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Author Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay  (Read 21370 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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October 10, 2016, 02:04:24 PM
 #201

Daniel Craig hints at James Bond return. Will he indeed do another Bond film?

Daniel Craig has lent weight to theories he will return to the role of James Bond, as Guardian writes, following a year of intense speculation. Speaking at the New Yorker festival over the weekend, he told the audience: “I’ve got the best job in the world doing Bond. The things I get to do on a Bond movie and the type of work it is, there’s no other job like it.”

His enthusiasm is in contrast to the sentiments expressed shortly after shooting ended on the most recent instalment. Asked then whether he would like to return to the part, Craig declared that he would “rather slash my wrists”.

Daniel Craig to do another Bond Film? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/daniel-craig-to-do-another-bond-film/.


His words chime with those of Bond executive producer Callum McDougall, who told the BBC recently that franchise chiefs Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson were hoping for the return of the actor, who was “absolutely the first choice”. But Craig denied that he was offered $150m for two movie instalments – a report already widely debunked.

So, will Daniel Craig return as James Bond one more time? It looks like that chances are 50/50 at the moment, so you can use the great odds at Fairlay market, and if your option is No, you can follow with the bet on his successor.
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FairlayBTCPredictions
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October 11, 2016, 01:01:38 PM
 #202

Nobel Literature Prize winner is announced on Thursday. Who will it be? Murakami, Adunis, Wa Thiong'o?

Literary circles are abuzz with speculation ahead of Thursday’s Nobel Literature Prize announcement (1 p.m. CET time), with award watchers suggesting this year’s honors could go to a controversial writer such as Syrian-born poet Ali Ahmad Said Esber, known by the pen name Adonis or Adunis whose most recent publication is a polemic tract on political Islam.

Thursday announcement will be ending of an unusually long wait: it comes a week later than usual “for calendar reasons”, the Academy said in late September. Still, some Nobel watchers have interpreted the late date as a sign of discord over this year’s choice, AFP writes. Could this discord be over Adunis, or possibly some other writer?

2016 Nobel Literature Prize Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-literature-prize-winner/.


Once again, we have Japanese contemporary surrealist Haruki Murakami as the first favorite. Though he is there every year, his fans more than ever think this could be his turn. It is same with the fans of Kenyan writer Ngugi Wa Thiong'o. Portuguese novelist Antonio Lobo Antunes, and Spanish novelist Juan Marse are also amongst the leading favorites.

Literary critic Madelaine Levy at daily Svenska Dagbladet said only one thing was certain: we know that we know nothing about the Academy’s choice. “Year after year, the writers chosen are incredibly different,” she noted. So, what do you predict for this year? Some less known name, first favorite Murakami, or could Adunis be the reason for this delay?
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October 17, 2016, 04:39:20 PM
 #203

Three weeks till the US Presidential Election: Who will win Florida, Utah, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

We are 21 days away from the US Presidential election scheduled for November 8. And as Hillary has a +5.5 lead over Trump in national poll average, there are a lot of discussions about which candidate will win which state. Some states are important as they bring plenty of electoral votes, others show how politics change. What will they show this time?

Who will win Florida? Fairlay gives Hillary 76% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Florida went for Obama in 2012, but just barely, with the tightest margin of any state. After the second debate, Hillary has inched ahead in the latest polls for this all-important swing state and many think that she has an advantage over Trump because there is a large Hispanic and Latino population in Florida. But, can Trump still make a surprise win there?

Who will win Utah? Fairlay gives Trump 78% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-utah-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Mitt Romney won the state of Utah by 48 points but 56% of Mormons say Republican leaders should no longer support Donald Trump. But it still looks like Trump will prevail there. Even though it only has six of the 538 electoral college votes Utah could offer an interesting insight into changing political geography. So, could Mormons stop Trump from winning?

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay gives Hillary 68% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Some think that Ohio may decide who the next president is, so it is really important state. Reason for this is Ohio's incredibly diverse demographic, economic, and geographic makeup that makes it matter so much in elections. At the moment, Clinton is ahead plenty of polls but it seems like many think that Donald Trump could still win Ohio. Will he?

