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Author Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay  (Read 21370 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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May 07, 2016, 02:29:18 PM
 #121

Who did Negan kill in the season finale of The Walking Dead?

A month ago the AMC drama ‘The Walking Dead’ finally introduced Jeffrey Dean Morgan as the comic series' dastardly villain Negan, setting the stage for an all-out war to come in season seven. But the season six finale didn’t answer the biggest burning question on everyone's minds:

Who dies?

As expected, comics villain Negan made his debut in the closing scene of the 90-minute season finale when he lined up the survivors and, with his baseball bat covered in barbed wire, took a swing at one of them. However, the series cuts to black and the audio reveals only the brutal and savage sounds as Negan beats an unseen member of the group to death.

Who did Negan kill?

By failing to identify whom Negan whacks, the zombie drama is able to keep fans guessing when it comes to which of the beloved characters (Rick, Michonne, Glenn, Daryl, Rosita, Carl, Maggie, Aaron, Eugene, Abraham or Sasha) has met their maker. In the comics Negan killed Glenn and many think that this character had same fate in TV Series.

Did Negan kill Glenn?

Season seven premiere, scheduled for October 9 this year, will show us who was at the end of that bat. Many think that it could be Rosita, others are sure that it is Abraham, there are articles opened with 'Poor Eugene' but nothing is certain. If you watch this TV Series, you certainly have your opinion and now you also have an open market at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-did-negan-kill/.
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May 09, 2016, 02:41:33 PM
 #122

Who will be the next Spanish prime minister? Mariano Rajoy, Pedro Sanchez or someone else?

The 2015 Spanish general election was held on December 20, but no party secured a majority in this election, which had resulted in the most fragmented parliament since 1977. After months of negotiations, the four parties with the most seats were unable to reach an agreement and form a coalition government, leading to a fresh election in this year.

This was the first time in Spanish recent history that an election was triggered as a result of failure in the government formation process, and many hope this will change with the 2016 Spanish general election that will be held on June 26.

Still, is anything about to change? The latest poll of polls data from Electograph shows only minor changes compared to the results of the last general election on December 20, 2015. No party is currently forecast to be close to an overall majority, of 176 out of 350 seats in Congress, which history suggests requires at least 44% of the vote.

The order of the parties remains the same: PP, PSOE, Podemos, Ciudadanos and United Left. Thus Mariano Rajoy, leader of the conservative People’s party, is still given the biggest chances to be the next Spanish prime minister.

Second option is Spain’s Socialist party leader Pedro Sanchez, while none of other names is too popular at the moment, though following general election could change that. Will someone else prevail, or can Mariano Rajoy, who has been almost entirely absent from the recent political drama in Spain, prevail once again? Predict at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister/.
 
What is your opinion on recent political drama in Spain, and what other politics markets would you like to have created?
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May 10, 2016, 06:09:54 PM
 #123

It’s Eurovision time! Who will win this year? Russia, France, someone else?

Okay, it is still four days till the Grand Final scheduled for May 14, but tonight’s Semi Final 1 will be interesting as well. We will see Russia who is by far the biggest favorite to be the final winner on Saturday, but also to win tonight. Armenia, which is also one of the big favorites, is scheduled for tonight as well as 16 other nations.

You have an hour more to predict your Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - Semi Final 1 Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-1-winner/.

Semi Final 2 is scheduled for Thursday and that night most of the focus will be on Ukraine which chances improved a lot in the last few days, so Ukraine is the first favorite to win the Semi Final 2 as well. But we will also see Australia that is a rather popular bet, while Latvia, Bulgaria, Serbia and plenty other nations want a surprise win.

No need to hurry, you have two days more to predict Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - Semi Final 2 Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-2-winner/.

So, you have two evenings to hear all the songs and choose your favorite for the Grand Final scheduled for Saturday, and besides Russia and Ukraine, Sweden and France are also given rather big chances for the final win. They are already in the final, but you should hurry if you want to bet on them as odds could change after the semis.

