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Author Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay  (Read 21354 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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March 14, 2016, 11:46:04 AM
 #81

When will Ethereum switch to Proof-of-Stake? May 2017? November 2017? Before, or even later?

Pi day (today, March 14), we get Homestead on mainnet, which is the second major version release of the Ethereum platform, that includes several protocol changes and a networking change which gives its users the ability to do further network upgrades. So, it is another big step for Ethereum after the Ethereum Frontier network launched on July 30 last year and developers began writing smart contracts and decentralized apps to deploy on the live Ethereum network.

After that, next phase in the Ethereum launch process should be Metropolis (that will open gates to the masses) and then really important Serenity phase. It is the last phase and has one key principle - to switch the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake - essentially reducing the power consumption of the Ethereum network. Protocol used for this is called Casper 'the friendly ghost’ because it is an adaptation of some of the principles of the GHOST (Greedy Heaviest-Observed Sub-Tree) protocol for proof-of-work consensus to proof-of-stake.



Anyway, if you want to read and learn more about Serenity and Casper, then check the Ethereum Blog so you can react better to the following markets regarding Ethereum’s change from Proof-of-Stake to Proof-of-Work. At the moment, it is certain that this change will happen but the date is still unknown. There were talks that it could be this summer but Proof-of-State phase probably won’t be completed before 2017. For those of you who believe it will be soon enough, there is market that Ethereum will switch to it before before May 1, and the second date is November 1 next year.

You can find both of your markets here:

Ethereum to switch to Proof-of-Stake before May 1, 2017:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ethereum-to-switch-to-proof-of-stake-before-may-1-2017/

Ethereum to switch to Proof-of-Stake before November 1, 2017:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ethereum-to-switch-to-proof-of-stake-before-november-1-2017/

So, what is your opinion on this change to Proof-of-Stake, and do you think it will be made soon? Also, which other Ethereum related markets would you like to see created in the future?
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FairlayBTCPredictions
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March 15, 2016, 01:25:11 PM
 #82

March Madness – Who will win the NCAA Basketball Championship?

Okay, it is March 15 and it is finally time for the March Madness when we all start to follow NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament. So, find and print your full bracket and enjoy next three weeks following college basketball. At Fairlay you can already find markets for all the opening games and you will be able to find the great odds as well till the final game scheduled for April 4: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/basketball/ncaa/match/.

But, as many of us don't follow college basketball from game to game, we like to place bets on the final winner and follow them from round to round, hopefully to the final. And of course, you can choose from the 68 teams involved. This year the first favorite for the title is team of Kansas Jayhawks which is the NCAA tournament's first overall seed after a 30-4 season and a Big 12 championship win, with offense that has averaged over 80 points per game this season.

Kansas is followed by North Carolina Tar Heels that is No.1 seed in East Region, and then we have Michigan State Spartans which won the Big Ten championship on Sunday before the selection show, so are team in a good form. Virginia Cavaliers and Kentucky Wildcats complete Top 6 favorites per odds but you probably have your own favorite, and considering all the potential surprises, to bet on ‘Other’ would also be a smart option, with great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ncaa-basketball-championship-2016-winner/.

All in all, March Madness starts tonight, so who is your favorite and have you already printed your full bracket?
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March 16, 2016, 11:12:18 AM
 #83

Next for the Republicans – Arizona and Utah on March 22, who will win them?

Another interesting Tuesday is behind us and it looks like everyone can be pleased but Marco Rubio who easily lost to Trump his home state of Florida and because of that decided to get out of the race. With 99 delegates won in Florida, Trump improved his lead ahead of Ted Cruz who was mostly second in countries that held primaries yesterday.

But, at the same time, a big question was opened as Trump lost Ohio to John Kasich who, by prevailing in his home state, probably stopped Trump from gaining Republican nomination before the party's convention in Cleveland. Still, there is enough delegates to be awarded and next Tuesday, March 22, it is time for Arizona primaries and Utah caucuses.

“There is great anger. Believe me, there is great anger,” Donald Trump said last night and because of this he is a huge favorite in Arizona which has a lot of angry and disaffected voters. Cruz's chances improved a bit last night as Rubio got out of the race so his votes should go to Cruz now, so if you think it could be enough for a win bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-arizona-republican-primary/.

