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Author Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay  (Read 21370 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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November 04, 2015, 12:19:44 PM
 #1

These days, when the value of Bitcoin goes up (and down) in the couple of minutes, and when the Blockchain technology appears on the cover of 'The Economist', Bitcoin community is all but a boring one. From trying to predict the value of Bitcoin in the next minutes and hours, to trying to predict what will come out of the Blockchain technology in the coming months and years.

So, with all of this, every member of a Bitcoin community is in a way predictor and some of us surely want to predict more than what is so often unpredictable value of the Bitcoin, or some other markets that are offered.

Maybe being good in a technical things, you are able to predict Will the WhatsApp reach 1 billion users in 2015? Though it is rather 50/50 situation as it reached 800m in April and 900m at the start of September. But maybe you have some additional info, and other just don't have them. Or are lazy to find.

Or maybe you are better in politics so you are sure that Angela Merkel will be Germany’s chancellor after 2017 elections? Even though she still didn't confirm officially that she will run to be the chancellor for the fourth time, and also has refugee crisis to deal with before the next elections. But Angela is Angela so that could be a sure bet.

Anyway, those are some of the suggested bets, so what would you bet on them? But more importantly, what are the other bets that you want to see on betting markets in the future? To have some additional drives of the brain cells, when all this fuss about the price of the Bitcoin gets back into the normal. At least, in a way what Bitcoin community comprehends as normal.
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FairlayBTCPredictions
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November 05, 2015, 02:15:44 PM
 #2

With “Spectre” being released in the USA tomorrow, after setting a new record at the UK box office since being released on 26th October, one of the most popular entertainment questions these days is 'Who is going to be the next James Bond?'.

In several recent interviews, Daniel Craig hinted that “Spectre” would be his last film as James Bond, so the actors like Damian Lewis, Tom Hardy, Idris Elba, Henry Cavill are already top contenders to drive Aston Martin in the 25th film. So, who is your favorite for the next James Bond?


And, more important question is, what are the other markets that you would like to see these days, as I'll continue to add one prediction market per day about the current events, while the suggestions from all of you are always more than welcomed.
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November 06, 2015, 05:37:50 PM
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A month ago, Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy announced that the next General election will be held on December 20th. It is believed that a Christmas election will offer him a favorable economic wind and lower turnout due to the holidays, so it would help his People's Party to win the majority of seats.

Last polls do indicate a win for his People's Party, with nearly 28% of the vote, but still far short of an overall majority, with just 128 seats out of the 176 needed in the 350-seat Congress. They are followed by PSOE Socialist Workers (23%), growing Citizens Party (17%), and the Podemos Party (14%).

Markets are still favorable when it comes to People's Party winning most seats, but do you think that things could change even more in Spain for the next month and half? And what are the other following elections that you find interesting?
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November 07, 2015, 01:36:59 PM
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On 5 May 2016, the London mayoral election will be held and that will be the fifth election to the position of Mayor of London, which was created in 2000. The Mayor of London is the mayor of the entirety of Greater London, including the City of London, so these are surely one of the most popular mayoral elections in the world.

As incumbent Mayor Boris Johnson has chosen not to run for re-election for a third term in office, the main contenders are expected to be the Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith, and the Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan. Though candidates from several other parties are also in race, they are almost without any chances.

While media write that this race might ‘revive some pretty basic class instincts’, betting markets are slightly more in favor of Sadiq Khan, the son of a Pakistani-born bus driver. But Zac Goldsmith, son of the late billionaire financier Sir James Goldsmith, is still with the good chances to lead the capital that is now home to more than 8.6 million people.

Goldsmith is hoping that his environmental record will appeal to Green and Liberal Democrat voters, while Khan is a human rights lawyer who was the first person from an ethnic minority background to enter the shadow cabinet. So, what are you thoughts on the race for the Mayor of London, and are there more UK Politics markets you would like to see?
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November 08, 2015, 09:37:29 PM
 #5

I don't get this thread.  Are you sponsoring a prediction market?  If, so, how do I participate?  In the months to come I expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets....For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

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November 08, 2015, 10:04:07 PM
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I don't get this thread.  Are you sponsoring a prediction market?  If, so, how do I participate?  In the months to come I expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets....For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

No, I am just creating the markets, so I want you to participate with your own ideas about the potential markets. You say that you expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets, well I want to discuss about the markets that you find interesting and topics that you and other people would like to bet on.