You have four days more to predict the final Winner of Eurovision Song Contest 2016, but hurry up:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

Who is your favorite? And don’t forget that you can suggest some additional markets for the final evening as well.
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May 11, 2016, 11:29:15 AM
 #124

Can Sanders make another surprise by defeating Hillary in Kentucky?

‘She's on a course to win the Democratic nomination, but still piling up losses,’ was one of the comments about last night’s West Virginia Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders won it with 51% to Hillary’s 36%, though it doesn’t matter a lot in delegate tracker that Hillary leads with 2,239 to 1,469 (with 2,383 delegates needed for nomination).

But, these results do matter to Hillary as she is already starting her campaign against Donald Trump, so the next Tuesday will be important as well. It is time for closed primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. Sanders is favorite in Oregon but it will be especially interesting to see can he defeat Hillary in Kentucky as well.

Few months ago, Kentucky primaries looked like a sure win for Clinton but suddenly she had to start investing in Kentucky television advertisements, as she is with almost weekly results highlighting her relative weaknesses with white men and young voters. And Kentucky is a closed primary where only Democrats can compete.

As for Sanders, he has been the leading candidate for campaign donations coming from Kentucky for three straight months, according to an analysis performed by the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting. So, can this mean that he is about to win Kentucky as well? He is not without chances so make your prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kentucky-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on Kentucky Democratic primary, and what other primary markets do you want to see created?
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May 12, 2016, 12:27:21 PM
 #125

Will Oregon Democratic primary bring another win for ‘out of chances’ Bernie Sanders?

As Politico's David Wade writes, we already know Sanders isn’t going to win the Democratic Party’s nomination; Hillary Clinton has amassed more than 92 percent of the delegates needed to secure the nomination, and she’ll easily pick up the rest. So right now, Sanders’ campaign is the walking dead: a zombie.

Sanders needs to think long and hard about the big cost of criticizing the now-prohibitive Democratic front-runner. He didn’t set out to become Trump’s best ghostwriter for the general election, but that is the role continued attacks on Clinton risk earning him. Without math or momentum on his side, isn’t it better for Sanders to finish the campaign as a happy warrior and build a long-term movement for campaign finance reform?



He could help Hillary Clinton win big and sweep in a Democratic majority in the Senate. He could become a powerful committee chairman. He could return to the next Senate as one of its most influential players. And for an Independent socialist from Vermont who started this campaign as an asterisk, that’s a political revolution in itself.

He could. But Bernie is not doing that and he is going towards another win in Oregon next Tuesday, with Kentucky primaries being held the same day. Oregon polls are not great and do not show much but many think that recent momentum is not enough for Sanders to close and that Hillary has good chances as well. Fairlay market does not show that so if you think that Hillary has at least even chances you have great odds at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-oregon-democratic-primary/.
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May 12, 2016, 02:10:55 PM
 #126

As always, you can suggest your own Fairlay markets at this topic, but it's now also possible to create any market instantly without approval at https://www.fairlay.com/user/event/new.
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May 13, 2016, 05:13:37 PM
 #127

Who will finish last, and what will 1-2 order be in Eurovison Grand Final?

After two Semi Finals, Grand Final of Eurovision Song Contest 2016 is scheduled for tomorrow at 21.00 CET. Russia is still the favorite for the win, while Australia, Ukraine, Sweden, and France are give good chances as well:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 – Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.


You have probably placed your market on the Eurovision winner, but sometimes people are interested in losers as well. So, who will finish last? That race is far more interesting and we are without the real favorite for the last place.

Both Germany and United Kingdom could finish last as big nations are often among the last ones, but currently it is Georgia with the biggest chances to finish at the bottom. Hurry up to place your prediction on the biggest loser at:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - To Finish Last:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-to-finish-last/.


Voting system is always interesting to follow and when the votes are given it is not only about the leader but also about the runner up. So, in order to make the Grand Final more interesting you can now also predict 1-2 finish:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016: 1-2 Forecast:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-1-2-forecast/.


