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Author Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay  (Read 21370 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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November 27, 2015, 04:00:53 PM
 #21

One of the following elections that is also popular these days is the French presidential election scheduled for April and May of 2017. Latest pools are showing that Sarkozy starts to lose some of the support that goes to Marine Le Pen, Manuel Valls, but also to Alain Juppe. Francois Hollande is also not without the chances so the next French presidential election is going to be really even one. Here is the current market: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/french-election-next-president/.
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FairlayBTCPredictions
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November 30, 2015, 03:53:15 PM
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One of the topics that is often emerging is that about the relationship between Russia and Bitcoin. It was often talked that Bitcoin was banned in Russia but, though not being widely accepted, it was never criminalised. So, it is still safe to be a crypto enthusiasts in Russia but sadly it not sure for how long.

In a recent interview for the CoinDesk, deputy finance minister Alexey Moiseev told that the Ministry was working on a draft law that would seek to punish those converting cryptocurrencies into the ruble with up to four years in prison. That draft is now being reviewed by the Cabinet, and will then be submitted to the Russia's Parliament for final approval.

As Bitcoin could be criminalised in Russia and this often being talked about, you now have an open market about this topic: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-to-be-outlawed-in-russia-in-2016-1/. So, do you think that Bitcoin will be outlawed in Russia in 2016 or do you think that even in this country it has a positive future?
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December 01, 2015, 01:45:05 PM
 #23

"On Syria, there is no great national benefit for Russia in Assad remaining indefinitely in office, and there is no great national benefit for the U.S. in forcing him to quit instantly, and there is also a shared interest in avoiding a major U.S.-Russia collision. I may be naive but I think this is one of those situations in which the stakes are not that dramatic," said few days ago for Politico Zbigniew Brzezinski.

So, some think that situation about Bashar al-Assad is not so dramatic and that he should stay the president of Syria for the time being, with the next presidential election scheduled for 2021 (he was elected in June last year). But others think that the situation with ISIS is not going in his favor so he won't stay for long as the head of the country. Because of this, you now have open market on whether Bashar al-Assad will remain the president of Syria through 2016: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bashar-al-assad-to-remain-the-president-of-syria-through-2016/

What are your opinions on this market? Do you think that both Russia and US will agree to keep him as president, or is one year more just too much for Assad? And, do you have any suggestions when it comes to the markets about the world politics?
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December 02, 2015, 07:32:53 PM
 #24

A lot of US Presidential Election markets has been created  but what about the US Senate election? It will also be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, with Democrats expected to have 10 seats up for election, while Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

So, it will be interesting to see can Republicans keep the majority in Senate they gained in the previous election, or can Hillary influence Democrats to gain back the majority in Senate. If you have an opinion who will have the majority after the next election, you have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-keep-a-senate-majority-after-the-2016-election/.

And what are you other opinions about the US Election, and are there some other markets you would like to see open?
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December 03, 2015, 01:37:16 PM
 #25

One of the interesting election in 2016 will be that for the next United Nations Secretary-General that will determine who will succeed Ban Ki-moon whose term will conclude on 31 December 2016. Because of the informal regional rotation scheme, many commentators speculate that the next UN Secretary-General will come from the Eastern European Group, as that region has never produced a Secretary-General.

But even more talked topic is that that raises the question of the next UN Secretary-General for the first time being a woman. For now, more of the potential candidates talked about are women, like Dalia Grybauskaite, Dilma Rousseff, or even Angela Merkel. If you also believe that the next Secretary-General will be a woman, you now have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.

So, what is your opinion about this market, and do you believe that the winner of this election will be also from the Eastern European Group?
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December 04, 2015, 03:09:28 PM
 #26

'Russia Accuses Turkey of Smuggling ISIS Oil. Turkey Replies: No, You Are.'

Some think that we have a lot of child's play these days between Russia and Turkey, but other think that things could get even more serious. For now, Turkish President Erdogan was accused that he and his family are involved in this criminal business, so he is in a hard situation right now and thus here is the market on whether he will remain the president of Turkey through 2016, even being elected last year: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/erdogan-to-remain-the-president-of-turkey-through-2016-2/.

Other talking topic is about Turkey and NATO, and will Turkey call a NATO Article four consultation once again, after she already did that in July. In the six decades since NATO’s creation, Article 4 has been invoked only five times, three of which were by Turkey. So, if you think that there are chances that Turkey will invoke Article 4 once again before March 1, here is a market for you: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/turkey-to-invoke-natos-article-4-before-march-1-2016-1/.