Yes, Augur could be nice, 'Wisdom of the crowd' is the good idea, and it will be interesting to see how those things with reputation are going to work.
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November 08, 2015, 10:31:15 PM
 #7

I don't get this thread.  Are you sponsoring a prediction market?  If, so, how do I participate?  In the months to come I expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets....For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

No, I am just creating the markets, so I want you to participate with your own ideas about the potential markets. You say that you expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets, well I want to discuss about the markets that you find interesting and topics that you and other people would like to bet on.

Yes, Augur could be nice, 'Wisdom of the crowd' is the good idea, and it will be interesting to see how those things with reputation are going to work.

I am holding some REP so I am excited about the project.  I don't know if I will invest on the other side until I see how accurate the predictions will be.  The question of "mob rules" seems a bit precarious to me....the masses have a history of being wrong....so....we will see.  Interesting times are ahead, to be sure!

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November 09, 2015, 02:44:49 PM
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I am holding some REP so I am excited about the project.  I don't know if I will invest on the other side until I see how accurate the predictions will be.  The question of "mob rules" seems a bit precarious to me....the masses have a history of being wrong....so....we will see.  Interesting times are ahead, to be sure!

Yes, you are right about the masses. But when masses put their money on something, their decisions could be better. Anyway, I agree that interesting times are ahead.

And as we talk about the masses, there is once again question of the EU Referendum in the UK, as David Cameron will on Tuesday send a letter to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, setting out his demands for change in Britain's relations with the EU. With this he will warn his European partners that if they deny his demands he may recommend a vote to leave the EU.

Cameron promised the EU Referendum by the end of 2017, but it could be held in June 2016 (as other EU leaders want to have Referendum before the autumn, with another migration crisis likely next summer) and campaign to leave is well-financed, while he finally started to be clear enough in what he wants from other EU leaders.

Most betting markets and opinion polls show that Britons favor staying in the EU, but recently the gap with those wanting to leave has started to narrow. So date of the Referendum could decide a lot, but what are your other opinions on this? Would you favor UK leaving the EU?
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November 10, 2015, 05:40:31 PM
 #9

With the late autumn and early winter comes the season of the movies in contention for the Oscars. We've already seen some of those that could get awards in February, some other are yet to hit cinemas but betting markets already have their opinions. Do you agree with them?

Like every year, the Best Picture could go to a lot of movies, but at the moment three dramas lead, though two of them will come to the cinemas at the end of the year,: 'Spotlight', 'Joy', and 'The Revenant'. Directors of these three movies are also in lead when it comes to the Best Director award, with David O. Russell, director of 'Joy', having the best chances for now.

It will be interesting to see if the Leonardo DiCaprio can finally win Oscar for the Best Actor. At the moment, markets see his lead role in 'The Revenant' as a second favorite, after Michael Fassbender for the role of Steve Jobs. When it comes to the Best Supporting Actor, we could have tight race between Michael Keaton in 'Spotlight' and 'Idris Elba in 'Beast of No Nation'.

As for the Best Supporting Actress, everyone is sure that it will be Rooney Mara for her role in 'Carol'. Still, nothing is sure when it comes to the Best Actress as Brie Larson has best chances for now as the leading actor in 'Room', though Cate Blanchett in 'Carol' and Jennifer Lawrence in 'Joy' could also have a nice February evening. Do you have any of your own favorites?
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November 11, 2015, 02:08:12 PM
 #10

'Put that you were Time's 2006 person of the year on your CV. In 2006, Time made "Everyone" the person of the year.'

It is true and that 2006 award was named one of the ten most controversial "Person of the Year" moments in the history of Time. So once again, at the start of the December Time will announce its "Person of the Year" winner. Last year we had Ebola fighters, before that Pope Francis, Barack Obama, and also The Protester in 2011.

This year betting markets favour the Migrants/the Refugees so once again group of people could get the award, but it could also go to Alexis Tsipras, Angela Merkel, Caitlyn Jenner, Taylor Swift, Elon Musk, or once again Obama, Putin, or Pope Francis. And, to anyone else. This award will not change a lot but in the future it will remind us how was 2015, so who would you like to see as the "Person of the Year"?
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November 12, 2015, 07:06:12 PM
 #11

One of the popular awards at the end of the year is the BBC Sports Personality Of The Year.

