if waves (3) top respected the channel cause idk the beginning of the first waves. nonetheless, waves (4) is totally out of channel there, what do you think of that? Again, if we use channeling to forecast the end of the (5) waves, the moon is the only limit?
Maybe using btc chart since its beginning is not accurate to drow waves since some argue all markets are primilarly bearish (then counting after the top could be seen as correct?). Anyway, it is very important to collect all the views that you can and then eliminate to keep the most correct waves count.

There are rules to plotting EW wave patterns and forecasting. Rules about 'how long' and 'period of time' based on fibonacci rules.

I suggest you read Robert Prechter's book on elliott waves. Just google Robert Prechter + Elliot Waves and you will find it.

Like you, i started out here young on EW. You can look through my history and see my early noob Q's on EW.

Today, i am better. When i read EW forecasts, i see what they mean. I have fused it into my medium and long term trading strategies. I was mostly a fan of Nison and candlesticks. But, EW has added a different dimension. I now look at the market differently. And, no matter what people say (haters) EW works. Take it from me.

Cheers! and good luck!

[Afrikoin]

People here (an on bitcoin markets and r/bitcoin) make fun of Danv.

But this chart here was perhaps his greatest work. It forecasted what we are in today (if you forecast by elimination).

[Afrikoin]

Not to rain on the parade, BUT, lets be cautious and not get caught up in FOMO.

Recall

img]https://i.imgur.com/NmloDPf.png?1[/img]

I don't really get this chart but if those are 5 elliot waves rules are broken.

EW waves can be 5 waves of 3 waves. Look again

[sandiman]

Not to rain on the parade, BUT, lets be cautious and not get caught up in FOMO.

Recall

img]https://i.imgur.com/NmloDPf.png?1[/img]

I don't really get this chart but if those are 5 elliot waves rules are broken.

EW waves can be 5 waves of 3 waves. Look again

img]https://i.imgur.com/gWfBDmj.jpg?1[/img]

right, I miss readed it thank you

[sandiman]

Not to rain on the parade, BUT, lets be cautious and not get caught up in FOMO.

Recall

img]https://i.imgur.com/NmloDPf.png?1[/img]

I don't really get this chart but if those are 5 elliot waves rules are broken.

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.
img]https://i.imgur.com/bVKlFm4.png[/img]

That's some nice chart but I don't know how to recreate it with the same scale ! what was the lenght of the first waves, and so around what is the estimate of the top of the 5 waves?
What I can't do with that chart is channel it. I can't see if waves (3) top respected the channel cause idk the beginning of the first waves. nonetheless, waves (4) is totally out of channel there, what do you think of that? Again, if we use channeling to forecast the end of the (5) waves, the moon is the only limit?
Maybe using btc chart since its beginning is not accurate to drow waves since some argue all markets are primilarly bearish (then counting after the top could be seen as correct?). Anyway, it is very important to collect all the views that you can and then eliminate to keep the most correct waves count.

There are rules to plotting EW wave patterns and forecasting. Rules about 'how long' and 'period of time' based on fibonacci rules.

I suggest you read Robert Prechter's book on elliott waves. Just google Robert Prechter + Elliot Waves and you will find it.

Like you, i started out here young on EW. You can look through my history and see my early noob Q's on EW.

Today, i am better. When i read EW forecasts, i see what they mean. I have fused it into my medium and long term trading strategies. I was mostly a fan of Nison and candlesticks. But, EW has added a different dimension. I now look at the market differently. And, no matter what people say (haters) EW works. Take it from me.

Cheers! and good luck!

Thank you, I already looked at all the video available there http://www.elliottwave.com/Video/Classic-Elliott-Wave-Educational-Series and I was really interested by elliot waves and I am really looking to go deeper into it!
Cheers again!

[lebing]

I am quite skeptical of elliot wave at the moment because China does what it wants. Any technical selling pressure from charting whales in the west will be just scoffed at.

IMO we are going to see a run up into 5k+ and when it crashes much of the pressure will be alleviated into altcoins this time rather than into USD so the violent nature of the previous returns to earth will be a lot flatter and take a lot more time.

China is a well orchestrated FUD. If you can't see this, you havent been following the fundamental news (as a trend) from as far back as a year out.

My 2 cents.

This rise seems highly coordinated and perfectly timed. Everything seems right. But in essence, not much has changed about the Bitcoin fundamentals. Sure, we've had some impressive CSVs mining votes,, but still, no soft fork and no hard fork (both necesaary in the medium term).

I wasn't talking about China's falling yuan pressure, I was talking about China buying through Huobi and OKcoin. They have been driving this rally from the start.

You won't get any arguments from me about the fundamentals not changing. But China does not listen to reason. If they did, they wouldn't have started buying in the first place.

We are going to see insanely backed up mempools and overall nastiness which will eventually bang some reason into china's head about the reality of the situation (which again will cause more buying into ETH as bitcoin falls)... but I don't think we are anywhere near that happening just yet.

[Tzupy]

$632!

would someone please start watching and tell us when the top is close?

what is expected top?

I'm sure Tzupy has all the answers, the astute bear that he is. Did his bear leverage give him a pleasant colonoscopy recently or is he long like a normal crypto front-runner?

Just FYI I went long on the 12h PSAR flip to bullish, that was at 590$. Will see how high this goes, maybe 680$ maybe a bit more, but then I expect a strong correction.

We're at $678... so basically now?

I was expecting this dump to be "the strong correction", or at least the first leg. But despite large red volume, price didn't fall deep.
So while I did short today at 700$, I closed most of it and have now a tiny short from 810$, waiting for a possible bounce to add to my position.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thank you, I already looked at all the video available there http://www.elliottwave.com/Video/Classic-Elliott-Wave-Educational-Series and I was really interested by elliot waves and I am really looking to go deeper into it!
Cheers again!

EW educational series videos are a great reference to keep on hand. What I have told people for a couple of years now is to count everything. When you think you got it, count it again. I've even counted world population graphs (btw, world population is in a bubble... Expect a crash ) Practice is key! Start yourself a thread to post your progress and charts. I'd be happy to critique your work as I'm sure others would too. (pro tip: make it self-moderated to keep the trolls out) It gets easier to understand and becomes second nature. Just keep at it.
Check my thread for some info on the psychology and some useful tools.

[meh32123]

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.

Ryan, is B invalidated now? or only if week close is above 685?