At the same time, all the demographic analysis show that Utah is horrible state for Trump and Cruz should easily prevail in this one, especially after Rubio is out of the race. So, there is chance that Utah could be another country in which Trump's nomination is stopped but if you think that angry Trump could prevail even here, Fairlay offers you great odds:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-utah-republican-caucus/.

So, what is your opinion on the following primaries, and which other markets would you like to see created soon?
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March 16, 2016, 06:34:55 PM
 #84

Merrick Garland's SCOTUS nomination – Who will prevail, Senate or Obama?

After few weeks of discussion and analysis, President Barack Obama today finally nominated Chief Judge Merrick Garland for the Supreme Court, so now all is set for Obama’s fierce confirmation fight with Senate Republicans. Even with this being election year, this Supreme Court nomination will be widely discussed in the following months.

Garland currently serves as the top judge on the D.C. Circuit, and he's widely admired by Democrats and Republicans but that doesn’t change a lot. At least for now, as Republicans have been clear in prior weeks that they will block Obama's pick, regardless of qualifications, and that was today once again confirmed by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Republicans want the next president to be elected, before they even consider the hearing of the next SCOTUS nominee. So, the long battle between Obama and Senate is in front of us, while today Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, quickly backed up Senate Republicans saying they shouldn't give Barack Obama's pick a hearing.



So, Obama will need to convince at least 14 Republican senators to join Democrats to break an inevitable filibuster and at least five Republican senators to vote with Democrats for confirmation - but first somehow convince McConnell to back off from his absolutist position against even giving the nominee a hearing (for the first time since 1875).

All in all, nothing will be decided too soon and this will be a long battle as The White House is hoping to create some movement by this summer, but many expect that this battle will go all the way through November, with Democrats threatening to turn it into a major political issue before the elections so could Republicans give up before it hurts them?

Anyway, this will not only be a trending topic in the following days but also in the following months, so you already have an open market at Fairlay. Will Senate confirm Merrick Garland's SCOTUS nomination is the question, so be quick to place your bet because odds could easily go against your opinion. Find the SCOTUS odds right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-senate-confirm-merrick-garlands-scotus-nomination/.

What is your opinion on this SCOTUS nomination, and what other political markets would you like to see?
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March 17, 2016, 12:48:48 PM
 #85

Can Sanders stay in the race? It is time for Arizona, Idaho and Utah to decide.

After losing all five states two days ago, Sanders is confident better days are ahead of him, and our prediction markets confirm that as he is favorite in both Idaho and Utah, next caucuses scheduled for March 22. But next Tuesday surely won't change a lot as most delegates are given in Arizona primary, also on March 22, that is in favor of Hillary Clinton.

But, can Sanders make a surprise in Arizona? He has invested more than $1.5 million in ads in this country but at the same time Arizona is in terms of demographics and geography somewhat similar to Nevada where Clinton won in February, 53% to 47%. Still, if you think Sanders can make a surprise by winning Arizona, find great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-arizona-democratic-primary/.

Utah is similar to Arizona, but in the opposite ways as Clinton tries to make a surprise by winning it before current favorite Sanders. Some think current momentum will help Hillary to prevail but Sanders still has more support and caucuses go in his favor as well. But Utah it is far from decided, so odds are solid on either side of the market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-utah-democratic-caucus/.

As for Idaho, it should be the most one-sided country next Tuesday as Sanders is a big favorite to win it. He will be in Idaho Falls tomorrow morning for his "A Future To Believe In" rally, and though people think Hillary has a momentum, Sanders should prevail easily here. You don't agree? Then find great odds on Hillary's win and bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-idaho-democratic-caucus/.

What is your opinion on the following Democratic primaries, or do you think those of Republicans are easier to predict?
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March 21, 2016, 12:14:06 PM
 #86

House Of Cards – To be the Next President

SPOILER ALERT: There could be few spoilers for those of you who still haven't watched Season 4.

Okay, we thought that Season 4 will be the last season of the ‘House Of Cards’ series but in the meantime it’s been renewed for Season 5 and we also didn’t get the new President in Season 4. We did get similar campaign that we have in the real life but final election is left for the next season, with addition of the hugely popular candidate Will Conway.

Still, after watching Season 4, some are even scared with the things Frank Underwood and his wife Clare will do for Frank to become the next President. So, in the markets you now how at Fairlay, Frank Underwood is by far the biggest favorite for the next President. If you think Frank will be spectacular winner in the next election, place your bets here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/house-of-cards-to-be-the-next-president/.