This year Jessica Ennis-Hill, track and field athlete who is the current Olympic and world heptathlon champion, has the best chances to get the award but nothing is yet done as Andy Murray still has time to become hero of the year.

Lewis Hamilton, Chris Froome, Mo Farah, Wayne Rooney are also in contention, well, as many others athletes. We have a month more till the closing of these popular SPOTY awards, so if you believe in Ennis-Hill, Murray or someone else, you can see markets and place you bets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bbc-sports-personality-of-the-year-2015/
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November 14, 2015, 04:33:55 PM
 #12

Ten days ago, we got the text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership explained on Medium, it even had it Introduction written by Mr. Obama, so it was once again shown that implementing the TPP has been one of the trade agenda goals of the Obama administration in the US.

Both before and after that, there were a lot of talk about the TPP, for those being positive in the US it is 'leveling the playing field for American workers & American businesses' but for others, like EFF 'this is secretive, multi-national trade agreement that threatens to extend restrictive intellectual property (IP) laws across the globe and rewrite international rules on its enforcement, and it will do so in a way that will have extensive negative ramifications for users’ freedom of speech, privacy, access to information, and ability to innovate.'

I am sure that you already have your opinion but do you think that the US Congress will be able to ratify TPP, and even more, do you think that it will be able to ratify TPP before 1 July 2016, as many think that Congress could vote on the bill either during the Summer of 2016 or in the lame-duck session after the 2016 elections. Anyway if you are sure that it will or will not be ratified before 1 July 2016, you have opened betting markets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/us-congress-to-ratify-tpp-before-1-july-2016-2/.
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November 18, 2015, 12:23:07 PM
 #13

For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

As Augur is a popular topic these days, there are now few betting markets that could be especially interesting for you and those already owning Reputation tokens.

It is still not confirmed when will Augur have its live release so you can place bet that it will be before or after the March 1st next year: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augur-be-launched-till-march-1st-2016-2/

At the moment, Gatecoin has a REPBTC price at 0.00455, so if you think that the Augur’s reputation token (REP) price will be at least 0.005 BTC on February 15th 2016. Or not: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augurs-rep-price-be-above-0-005-btc-on-february-15th-2016-1/

And, as Augur will probably be launched after the February 15th, and you have ideas that the price will go up and down in the months following its release, you have a market on its value on January 1st 2017. If you are sure it will be above or under 0.005 on that date, you have a betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augurs-rep-price-be-above-0-005-btc-on-january-1st-2017/

Anyway, Augur is an interesting topic, so some additional markets about the value of the investment in it are going to be released as well.
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November 19, 2015, 02:18:36 PM
 #14

After creating more serious Augur markets, that you can find at https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/bitcoin/augur/all/ here are some for those in love with the beautiful woman and Christmas charts.

There are huge chances that the X Factor 2015 winner will also be the UK Christmas Number One Single of 2015 but some think that Adele has some chances to beat that winner, or even late Cilla Black or Aurora. Maybe you have some other favorites so you can bet on them at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/uk-christmas-number-one-single-2015/.

And few days before the Christmas, we will have another Miss World competition, and if you don't have exact favorite you have a market for the Region of the Winner. Europe is currently a bit ahead but other regions have beautiful ladies in contention as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/miss-world-2015-winner-by-region/.

Do you have some more entertainment markets that you would like to see, or some more economics or politics markets, like those in connection with Augur?
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November 20, 2015, 02:39:08 PM
 #15

With AndreasMAntonopoulos tweeting yesterday "US and allies funded ISIS against Assad, provided weapons, provided training and now will blame bitcoin for the blowback.", there has been even more talk about Bitcoin being banned, especially being banned in Europe.

So, regarding these talks, now you have an open market 'Will Bitcoin be banned in Europe in 2016?' that resolves to Yes, if on December 31st 2016 Bitstamp.net, Kraken.com and Bitcoin.de are out of business or do not allow more than 50% of its existing European individual customers to buy and sell Bitcoins for fiat currency.

