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Author Topic: Prediction Markets on Fairlay  (Read 21353 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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June 07, 2016, 01:45:00 PM
 #141

Will Donald Trump win the US presidency by a landslide, winning at least 370 electoral votes?

A landslide victory is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents. And, against all odds, it is time to discuss can Doland Trump, as a Republican nominee, win the US presidency by a landslide.

Okay, maybe it is too soon to talk about this as Trump is still behind Hillary in polls for the next President, though he needs to take ’only’ 270 electoral votes to win the 2016 presidential election. In order to win it by a landslide he should take 370 electoral votes. It really looks impossible, but all the things Trump did this year looked impossible as well.

Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.


Become of this ’Trump factor’, there is more and more people who think that he can make another surprise, and some like cartoonist Scott Adams tried to explain what candidate Trump is doing to win campaign hearts and minds. Here are the factors that are part of why Adams believes Donald Trump will win the presidency (in a landslide):

1. Trump knows people are basically irrational.
2. Knowing that people are irrational, Trump aims to appeal on an emotional level.
3. By running on emotion, facts don’t matter.
4. If facts don’t matter, you can’t really be “wrong.”
5. With fewer facts in play, it’s easier to bend reality.
6. To bend reality, Trump is a master of identity politics — and identity is the strongest persuader.

So, do you agree with Adams that Trump can use this to win in a landslide? Then use great odds that you have at Fairlay.
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FairlayBTCPredictions
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June 07, 2016, 07:09:48 PM
 #142

Will Hillary Clinton win the US presidency by a landslide, winning at least 370 electoral votes?

Earlier today we discussed about Donald Trump's chances to win the US presidency by a landslide, and gave reasons why some of the people think that he indeed could do that, but chances for that are still rather small. Still, if you think that Trump could do that you have an open market at Fairlay, so use the great odds given on that option:

Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.


Still, if you think that Trump has no chances, then maybe you think that Hillary could become president with a landslide victory which is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents.

At Fairlay market this means winning at least 370 electoral votes, so can Hillary achieve that? Many of her supporters believe that Trump stands no chances in November, and recent polls favor Hillary as well, though not as much as she was favoured before. Still, if Sanders stands behind her, she could easily defeat Trump by a landslide.

Will the Democratic nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-democratic-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.


Because of the insulting and divisive style of the Trump campaign, many think that the Democratic electoral advantage will be even greater than in previous presidential elections. The prospect of a Trump presidency will galvanize Democratic voters to come out in huge numbers, so Hillary could win more electoral votes than Obama did in 2012.

So, what is your opinion on this? Can Hillary win in a landslide, or do you give Trump bigger chances to achieve this?
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June 08, 2016, 05:08:25 PM
 #143

All is set for Trump vs. Clinton, but what will be voter turnout? Small one or bigger than ever?

After few months, we are finally set for Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump election. Ted Cruz fought rather long and especially Bernie Sanders fought to the end, but after all we will get one of the most interesting election in the last few decades. But, will they be interesting to voters as well, or only to media?

Voter turnout in 2012 was 129 millions, two millions less than turnout of 131 in 2008, but what will 2016 bring? Some think that both Trump and Hillary are disliked so turnout should be lower than it was in 2012. But, at the same time, other have opinion that people will vote against one of them so turnout should be higher than in 2012.

What will be voter turnout in the US presidential elections?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-voter-turnout-in-the-us-presidential-elections-2/.


Anyway, because of all these factors you now have an open market with six different range of numbers on offer, from under 125 millions, to over 145. And we also have one unenthusiastic candidate Hillary Clinton, and on the other side enthusiastic candidate Donald Trump. So, who will influence more, and what is your opinion on this market?
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June 09, 2016, 02:35:06 PM
 #144

After Hiddleston before, now Aiden Turner is the first favorite. But, who will really be the next James Bond?

Few weeks, many bookmakers have suspended bets on the next James Bond after plenty of bets were placed on Tom Hiddleston. "I don't think that announcement is coming," said Hiddleston few days ago and once again made the next James Bond market rather popular.