So, most think that Russia will be followed by Australia, or Ukraine, or even France. But, what is your opinion? Can someone else be Eurovision winner against all the odds on Russia? Who is your favorite for the Grand Final?
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May 17, 2016, 03:53:47 PM
 #128

Who will be Hillary’s Vice Presidential Candidate? Kaine? Castro? Perez? First Husband Bill?

It is almost certain that Hillary Clinton will be Democratic Presidential Nominee, so it is time to think about her Vice Presidential Candidate. There are plenty of names, most of them mentioned as the great option in the recent months. Still, that position is still far from the closed so here is the Fairlay market where you can now make your own prediction:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate/.

As you see, the biggest chances are currently given to Sen. Tim Kaine, a friend of President Barack Obama who is widely admired in the West Wing. But many think that at 58 he’d be too old to provide a generational contrast to the 68-year old Clinton, and too white for a campaign being defined by immigration reform and Trump’s attacks on minorities.

Thus, Sen. Elizabeth Warren is also not the best option, though she is amongst the favorites. So, we could have the under-the-radar choice with the name of Tom Perez who checks every box Clinton’s going to need if she is the nominee: progressives, unions, African-Americans, Obama loyalists, Latinos. But, Julian Castro is also near that group of people.

And some think that Xavier Becerra is among Latinos that Hillary could pick. Still, many think that being 57 he is also too old. With this logic, with 47, Cory Booker could be a good option and he is also a black man. In the end, Bernie Sanders is the one who is loved by the young people, so could he be a surprise Democratic Candidate for Vice President?

All in all, plenty of names are talked about and there will always be those who think that the First Husband, and former President, Bill Clinton could be a perfect Vice President. So, it is Hillary’s time to choose and if you think that you know who will her candidate be, you have great odds on any of the names at Fairlay market, so hurry up to pick one:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate/.
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May 18, 2016, 02:03:13 PM
 #129

Is Bernie Sanders able to make a surprise win in the California Democratic primary?

“No one can predict the future, but I think we have a real shot to win primaries in a number of the states that will be coming up. And don't tell Secretary Clinton because she might get nervous,” said Bernie Sanders to his supporters in Carson, California after winning Oregon and losing Kentucky by a small margin last night. “I think we're going to win here in California.”

So, though Hillary has a strong lead in the delegate race, Sanders is showing no signs of backing down. In fact, Sanders has vowed to take his fight all the way until the June 14 voting in the District of Columbia and beyond to the July convention in Philadelphia.

With all of this, Hillary Clinton's Kentucky win was just a joyless victory in a week that exposed a deep Democratic rift. And now the only question is will Sanders use his momentum in the June primaries. And the most important one is one in California, scheduled for Tuesday, June 6, as it gives 475 delegates, far more than any other country does.

Now, Hillary is likely to build a brisk campaign schedule for the coming stretch, hoping to minimize her opponent’s delegate count. California polls are certainly going in her favor, as the most recent ones show that she has a strong 49.7% to 40.6% lead, with 7.6% undecided.

Sanders recently had some bad news as a handful of high-level staffers left his campaign, including three of the four members of his original senior leadership team in California. This, and the fact that he lost all the big states, put Hillary as a big favorite, but if you think that Sanders can use his recent momentum to win California as well, you have great odds at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.

What is your opinion on the California primary, and what other June primaries markets would you like to bet on?
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May 22, 2016, 01:14:09 PM
 #130

Will Florida pass the medical marijuana initiative in 2016?

Forida voters overwhelmingly support legalization of medical marijuana, pollsters said recently, and most also favor legalization of recreational pot use. Medical pot smoking in already on the November ballot, so it is time to put it at Fairlay market as well:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/florida-to-pass-the-medical-marijuana-initiative-in-2016/.

So, according to the market, Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative is likely to pass this time. Still, many think that medical marijuana supporters shouldn't count on a victory just yet. Does that mean that predicting No on this market could be a smart choice?