So, what are your opinions on these markets and do you have suggestions for other markets when it comes to the current situation between Turkey and Russia?
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December 07, 2015, 05:22:19 PM
 #27

As he comes into his final 13 months as President, Obama is once again under the pressure to close Guantanamo Bay prison. He has long held a deep personal conviction on the issue, dating back to his days as a senator. He has argued repeatedly that the prison at Guantanamo provides fodder for extremist propaganda, damages relations with allies, and violates America’s values.

But even after so many years, he did not close it, though since Obama took office, the administration has gradually cut the number of detainees by more than half, from 242 to 112. But at the same time, more than 50 detainees have been cleared for release for years because they pose no danger, yet have remained locked away in cages in some sort of legal limbo.

Nowadays, experts are divided over whether Obama actually has the constitutional authority to take action on Guantanamo, and whether he will wait for election to pass to do that. Anyway, it is a popular topic so now you have an open market on it https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/obama-to-close-guantanamo-before-leaving-office/ and please express your opinions on this market and suggest additional markets on US Politics.
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December 08, 2015, 04:38:26 PM
 #28

Next year will be another important year when it comes to the marijuana legalization in USA, as Californians will probably once again weigh in on this issue. In 2010, Proposition 19 would have made this state the first in the country to legalize marijuana, but voters defeated the measure by a 53.5-46.5 margin.

But, from then on four other states (Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Alaska) have gone on to legalize cannabis, so many suspect California is ready to do likewise. And it could be really important voting as California represents one of the world’s largest economies all on its own, so if cannabis is legalized, it will have a dramatic effect across the country.

Recently, it is a really popular topic as, in California's race to legitimize recreational marijuana, at least 10 legalization initiatives are vying to appear on the state’s November 2016 ballot. So, if you have your own opinion you have now open market on this issue as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.
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December 08, 2015, 05:35:48 PM
 #29

The Bitcoin community doesn't really care when stuff like Blythe Masters going on some mainstream magazine talking about the blockchain in the cover because anyone that consider himself part of the Bitcoin community and wants a good outcome for Bitcoin considers this an enemy. In any case, all publicity is good so let them do their blockchain technology promoting thing.

FairlayBTCPredictions
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December 09, 2015, 11:49:12 AM
 #30

In any case, all publicity is good so let them do their blockchain technology promoting thing.

And as we talk about publicity... There was rarely a headline for the Bitcoin community as interesting as WIRED's 'Bitcoin’s Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably This Unknown Australian Genius'. So, do you think that Craig Steven Wright is really Satoshi Nakamoto, or was he a member of the team that created Bitcoin? Or all of it is an elaborate hoax?

Anyway, you surely have your opinion and you have also a chance to earn from it on the open market 'Is Craig Steven Wright Satoshi Nakamoto?' So, don't miss it: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/is-craig-steven-wright-satoshi-nakamoto/
 

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December 10, 2015, 12:57:48 PM
 #31

In the last few days Donald Trump once again refused to close the door to a third-party presidential bid as he he is not being treated well by the GOP 'establishment'. "A new poll indicates that 68% of my supporters would vote for me if I departed the GOP & ran as an independent," he tweeted two days ago, so as pledges and promises mean nothing to him, his supporters turn a blind eyev on that.

With this, Trump is tacitly saying that he will make Hillary win, if he doesn’t get what he wants. Because of this topic being popular once again, you now have an open market on Will Donald Trump be a third party presidential candidate in 2016 and odds on him deciding so are really good: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/donald-trump-to-be-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-in-2016/.

So, what do you think about this? Will Donald Trump break his pledge, leave the list of Republican presidential candidates and runs as an independent/third-party candidate at the 2016 Presidential Election?
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December 11, 2015, 01:34:13 PM
 #32

In June this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said a woman will be featured on a redesigned $10 bill in 2020 - the 100th anniversary of the Constitution's 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote.

Since then there was a lot of speculation who deserves to be the first woman on U.S. paper currency since Martha Washington, who was on the $1 Silver Certificate between 1891 and 1896. And though this $10 bill will appear in 2020, the announcement should be made in the following weeks.