At the same time, rumors that Aiden Turner will be the next James Bond emerged from plenty of different sources. Still, Sam Mendes, the man behind Skyfall and Spectre, has done his best to quash rumors that the race to be the next 007 is done and dusted: "It's not a democracy. It's not The X Factor, it's not the EU referendum, it's not a public vote."

Fairlay market for the Next James Bond:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-james-bond-1/.


But, could it be Aiden Turner? He would be the surprise choice but he has numerous positives. If the producers want sexy and suave, they could do little wrong in choosing him. And he's young enough to play Bond in a half-dozen or more films over the next decade and a half.

Still, neither Tom Hiddleston or Tom Hardy are much older, while older Damian Lewis who was frontrunner last year is still among the favorites for the role. It is same with Jamie Bell and Idris Elba who has long been seen as a Bond-in-waiting. But, who (or will any) of them be the next James Bond, and are you good enough to predict the right one?
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June 13, 2016, 02:01:37 PM
 #145

Men’s 100m and 200m in Rio: Usain Bolt vs. Justin Gatlin – who will prevail and become a hero?

We are less than two months away from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, and thus more of you want to place prediction on the biggest events. But don’t forget that you can also offer suggestions for the smaller ones.

Of course, Men’s 100m race in always amongst the most popular events at it will be once again. And, once again, all eyes will be on Usain Bolt who won gold medals in both London and Beijing. So, can he win another 100m gold this year?

Many think that Justin Gatlin, man who won gold in Athens 2004, is the only one who can stop him, but can Yohan Blake use fight of these two and win the gold after being silver four years ago in London? Eyes of all the world will be on them.

Men's 100m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-100m-winner-in-rio/.


Another interesting event will be men’s 200m race that will be held three days after 100m so some will have momentum with them. But Usain Bolt will surely be favorite on August 17, as he also won gold medals in both London and Beijing.

And though everyone will be talking about Justin Gatlin as the man who can stop him, once again Yohan Blake could use his chances, and improve even more after silver in London four years ago. So, who is your favorite to become a hero?

Men's 200m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-200m-winner-in-rio/.


Anyway, both 100m and 200m will be great races and Jamaica could once again be in control of them. At the same time, Justin Gatlin could be under pressure to win gold medals as his USA again wants to be the country with most of them.

Russia has some chances, but it will be USA vs China for the most gold medals won. USA won 46 to 38 in London, China 51 to 36 in Beijing, and it will be interesting to see who will win most gold medals in Rio. Where does your prediction go?

Country to win most gold medals in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals-in-rio/.
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June 14, 2016, 01:37:11 PM
 #146

Will Boris Johnson become UK Prime Minister in 2016?

Brexit vote on June 23 will not only decide Britons’ future in or out of the European Union, but also the political future of British Prime Minister David Cameron and his flamboyant rival, Boris Johnson.

Cameron, who is campaigning to remain in the European Union, is in nine days going head to head with the former London mayor, who is leading the campaign for a British exit.

EU Referendum Result:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.


Many say that it is a smart move by Johnson, as Cameron would find it very difficult to remain in office if Britain votes to leave, while some think Cameron will go regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

People think that Johnson will surely be the next UK Prime Minister, but the question is will he become one in 2016? Now you have an open market on this topic at Fairlay, so what is your opinion?

Boris Johnson to become UK Prime Minister in 2016:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-boris-johnson-become-uk-prime-minister-in-2016/.
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June 15, 2016, 02:45:44 PM
 #147

Will Marco Rubio change his mind and run for Senate reelection in 2016?

Whether Rubio will change his mind and seek reelection to the Senate is one of the questions of the week. Worried about keeping their Senate majority, a number of Rubio’s colleagues are leaning on him to run. They’ve been joined by a handful of his friends in the House, and a growing chorus of Florida elected officials.

Last week Marco Rubio dismissed questions over whether he would succumb to pressure from Washington and run for reelection in Florida, signaling he still plans to leave the chamber at year's end. "Nothing's changed," Rubio told CNN when asked if he would run for reelection.



