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Author Topic: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it  (Read 377318 times)
MrGPBit
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July 04, 2025, 07:16:04 AM
 #10821

I mean these prefixes.



1PWo3JeB9jNkTL28QqVi3EvU93LJuZa4JR
1PWo3JeB9jP8jxGWV1eAGXThNbxEhtxuq4
1PWo3JeB9jPUEeDgSsBmZV2oxdmYtogaMX
1PWo3JeB9jRLz2NjTHsZ8uTBnqcjnu66Ak
1PWo3JeB9jS1ttWtFXgTCy2hnCYcW1dD6V
1PWo3JeB9jSUU4ueEp5sSK6i9P26yBWfJh
1PWo3JeB9jSVntJs1FpYM2iTNAoADNv2YD
1PWo3JeB9jSiimGHNbZUoc9hfVe9Ko5SGr
1PWo3JeB9jT926gmLys26TBwr6pwStgwLb
1PWo3JeB9jUAfYHTXQjUYuS6timskdRieF
1PWo3JeB9jUiESdtipzxqWJWTANVYiydnN
1PWo3JeB9jV9ZdU1LBAwHodBvV8fRZdZ1w
1PWo3JeB9jVxkSLg1WgymVexXayVHeBGSM
1PWo3JeB9jVyFtMXcuR7ffrdPkNSLgsePc
1PWo3JeB9jY39MsnvSJSVCdaJegFQzxvzV
1PWo3JeB9jZt9nTjxVcQu2aNrNwEenZcjG
1PWo3JeB9jdMGJNFxwckqgV7HxyrRxWL9R
1PWo3JeB9jddiHUfRfYqBAVjd6HRMEoycu
1PWo3JeB9jdv1SaFoJK7SynTq94JFdbagU
1PWo3JeB9jdvp56gzG8navJjUMFQxxb997
1PWo3JeB9jeFuotNeYDrWkEhqyZ359abB2
1PWo3JeB9jgFbdXaZG1h8ng9hpYzg3CAPw
1PWo3JeB9jgLYkm8cEj6yywPn3kk41BFaY
1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU
1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU

Provide the HEX values
mahmood1356
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July 04, 2025, 08:02:01 AM
 #10822

I mean these prefixes.



1PWo3JeB9jNkTL28QqVi3EvU93LJuZa4JR
1PWo3JeB9jP8jxGWV1eAGXThNbxEhtxuq4
1PWo3JeB9jPUEeDgSsBmZV2oxdmYtogaMX
1PWo3JeB9jRLz2NjTHsZ8uTBnqcjnu66Ak
1PWo3JeB9jS1ttWtFXgTCy2hnCYcW1dD6V
1PWo3JeB9jSUU4ueEp5sSK6i9P26yBWfJh
1PWo3JeB9jSVntJs1FpYM2iTNAoADNv2YD
1PWo3JeB9jSiimGHNbZUoc9hfVe9Ko5SGr
1PWo3JeB9jT926gmLys26TBwr6pwStgwLb
1PWo3JeB9jUAfYHTXQjUYuS6timskdRieF
1PWo3JeB9jUiESdtipzxqWJWTANVYiydnN
1PWo3JeB9jV9ZdU1LBAwHodBvV8fRZdZ1w
1PWo3JeB9jVxkSLg1WgymVexXayVHeBGSM
1PWo3JeB9jVyFtMXcuR7ffrdPkNSLgsePc
1PWo3JeB9jY39MsnvSJSVCdaJegFQzxvzV
1PWo3JeB9jZt9nTjxVcQu2aNrNwEenZcjG
1PWo3JeB9jdMGJNFxwckqgV7HxyrRxWL9R
1PWo3JeB9jddiHUfRfYqBAVjd6HRMEoycu
1PWo3JeB9jdv1SaFoJK7SynTq94JFdbagU
1PWo3JeB9jdvp56gzG8navJjUMFQxxb997
1PWo3JeB9jeFuotNeYDrWkEhqyZ359abB2
1PWo3JeB9jgFbdXaZG1h8ng9hpYzg3CAPw
1PWo3JeB9jgLYkm8cEj6yywPn3kk41BFaY
1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU
1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU

Provide the HEX values
0x51c34859a33f9aef08 1PWo3JeB9jNkTL28QqVi3EvU93LJuZa4JR
0x5b4ea19e845df8dc31 1PWo3JeB9jP8jxGWV1eAGXThNbxEhtxuq4
0x549778cd7b98124c10 1PWo3JeB9jPUEeDgSsBmZV2oxdmYtogaMX
0x649a103b78b3e74856 1PWo3JeB9jRLz2NjTHsZ8uTBnqcjnu66Ak
0x649a0ad2d9876795c4 1PWo3JeB9jS1ttWtFXgTCy2hnCYcW1dD6V
0x51da1e8db3710da999 1PWo3JeB9jSUU4ueEp5sSK6i9P26yBWfJh
0x649ade9933e47de861 1PWo3JeB9jSVntJs1FpYM2iTNAoADNv2YD
0x651c1bd5cef37d5b35 1PWo3JeB9jSiimGHNbZUoc9hfVe9Ko5SGr
0x649a05d73d20978e62 1PWo3JeB9jT926gmLys26TBwr6pwStgwLb
0x6518732b2b56b3697c 1PWo3JeB9jUAfYHTXQjUYuS6timskdRieF
0x54add2baaad428adc5 1PWo3JeB9jUiESdtipzxqWJWTANVYiydnN
0x520da9a70715947fbe 1PWo3JeB9jV9ZdU1LBAwHodBvV8fRZdZ1w
0x65a6144aea3216f036 1PWo3JeB9jVxkSLg1WgymVexXayVHeBGSM
0x4620ed669f1b496ec2 1PWo3JeB9jVyFtMXcuR7ffrdPkNSLgsePc
0x7c270c663877b2616c 1PWo3JeB9jY39MsnvSJSVCdaJegFQzxvzV
0x5485e6ee348118068c 1PWo3JeB9jZt9nTjxVcQu2aNrNwEenZcjG
0x40174800c9c91ea596 1PWo3JeB9jdMGJNFxwckqgV7HxyrRxWL9R
0x542234dd5176d05a5f 1PWo3JeB9jddiHUfRfYqBAVjd6HRMEoycu
0x63f651bb9c47645cd6 1PWo3JeB9jdv1SaFoJK7SynTq94JFdbagU
0x649a3dd0486c96e70b 1PWo3JeB9jdvp56gzG8navJjUMFQxxb997
0x649a737f258abb8058 1PWo3JeB9jeFuotNeYDrWkEhqyZ359abB2
0x649af9e3471ed5c49b 1PWo3JeB9jgFbdXaZG1h8ng9hpYzg3CAPw
0x649aa0a809fe13a924 1PWo3JeB9jgLYkm8cEj6yywPn3kk41BFaY
0x7c26f7d7a330e3cf99 1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU
0x7c26f7d7a330e3cf99 1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU

MrGPBit
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July 04, 2025, 08:05:02 AM
 #10823

I mean these prefixes.



1PWo3JeB9jNkTL28QqVi3EvU93LJuZa4JR
1PWo3JeB9jP8jxGWV1eAGXThNbxEhtxuq4
1PWo3JeB9jPUEeDgSsBmZV2oxdmYtogaMX
1PWo3JeB9jRLz2NjTHsZ8uTBnqcjnu66Ak
1PWo3JeB9jS1ttWtFXgTCy2hnCYcW1dD6V
1PWo3JeB9jSUU4ueEp5sSK6i9P26yBWfJh
1PWo3JeB9jSVntJs1FpYM2iTNAoADNv2YD
1PWo3JeB9jSiimGHNbZUoc9hfVe9Ko5SGr
1PWo3JeB9jT926gmLys26TBwr6pwStgwLb
1PWo3JeB9jUAfYHTXQjUYuS6timskdRieF
1PWo3JeB9jUiESdtipzxqWJWTANVYiydnN
1PWo3JeB9jV9ZdU1LBAwHodBvV8fRZdZ1w
1PWo3JeB9jVxkSLg1WgymVexXayVHeBGSM
1PWo3JeB9jVyFtMXcuR7ffrdPkNSLgsePc
1PWo3JeB9jY39MsnvSJSVCdaJegFQzxvzV
1PWo3JeB9jZt9nTjxVcQu2aNrNwEenZcjG
1PWo3JeB9jdMGJNFxwckqgV7HxyrRxWL9R
1PWo3JeB9jddiHUfRfYqBAVjd6HRMEoycu
1PWo3JeB9jdv1SaFoJK7SynTq94JFdbagU
1PWo3JeB9jdvp56gzG8navJjUMFQxxb997
1PWo3JeB9jeFuotNeYDrWkEhqyZ359abB2
1PWo3JeB9jgFbdXaZG1h8ng9hpYzg3CAPw
1PWo3JeB9jgLYkm8cEj6yywPn3kk41BFaY
1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU
1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU

Provide the HEX values
0x51c34859a33f9aef08 1PWo3JeB9jNkTL28QqVi3EvU93LJuZa4JR
0x5b4ea19e845df8dc31 1PWo3JeB9jP8jxGWV1eAGXThNbxEhtxuq4
0x549778cd7b98124c10 1PWo3JeB9jPUEeDgSsBmZV2oxdmYtogaMX
0x649a103b78b3e74856 1PWo3JeB9jRLz2NjTHsZ8uTBnqcjnu66Ak
0x649a0ad2d9876795c4 1PWo3JeB9jS1ttWtFXgTCy2hnCYcW1dD6V
0x51da1e8db3710da999 1PWo3JeB9jSUU4ueEp5sSK6i9P26yBWfJh
0x649ade9933e47de861 1PWo3JeB9jSVntJs1FpYM2iTNAoADNv2YD
0x651c1bd5cef37d5b35 1PWo3JeB9jSiimGHNbZUoc9hfVe9Ko5SGr
0x649a05d73d20978e62 1PWo3JeB9jT926gmLys26TBwr6pwStgwLb
0x6518732b2b56b3697c 1PWo3JeB9jUAfYHTXQjUYuS6timskdRieF
0x54add2baaad428adc5 1PWo3JeB9jUiESdtipzxqWJWTANVYiydnN
0x520da9a70715947fbe 1PWo3JeB9jV9ZdU1LBAwHodBvV8fRZdZ1w
0x65a6144aea3216f036 1PWo3JeB9jVxkSLg1WgymVexXayVHeBGSM
0x4620ed669f1b496ec2 1PWo3JeB9jVyFtMXcuR7ffrdPkNSLgsePc
0x7c270c663877b2616c 1PWo3JeB9jY39MsnvSJSVCdaJegFQzxvzV
0x5485e6ee348118068c 1PWo3JeB9jZt9nTjxVcQu2aNrNwEenZcjG
0x40174800c9c91ea596 1PWo3JeB9jdMGJNFxwckqgV7HxyrRxWL9R
0x542234dd5176d05a5f 1PWo3JeB9jddiHUfRfYqBAVjd6HRMEoycu
0x63f651bb9c47645cd6 1PWo3JeB9jdv1SaFoJK7SynTq94JFdbagU
0x649a3dd0486c96e70b 1PWo3JeB9jdvp56gzG8navJjUMFQxxb997
0x649a737f258abb8058 1PWo3JeB9jeFuotNeYDrWkEhqyZ359abB2
0x649af9e3471ed5c49b 1PWo3JeB9jgFbdXaZG1h8ng9hpYzg3CAPw
0x649aa0a809fe13a924 1PWo3JeB9jgLYkm8cEj6yywPn3kk41BFaY
0x7c26f7d7a330e3cf99 1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU
0x7c26f7d7a330e3cf99 1PWo3JeB9jgfLmhDhuZofG3Gzfzd5FzBvU



Wandering Philosopher made the prefix list public when he stopped searching
fixedpaul
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July 04, 2025, 08:30:51 AM
 #10824


 But it is true that if they tell you to roll a die 6 times, and the second time you got a 6, it's normal for you to bet that there won't be another 6 in the next 4 events.


No, sorry, it's not normal to me, not at all. But that's fine, maybe my small brain just can't grasp this thing about independent events (that apparently are not so independent), and probably that's why I don't understand the greatness of prefix search.

As for the script, there are pages in this thread where we try to explain to you that the result you're seeing isn't what you think it is, but again, that's fine.
We’re speaking two different languages, your math/probability knowledge and mine just don’t align. It doesn't seem like we're able to have a technical and constructive dialogue. I had already promised myself not to write about it anymore
kTimesG
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July 04, 2025, 08:41:56 AM
Last edit: July 04, 2025, 12:13:43 PM by kTimesG
 #10825

You should straight up go to Princeton and give some lectures about this before they call the police.

The advantage of prefixes is that it's not common to find multiple prefixes of a hash in a space x where their probability is 1/x.

Wrong. Finding more than one prefix having probability 1/N in N tries is exactly converging to a total of (1 - 2/e) = 26.42%, the more N grows. That is, out of 100 tries, 28 will have at least two findings of the prefix.

If we have a lot of N-size tries (let's say, a billion), around 264 million of those will have more than one findings (e.g. they will contain either two, three, or more findings).

We can do the same calculus if you want more than two findings, up to the chances of fidning the entire N findings (hint: it's not zero chances, because the option exists, hence the probability for it also exists, which makes it a certain event if you do a shitload of tries).