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay gives Hillary 89% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Pennsylvania is one of the battleground states and many polls show that Hillary should easily win it. Still, in the last days there are plenty of headlines like 'Can Trump really win Pennsylvania? Stranger things have happened in 2016.' But, since 1988 Republicans have seen prize of 20 electoral votes swept away from them. Can Trump change that this time?
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October 20, 2016, 04:02:52 PM
 #204

Trump says he'll keep country 'in suspense' on accepting election result. Will he accept it in the end?

The third and final presidential debate brought a lot of things, but most of today's focus is on Trump's refusal to say he'll accept losing. As Politico writes, Donald Trump delivered another unprecedented historical moment during the final presidential debate Wednesday night when the Republican nominee, who appears on his way to a landslide loss, refused to say that he would accept the election’s outcome.

“I will look at it at the time,” said Trump — just hours after his daughter, campaign manager and running mate all insisted that he would respect the voters’ will, win or lose. “That’s horrifying,” Clinton shot back, offering several examples of Trump blaming his personal setbacks and disappointments on others’ cheating or rigging of the events, including 'The Apprentice' getting passed over for an Emmy.

Will Trump accept the election result? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-trump-accept-the-election-result/.

The Republican nominee’s stunning refusal to say he’ll accept the outcome on November 8 was a jolting replay of the first GOP primary debate in which he dismayed his fellow Republicans by refusing to back the eventual nominee. We didn't see would he back the eventual nominee as he became the one, but do you think that he will go so far to deny the validity of the electoral results on November 8?

Treating American democracy as gingerly as a reality TV subplot, Trump promised last night moderator Chris Wallace and the country he would "keep you in suspense, OK?" And, while many think that with this move Trump made a huge mistake that will surely cost him in the end, you can now predict at Fairay market whether or not he will accept the electoral results. So, what is your opinion on all of this?
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October 25, 2016, 02:41:55 PM
 #205

Nintendo Switch vs PS4 Pro vs Xbox One S: Which one will be the highest selling console of 2017?

At long last, Nintendo has taken the wraps off its new NX games console. We now know the Nintendo NX will be called the Switch and after having a first look at it, we surely all want to have it. Still, we don’t know anything beyond the basics shown to us in the reveal trailer and that the Switch launches in March of 2017.

Though, a leak on Reddit before the Switch announcement suggested the console will retail at around $299 for the base model but bundles will be available at $399 and be, we expect, similar to the Wii U Deluxe. And could this mean that Nintendo Switch will become the highest selling console of 2017 as most people want to have it?

The highest selling console of 2017. Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-highest-selling-console-of-2017/.


At the same time, Xbox released a video with the bold title of "Xbox One: The Best-Selling Console in America." It's a somewhat misleading claim as it's a fact, that to date, the PlayStation 4 has sold more units than the Xbox One. Over the past few months the Xbox One indeed has outsold the PlayStation 4 in America and that is only true.

Still, it's entirely possible that the announcement of the PlayStation 4 Pro has deflated PlayStation sales, as gamers wait to purchase the newer, more powerful console when it launches next month. But, will PlayStation 4 Pro be better selling console than Xbox One S, and can either of them win over Nintendo Switch? Predict at Fairlay.
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October 31, 2016, 05:52:15 PM
 #206

Hillary vs Trump entered its final week: Does Hillary has is it, or is it becoming a tightening race?

As AFP writes, Donald Trump stormed into Democratic territory as the campaign entered its final week Monday, determined to disprove polls and capture the White House as rival Hillary Clinton battles to contain the fallout from renewed FBI focus on her emails. But can he use this to become the next President on November 8?

Allegations that Clinton put the United States at risk by using a private email server while secretary of state were thrust back into the spotlight Friday, though FBI director James Comey told email disclosure may have broken law, dramatically shifting the momentum in a race where Clinton was increasingly seen as the prohibitive favorite to win.

