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Author Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay  (Read 21370 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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April 06, 2017, 12:48:35 PM
 #241

First round vote for the next French President: Who will win it and how many vote % will Marine Le Pen have?

Market for the next French President is one of the most popular ever at Fairlay, and it will be decided quite soon as the first round is scheduled for April 23, with the potential runoff at May 7. And though there were many changes at first, in the last couple of months Emmanuel Macron is keeping lead over Marine Le Pen, with Francoise Fillon staying behind.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.


And though Macron is the favorite to win the runoff, could he win the most votes in the First round as well? This week, a Le Monde/Cevipof opinion poll said that centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right rival Marine Le Pen are tied on 25 percent of the first-round election vote. So, it is a tight race and you can use that at Fairlay.

Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.


Thus, at Fairay, Marine Le Pen is still given slightly bigger chance to win the first round but even if she wins it, with how many vote % will she win it? At the moment, 20% to 30% looks like a sure bet, but a lot of people think polls could once again be wrong. Could she go above 30%, or even 40%, or disappoint by staying above 20%? Well, make your opinion.

Marine Le Pen 1st round vote %
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/marine-le-pen-1st-round-vote/.
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April 06, 2017, 01:33:24 PM
 #242

First round vote for the next French President: Who will win it and how many vote % will Marine Le Pen have?

Market for the next French President is one of the most popular ever at Fairlay, and it will be decided quite soon as the first round is scheduled for April 23, with the potential runoff at May 7. And though there were many changes at first, in the last couple of months Emmanuel Macron is keeping lead over Marine Le Pen, with Francoise Fillon staying behind.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.


And though Macron is the favorite to win the runoff, could he win the most votes in the First round as well? This week, a Le Monde/Cevipof opinion poll said that centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right rival Marine Le Pen are tied on 25 percent of the first-round election vote. So, it is a tight race and you can use that at Fairlay.

Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.


Thus, at Fairay, Marine Le Pen is still given slightly bigger chance to win the first round but even if she wins it, with how many vote % will she win it? At the moment, 20% to 30% looks like a sure bet, but a lot of people think polls could once again be wrong. Could she go above 30%, or even 40%, or disappoint by staying above 20%? Well, make your opinion.

Marine Le Pen 1st round vote %
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/marine-le-pen-1st-round-vote/.


Well we hope that the prediction on fairlay can actually occur and the Marine Le Pen can actually win the election so that new changes in France can occur. Aside from that if she win the election the price of LEPEN coins that is named based on her name will increase in value and many traders are already at watch on the election that would not only change the future of France but will also dictate the potential profit of the traders.

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April 10, 2017, 11:04:29 AM
 #243

TIME Person of the Year 2017: Angela Merkel, Theresa May, Emmanuel Macron, Narendra Modi, or someone else?

There was plenty of negative comments in December, when Donald Trump was announced ‘TIME Person of the Year 2016’ as many once again forgot that TIME Magazine gives this annual award to whichever person, group, idea or object that “for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year”. So, who could win it this year?

Angela Merkel won it in 2015, but she is still the No. 1 favorite to win it again as she could be re-elected Chancellor of Germany at the end of September. However, Martin Schulz could defeat her in September, so it is not a surprise to see him amongst the favorites as well. By stopping Merkel, he would surely took all the media focus at the end of the year.



TIME Person of the Year 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/time-person-of-the-year-2017/.


Before that, a lot will be decided in the next weeks as we face French Election. Emmanuel Macron is leading the polls (and Fairlay market), with Marine Le Pen still in the race. Being the favorite for the next French President, Macron is given rather big chances to become TIME Person of the year as well, behind Theresa May who is already leading the UK.

Ebola fighters won this award in 2014, The Protester in 2011, while this year The White Helmets lead the groups of people. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, was amongst the 10 runners-up last year and is still ranked high this year, as well as Pope Francis who already won the award in 2013. So, who will win it this year? Well, predict at Fairlay.
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April 13, 2017, 04:47:07 PM
 #244

AlphaGo vs. Ke Jie is scheduled for May: Does Chinese No.1 Go master player has any chances against Google’s AI?

After a lot of speculation in the recent months, it’s been confirmed lately that DeepMind’s AlphaGo will takes on world’s top Go player Ke Jie in China in a three-game match starting May 23. It will be AlpaGo’s second official match after in march last year it took on and defeated one of the world’s top Go players, Lee Sedol. So, can Ke Jie do any better?

Well, hardly. In fact, back in January AlphaGo secretly (like an unknown player called ‘Master’) played 60 online matches against some of the world's best players, including Ke Jie who was defeated three times, and didn't lose a single one.  Still, after those losses Ke Jie hasn’t given up hope, claiming that he still has ‘one last move’ to defeat AlphaGo.



Will AlphaGo beat Ke Jie in the three-game match planned for May 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-alphago-beat-ke-jie-in-the-three-game-match-planned-for-may-2017-1/.


Now, that ‘one last move’ for 19-year-old Ke Jie will be three matches on the 23rd, 25th and 27th of May. Though, after his first two losses to ‘Master’ in recent days, he acknowledged that humans are no match for AI in this game.  It was change in opinion after Ke had been confident that AlphaGo could not beat him after the AI’s March victory over Sedol.