Of course, you have even better odds if you think Frank will not be the next president. Second favorite is the new and very popular character Will Conway who leads in all the pools and at the moment only he can stop Frank. But you have great odds on ‘Other’ option as well, if you think Clare Underwood, Heather Dunbar on someone else could surprise.

So, what is your opinion? Will it all be about Frank or that Reddit theory ‘The deck is now complete after 4 seasons of 13 episodes; so the fifth will be about how the metaphoric house of cards come tumbling down.’ could be true after all?
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March 22, 2016, 01:03:44 PM
 #87

Who will be the Next Editor of US Vogue, when Anna Wintour retires?

With tragic day that brought us Brussels explosions, and that will be followed with new set of US primaries, it is time to mind off a bit with market that is concerned with one light, but at the same time really important, topic: the Next Editor of US Vogue.

It is hard to find more influence Editor-in-Chief that it is Anna Wintour in US Vogue, a position she has held since 1988. She is one of the most important figures in the fashion world but at the same time person whose retirement is expected for years back. In fact, even in 2008 we already had press headlines ‘Is Anna Wintour Ready to Retire?’.

But, another interesting topic is who will take over Vogue after her retirement? In Fairlay markets you have on offer seven names with ‘Other’ option opened if you have someone else in mind. And first favorite at the moment is Glenda Bailey who has spent the last 15 years as the editor of Harper’s Bazaar.

Bailey is followed by Amy Astley, current editor-in-chief of Teen Vogue, and therefore a popular choice. She is given same chances as Lucy Yeomans who was previously the editor of Harper’s Bazaar and now edits the popular fashion website Net-a-Porter.

They are followed by few more popular names in the fashion world, so you (or at least your partner) could have positive opinion on some of them so you can catch great odds at Fairlay. But first, we all have to wait for Anna Wintour to get into the retirement and thus this market will be open till January 1, 2019. Here are your odds:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-editor-of-us-vogue/.
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March 23, 2016, 10:54:25 AM
 #88

Trump won Arizona but will he prevail in Wisconsin?

Yesterday Trump won Arizona and its 58 delegates, while Cruz scored a victory in Utah and appeared poised to win all of its 40 delegates by winning more than 50 percent of the vote there. So now Trump has at least 739 delegates, nearly 60 percent of the total he needs, but Ted Cruz is still confident he is able to stop him.

Next on the schedule for Republicans is Wisconsin primary on April 5, before they move to New York on April 19. Cruz will campaign in Wisconsin for three straight days, starting Wednesday, while he was earlier today also endorsed by Jeb Bush. But, it is the question does this come too late in their attempts to stop Trump.

When it comes to Wisconsin, Trump is still rather favorite to prevail, and the fact that John Kasich is still in race could help his as well as Kasich's votes would surely go into Cruz's favor. But, it is far from decided as Wisconsin is open primary so new voters can register even on election day.

Still, people think that Cruz is undervalued and his early campaign could help him as well. On the other side, opinions are that Brussels attacks will help Trump. Anyway, being the only Republican primary in the next few weeks, Wisconsin will get a lot of attention so you can already find Fairlay markets and place your bets here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-republican-primary/.

And, what are your opinions on the latests and following primaries, and which one would you like to see created?
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March 23, 2016, 03:53:02 PM
 #89

Will Sanders win all three of Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington?

Last night Sanders lost Arizona to Hillary but he easily prevailed in both Utah and Idaho, other two states that voted yesterday. They both held caucuses, so it was once again shown that this format favors the Vermont senator. Because of this he will be a huge favorite in all three states that vote in caucuses on Saturday: Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington.

Even Hillary’s team admitted that Sanders will be a huge favorite next weekend but they think that even a string of victories by Sanders over the next few weeks would have little impact on Clinton’s position in the race. And, at the moment, it is almost sure that Sanders will easily close Washington and Alaska caucuses.

But, he is not such a superb favorite in Hawaii caucuses, though even here he is a rather big one and wins in Utah and Idaho are surely going to help him. So, you now have an open market on whether Sanders will win all three caucuses held on Saturday, with great odds if you think that Clinton is able to stop him even in one of the states. Bet here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/sanders-to-win-alaska-hawaii-and-washington/.