Who will become the next President?
Predict at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-president-11/.


University of Virginia politics professor Larry Sabato told AFP the email scandal "has changed the dynamic of the race." And it surely did. "She would have been running a victory lap this week, running up the score. Instead she's trying to hold on." And with this, her lead in RCP polling is down to +3.0 today, after +7.1 on October 18.

While Clinton does maintain leads in some key battleground states and a modest advantage nationwide, recent polls already showed a tightening race. An ABC News/Washington Post survey carried out before the FBI announcement put the Democratic presidential candidate just one point ahead of her Republican challenger.

But while Clinton's lead has shrunk, Sabato distilled the Trump strategy to a simple truth: he needs to flip at least one Democratic-leaning state on November 8 in order to win. Is Trump able to do this? At the moment, Fairlay market gives him 24% chances (with a rather big increase recently), so you can still use the great odds on his win.
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November 02, 2016, 03:43:36 PM
 #207

Battleground states, swing states, purple states: Who will win them, Hillary or Trump?

We are only few days away from the night of November 8 when the results start to come in from each of fifty states. Map will be filled in blue for Hillary and in red for Trump, but the fact is that we already know most of these results. Still, those purple states, also known as swing states or battleground states, need to find it real color.

So, purple states which are relatively evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. And, depending on analysts, there are eight to fifteen competitive states this time around. In recent cycles, the presidency has been won in Florida and Ohio. America's 3rd and 7th largest states with 29 and 18 electoral votes respectively, they are constantly swinging back and forth between parties.

Who will win Florida? Fairlay market gives Hillary 56% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


The two states also have near-perfect records of picking the president over the past five decades. The result in Ohio has mirrored the national outcome in every election since 1960, while Florida has diverged from the nation at large just once over that period. Thus, both Hillary and Trump these days spend a lot of their time in these two states.

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay market gives Trump 60% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Though Trump remains a narrow lead in Ohio, Florida is still really tight. With its burgeoning Hispanic population, we might think Florida would be slipping from Trump’s grasp because of his incendiary rhetoric on immigration. Yet his message on trade and change is resonating well even among some Hispanics in central Florida and the outcome, as so often is the case, is entirely in the balance.

Who will win North Carolina? Fairlay market gives Trump 51% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-north-carolina-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


North Carolina is also one of the swing states. When Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, he was the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter. Mitt Romney won the Southern state back in 2012, and it now appears to be a toss-up between Clinton and Trump. And it could go either way, with the race being incredibly tight.

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-pennsylvania-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Pennsylvania is a state that has Democrat all over it. Philadelphia is the city of Brotherly Love with a significant black population. Scranton is the hometown of Vice President Joe Biden. Still, though polls are going towards Hillary, Trump still thinks that he can win Pennsylvania. His focus: the Philadelphia suburbs. Hillary is given 79% at Fairlay market so Trump’s win there would be a rather surprise.

Other battleground states:

Who will win Virginia? Fairlay market gives Hillary 87% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-virginia-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Michigan? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-michigan-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Wisconsin? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-wisconsin-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Iowa? Fairlay market gives Trump 72% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Colorado? Fairlay market gives Hillary 77% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Nevada? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-nevada-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.
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November 03, 2016, 10:39:50 AM
 #208

Next French President: Hollande’s popularity falls to 4%, will Alain Juppe use this?

French presidential election is scheduled to be held on April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff, but it already looks that current president is without the chances as his approval ratings have plummeted to 4%.

Reason for this is a 662-page book published last month by two journalists, based on recorded interviews with the Socialist president. In it, Hollande insults all and sundry: judges, footballers, his own ministers and more.

Yet even if Hollande were to stand aside, as The Economist writes, polls suggest that the Socialists would perform disastrously in the presidential election’s first round, failing to make it to the second-round run-off.

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-french-president/.