If you are one of those thinking that there are even slightly chances that this could happed, than you have great odds at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bitcoin-be-banned-in-europe-in-2016/.
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November 21, 2015, 01:09:42 PM
 #16

When we put entertainment and sports together, there are not many events as popular as the Royal Rumble. This professional wrestling event, produced every January by WWE, had some extremely negative audience reaction last time and #CancelWWENetwork became the top Twitter trend worldwide shortly after the event.

So, in will be interesting to see what will WWE do in two months. Will they once again go with the last winner Roman Reigns, or maybe with the crowd favorite Daniel Bryan. On the other side, Brock Lesnar and Dean Ambrose are two main favorites, but John Cena is always there. If you have your favorite for the another spectacular Royal Rumble you can find the markets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/wwe-royal-rumble-2016-match/
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November 21, 2015, 07:00:54 PM
 #17

Well, I deposited into a prediction market I heard about on the Devcon stream but it wasn't what it claimed.  I'm not so sure about prediction markets anymore.  I own some Augur Rep so I'll just stick to the reporting side of things....Beware of the Gnosis prediction market using Ethereum; it sent my Ether into a cyber void!  Fitting, smile, I lost me Ether in the ether.

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November 23, 2015, 07:29:22 PM
 #18

Next year we have US presidential election, scheduled for November 8th, with Hillary Clinton having the biggest chances to be the next Democratic President. Marco Rubio and Donald Trump are with the biggest chances when it comes to the Republicans, while you can see the complete betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-president-17/.

So, it is still far from sure who of the Republicans will go against Hillary who will surely be a Democratic nominee. More will be known with the Iowa caucus on February 1st that will serve as an early indication of which candidates for president might win the nomination of their political party at that party's national convention, and which ones could drop out for lack of support.

Ben Carson, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz are with then even chances to win the Iowa caucus for now, but if you think that Marco Rubio could win it as well, you can find betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/iowa-caucus-republican-winner/. At the same time, Hillary is with the big chances to be the Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus, with Bernie Sanders having some chances: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/iowa-caucus-democratic-winner/.

One week after Iowa caucus, we will have the New Hampshire primary on February 9th and it will be interesting to see will those results confirm those of Iowa Caucus. For now, Sanders is given rather solid chances when it comes to the Democrats in the New Hampshire primary so he could be rather even with Hillary: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/new-hampshire-primary-democratic-winner/. As for the Republicans, it will again be tight, though Trump and Rubio are at the moment with the even chances to win the New Hampshire primary: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/new-hampshire-primary-republican-winner/.

All in all, Iowa and New Hampshire do not have too many voters but with the huge media coverage they can always be an early indicators of what will follow for the rest of the year, before November 8th. What are you thoughts about these, and are there some other US Presidential Election markets that you would like to see?
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November 25, 2015, 04:07:40 PM
 #19

Okay, Star Wars fans, we are less than a month away from the opening of The Force Awakens, and I am sure you will go to see it in the cinema as early as you can. But, how many people will do that and do you think that The Force Awakens can become the highest-grossing movie of all time?

If you think that it can go above Avatar that had a worldwide gross of $2,787,965,087, you have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/star-wars-the-force-awakens-to-gross-worldwide-more-than-avatar/. But if you think that $2.8 Billion is a bit too much, you can predict that it will go above (or stay above) the worldwide gross of $1.8 Billion: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/star-wars-the-force-awakens-to-gross-worldwide-more-than-1-8-billion/.

Anyway, we are almost there and it is time to enjoy great movie months and, of course, you can already go through the Oscars' markets https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/oscars/all/ and suggest your own as well. So, any opinions?
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November 26, 2015, 03:39:06 PM
 #20

Tensions rise in the Middle East after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane, and Russian President Vladimir Putin accusing Turkey of being "the terrorists' accomplices" for shooting down a plane he claimed was on an anti-terrorism mission.

But at the same time, daughter of the Putin's slain opposition leader Boris Nemtsov said that Kremlin critics live in fear under President Vladimir Putin but there will come a time when Russia is ready for a new brand of politician. The next presidential elections in Russia will take place in March 2018, and now you have open market if Vladimir Putin will be reelected as the President of Russia: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/vladimir-putin-to-be-reelected-as-the-president-of-russia/.

At the moment, there are still big chances that Putin will be reelected once again, though his current political decisions could change a lot. What is your opinion on this, and would you like to see some other markets connected with the current political affairs in the world?
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