Support for medical marijuana was also high before the 2014 election, but before an opposition campaign raised doubts among voters. Opponents have promised a vigorous opposition effort this year, which again could drive down support.

Also, the constitutional amendment requires 60 percent of the vote to pass. And few days ago the well-funded campaign opposing Florida’s medical marijuana ballot initiative released a new video advertisement calling the proposal a ‘scam to legalize pot.’

What is your opinion on this market, and do you want to see some similar ones created as well? And don't forget that already have an open market on whether California will legalise marijuana in 2016. So, use your time to also predict that one at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.
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May 23, 2016, 11:07:19 AM
 #131

What will be the End of the year price of Bitcoin? Under $500, or even over $600?

Bitcoin price is always a popular topic, but even more recently as we are less than two months away from the Halving and many think that it will change the price of bitcoin. Change it a Lot. But how much is a lot?

Because of this you already have Fairlay market about the Price of Bitcoin 30 days after the Halving (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/), but some think that 30 days after the Halving is rather short period of time in the context of bigger change.

Okay, so what will happen till the end of the year? Many think that recent period without bigger changes is the sure sign that the huge ones are coming, and even some of the experts think that the price will not be in hundreds but in thousands.

Still, you all know that those overestimations are rarely true, but can Bitcoin price at the end of the year close at $600 or higher? That isn’t such a huge number and it is one of the options at Fairlay ‘End of the year price of Bitcoin’ market that you can find here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-bitcoin/.


If you think that excitement with Halving is not a good thing and that other factors influence the price even more, then you can predict that the price will stay under $500 even at the end of the year.

Anyway, you now have another Bitcoin price related market open and thus you can earn even more of them if you predict right the range at which Bitcoin will be at the end of this year. As usual, you can suggest your own Bitcoin related markets. So, which other ones would you like to have created?
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May 24, 2016, 01:14:20 PM
 #132

Will Sanders close South Dakota, and will Hillary win in New Mexico on the penultimate voting day?

It is another Tuesday, but this time with nothing interesting on the US Presidential Election scene. All is finished with the Republicans, so we can focus even more on June 7, the penultimate voting day in the Democratic primary. You already have at Fairlay offer market for California primary and you can make your prediction on it at:

California Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/
.

California is one of the six states holding a Democratic primary on June 7, alongside North Dakota, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico, all of them before Washington, D.C., on June 14. And though it is almost sure that Hillary will be Democratic nominee, it will be interesting to see how much will Sanders harm her to the end.

He is a huge favorite to win Montana and North Dakota, but it will be interesting to see can he easily close South Dakota as well. Many think that it is one of the closest races left, but demographics of the state favor Bernie. But recently even Bill Clinton held a South Dakota campaign event on behalf of his wife. So can that help Hillary? Predict at:

South Dakota Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-dakota-democratic-primary/
.

And though she could lose both North and South Dakota, as well as Montana, Hillary is a large favorite to win New Jersey, while she hopes that she can add to it California and New Mexico. Demographics of New Mexico favor Hillary, she wins in areas with large Hispanic populations, as well as the fact that New Mexico is a closed primary.

“We’re going to win this state,” Bernie Sanders told a crowd of supporters in Santa Fe few days ago. So, Bernie thinks that he can use his recent momentum to win New Mexico as well. Some even think that Bill doing campaigns on her behalf could hurt Hillary. Can Bernie make a surprise win, or it will be big win for Hillary? Predict at Fairlay:

New Mexico Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-mexico-democratic-primary/
.

So, what do you think about these primaries, and would you like to have some other events created as well?
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May 25, 2016, 12:41:00 PM
 #133

Will Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president these days?

As there is not much fuss with the primaries, popular topic that emerged these days is will, and when, Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president? With this move he would end a nearly unprecedented standoff between the House speaker and his party’s presumptive presidential nominee.