The party’s best alternative, Manuel Valls, would still not beat either the centre-right candidate or the nationalist Marine Le Pen. And the Republicans will hold presidential primaries to select a candidate on November 20.

So, if Alain Juppe defeats Nicolas Sarkozy to become the Republicans candidate, he will become even bigger favorite to become the next French president. In all the recent polls, mayor of Bordeaux is the one with the best numbers.

Though, support for anti-migration candidate Marine Le Pen is believed to be surging as well. Thus, the following months will surely be interesting in France, so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds on most candidates at Fairlay market.
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November 03, 2016, 04:19:24 PM
 #209

The Oscars 2017: Which movies are gaining, and which movies are losing their chances for the 89th Academy Awards?

The 89th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on February 26, 2017 but there are already some bigger changes at our Oscars markets. Some movies are coming out with negative reviews, others with positive, while most of them are still in waiting to hit the cinemas. Still, that doesn’t stop people to see some of them as the best movies of the year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


One of those movies is ‘La La Land’, romantic musical comedy-drama starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, which is set to be released on December 9 but it is already by far the biggest favorite for the Best Picture. Some movies (like Australian-American-British drama ‘Lion’) are losing their chances, while others (like ‘Silence’, historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese, or drama ‘Moonlight’ written and directed by Barry Jenkins) are gaining them.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


Damien Chazelle, director of ‘La La Land’ also became one of the favorites for the Best Director Award, though he is still given the same chances as Ang Lee, director of ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’, and Kenneth Lonergan, director of ‘Manchester by the Sea’. But, can some other directors, like Denzel Washington for ‘Fences’, prevail in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.


As we talk about Denzel Washington, he is still the second favorite for the Best Actor Award, for the leading role in his already mentioned own movie ‘Fences’. Though, things didn’t change a lot recently as Casey Affleck, for his superb role in ‘Manchester by the Sea’ is still the first favorite, while Ryan Gosling’s chances for the Oscar (of course, for his role in ‘La La Land’) are becoming bigger, so it wouldn’t be such a big surprise if he wins it this year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.


On the other side, favorites for the Best Actress changed so much in the recent weeks that Fairlay had to offer completely new market. The main reason for this are Emma Stone for her role in ‘La La Land’, and Natalie Portman who looks great as Jackie Kennedy in ‘Jackie’. But, who are your favorites, and which movies do you see as the winners?
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November 14, 2016, 03:13:38 PM
 #210

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City. Who will win it? Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City, as the Norwegian defending champion Magnus Carlsen and his Russian challenger Sergey Karjakin vie for the game’s highest title. They’re both kids: Carlsen is 25 and Karjakin is 26, yet they’ve lived half their lives as grandmasters. The match is being billed as the youngest championship ever, as FiveThirtyEight’s Oliver Roeder writes.

The first weekend of their best-of-12 match is in the books, and after two games — and two draws — the score is level at 1-1. In Game 1, Carlsen, playing with the white pieces, chose an unusual opening called the Trompowsky Attack. The joke around the Fulton Market Building on Friday was that he played it as a homophonic nod to the new president-elect. There was truth to the joke. Asked after the game whether his choice had anything to do with Donald Trump, Carlsen replied: “A little bit.”

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Game 3 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-game-3-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-game-3/.


“I’m a big fan of Donald Trump,” Carlsen told Norway’s TV2 in March. “Trump is incredibly good at finding opponents’ weaknesses. He speaks only about that the other candidates are stupid or smelly. There should be more of this in chess, too.” Carlsen then offered a Trumpism of his own: “Karjakin is incredibly boring!” Karjakin, for his political part, is an avowed supporter of Vladimir Putin.



By the end of that first game no further blood was drawn, and the players agreed to a draw after the 42nd move and just under four hours of play. Game 2, with Karjakin handling the white pieces, began with the all-too-familiar Ruy Lopez opening, a staple of chess for 500 years. The rest of the game was an equally uncreative and plodding affair. After just under three hours, and not much else to speak of, they arrived at a second draw.

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Series Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series-3/.