So, who is your favorite for the Woman that will be on a new $10 bill? Eleanor Roosevelt, Harriet Tubman, or someone else? Hurry up, as the announcement could be made any day now: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/which-woman-will-be-on-a-new-10-bill/.
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December 14, 2015, 04:11:32 PM
 #33

Four days ago, Golden Globes 2016 nominations list was revealed and thus here are the markets for the seven main categories: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/golden-globes/all/

One of the strange nominations was one that put The Martian in the category of Best Picture: Musical or Comedy. So, though The Martian has biggest chances to win it (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-picture-musical-or-comedy/), it is really unusual to see this movie among comedies.

In the category of the Best Picture: Drama, by far the biggest favorite is 'Spotlight' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-picture-drama/), while its director Thomas McCarthy is the second favorite for the Best Director award, behind Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, director of 'The Revenant' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-director/).

The biggest favorite among the all categories is Leo DiCaprio for the Best Actor: Drama , for his role in 'The Revenant' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actor-drama/), while Matt Damon should win the Best Actor: Musical or Comedy for 'The Martian', another strange award this movie could get (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actor-musical-or-comedy/).

When it comes to the ladies, Brie Larson in 'Room' is the first option when it comes to the Best Actress: Drama (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actress-drama/), while Jennifer Lawrence in the first favorite for the Best Actress: Musical or Comedy, though Amy Schumer could win this award as well, for her role in 'Trainwreck' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actress-musical-or-comedy/).

Anyway, there is a lot of the other nominees so you can choose other bets as well, and you can also suggest if you want to see some other markets created when it comes to the Golden Globe Awards.
FairlayBTCPredictions
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December 15, 2015, 04:11:20 PM
 #34

Most political analysts believe it is an almost certainty that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic party’s presidential candidate in 2016, so that leaves the question open for who her running mate will be. And it is even possible for Bill Clinton to be his wife’s running mate.

Still, in October she said that if she wins her party's nomination, then she would seriously consider making Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro her running mate. At 40 years old, Castro is relatively young, and he’s also Hispanic, so it not a surprise that he is at the moment favorite for the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-nominee/. But, it is far from decided so you have options like Tim Kaine, Martin O'Malley, Cory Booker, or any other open as well.

It is even more open when it comes to the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee as it is far from sure who will be a Presidential Nominee. Anyway, there is an opinion that the Republican presidential nominee will need a woman by his side to run against Hillary Clinton. Thus, Carly Fiorina has a minimal lead at the moment, while being followed by John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Nikki Haley.

There is still a lot of factors for these markets and that's making them even more interesting as odds are really good. What are your opinions on them and do you have any other suggestions for the US Presidential Election markets? Those already created you can find here: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/.

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December 16, 2015, 03:06:45 PM
 #35

One of the most popular awards ceremonies in music industry is that of Annual Grammy Awards, and the 2016 Grammy Awards ceremony will be held on Monday, February 15, 2016 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Ten days ago, nominations were released, and now you can bet on the main three categories. And please suggest if you would like to see more markets created for Grammys or any other Awards ceremonies.

Album of the Year will probably be decided between '1989' by Taylor Swift and 'To Pimp A Butterfly' by Kendrick Lemar. Though, your favorite could be 'Beauty Behind The Madness' by The Weekend so you can find great odds at that one here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-album-of-the-year/.

The Weekend is also the third favorite when it comes to the Record Of The Year for 'Can't Feel My Face' but once again without big chances. By far the biggest favorite is 'Uptown Funk' by Mark Ronson Ft. Bruno Mars, and even 'Blank Space' by Taylor Swift has rather small chances. If you are also sure that 'Uptown Funk' will win Grammys you can bet here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-record-of-the-year/.

Meghan Trainor is a favorite for the always popular New Artist award but it could be one of the most interesting categories as James Bay and Sam Hunt also have good chances. And if you think that even Courtney Barnett or Tori Kelly could win it, you can place bets on them as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-new-artist/.
 
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December 17, 2015, 03:58:05 PM
 #36

One of the popular topics regarding US Presidential Election is How much will Donald Trump's campaign cost? In August this year Trump said he's prepared to spend $1 billion on his campaign if necessary, and he does not have to worry about pleasing lobbyists like other candidates because his race is self-funded.