Still, recently Rubio faced growing pressure from party leaders for him to reconsider his decision and run for reelection because top Republicans fear their crop of candidates are too weak and underfunded and could cost the party a critical Senate seat in the battle for control in the chamber.

Rubio has said that he's unlikely to run so long as his close friend, Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, remains in the Senate race. Lopez-Cantera has suggested that he's not dropping out. But, top Republicans are hopeful there's time for Rubio to change his mind before the June 24 filing deadline.

Will Marco Rubio run for Senate in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-marco-rubio-run-for-senate-in-2016/.


So, what is your opinion on this topic? What will Rubio do in the following days, and will he run for Senate reelection?
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June 16, 2016, 12:07:40 PM
 #148

Hillary is improving, so by how many will she lead in polling on June 22?

Less than a month ago, on May 22, Donald Trump took lead against Hillary Clinton in General Election 2016 polls. But, that lead lasted for only three days, and plenty of things changed since then. Clinton got her nomination, Sanders is out of race, and she started to increase her lead in national polls once again.

Ten days ago Clinton had +2.0% lead in the polls, and it’s been going up ever since, to +5.6% yesterday. So, will it stop soon, or will Hillary once again go over double digits lead in the polls, that she had at the middle of April?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 22?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-22/.


Now you can use your opinion about this topic at Fairlay market. At the moment, it looks like she will lead next week with +6.0 to 6.9%, but could she go even higher? Or will Donald Trump finally find the way to stop Hillary’s improvement in polls? He did that before, so he could do that once again.

But, people mostly think that Orlando tragedy will go in favor of Hillary, as plenty disapprove Trump’s response to shooting. Anyway, it is always interesting to track how the polls resolve, and don’t forget that you can follow day-to-day polling data at:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html.
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June 17, 2016, 12:35:57 PM
 #149

Will there be a hard fork before July 10 (or August 1) related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?

Hot and burning topic this morning, Ethereum community is shocked by an attack in the DAO. The consequence was price dip in few hours. Because of this, the development community is proposing a soft fork (with no rollback; no transactions or blocks will be “reversed”).

But can we expect hard fork to improve given situation? Thus, you have a new market at Fairlay:

Will there be a hard fork before July 10 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-july-10-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum-1/.


And if you think that July 10 is too soon for this to be resolved, there is also a market for August 1:

Will there be a hard fork before August 1 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-august-1-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum/.


So, what is your opinion on this topic, and which side in the market do you predict it to be resolved to?
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June 20, 2016, 01:52:53 PM
 #150

Will Bernie Sanders endorse Hillary Clinton before the Democratic National Convention?

One of the recently most popular political markets at Fairlay was 'Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?' (you can still place your predictions on this one at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/), but though at first it looked like he will drop out after losing California, he still didn't do that.

So, if he doesn't drop out out of the nomination race before July, will Bernie at least endorse Hillary before the Democratic National Convention set to start on July 25 in Philadelphia. Currently, odds go a bit towards 'Yes', but we already learned that nothing is easy with Bernie.

Will Sanders endorse Hillary before the National Convention?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-sanders-endorse-hillary-before-the-national-convention/.


While some think that he will not endorse Hillary at all, others are sure that he will do that on Convention in order to help her defeat Trump, thus not before. There is also a popular opinion that he will endorse Hillary in the following weeks, but without droping out of the race.

What is your opinion on this market. Will Sanders endorse Clinton soon enough, or go so far to not endorse her at all?
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June 21, 2016, 12:52:40 PM
 #151

Divided we fall: What will be the voting margin in the UK's EU referendum?

‘Please don’t go’ is the headline of the Der Spiegel’s special Brexit issue, that was followed by The Economist’s ‘Divided we fall’, and looks like they worked. In recent days, polls ones again showed that Britons are going towards Remain option on the EU referendum scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 23.

EU Referendum Result, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.