With the match continuing today, Carlsen remains the heavy favorite, although his chances according to Oliver Roeder’s Elo-based simulations have dipped from 88 percent at the start to 84 percent now, as Karjakin has held serve. At the same time, Fairlay market gives another draw in Game 3 66% chances, while Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite for the final win with 82% chances.

The 12-game match is taking place until November 30, with the two contestants competing for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros. If the score is tied after 12 games, a four-game rapid chess match will be played, then five two-game matches of blitz chess if necessary, and finally, an Armageddon game will be used to break the tie. At the same time, the World Chess Championship in New York will be the first in any sport to be broadcast in 360-degree virtual reality (VR).
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November 23, 2016, 01:29:49 PM
 #211

Where is Julian Assange? And will he be proven alive before 2017, or least in the following 10 months?

“We're happy to announce (a bit prematurely due to sleep schedules) that /r/WhereIsAssange is the subreddit of the day for 11/23/16.“ Yes, that's how big WhereIsAssange got in the last few days as its primary focus is the whereabouts/status of Julian Assange after his internet disconnection and disappearance from the public eye last month. So, where is Julian Assange? And will he soon be proven alive?

Will Julian Assange be proven alive before 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-2017/.


In case you missed it, here is /r/WhereIsAssange Summary of the events:

The WikiLeaks twitter made several cryptic "pre-commitment" tweets several hours before announcing Julian Assange's internet was cut. Since then, we have received no definitive proof of life, just recycled pictures and videos, statements from people saying things like, "I've seen him, he's fine," then a call-in to an obscure South America open source conference where Julian didn't seem to always be responding to the person asking questions, and most recently a video interview with John Pilger that had no establishing shot of both of them in frame and is edited at numerous points.

Will Julian Assange be proven alive before September 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-september-2017/.


Thus, /r/WhereIsAssange is asking for an unedited video proof of life, preferably with a newspaper showing the current date, and a signed PGP statement using the Wikileaks Editorial Board public key that has been published since 4/2015 (matching the PGP fingerprint listed on the WikiLeaks twitter bio). As for Fairlay, any proof accepted by the media and Reddit users is enough. But, will that proof come in the following weeks (before 2017), or in the following months (before September 2017). Well, make your opinion at Fairlay.
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December 01, 2016, 01:33:04 PM
 #212

Italian constitutional referendum will be held on Sunday: Will it be a Yes or a No vote?

Italy will hold a referendum on Sunday on whether or not to change the country’s constitution. As Independent writes, the country’s centre-left Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, has promised to resign if the electorate rejects his proposals. But the vote hangs in the balance.

Also, as Guardian writes this referendum is causing concern across Europe after the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory. Italy’s vote is as well seen as the biggest threat to Europe since the UK’s referendum on EU membership in June.

Italian Constitutional Referendum result, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/italian-constitutional-referendum-result/.


So, how is the referendum likely to go? Before the official blackout on polls on November 18, there was a projected 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent lead for the “No” camp. There is some hope that the 20 per cent people who haven’t made up their mind will ultimately swing behind “Yes”.

At the moment, Fairlay market is also in favor of “No” vote, as “Yes” is given only 21 per cent chances. And the “No” vote is being championed by the populist Five Star movement, led by the comedian Beppe Grillo, an admirer of Mr Trump. In short, the outlook for Mr Renzi is not particularly good. But, what do you think?
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December 13, 2016, 04:13:34 PM
 #213

Who will be the next French President? Francois Fillon, Marine Le Pen, or someone third?

Two weeks ago, Francois Fillon has won France's Republican presidential primary, after his opponent Alain Juppe conceded defeat, and by doing this he became the first favorite to become the next French President.

Thus, Fillon is now likely to face a spring showdown with far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who will be seeking to build on that same anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim and anti-establishment feeling.

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-1/.


Some recent polls showed that Fillon will beat Le Pen by 67% to 33%, but many agree that Le Pep could become the next French President as the National Front leader is feeling confident after Brexit and Trump win.