So, what is your opinion on following Democrats' caucuses, and what other markets would you like to see created?
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March 24, 2016, 04:31:50 PM
 #90

Is Dilma Rousseff facing her last weeks as the president of Brazil?

At the start of the year there was a lot of talk about Dilma Rousseff and thousands of protesters who took to the streets across Brazil as Dilma's government struggled to lift the economy from its most severe crisis in decades. Well, in few months nothing have changed. In fact, The Economist’s newest South American cover is going hugely against her:



So, is is her time to go? It is not on her to decide anymore, as on March 18th Brazil’s congressmen voted to commence impeachment proceedings against the country’s embattled president.  Few phases are to be followed as her future will be decided and what is to follow is nicely explained by The Economist:

Ms Rousseff first needs to convince at least 172 lower-house legislators out of 513 to back her. She has ten congressional sessions, or two or three weeks, to present her defence to a special commission. This body then has five sessions to issue a recommendation to the full house, which must vote on it within 48 hours. If Ms Rousseff’s foes fall short of 342 votes, the case is buried. Should they succeed, senators must then approve, by an absolute majority of 41 out of 81, to accept the lower-house motion. If they do, a trial of up to 180 days begins, presided over by the chief justice of the Supreme Court. During this period, Ms Rousseff steps down and her vice-president, Michel Temer, temporarily takes her place. If at least 54 senators subsequently vote to remove her, Mr Temer would probably serve out the rest of the term, which ends in 2018.

Will Dilma Rousseff remain the president of Brazil through 2016? Probably not. At the moment, 68% of Brazilians say they favor impeachment, so by the end of the April Dilma Rousseff could be without a job. Still, if you think that she will be the president of Brazil till the end of year you have great odds on that at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/dilma-rousseff-to-remain-president-of-brazil-through-2016/.

What is your opinion on this, and what other markets regarding world politics would you like to see created?
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March 25, 2016, 01:17:49 PM
 #91

University Boat Race – Cambridge or Oxford? And by what distance?

Following Sunday, March 27 will give us 162nd annual Univeristy Boat Race between Cambridge and Oxford. Men's race is scheduled for 16:10 on the River Thames that will have quarter of a million people on its banks watching this popular race. Millions will also watch it live on televsion (coverage on BBC2 begins at 14:30), as the light blues of Cambridge will try to end Oxford’s three year domination of the event.

Even though Oxford won the last three races, Cambridge is a favorite in this one as Oxford crew has undergone huge changes this year, with Constantine Louloudis, who captained the dark blues to four wins in the last five years, now gone, and only Jamie Cook returning. In contrast, Cambridge sees four of last year's squad returning, and have added the Great Britain’s oarsman Lance Tredell.

But it is far from decided and how tight the races have been trough the years shows the fact that Cambridge have won the race 81 times, while Oxford have secured the bragging rights on 79 occasions. There was a dead heat in 1877, and you have incredibly high odds if you think that dead heat could occur once again this year. So, either you prefer Oxford or Cambridge, you don’t want to miss the chance to place your bet:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-2016-mens-boat-race-winner/.

Some do think that Oxford could win as the last year winner has advantage, though history doesn’t prove that, or their could win the coin toss and then they can choose their preferred station. Other think that the heavier boat has advantage and this year Cambridge crew is around 11kg heavier than the Oxford crew. And for you who are more in details, you also have markets on the winning distance:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-2016-mens-boat-race-winning-distance/.

So, who do you prefer and are there some other rowing events for which you would like to have created markets?
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March 28, 2016, 12:46:39 PM
 #92

Wisconsin Democratic Primary – Can Sanders continue his good run?

After he won all three caucuses held on Saturday, Bernie Sanders wants to follow those wins with the win at the next Democratic primary that is in Wisconsin on Tuesday, April 5. But, at the same time, Hillary Clinton will want to stop his series of wins as they will follow Wisconsin with caucuses in Wyoming where Sanders is a huge favorite.

Even though Hillary leads at Wisconsin polls, huge amount of people voting in Wisconsin should favor Sanders as there is currently some kind of a Bernie mania, especially among students that tend to vote for Sanders. Wisconsin is also an open primary that favor Sanders more than the close one does, though not as much as caucuses favor him.

The 2008 electorate in Wisconsin was 87 percent white so, considering the high share of white men as compared to black voters, it is also one of the places Sanders should have good chances. But polls still give Hillary nice chances, and she is about to start her campaign there, so Wisconsin primary could be a great market. Place your bets now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-democratic-primary/.