Still, it is far from closed and it wouldn’t be such a huge surprise even if the UK leaves the EU on Thursday. Most of you surely have your own opinion on what the final result of this vote will be, but can you also guess right the voting margin in the following UK's EU referendum?

The voting margin in the UK's EU referendum, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-the-voting-margin-in-the-uk-s-eu-referendum/.


Currently, most chances are given that Britons will vote Remain, but under 5% margin, though margin between 5% and 10% is also likely to happen. A bit less expect that they will vote Leave under 5% margin, while any other options offers you great odds. So, what is your opinion on the UK's EU referendum?
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June 22, 2016, 12:27:57 PM
 #152

Spain returns to the ballot box on Sunday, so who will be the next Spanish prime minister?

On following Sunday, June 26, for the first time since the end of Francoism, Spaniards will return to the polls because the parliament they elected on December 20 failed to form a new government. With this, Spain’s ultra-stable bipartysm has entered a major crisis, with challenger parties – the leftist Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos – contesting voters and ministerial posts from the mainstream forces, the conservative PP and the socialist PSOE.

And though PP will probably win the most votes, according to polls published recently, it remains without a large enough presence in the lower house to take a second term alone. It is interesting that a majority of voters of ruling PP would consent to its leader and acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stepping aside if this allowed the party to stay in government. So, does this mean that Mariano Rajoy will not be the next Prime Minister?

Who will be the next Spanish prime minister, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister-1/.


Rajoy, blamed for harsh austerity measures implemented in recent years that crippled the economy as well as political corruption cases at the PP during his leadership, is seen as the main obstacle for other parties to back a PP government. Still, even with this he is the first favorite on the markets, and if a ruling majority cannot be formed after the Sunday vote, Spaniards could potentially be forced to return to the ballot box for the third time in a year.

But, if it is not Rajoy, who could be the next Prime Minister?  Many think that it could be Pablo Iglesias, who has been the Secretary-General of Podemos since 2014. This could happen if grouping of Podemos and United Left beat the once-dominant PSOE and have chance to form government. There are also some who think that it could be Pedro Sanchez, Secretary-General PSOE, but he is with rather small chances. Much smaller than he had in December.

Sunday will give some answers, but can you give them before by predicting right the next Spanish Prime Minister?
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June 23, 2016, 01:08:43 PM
 #153

Who will win the 2016 World Chess Championship, Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

By defeating American star Fabiano Caruana, with the help of a brilliant rook sacrifice, Russian Grandmaster Sergey Karjakin has won the FIDE chess candidates tournament in Moscow in March and will face reigning world champion Magnus Carlsen in a title match this November in New York City.

In the 12 round match scheduled between November 11–30, that is is expected to attract a global online and TV audience of more than 1 billion fans, Carlsen will for the second time try to successfully defend his title, after taking title form Viswanathan Anand in 2013, and defending it in November 2014.

As the two Grandmasters will compete for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros, it will also be the first match for the title between such young players as they are both born in 1990. And prior to this match they have played 19 games at classical time control: Carlsen has won three, Karjakin one, and 15 games ended in a draw.

How interesting this match will be is best described by Chess.com analysist who said that it should finally answer the question from the Fischer-Karpov non-encounter: what will prevail, the genius of an individual or the iron grip of the Soviet team? Carlsen is favorite, but can Karjakin prevail? Predict at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series/.
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June 24, 2016, 01:15:44 PM
 #154

David Cameron steps down, so who will be the next UK Prime Minister?

After the UK voted to leave the European Union, Prime Minister David Cameron announced this morning that he will step down by October. He had urged the country to vote Remain but was defeated by 52% to 48%, so Cameron thinks that after this country needs a fresh leadership. And who will that be?

Yes, you surely think of Boris Johnson. Future Prime Minister Boris? His fortunes have soared dramatically as Britons voted to leave the European Union, as he has neatly positioned himself to become a main player in any ensuing Conservative leadership challenge. And exactly that happened today.

Next UK Prime Minister, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-uk-prime-minister/.