While Fairlay market at the moment gives Fillon 59% and Le Pen 23% chances, the first round of the French presidential election will be held on April 23, and the second on May 7. So, who will be the big winner in the end?
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December 15, 2016, 04:28:38 PM
 #214

2017 Golden Globes: Who will win the main categories? La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea?

On Monday morning, Don Cheadle, Laura Dern, and Anna Kendrick announced the nominees for the 74th Golden Globe Awards. The resulting list contained plenty of good news for La La Land, which led the pack with seven nominations; Moonlight, in second with six nods; and Manchester by the Sea, which scored five.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Film: Musical or Comedy
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-film-musical-or-comedy/.


So, Damien Chazelle's movie La La Land is up for best musical or comedy film, while there are acting nominations for its stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling. Chazelle is up for best film director and it is also nominated for original screenplay, score and song. Thus, La La Land could be the biggest winner on January 8, 2017.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Film: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-film-drama/.


But coming-of-age drama Moonlight is close behind with six nominations, including best drama film. Though, at the moment the first favorite to win the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Drama is Manchester by the Sea, movie about a caretaker who finds himself taking in his teenage nephew.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-director/.

Manchester by the Sea also got the Best Director nomination for Kenneth Lonergan, though it is more likely to prevail in Best Actor – Drama category as Casey Affleck did a great job. But Denzel Washington also did a great acting role in Fences, while he didn’t get nomination for directing this movie.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actor: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actor-drama/.


Natalie Portman is favorite for the best drama actress award for playing Jacqueline Kennedy in the biopic Jackie. Still, there was a lot of positive talk about great role of Amy Adams in Arrival, though she is at the moment third favorite with the second being Isabelle Huppert for her role of a successful businesswoman in Elle.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actress: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actress-drama/.


Ryan Gosling is already seen as the winner of Golden Globe for Best Actor - Musical or Comedy, and the lead actor of La La Land doesn’t face great competition in this category. It was nice seeing Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins, and Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool but either of them will hardly prevail.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actor-musical-or-comedy/.


Category that will take more attention than it usually does is Best Actress in TV Drama. Evan Rachel Wood was in the last few months superb in Westworld, before her Winona Ryder was impressive in Stranger Things, but big chances are also given to Claire Foy for her role of Queen Elizabeth II in The Crown.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actress: TV Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actress-tv-drama/.

So, who are your favorites in all of these categories? And hurry up to place the bets on them at Fairlay markets.
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December 21, 2016, 03:54:33 PM
 #215

Bitcoin is going up, but where will it stop? At $850, $900, $1200?

Bitcoin finally passed the $800 value, for the first time since February 2014. And soon after breaking this "psychological barrier" it started going crazy and is currently trading at $827 (just a few minutes ago it was at $822). So, where will it stop?

Bitcoin to top 850 USD before January 1? Fairlay market gives this 57% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-850-usd-before-january-1/.


Among other things, Chinese trading is a significant factor behind bitcoin's above the $800 mark. Trading volumes in China have been "extraordinary", with 10 million bitcoins traded on days in October and November. This has now subsided to a steady trading of around 3.5 million bitcoins a day.

Bitcoin to top 900 USD before January 1? Fairlay market gives this 24% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-900-usd-before-january-1/.


"Ah I see what's happening. #Bitcoin short positions are getting crushed. Yep, we just may see $1K before the end of the year," is the kind of the comments going around on the current changes in price. But will Bitcoin go super high?

Bitcoin to top $1200 before March 2017? Fairlay market gives this 26% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-before-mar-2017/.


So, as it surpasses $800 for the first time in three years, this is surely a big day for Bitcoin. And as The Chinese yuan at the same time traded near its weakest level in eight years, could the following days, weeks, or even months make Bitcoin even stronger? Well, use plenty of Fairlay markets to make even more Bitcoins.
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January 09, 2017, 12:17:30 PM
 #216

La La Land won seven Golden Globe Awards last night but can it repeat that at the Oscars?