Trump’s campaign manager, Paul Manafort, told that he expects Ryan to endorse the party’s nominee as early as this week, but on the other side Ryan aides say nothing has been decided about a possible Trump endorsement.

And, as many think that the endorsement will come in the following days, others are sure that Ryan will continue to distance himself from the combative Trump enough to leave him in a good position to run in 2020 if the billionaire is trounced in November.

Also, for Ryan to endorse Trump, he would have to explain away deep divisions between his positions and Trump’s. But if he decides to endorse publicly, that wouldn’t matter so much. So, what will Paul Ryan do? Predict at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-paul-ryan-endorse-donald-trump-for-president-before-june-15/
.
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May 26, 2016, 12:17:21 PM
 #134

The UK's EU referendum: Will UK remain, what will be remain vote %, and what turnout %?

We are less than a month away from the UK's EU referendum scheduled for Thursday, 23 June. People of the UK will on that day decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union.

And though few months ago many thought that the UK will easily leave the European Union, recent opinion polls show that its people will probably vote to stay in the EU. Still, if you think that voting for leaving the European Union is still possible, then you can use great odds on this option at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.

You can also follow by predicting the official % of votes that will go in favor of staying in the EU. Are we going to have some huge surprises like less than 40% people voting to remain, or even over 70%?

Still, some realistic results are more favorable, like that in the range of the 55.01% - 60% votes to remain. But, nothing is sure so if you can predict the right percentage of votes to remain in the EU in the UK’s EU referendum, then you can as well use great odds that you have on offer at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-to-remain-vote-percentage/.

And, what about referendum turnout? Will recent polls that people want to vote in the favor of staying stop people from even voting? Or will turnout be huge? You can go with 67.5% and under; or 67.6% and over, so predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-referendum-turnout/.
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May 27, 2016, 01:23:35 PM
 #135

Will Donald Trump once again lead Hillary Clinton in polling, at the start of June?

Few days ago, for the first time in this long election campaign, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. So, Clinton's double-digit lead, which she has held over the past several months, has vanished like it was never there. And it is time to ask how this happened, and what follows next?

Of course, it is not hard to see what happened. Recently, Republicans have rallied around Trump, and according to a Washington Post survey, 85% of Republicans plan to vote for their man. On the other side, Hillary still has a Bernie Sanders problem, and a recent Economist poll shows that among Sanders supporters, 55% would vote for Clinton.

And as the Sanders problem isn't going away, it's still early to predict what will happen in the long run. But, what about the short one? Who will lead polls in seven days, and by which margin? RealClearPolitics shows that yesterday Clinton had +1.0, but before that Trump had a +0.2. So, make your prediction for the poll margins on June 2:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-2/.

Markets are mostly divided about who will have lead in the following polls, and in the following few weeks they will mostly go both side from day to day, but this gives you great odds if you guess the right margin. So, do you think that Sanders will harm Hillary even more in the following days, or could she gain back her big lead in the election polls?
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May 30, 2016, 01:56:33 PM
 #136

Will be a third party candidate in any of the presidential general election debates?

With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on two sides, this years’ presidential general election debates are going to be all but boring. And the nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) already announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election.

Those three debates will be held in September and October on three different locations, but the most interesting question before the debates start is will there be a third party candidate, one that could favor either Hillary or Trump?

Some think that will not happen as CPD is controlled in a way that keep third parties out, while most agree that Trump will be negative towards the third candidate, and probably say that it is only there to stop him from winning.

But, with this in mind, could the addition of the third party candidate be pushed on by some of the parties in its own interest? Could even Trump favor someone who is likely to take votes away from Hillary, or could be this other way around? As in 1992, when Clinton won with 42% of the popular vote because Perot took votes away from Bush.

At the moment, the only question in can presumed Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson get 15% in an average of five national polls, though he’s been recently polling at 10%. Still, CPD could lower the standards, or even other independent candidate could get the attention. Anyway, both options are opened and now you have an open market at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-be-a-third-party-in-any-of-the-presidential-debates/.
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May 31, 2016, 02:00:49 PM
 #137

Who will rule Westeros? Daenerys? Jon Snow? Bran Stark?

