Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[windjc]

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.

Ryan, is B invalidated now? or only if week close is above 685?

Technically B could go past ATHs.

[sandiman]

Thank you, I already looked at all the video available there http://www.elliottwave.com/Video/Classic-Elliott-Wave-Educational-Series and I was really interested by elliot waves and I am really looking to go deeper into it!
Cheers again!

EW educational series videos are a great reference to keep on hand. What I have told people for a couple of years now is to count everything. When you think you got it, count it again. I've even counted world population graphs (btw, world population is in a bubble... Expect a crash ) Practice is key! Start yourself a thread to post your progress and charts. I'd be happy to critique your work as I'm sure others would too. (pro tip: make it self-moderated to keep the trolls out) It gets easier to understand and becomes second nature. Just keep at it.
Check my thread for some info on the psychology and some useful tools.

Thank you for the tips!! I started trying to count everything in both BTC and ETH chart which I look a lot, and it is a complete failure   Looks like I am going to need some time to train now  

Reading your thread for some more knowledge about it! cheers

[sandiman]

What about creating a slack (or other chat) for EW analysis in the BTC market? then we could all share our analysis easily?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.

Ryan, is B invalidated now? or only if week close is above 685?

Technically B could go past ATHs.

This is true, unfortunately, so it adds some ambiguity when approaching the ATH. The structure from either of the two sub-200 lows is what tells me this is the B and why I am still medium term bearish. As always, I continue to watch for signs that this is the (5) of III instead of the B.

[sandiman]

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.
img]https://i.imgur.com/bVKlFm4.png[/img]

Ryan, is B invalidated now? or only if week close is above 685?

Technically B could go past ATHs.

This is true, unfortunately, so it adds some ambiguity when approaching the ATH. The structure from either of the two sub-200 lows is what tells me this is the B and why I am still medium term bearish. As always, I continue to watch for signs that this is the (5) of III instead of the B.

What does the psychology of the market signify now? is it more appropriate for a B waves or a 5th?
I remember from the videos that Bob was speaking about the 5st waves as really euphoric. That you could see all kind of new option and future being added as trade engine. as an example an XBT provider engine opened trade today (http://inpublic.globenewswire.com/2016/06/14/Bitcoin+certificates+resume+trading+following+Global+Advisors+acquisition+of+XBT+Provider+HUG2020261.html;jsessionid=4Y5NIAcM62GEBIkMp1k_WUOAxLAz_WUwpSLPi1JZqPavPR2dcX6a!1549091939). what do you think of that?
Moreover, as BTC is a commodity, do you think the fifth wave should be more powerful than the third?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.
img]https://i.imgur.com/bVKlFm4.png[/img]

Ryan, is B invalidated now? or only if week close is above 685?

Technically B could go past ATHs.

This is true, unfortunately, so it adds some ambiguity when approaching the ATH. The structure from either of the two sub-200 lows is what tells me this is the B and why I am still medium term bearish. As always, I continue to watch for signs that this is the (5) of III instead of the B.

What does the psychology of the market signify now? is it more appropriate for a B waves or a 5th?
I remember from the videos that Bob was speaking about the 5st waves as really euphoric. That you could see all kind of new option and future being added as trade engine. as an example an XBT provider engine opened trade today (http://inpublic.globenewswire.com/2016/06/14/Bitcoin+certificates+resume+trading+following+Global+Advisors+acquisition+of+XBT+Provider+HUG2020261.html;jsessionid=4Y5NIAcM62GEBIkMp1k_WUOAxLAz_WUwpSLPi1JZqPavPR2dcX6a!1549091939). what do you think of that?
Moreover, as BTC is a commodity, do you think the fifth wave should be more powerful than the third?

Well, it is possible that we are in or nearing the 5th of the c of B. so both?
The thing about B waves is that the correction is believed to be over, so bull mentality kicks back in. It's not until a top is in when reality kicks in. This is why B waves are considered suckers rally's.

[sandiman]

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.
img]https://i.imgur.com/bVKlFm4.png[/img]

Ryan, is B invalidated now? or only if week close is above 685?

Technically B could go past ATHs.

This is true, unfortunately, so it adds some ambiguity when approaching the ATH. The structure from either of the two sub-200 lows is what tells me this is the B and why I am still medium term bearish. As always, I continue to watch for signs that this is the (5) of III instead of the B.