And you already have on offer even more interesting Wisconsin Republican primary that has been opened with Trump as a favorite but now Ted Cruz is one with the bigger chances to prevail. Still, odds on both sides are rather good, with the great ones if you think John Kasich could win there, so don't miss to place your bet if you already didn't:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-republican-primary/.

So, what are your opinions on the Wisconsin primaries, and what others that will follow would you like to see created?
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March 31, 2016, 03:01:40 PM
 #93

Who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron?

With voting on both UK Referendum and the next London Mayor (you can already find these markets in Fairlay's UK Politics section: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/uk-politics/all/), things in London got even worse in recent days as the Prime Minister David Cameron has been convening what he calls Cabinet meetings from which ministers favoring Brexit have been excluded and prevented from seeing papers.

At the same time, some political writers have been asking the question ‘Does David Cameron have to quit as Prime Minister after UK Referendum – regardless of the result?’ So, things are getting interesting and it is probably the right time to open the market on who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron, though in the worst case this market will be resolved only with the next UK general election that is due to be held on 7 May, 2020.

But this market could be resolved much earlier if Cameron quits and so there are already talks who could his successor be. At the same time there are talks about the next leader of the Conservative party as many think that leadership election of this party could be held right after the UK Referendum. So, this leadership election could in a part decide who will be the first favorite for the next Prime Minister and at the moment that is Boris Johnson.

Current London Mayor is seen as a person who is able to re-establish the UK as strong voice. After Johnson, second person that is seen amongst the favorites for the next Prime Minister is George Osborne. But, he is also seen as a boring and cold personality. Theresa May is seen as the third favorite to become the next Tory leader and she is at the same time the fourth favorite to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Still, if the Conservative party develops more problems, this could open a chance for Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour Party, to become the next Prime Minister and because of this he is a third favorite overall. Anyway, when it comes to the UK politics, interesting months are ahead of us and they could also decide who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron. Anyway, it is not so soon to place your bets at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-prime-minister-after-david-cameron/.

So, what is your opinion about these questions, and what other UK Politics markets would you like to bet on?
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April 04, 2016, 04:01:05 PM
 #94

Official England Euro 2016 Song Artist – Stormzy or Louis Tomlinson?

England national football team will hardly ever have a better official song than it did with ‘Three Lions’ in 1996. Still, every big football tournament (though, for some reason, no official song released in 2010) produces one official and couple of unofficial songs, and these days we expect the confirmation of the artist who will record one for Euro 2016.

At the moment, it is still far from certain who will record this one but there are a lot of talks that it should be either Grime MC Stormzy or One Direction's Louis Tomlinson. Well-known pop star and football fan Tomlinson is the second favorite, as Stormzy became the first favorite with the sayings that fans have been backing him with their own money.

These two are followed by Tinie Tempah and Kaiser Chiefs, while you have great odds if you think any other artist could record England official song. Anyway, Football's (Not) Coming Home but you can still make money if you guess right whose song you’ll be listening to when England starts playing Euro 2016 matches, so place your bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/official-england-euro-2016-song-artist/.

So, who is your favorite for this market, and what other interesting Euro 2016 markets would you like to see created?
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April 05, 2016, 02:55:43 PM
 #95

BAFTA TV Awards – Who will win them for Best Actor, Actress, Drama, Soap, Entertainment Programme?

Season of movie and music awards is behind us, so for those who love those kinds of ceremonies, with awards and nominations, BAFTA TV Awards is a popular one at the moment. Nominations were announced last week and ceremony will be held on May 8, so you already have at Fairlay markets offer some of the most popular categories.

Historical drama “Wolf Hall” leads the nomination race as this miniseries took four nominations, and is the first favorite for the Best Drama Series. “Humans”, science fiction television series, is the second favorite in this category, while other two nominations are “No Offence” and “The Last Panthers” that is given really small chances for an award.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Drama Series: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-drama-series/.

Mark Rylance, who two months ago won an Oscar for “Bridge of Spies“, is the first favorite for the Best Actor Award, as he is another “Wolf Hall” nomination. Second favorite is the last year winner, Idris Elba, for his role in “Luther”, while other two nominations are Stephen Graham for “This Is England '90“ and Ben Whishaw for “London Spy“.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Actor: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-actor/.