Game of Thrones is getting more interesting from week to week, and last night we had the sixth episode of the sixth season. And though this one didn’t Hold the Door, it was another interesting one.

Once again Daenerys showed how much she wants to rule the seven kingdoms, so it is probably the right time to ask a big question: Who will rule Westeros? We are out of books, series is going on its own and the end is near.

So, who will rule it? Will Daenerys use her dragons, or Bran Stark his powers, or Jon Snow his… well, how much lives those he exactly has? Those free are given biggest chances at the Fairlay market that you can find at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-rule-westeros/.

But, Arya Stark is getting more and more dangerous, and he is again on her own, and Sansa is getting smarter as well. And, what is with Tryrion? He drinks, and he knows things. Can he use that to get to the Iron Throne?

What about all the other Lannisters, Tyrells, Greyjoys, and people like Petyr Baelish? Anyway, you surely have your opinion so share it here, and at the same some use the great odds by predicting (hopefully right) the ruler of Westeros.
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June 02, 2016, 06:26:04 PM
 #138

Will either Democrats or Republicans control both Congress and the White House after the elections?

We are five months and six days away from the US Elections, and it is time to once again ask a question about the chances that one party takes complete control after them with the undivided government, by taking control of both Congress and the White House. So, what are the chances for this to happen?

At the moment, it looks like this could happen to Republicans before it happens to Democrats. They are already in control of Congress, though that could change as they are they’re defending 24 of the 34 Senate seats up in 2016. And nowadays Donald Trump has much bigger chances for the win, then he had few months ago.

Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.


Still, as Republicans are defending 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016, Democrats are pleased with the fact that seven of those are in states that voted for Obama. Not once but twice. So, many think that Senate maps looks better and better for Democrats, and Hillary should win as well. But, will she indeed, or will Trump stop her?

Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democrats-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.


Anyway, there is plenty of options open but if you think any of the parties can form the undivided government, you have great odds on that happening at both Fairlay markets. So, what is your opinion on this?
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June 03, 2016, 03:44:29 PM
 #139

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 9?

Ten days ago it looked like Donald Trump could increase his lead ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, but that didn’t happen.

In fact, after having 0.2% lead from May 21 to May 25, Donald Trump lost it after that and Hillary started to gain the lead back. First with 1.0% lead, and then with the 1.5% lead in the last couple of days.

So, what will happen in the following seven days, till June 9? Many think that Hillary will continue to improve her lead in polling, so you have an option that she will even go over 3.0% lead.

Still, changes are easily made, so those of you who believe polls will go back to Trump’s side have great odds at Fairlay market. Anyway, you have five options so try to predict the right one at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-9/.
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June 06, 2016, 12:29:03 PM
 #140

Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July? Could California primary answer that question?

After four months we have come to the final day of the primaries (not counting the June 14 District of Columbia primary) that could answer another important question: Will Bernie Sanders finally drop out of the race? And this could be decided by the results of the California Primary that is one of the most popular Fairlay primary markets:

Who will win the California Democratic primary?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.


It is almost sure that even before the first vote is counted in California on Tuesday, the Hillary Clinton campaign and the TV networks will announce that she has clinched the nomination. Still, if he wins California, Bernie Sanders would be more inclined to follow through on his pledge to contest the nomination at the convention. Messy one, indeed.

So, after Tuesday results come in Sanders will have two options: whether to directly acknowledge Hillary’s nomination and drop out of the race or intensify his fight to the July convention in Philadelphia. And, no one knows what will happen while there are plenty different opinions: he should drop, he should stay, he should fight for specific platforms.

Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/.


Anyway, you surely have your opinion on what should Sanders do, and will he do it. And now you have also have an open market at Fairlay to predict will he drop out from the race before July. And hurry up to predict, because odds could change a lot after California primaries, or maybe Sanders could even drop out tomorrow and thus close the market.
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