Till the last night only two films have won six Golden Globe Awards (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest and Midnight Express), but last night that superlative changed as La La Land won the seven Golden Globe Awards. At the same time this film directed by Damien Chazelle also won all the seven Golden Globes that it was nominated for.

But can La La Land repeat this at The Oscars?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


The 89th Academy Awards will take place on February 26, with nominations announced on January 24. Last night showed that it is not a surprise that Fairlay market gives La La Land 80% chances to win the Best Picture award. And it looks like that only Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight can stop La La Land from prevailing.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


Things are almost the same in the Best Director category as Damien Chazelle, director of La La Land, is now given 81% chances at Fairlay. And Kenneth Lonergan, director of Manchester by the Sea, is the second favorite, while some think that Barry Jenkins could after all be awarded for creating Moonlight.



The Oscars 2016 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.

And if you think that La La Land will sweep The Oscars but you want bigger odds, then Best Actor and Best Actress are markets for you. Ryan Gosling, lead actor of La La Land, is given only 8% chances for winning the Best Actor Awards, as Casey Affleck for a lead role in Manchester by the Sea is the biggest favorite with 75% given.


The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.


While both Gosling and Affleck got Golden Globes for actors last night, Emma Stone for La La Land and Isabelle Huppert for Elle got Golden Globes for actresses. But which of them will win the Best Actress Award at Oscars, or could that be won by Natalie Portman for Jackie? Anyway, for either of them odds are huge at the moment.

So, Golden Globes are given but who are you favorites for The Oscars?
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January 22, 2017, 01:44:53 PM
 #217

Trump has already signed an executive order against Obamacare but will he end Obamacare in 2017?

In one of his first official actions, new President Donald Trump signed an executive order late Friday that directed federal agencies to use their authority to relieve individual Americans, businesses, state governments and others from “burdens” placed on them by the Affordable Care Act, adopted by the term "Obamacare".

As Los Angeles Times writes, the Trump administration and its Republican allies in Congress billed the order as a first step in their push to repeal Obamacare. So, does this mean the new President has scrapped the 2010 healthcare law “on Day One,” as he once promised he would do? Or is this just more talk from the new President?

Will Trump end Obamacare in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-trump-end-obamacare-in-2017/.


But even if Trump wants to do this, Obamacare cannot be repealed so easily. It can only be repealed by another law, which would require an act of Congress, not just an executive order from the President. That is why congressional Republicans are debating how to craft a new law that could supplant all or part of the one Obama signed in 2010.

So, Republican lawmakers have been struggling with how to fulfill their pledge to repeal the healthcare law, replace it with something else and preserve coverage for the more than 20 million people who rely on it. To do this, they will have to design a path to transition from the current Obamacare system to whatever they come up with.

But, can Trump and his administration do this while preventing the current system from collapsing? Also, can they do this before 2018? Also, note that in order for this Fairlay market to pass, it is enough for Obamacare to be renamed, not just ended. What is your opinion on this, or is it still too soon to predict what will Trump do?
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January 24, 2017, 05:04:16 PM
 #218

Oscars nominations are here: La La Land has 14, Arrival and Moonlight 8, but who will prevail in the end?

Today La La Land equaled record for the most Oscar nominations, as this beautiful musical continued impressive awards season with 14 nods, and so leveled with current nominee record-holders All About Eve and Titanic. In the end Titanic won 11 Oscars, but how many will La La Land will, and can it complete The Big 4 for Picture, Director, Actor and Actress?

How many of the 'Big 4' Oscars will La La Land win?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/how-many-of-the-big-4-oscars-will-la-la-land-win/.


La La Land is a huge favorite for both Best Picture and Best Director Damien Chazelle, but it is a question can it also win awards for the Best Actor and Best Actress. As for the other movies, Moonlight got eight nominations, the same number as Arrival. But can either of them, or some other movie stop La La Land from winning the Best Picture Award?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture-1/.