“Wolf Hall” also has a nomination for the Best Actress Award as Claire Foy received one, though she is not the first favorite.  Biggest chances for the Best Actress Award are given to Sheridan Smith for “The C-Word“ and Suranne Jones for “Doctor Foster“, while Ruth Madeley for “Don’t Take My Baby“ is given the smallest chances.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Actress: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-actress/.

At the moment, biggest favorite in any of the categories is “Adele at the BBC”, for the Best Entertainment Programme Award. She could be challenged by “Strictly Come Dancing”, another BBC1 programme, while other two nominations are for “Britain’s Got Talent”, and “TFI Friday anniversary special” that is given almost no chances for award.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Entertainment Programme: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-entertainment-programme/.

Always interesting category is that one for the Best Soap and Continuing Drama Award. For now, the first favorite to take the award is Coronation Street, though good chances for the win are also given to “EastEnders“. Other two nominations, though with the rather small chances for the win, are given to “Emmerdale“ and “Holby City“.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Soap and Continuing Drama: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-soap-and-continuing-drama/.

All in all, you have plenty of markets to place your bets on, and surely some of your favorite shows have received nominations, and you can also note if you want to see markets for some others categories created as well.
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April 06, 2016, 12:16:42 PM
 #96

Next Presidential primaries – Will Clinton and Trump close New York?

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump lost their Wisconsin primaries last night, so now they can completely move their focuses to New York primaries that are scheduled for Tuesday, April 19. At the same time, after last night’s wins, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz can hope to achieve more in New York then they were about to before good Wisconsin results.

Schedule of primaries goes even more in favor to Bernie Sanders as Wyoming Democratic caucuses are scheduled for the following Saturday, April 9, and he will almost surely prevail there. Wyoming is the least populated state with white conservatives that mostly vote for Bernie, while he won previous caucuses and will surely win one is Wyoming as well.

So, New York primary will be as important as one primary gets. Even with Bernie’s momentum, Hillary is still favorite to win New York (recent polls go 53%-43% in her favor, with 4% undecided), though Sanders chances are getting bigger from day to day. Anyway, New York primary could be most important moment of the campaign so bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-york-democratic-primary/.

On the other side, Donald Trump is a huge favorite to win New York as Ted Cruz and John Kasich will probably divide anti-Trump suppoter’s votes (last polls have Trump at 52%, Kasich at 21%, Cruz at 17%). Still, by losing Wisconsin, Donald Trump is getting stopped from securing his nomination and gets frustrated as they are going towards convention fight.

Nice victory for Ted Cruz in Wisconsin puts additional pressure on Trump in his home state primaries as he now wants to win big in New York, as just win is no good for him. All in all, Trump is still a huge favorite for winning New York but if you think he could lost support in the next two weeks, then you have great odds on both Kasich and Cruz. Bet now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-york-republican-primary/.

What are your opinions on the New York primaries, and what other primary markets would you like to have on offer?
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April 07, 2016, 11:42:47 AM
 #97

Will woman be the next U.N. Secretary-General?

At the start of December we already talked about the election for the next U.N. Secretary-General but these days it once again became the trending topic as Guardian announced that UN will hold Secretary-General job hustings for first time ever, so contenders will explain ideals and intentions to general assembly and hold public debates in New York and London.

These public debates will surely be interesting as for the UN’s first 70 year, the Secretary-General was chosen behind closed doors by the major powers on the security council, and only then presented to the general assembly for approval. Date of final election is still not confirmed, as current holder Ban Ki-moon prepares to step down at the end of this year.

So far eight candidates have declared their bids and the last one is Helen Clark, former Prime Minister of New Zealand and current Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. With her nomination, question of the next Secretary-General being a woman was once again opened as all the Secretary-Generals to date have been men.

A the moment there is a strong push to select a woman this timeand at the moment we have four of them among the official candidates. But, more candidates are about to bid, among which are the Chilean president, Michelle Bachelet, and in recent weeks there has been a growing buzz around the idea that the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, could bid as well.

With some strong woman already declaring their bids, and some even stronger about to bid, it is not a surprise that Fairlay has market placed around 70% for the woman be the next U.N. Secretary-General. But, what is your opinion on this? You can use following public debates to form one, or bet right now, having great odds if you think men are in favor:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general/.
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April 11, 2016, 12:09:53 PM
 #98

How many delegates will Trump win? More than 1,200? Less than 1,150?