Still, MSNBC's Ari Melber reported in October that Trump has only spent about $2 million till that moment on his campaign, and that it is far less than his top-tier rivals on both sides of the aisle:



So, what do you think total of Trump's campaign costs will be? And this includes spendings on both his primaries and general election campaigns. It will surely be far from that $1 billion but will it stay under $25 million or be much bigger, even more than $150 milllion? Find your odds on seven different options here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-much-will-donald-trumps-campaign-cost-1/.
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December 18, 2015, 01:59:35 PM
 #37

It is almost certain that Leo Messi will win the FIFA Ballon d'Or award for the best football player of the year, so now the only question is can he add to it FIFA Puskas Award as well. This award is given to the player who have scored the most aesthetically significant, or "most beautiful", goal of the year.

That one Leo Messi scored against Athletic Bilbao is a thing of a beauty and he is surely the biggest favorite but two others left in competition are also superb. One is Alessandro Florenzi from Roma who scored it against Barcelona and other one Brazilian Wendell Lira.

Anyway, you can watch and vote for all the three goals HERE but what is more important, you can place your bets at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/fifa-puskas-award-winner/. FIFA Ballon d’Or 2015 Gala will be held on 11 January next year.
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December 21, 2015, 02:52:49 PM
 #38

Donald Trump is still a trending topic when it comes to the 2016 US Presidential Election. You already have open markets How much will Trump's campaign cost? and Will Trump to be a third party presidential candidate in 2016?, but now you have another market on whether people will actually trust him.

In US Presidential Election markets you can bet that he will be next President, that he will be Republican nominee, or even that he will win Iowa Caucus or New Hampshire Primary but now you can make even better bet by answering the questions Will Donald Trump win any Republican primaries or caucuses?

At the moment, at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-trump-win-any-republican-primaries-or-caucuses/ Trump has rather high chances to do this but a lot of people think that if he doesn't win Iowa Caucus or New Hampshire Primary, he will hardly win any after that. If you have that opinion as well, then you have great offer at the moment. And, of course, like always, you can suggest other markets that you would like to bet on.
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December 23, 2015, 12:36:03 PM
 #39

After the Spanish general election was held on Sunday, trending topic in European politics these days is Who will be the next Spanish prime minister? At the moment, marathon political talks are expected before government can be formed but leftwing parties’ balance of power puts current prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s future in doubt.

Mariano Rajoy, leader of the the conservative People’s party, is still the first option for the next PM but without such a big chances as he had before Sunday. Especially as a Socialist-led coalition is shaping up to be the most likely to rule Spain. And with this Spain’s Socialist party leader Pedro Sanchez has good chances to become the next prime minister.

At Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister/ you have great odds if you think a third person will be the next PM of Spain. Also, Anti-austerity party Podemos said it would block any attempt by Rajoy to form a government. But Ciudadanos’s leader, Albert Rivera, said his party would abstain from the confidence vote to allow the PP to form a minority government.

All in all, in the coming weeks King Felipe VI will reach out to all parties to hear their positions and name the party that will have the chance to try and form a government. If the candidate fails to obtain an absolute majority, the king must put forward a new candidate. If no government is formed within two months, new elections must be held.

So, what is you opinion and who do you favor to the be the next Spanish prime minister?
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January 05, 2016, 04:49:39 PM
 #40

Rahm Emanuel to resign as Chicago mayor by April 15 – YES or NO?

On November 24, agruesome video of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald's fatal shooting at the hands of a Chicago police officer was released by the city’s police department on, more than a year after the shooting took place. Ever since then it was a trending topic, as well with the calls for the resignation of Rahm Emanuel, the Chicago mayor and former Obama chief of staff.

And, in late December, protesting intensified after officers fatally shot a man and a woman, one of whom is believed to have been mentally ill, in the city’s West Side. So much that Mayor Rahm Emanuel cut short a family vacation this past week and returned to a city in crisis with people who share opinions like: “Oh, it’s personal, all right. We’re making it personal.”

The protests reflect frustration with chronic problems Emanuel inherited in Chicago, a city long plagued by police brutality, failing schools, rampant gang violence and dire ­finances. But as Emanuel enters his second term, critics say he has deepened distrust in City Hall through a string of scandals affecting his administration, a lack of transparency and his abrasive personal style.

Although Emanuel built a reputation in Washington as a crisis manager and consummate fixer for two presidents, critics and friends alike say it remains unclear how, or whether, he will be able to fix this crisis. So, do you believe that Rahm Emanuel will resign as Chicago mayor by April 15? If you believe that this will happen, you have great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/rahm-emanuel-to-resign-as-chicago-mayor-by-april-15/.
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