As Johnson consistently polls well with Conservative members, Michael Gove has enjoyed recent high popularity levels as well. He was one of the leading figures of the Brexit campaign, and thus some think he could be the next Prime Minister. Again, he has made a number of gaffes during the campaign.

Other think it could be the ‘Ice Queen’, Theresa May, the longest-serving Home secretary in 50 years. She is truly the quiet woman of British politics, but that doesn't mean May isn't interested in running for the leadership of the Party. And what about someone else, like the Chancellor George Osborne?

Anyway, Cameron said that a new leader will be in post by October, so what is your opinion on who will it be?
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June 27, 2016, 03:46:21 PM
 #155

Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten: Who will be Australian Prime Minister after July 2 federal election?

Australian federal election will be held on the following Saturday, July 2, and will determine all 226 members of the 45th Parliament of Australia, as well as the next Australian Prime Minister.

The race for the next Australian Prime Minister is between two party leaders: it will be either Liberal leader, and the current Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull or Labor leader Bill Shorten.

Australian Prime Minister after federal election
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/australian-prime-minister-after-federal-election/.


At the start of the year, Shorten was given almost no chances, but recently he is by some seen as a surprise winner, though Turnbull is still the first favorite with the chances of around 70%.

Recent survey showed that Australians' trust in politicians hit two-decade low, so could this influence following election, and help Shorten? On the other side, recent polls are still not going in his favor.

All in all, Turnbull is a favorite, but so was the stay of the UK in the EU, and it didn’t happen. So, what is your opinion? Could surprise vote in the UK, bring the surprise Prime Minister in Australia?
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June 28, 2016, 03:46:59 PM
 #156

When will Article 50 be triggered? And will it be triggered at all?

Rarely have 250 words been so important – five short, obscure paragraphs in a European treaty that have suddenly become valuable political currency in the aftermath of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Those 250 words are part of the Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which sets out how an EU country might voluntarily leave the union.

The UK prime minister David Cameron had repeatedly said during the campaign that Article 50 would be triggered immediately if Vote Leave were to win the Brexit referendum. Vote Leave won but Article 50 wasn’t triggered.



In fact, in his resignation speech, Cameron made it clear he was in no hurry to push the button. “A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new prime minister and I think it is right that this new prime minister takes the decision about when to trigger article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the EU,” he said.

So, if not Cameron these days, who and when will push the button? It is not sure whether will the UK get the new prime minister before the end of the year, and that opens another question: Will article 50 ever be triggered?

When will Article 50 be triggered? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/when-will-article-50-be-triggered/.


Lawyer David Allen Green has suggested in a blogpost, that “the longer article 50 notification is put off, the greater the chance it will never be made ... As long as the notification is not sent, the UK remains part of the EU. And there is currently no reason or evidence to believe that, regardless of the referendum result, the notification will be sent at all.”

Thus, there is now a market on this topic at Fairlay, with five different options: from the one that Article 50 will be triggered before October, to one that it won’t be triggered before July 2017, or not triggered at all. What do you think?
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June 29, 2016, 04:11:27 PM
 #157

Next Scottish independence referendum result: Will Scots vote to leave UK, if they get another chance?

Immediately following the UK referendum on British membership in the EU, in which a narrow majority of UK voters as a whole voted to leave the EU while a majority of Scottish voters voted to remain, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, said on that a second referendum on Scottish independence was "highly likely".

If the reason was not clear enough, Sturgeon emphasized that the Scottish Government, the devolved legislature of Scotland, would begin preparing legislation to hold a second Scottish independence referendum to secede from the United Kingdom as a consequence of Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

With referendum happening, it would be second Scottish independence referendum after 2014 when Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, with 55.3% of the electorate voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent state and 44.7% voting in favor of the proposal. So, what would happen second time?

Next Scottish independence referendum result, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-scottish-independence-referendum-result/.


But first, will we have the second one? Well, on 26 June 2016, Scottish Secretary David Mundell stated that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another independence referendum there will be one", implying that the British Government wouldn't prevent another independence referendum.