What does the psychology of the market signify now? is it more appropriate for a B waves or a 5th?
I remember from the videos that Bob was speaking about the 5st waves as really euphoric. That you could see all kind of new option and future being added as trade engine. as an example an XBT provider engine opened trade today (http://inpublic.globenewswire.com/2016/06/14/Bitcoin+certificates+resume+trading+following+Global+Advisors+acquisition+of+XBT+Provider+HUG2020261.html;jsessionid=4Y5NIAcM62GEBIkMp1k_WUOAxLAz_WUwpSLPi1JZqPavPR2dcX6a!1549091939). what do you think of that?
Moreover, as BTC is a commodity, do you think the fifth wave should be more powerful than the third?

Well, it is possible that we are in or nearing the 5th of the c of B. so both?
The thing about B waves is that the correction is believed to be over, so bull mentality kicks back in. It's not until a top is in when reality kicks in. This is why B waves are considered suckers rally's.

Didn't think about the bold sentence, going back to work on waves now. 
I am really watching your chart in case it does happen, cause Waves C would be really damaging for most of the holders in case they don't sell (holder speaking).

[RyNinDaCleM]

Rules aren't broken, all the waves are there
two possible counts, one goes down in a corrective C eventually, the other makes new ath's but expecting more than 2-3k is unrealistic. Not impossible, but definitely unrealistic.
img]https://i.imgur.com/bVKlFm4.png[/img]

Ryan, is B invalidated now? or only if week close is above 685?

Technically B could go past ATHs.

This is true, unfortunately, so it adds some ambiguity when approaching the ATH. The structure from either of the two sub-200 lows is what tells me this is the B and why I am still medium term bearish. As always, I continue to watch for signs that this is the (5) of III instead of the B.

What does the psychology of the market signify now? is it more appropriate for a B waves or a 5th?
I remember from the videos that Bob was speaking about the 5st waves as really euphoric. That you could see all kind of new option and future being added as trade engine. as an example an XBT provider engine opened trade today (http://inpublic.globenewswire.com/2016/06/14/Bitcoin+certificates+resume+trading+following+Global+Advisors+acquisition+of+XBT+Provider+HUG2020261.html;jsessionid=4Y5NIAcM62GEBIkMp1k_WUOAxLAz_WUwpSLPi1JZqPavPR2dcX6a!1549091939). what do you think of that?
Moreover, as BTC is a commodity, do you think the fifth wave should be more powerful than the third?

Well, it is possible that we are in or nearing the 5th of the c of B. so both?
The thing about B waves is that the correction is believed to be over, so bull mentality kicks back in. It's not until a top is in when reality kicks in. This is why B waves are considered suckers rally's.

Didn't think about the bold sentence, going back to work on waves now. 
I am really watching your chart in case it does happen, cause Waves C would be really damaging for most of the holders in case they don't sell (holder speaking).

Keep it as a possibility, but don't lose sleep over it. If it materializes, it will take time to complete.

[Afrikoin]

no dip to buy? WTF?

[RoadTrain]

It was only yesterday when I visited /r/Bitcoin, and most of posts there were about transaction backlog and stuck transactions. Bitcoin price doesn't seem to care about technical issues

[lebing]

no dip to buy? WTF?

Dude. I am telling you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDrfE9I8_hs

Same thing we saw in 2013.

[Tzupy]

THE PUMP FOLLOWS. Massive pump this one. COuld take us to $850.Im happy.HOLD!!!


China Buying Sparks Bitcoin Surge

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-buying-sparks-bitcoin-surge-1464608221

Paywall because of direct link. Google it to read. Copy paste of the article:

Chinese investors are pumping up bitcoin again, sending prices up nearly 16% in the past four days just two years after the country that was at the center of a boom and bust in the crypto-currency.

The four-day surge in bitcoin since Friday has added $1.2 billion in market capitalization for all bitcoin in circulation, according to data from blockchain.info. On Monday, prices moved up as high as $525.49 per bitcoin, though that’s still well below the all-time high of around $1,151 in November 2013.

ENLARGE Chinese bitcoin exchanges have been operating despite past efforts by Beijing to curb trading in the currency, which is not subject to any central authority and which can be traded almost instantly across borders.

Huobi and OKCoin, two Chinese exchanges, now collectively account for some 92% of global trading in bitcoin.