What is even worse for Ke Jie is that he will not play against AlpaGo’s version that defeated Sedol. In fact, the AlphaGo that played against Lee Sedol was v18. The Master that achieved 60-0 was v25. And it was already noted that it will be the newest version playing against Ke Jie in May. He will have a really hard job, so do you give him any chances to win?
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April 18, 2017, 01:30:41 PM
 #245

Theresa May caught us by surprise as today she called for snap elections on June 8, so who will win Majority?

Britain's Theresa May on Tuesday called for snap elections on June 8, catching the country by surprise in a bid to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the European Union. So, will he manage to do that in the following months?

As AFP notes, despite repeatedly rejecting calls from within her Conservative party for an early vote, May has now decided to take advantage of her commanding lead over the main opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.

That margin in opinion polls reached even 20 points in the latest polls, so there are huge chances that the UK will have Conservative Majority after potential June 8 election. Second option in Fairlay market is No Overall Majority at all.



UK General Election Majority
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/uk-general-election-majority/.

By the way, British election dates are enshrined in law and can be changed only by a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Theresa May said she would ask parliament on Wednesday to decide on bringing this forward to June 8.

As the main opposition Labour party said it would back it, the UK will likely have these snap elections. But Labour Majority is not likely, but if you think that anything but Conservative Majority can happen you have great odds at Fairlay.
FairlayBTCPredictions
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April 24, 2017, 11:13:00 AM
 #246

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face in the runoff at French presidential election: Who will prevail?

The first round of voting in the French presidential election on Sunday saw centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen make it through to the second round runoff scheduled for May 7. Yesterday, Macron took 8.4m votes (23.75%), while Le Pen took 7.6m (21.53%) – the highest ever score for the Front National.

Still, Le Pen is not given plenty of chances to become the next French President as this morning opinion polls have Macron beating her in the second round by 61% to 39%. At the same time, Fairlay market gives Macron a 87% chance.



Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-5/.


While Le Pen has no natural alliances with other parties, so she only issued a call for all patriots to join her, Francois Fillon, who came third, had said he would vote for Emmanuel Macron. The socialist candidate, Benoit Hamon, did the same, closely followed by the prime minister, the socialist Bernard Cazeneuve. So, it looks like Macron is in for the win.

But can Le Pen, who wants to leave the euro, return to the franc, exit the Schengen agreement and close French borders, once again defeated polls like Trump and Brexit did? If you have that opinion, use the great odds at Fairlay.
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May 29, 2017, 12:56:28 PM
 #247

Bitfinex Hack is almost a distant memory, but could another Bitcoin Exchange mess up before 2018?

For those who had no funds there, Bitfinex Hack that happened at the start of August last year is almost a distant memory. But for those who had funds there, fear of another exchange hack and funds loss will always be on their minds.

Just to remember that Bitfinex was shut down last August after 119,756 bitcoins, worth more than $65 million based on exchange rates at the time, were stolen from users' accounts. A lot was solved later on, but could another hack happen?



Bitcoin exchange to mess up before 2018
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-exchange-to-mess-up-before-2018/.


In fact, it did as South Korean bitcoin exchange Yapizon was hacked a month ago, losing more than $5 million worth of user funds as approximately 37% of user funds were hacked and exactly 3,816 bitcoins were stolen from the exchange.

Yapizon is not among the exchanges with the high trading volume, but could some of those biggest players lose at least 200 BTC during this year? Or, could some of them even go bankrupt? Well, predict this at the newest Fairlay market.
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June 14, 2017, 04:20:49 PM
 #248

The #Flippening: Will Ethereum overtake market capitalization of Bitcoin before August?

There’s been so many Bitcoin’s governance problems recently, that the Flippening is not anymore some distant paradigm shift but the thing that could happen in the following months if the total USD market capitalization of Ethereum overtakes market capitalization of Bitcoin. But, is it possible for the Flippening to happen before August?

With this, for the first time since 2009, when Bitcoin was unleashed on the world, its dominance of the cryptocurrency market has been challenged. And that challenge is huge as Ethereum's Ether token has increased 3,000% this year with no signs of slowing. At the same time, Ether's market cap has been drawing steadily close to Bitcoin's market cap.



Will the Flippening happen before August 1?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-flippening-happen-before-august-1/.


So, at the moment two cryptocurrencies worth $34bn (ETH) and $42bn (BTC) but that could easily change with the ongoing scaling dilemma among developers and entrepreneurs building on Bitcoin, while at the same time Ethereum has a strong network effect and ability to negate the similar governance issues. Indeed, Ethereum looks strong now.

All in all, it looks like that at the moment it is only a matter of time when will ETH surpass BTC in the market cap, and then follow by attacking Bitcoin’s price. Newest Fairlay market gives August 1 as a date before which the Flippening could happen, hoping that Bitcoin community could stop it with the SegWit2x proposal that Fairlay also supports.
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September 28, 2017, 03:08:41 PM
 #249

Fairlay has been around since 2013 in beta form and it continues like that. Although this can be frustrating to some, it is not a ‘no-no’ and therefore a Fairlay review is necessary. There are definitely advantages and disadvantages in using Fairlay as your preferred Bitcoin prediction market.
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