In the last few days, few of the polls showed that vote ‘For Independence’ leads, and so this vote is a small favorite on the markets as well. And though timetable of the potential referendum is far from confirmed, you can already bet on its potential results. So, what is your opinion on this topic, and would you like to have some similar markets?
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June 30, 2016, 02:55:04 PM
 #158

Today Hillary has a 5.0% lead, but by how much will she lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 6?

CNN announced yesterday that a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Trump by just two points, 42% to 40%, which is a much closer race than other recent surveys have shown. But, at the same time, polling guru Nate Silver said that Donald Trump has just a 20 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in November and notes that the former first lady has a lead no candidate has blown in a generation.

What is important for Hillary’s supporters is polling data at RealClearPolitics where she has +6.0 or Over lead for the five straight days, though it went down to 5.0% today, after being at 6.8% two days before. So, where will it stop in seven days? Can Hillary keep her lead above 6.0% or even move it over 7.0%, or will Donald start to move it down?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 6? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-6/.


And as Democrats are not pleased with the fact that Hillary’s polling lead is not higher, Fox News announced that 51% of registered Republican voters said they would rather have a different nominee over Donald Trump, so does that mean that future polling will hardly go in his favor? Anyway, you have four different polling options at Fairlay, and good odds if you guess right in which range polling numbers will be next Wednesday, July 6.
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July 01, 2016, 05:10:43 PM
 #159

Who will Donald Trump choose as a Republican Vice Presidential Candidate?

Republican National Convention is set to be held July 18–21, so in the following two weeks Donald Trump should choose his Vice Presidential Candidate that will be announced on the Convention. And though in the recent weeks multiple high-level Republican sources confirmed the names on the short list, final name is still not known.

And, as most knew before, that list is topped by former House Spekaer New Gingrich who is the first favorite on the markets. He is followed by Chris Christie, New Jersey Gov., and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions. There are few names more, but many think that one of those will try to help Trump to become the next President.

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.


Both Gingrich and Christie are skilled communicators who could bring political experience that Trump lacks. And they both want this job, as Trump for plenty of reasons struggled to get support from some of the popular Republicans. Christie is also high on the list, as he is one of the first establishment Republicans to endore Trump.

But, could someone out of these three become the vice presidential candidate, someone like Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin? Probably not, as New York Times also announced today that Trump is considering Gingrich and Christie as his possible running mates, while he started his vetting process. So, what is your opinion?
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July 02, 2016, 01:08:14 PM
 #160

Will Tim Kaine be Hillary’s safe vice presidential candidate, or will she decide to risk a bit with someone else?

How important the dates of National Conventions can be had been shown once again this year as Democrats have a big advantage of holding their convention second, so Hillary Clinton can make her final vice presidential decision with the full knowledge of the Republicans ticket. With this in mind, she won’t hurry though both Conventions (July 18–21 for Repubicans and July 25–28 for Democrats) are in few weeks time.

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.


And as Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie are first favorites to be on the ticket with Donald Trump, it is Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine who is emerging as the leading candidate on the Hillary’s short list. Kaine has executive experience, solidity, values, critical state and overall profile as someone who would be a good vice president. He even came to Hillary two years ago, and over the past year traveled to seven states as her surrogate.

Still, with Hillary running for the President, many progressive-leaning Democrats would like to see historic two-woman ticket, and it could be provided if Hillary chooses Sen. Elizabeth Warren as her veep. Warren would also soothe the hurt feelings of millions of Bernie Sanders supporters who find great appeal in the message of an economic system that is rigged for those at the top.

Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.


Only problem is lack of any personal relationship between Hillary and Warren to draw on. With this in mind, there are opinions that Julian Castro, Sherrod Brown, or Tom Perez would be better options. And there is also talk about few dark horses, like Minnesota Sen. Al Franken. Anyway, Hillary has luck that she has time to look at all the options. So, what is your opinion? Will she go with Tim Kaine as a safe card, or risk with someone else?
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