The surge in bitcoin buying this weekend could be the latest sign of how Chinese investors are moving money between asset classes quickly in search of high returns. In the past year, equities, bond and commodities markets in China have in turn seen massive surges of new investing, often followed by a collapse in prices as funds have moved elsewhere.

“There’s a lot of hot money in China that has to go somewhere,” says Du Jin, chief marketing officer at Huobi. Huobi has seen a surge of new registrants in the past one month, he said.

Expectations that new supply of the virtual currency will decrease next month could also be behind the latest price surge. The creation of bitcoin via a complicated computing process called “mining” gets more challenging over time, thanks to a mechanism which cuts the number of bitcoin that can be created in half every four years in order to limit supply.

ENLARGE But industry participants also say a number of China-specific factors are also in play.

Stories of scams in peer-to-peer financing have sent Chinese investors familiar with the most innovative forms of investing to bitcoin specifically, says Huobi’s Mr. Du.

The bitcoin network, composed of traders around the globe accessing virtual platforms via their computers and the Internet, also allows a discreet way for a Chinese to move money beyond the country’s tightly-controlled borders.

Bitcoin currently trades at a 7.2% premium when priced in Chinese yuan on mainland bitcoin exchanges compared to counterparts pricing the currency in U.S. dollars, according to industry tracker Bitcoinity.org.

ENLARGE This premium in Chinese prices has persisted throughout the year, suggesting that demand from the country has accounted for much of bitcoin’s recent gains, says Zennon Kapron, founder of financial technology consultancy Kapronasia and author of a book on bitcoin.

Investors are worried about the decreasing value of the yuan and “it seems that China is leading a lot of the movement,” he adds. “People are protecting their investments [by converting yuan into bitcoin].”

The is a count from which a top of 850$ very soon could have been guesstimated, but IMO it's overly optimistic.
So far the Chinese new fiat has topped, remains to be seen if more fresh Chinese fiat will enter. But the spike mobilized western bids, which are dumped upon.
New accounts mean IMO weak hands, they didn't buy to hold for months, there is some quick profit for them to make and most will realize that profit.

sentiment meter says we're due another leg up. I'll be honest, this looks like it could get to $850

Mainstream media is already hopping on board the halving supply band wagon.

I think you are concentrating too much on organics. Yet, this price rise is speculative due to halving, China etc.

I was wrong about many things, but I think I got this right, THEY ARE WEAK HANDS!

[Afrikoin]

THE PUMP FOLLOWS. Massive pump this one. COuld take us to $850.Im happy.HOLD!!!


China Buying Sparks Bitcoin Surge

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-buying-sparks-bitcoin-surge-1464608221

Paywall because of direct link. Google it to read. Copy paste of the article:

Chinese investors are pumping up bitcoin again, sending prices up nearly 16% in the past four days just two years after the country that was at the center of a boom and bust in the crypto-currency.

The four-day surge in bitcoin since Friday has added $1.2 billion in market capitalization for all bitcoin in circulation, according to data from blockchain.info. On Monday, prices moved up as high as $525.49 per bitcoin, though that’s still well below the all-time high of around $1,151 in November 2013.

ENLARGE Chinese bitcoin exchanges have been operating despite past efforts by Beijing to curb trading in the currency, which is not subject to any central authority and which can be traded almost instantly across borders.

Huobi and OKCoin, two Chinese exchanges, now collectively account for some 92% of global trading in bitcoin.

The surge in bitcoin buying this weekend could be the latest sign of how Chinese investors are moving money between asset classes quickly in search of high returns. In the past year, equities, bond and commodities markets in China have in turn seen massive surges of new investing, often followed by a collapse in prices as funds have moved elsewhere.

“There’s a lot of hot money in China that has to go somewhere,” says Du Jin, chief marketing officer at Huobi. Huobi has seen a surge of new registrants in the past one month, he said.

Expectations that new supply of the virtual currency will decrease next month could also be behind the latest price surge. The creation of bitcoin via a complicated computing process called “mining” gets more challenging over time, thanks to a mechanism which cuts the number of bitcoin that can be created in half every four years in order to limit supply.

ENLARGE But industry participants also say a number of China-specific factors are also in play.

Stories of scams in peer-to-peer financing have sent Chinese investors familiar with the most innovative forms of investing to bitcoin specifically, says Huobi’s Mr. Du.

The bitcoin network, composed of traders around the globe accessing virtual platforms via their computers and the Internet, also allows a discreet way for a Chinese to move money beyond the country’s tightly-controlled borders.