These days, US Politics is mostly about the number of delegates so they really deserve its own market to which you can place predictions as we wait for the New York Primaries scheduled for the next Tuesday, April 19. Of course, when it comes to the number of delegates, it is mostly about those Donald Trump needs to seal the Republican nomination.

So, let's get straight to numbers. The magic number of delegates needed to seal the Republican nomination is 1,237. At the moment, Donald Trump has 743 of them (Ted Cruz is at 545), and we have 854 delegates remaining.

By FiveThirtyEight estimations, Trump is currently at 92% of target (you can use their great graphics for delegate targets: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/), so with this, the first option in this market is that he will win 1,201 or more delegates and for it the most chances are given (around 43% at the moment).

Still, this market is far from decided as most people think that Trump won't seal the nomination after primaries, and that he could easily go under 1,200 delegates, staying in the range of 1,151 - 1200 that is second option in the market.

But, if Donald Trump starts to lose his momentum with the April primaries, he could even give up before the closing June primaries and with momentum shifting to Ted Cruz, Trump could finish these primaries with 1,150 or less delegates. That is the third option in this ' How many delegates will Trump win?' market that you can find at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-many-delegates-will-trump-win/.

What is your opinion on this market? Are you sure in some of the options and do you think he will seal the nomination?
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April 12, 2016, 02:59:50 PM
 #99

Will Usain Bolt and Mo Farah win all the gold medals at Olympics’ 100m, 200m, 5000m, and 10000m events?

We are left with only 115 day till Olympics in Rio so it is time to start creating and betting on more Olympics markets. Since January, you had open market for a country that wins most gold medals in Rio (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals/), with USA Olympics team having the most chances.

But now it is time to add some individual markets and it is best to start with Usain Bolt and Mo Farah as they are often talked about as athletes that could once again be Olympic heroes of their states. So, can both of them win both gold medals in their favorite events or will someone manage to stop at least one, or even both of them, in August in Rio?

Usain Bolt, being the first man to hold both the 100m and 200m world records since fully automatic time measurements became mandatory in 1977, is regarded as the fastest person ever timed, so it will be a rather surprise if he doesn’t confirm his domination in Rio, as he won both 100m and 200m at both Beijing 2008 and London 2012 Olympics.

Usain Bolt to win the 100m and 200m gold medals: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/usain-bolt-to-win-the-100m-and-200m-gold-medals/.

Mo Farah is less popular than Bolt but he is a superb distance runner, and he was a gold medalist in both 5000m and 10,000m at London 2012. Completing that double again at 2015 World Championships in Athletics, he became the second man in history to win long-distance doubles at successive Olympics and World Championships. It is time for Rio.

Mo Farah to win the 5000m and 10000m gold medals: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mo-farah-to-win-the-5000m-and-10000m-gold-medals/.

So, what are your opinions on their gold medals chase and which other Olympics markets would you like to see created?
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April 13, 2016, 05:21:13 PM
 #100

What will be the Bitcoin Price 30 days after the Block Halving?

We are left with 89 days till The Block Halving (in mid July, the amount of new bitcoins awarded to bitcoin miners will drop from 3,600 BTC per day to 1,800 BTC per day, and with that, the annual increase in the bitcoin money supply will drop from 9.17% to 4.09%), so its effect on the bitcoin price is these days the trending topic in the bitcoin community.

There are plenty of opinions regarding this effect. Most are sure that the price will increase: they differ from those who think that it will happen in the following weeks, to those who think it will happen only weeks or even months after the halving is done. There are also those who think halving is already influencing the price and it would be lower without it.

On the other side, there are some who think that increase in price won’t happen, if fact, they are even sure that it will go down, and some think that other factors will influence the price more than halving alone. Anyway, all these opinions show that it is hard to predict right how will the Bitcoin price change in the following months, and months after halving.

As most of you have own opinions on this matter, you now have on offer open prediction market at Fairlay, so you can earn additional bitcoins if you guess right the price of Bitcoin 30 days after the halving, but also show your opinion. You have four options on offer. From $400 or less, to $400,01 - $450; and $450,01 - $500, and one being $500,01 or higher:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/.

So, what is your opinion on the Bitcoin price (a month) after the halving? In which range will it be in that moment?
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