With the six nominations follow Lion and Manchester by the Sea whose director Kenneth Lonergan is the second favorite for the Best Director, and it looks like that only he or Barry Jankins, who directed Moonlight, can stop Damien Chazelle from being the big winner. Or can maybe Best Director Award go to Denis Villeneuve for creating Arrival?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-director-1/.


Best Actor is one of the categories where La La Land is not amongst the main favorites as its Ryan Gosling in only third favorite at the Fairlay market. By far the biggest favorite is Casey Affleck for his lead role in a drama Manchester by the Sea, while the second favorite is Denzel Washington for the role in his own movie Fences. Who will celebrate in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor-1/.


Emma Stone is the first favorite for the Best Actress, though she is far from the big favorite. The main reason for this is Natalie Portman who was superb portraying Jackie Kennedy. So, who of them will prevail, or could we have a surprise as other nominees are Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Ruth Negga for Loving, and Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-2/.


Hell or High Water is another movie with six nominations, and its Jeff Bridges is one of the actors who could win the Best Supporting Actor Award. Though Michael Shannon for his role in Nocturnal Animals is ranked high, it looks like this will after all be an easy win for Mahershala Ali and his role in Moonlight. But, could this category bring one of the surprises?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actor/.


It is almost the same story for the Best Supporting Actress Award as Viola Davis is the huge favorite for her role in Fences. Michelle Williams, Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer were all great in their roles but its rather unlikely that any of them will be awarded. Still, you never know, and thus hurry up to make your own Oscars predictions.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actress/.
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February 06, 2017, 01:08:50 PM
 #219

Juppe confirms he will not replace scandal-ridden Fillon: Will Emmanuel Macron be the next French President?

Few weeks ago it looked like Francois Fillon will easily become the next French President, but the election has recently been thrown open since allegations that the longstanding centre-right favourite paid his wife and children close to €1m of public money for parliamentary assistance jobs that investigators suspect she did not do.

These days speculation started that Alain Juppe could replace scandal-ridden Fillon who could drop out as the Republicans candidate, but this morning Juppe confirmed on his twitter feed that he stands behind Fillon. As you remember, Juppe was the first favourite on the markets before he lost the Republicans primary in November.

With all of this, the most unpredictable French election in decades picked up pace. So, who will win them?

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.


This weekend far-right leader Marion Le Pen published a presidential programme built around putting France first, reclaiming sovereignty from the EU and curbing immigration. And opinion polls still predict Le Pen will win the first round of the two-stage contest in April but be defeated in the May 7 run-off by a mainstream candidate.

And, with Francois Fillon losing all the trust, this mainstream candidate is now centrist Emmanuel Macron. Former Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs is now given a 46% chance at the newest Fairlay market, with Marine Le Pen at 33%, while Francois Fillon is now given only a 13% chance to become the next French President.

We saw that a lot can change overnight in France, but who will prevail in the end? Macron, Le Pen, someone else?
FairlayBTCPredictions
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February 06, 2017, 05:41:31 PM
 #220

If $1000 is becoming a support level, can Bitcoin hit $1200, $1300, or even $1400 before April?

Bitcoin prices experienced notable gains in the recent weeks, pushing higher while analysts pointed to the recent improvement in sentiment as the impetus for the increases. Some think that $1000 is becoming a support level, but what will then happen in the next two months?

Bitcoin to top 1200 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 57% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-usd-before-april-1/.


Earlier this month, as CoinDesk writes, trader sentiment encountered headwinds when bitcoin’s sharp price volatility motivated the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to intervene and meet with major Chinese exchanges BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin. The startups later eliminated margin trading and began charging trading fees, two developments some have speculated would help reduce volatility.

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 33% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-april-1/.


However, bitcoin trading volume flooded to no-fee exchanges, which once again raised the question of which trading volume figures were reliable. More recently, traders have become more optimistic, according to several market observers. So, will Bitcoin Price go up even more before April?

Bitcoin to top 1400 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 21% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1400-usd-before-april-1/.
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