Bitcoin currently trades at a 7.2% premium when priced in Chinese yuan on mainland bitcoin exchanges compared to counterparts pricing the currency in U.S. dollars, according to industry tracker Bitcoinity.org.

ENLARGE This premium in Chinese prices has persisted throughout the year, suggesting that demand from the country has accounted for much of bitcoin’s recent gains, says Zennon Kapron, founder of financial technology consultancy Kapronasia and author of a book on bitcoin.

Investors are worried about the decreasing value of the yuan and “it seems that China is leading a lot of the movement,” he adds. “People are protecting their investments [by converting yuan into bitcoin].”

The is a count from which a top of 850$ very soon could have been guesstimated, but IMO it's overly optimistic.
So far the Chinese new fiat has topped, remains to be seen if more fresh Chinese fiat will enter. But the spike mobilized western bids, which are dumped upon.
New accounts mean IMO weak hands, they didn't buy to hold for months, there is some quick profit for them to make and most will realize that profit.

sentiment meter says we're due another leg up. I'll be honest, this looks like it could get to $850

Mainstream media is already hopping on board the halving supply band wagon.

I think you are concentrating too much on organics. Yet, this price rise is speculative due to halving, China etc.

I was wrong about many things, but I think I got this right, THEY ARE WEAK HANDS!

We were both right.

I still think there is room to go up again. perhaps $800. $850, $900.

But, I am cautious as i believe this is a Wave B. Very cautious.

Posting one chart possibility for the medium term below

[Afrikoin]

from my friend matthew

[RyNinDaCleM]

from my friend matthew

That's oddly familiar... 

[sandiman]

What was market sentiment during wave A ? I wasn't there so I can't tell, but waves B sentiment definitly looks as what's written in the books 

[RyNinDaCleM]

What was market sentiment during wave A ? I wasn't there so I can't tell, but waves B sentiment definitly looks as what's written in the books 

A was (as with any A) still positive at the start. Every lower low was "the bottom" and "it cannot drop below XXX". Well it did... Many times. General sentiment waned a little over the months, but not enough to say the bulls were beaten enough, imo. There were definite capitulation events and surprise white flags flown by unexpected members, but it wasn't a grim outlook by the majority. It never made it to the point that a bounce was expected to be "Just a bounce" (clear bottoming sentiment).

The psychology is another reason for my mid term outlook. A wave-1 should be full of selling because it's "just a bounce". "lower lows are coming" should be the general sentiment. That never happened. Bulls snapped right back to their old ways of trains, rockets, moons and dead bears. That is not wave-1 psychology, but wave-B psychology. Since the first bottoming in January 2015, the price was as messy and uncountable as a low liquidity, high volatility penny stock with manic traders...Not an impulse! Action since the second margin event in August last year was a little better for the bulls, but it still isn't as clear-cut as most see it. ONLY BFX made a LL there, and the mess between those two hot knives did not amount to a triangle, so it isn't as easy to just say it was a complex that completed the bear market. It feels more logical to me that the move between is the beginnings of a wave-B (or X) because it is said that if it is messy and uncountable, it is likely a wave-B. Well, that is exactly what it looks like to me.

[Feri22]

RyNinDaCleM, your signature says Bearish sentiment, since like ever and also since the price was under 200 USD -> now we are 3x higher...Are you trying to manipulate the noobs or what is this sorcery? I don't get it...

[quake313]

He will probably remain bearish until we pass $1200 and or enter an exponential growth phase.

[RyNinDaCleM]

RyNinDaCleM, your signature says Bearish sentiment, since like ever and also since the price was under 200 USD -> now we are 3x higher...Are you trying to manipulate the noobs or what is this sorcery? I don't get it...

Not at all! I don't wish misfortune on anyone. It was mainly to show my personal sentiment since I closed my EW thread to show where I feel this is going, eventually. THEN, a few members had to make a big fuss about it, and now it stays.

I never tell people to sell sell sell, or that Bitcoin is dead. In fact, I have told many people both privately and publicly that I don't like to advise any action because it's bad enough if I lose my own money on a trade, but I would feel terrible if I told someone to do something that ends with them losing money. My sig sentiment is merely my opinion on where we ultimately go when this wave B completes (if not already done, though I don't feel the top of B has been seen yet)

He will probably remain bearish until we pass $1200 and or enter an exponential growth phase.

That is entirely possible, but I do not let it get in the way of my trading.