Why don't you write that letter to Princeton, Stanford, etc?

1st grade fact: A uniform distribution only means that the target is equally distributed, not that all stopping criteria perform equally.

Totally wrong. Unless, of course, you're writing your own definitions.

https://ecampusontario.pressbooks.pub/sccstatistics/chapter/the-uniform-distribution/
"The uniform distribution is a continuous probability distribution and is concerned with events that are equally likely to occur"

https://web.stanford.edu/class/archive/cs/cs109/cs109.1218/files/student_drive/3.5.pdf
"In the this lecture we will continue to expand our zoo of discrete random variables. The next one we will
discuss is the uniform random variable. This models situations where the probability of each value in the
range is equally likely, like the roll of a fair die."

LOL, each stopping criterion changes the probability of success within the block, even with a uniform distribution.

No, it does not at all. You are in a total error and just confuse people with your made-up statements of badly interpreted basic math.

Pruning by 3 hex prefix: success ≈ 63.2%
Stopping at a random point: success ≈ 50%

What you're pruning, the 63%, includes AT LEAST ONE orccurences, not "JUST ONE" occurrence.

So, what you're skipping, is basically either to find another hit, or maybe two, or maybe three, or maybe a shitload of them. You totally ignore this. It simply compensates back over time, because the hits you've missed, they will show up as non-hits later on.

Finding ≥ 2 prefix collisions in 4096 keys is very rare; if it were frequent, the hash function would be compromised (this doesn't mean there can't be cases where it happens, but the point is that for what the prefix lookup requires, it works).

Please stop lying. It's exactly 26.42% likely to find >= 2 hits of a 12-bit prefix in a 4096-bits set.

This case is a subset of the 63% of finding >=1 hits. If you're good at arithmetic, you'll notice that the probability of finding just A SINGLE HIT is thus 36%.

Which is exactly the same as the chance of not finding a hit. Identical chances. I guess why that happens? Maybe because the average will be 1, but it only does that because there are those 26% other cases, that help averaging out everything? Geeeeeez, math in action!

Missing the target due to premature collision occurs in the remaining ~36.8%, just as the script predicts. I don't understand why you flatly deny this fact.

Instead of continuing to cry or hesitate, accept it.

What you don't understand is basic maths. No one's crying here, I'm just keeping my promise: that every time you bring up this prefix non-sense here, I'll bring up the Scooby Doo method.

For those new: the Scooby Doo method is an exceptional breakthrough, that extends and improves on the prefix theory, by simply removing the need to check for a prefix.

Simply skipping ahead by a chance of 1/4096, instead of doing a prefix check, yields identical results. Because this guy mcdouglasx is a fraud, and I can't understand why he's pushing total bullshit ahead over and over again, in total disregard of mathematical evidence. It seems all he wants is to get some credits, judging by his actions.

Come on, man, you're taking all the fun out of mixing so much nonsense into a single post.

The 3-hex filter is 1/4096 in any space. It doesn't matter if the hash has 40 digits, the probability of matching the first 3 is always the same.

Limiting the range doesn't "fix" the math: the uniformity remains within that subspace, and the formula applies the same.

Going from 4096 to 2**256 only changes the scale. The exponential form is the same; the relative result remains the same.

kgtimes, you won't respond to this guy's statements, or you'll apply the "the enemies of my enemies are my friends" rule Grin.

I'm gonna respond to you by saying that you have it wrong, and you can't simply extend these numbers the way you're trying to do, because this is not how a uniform distribution works.

For example, it's not the same thing to compute probability of success in a single 8192-bit range, versus 2 4096-bit ranges. So your math is wrong by definition, since the extrapolation you made has no corelation to a larger search space.

Your analogy with dice tells me you still don't understand prefix searching. No, that's not what I'm saying. If you focused on understanding more and hating less, you would easily understand what the probabilistic prefix search method is based on. The fact that a six appears on the fifth roll doesn't mean that another 6 is less likely on the sixth; they are independent events. But it is true that if they tell you to roll a die 6 times, and the second time you got a 6, it's normal for you to bet that there won't be another 6 in the next 4 events. Although it could happen, statistically it doesn't change the probability of 1/6.

Dude, seriously, I'm cracking up. You're basically saying that, if 6 is rolled after 2 rolls, the game should stop, since we're at 63% chances in 4 more rolls, so why bother doing them, instead... change the dices.

When should those 4 rolls be skipped? You're saying they should never happen at all.

Off the grid, training pigeons to broadcast signed messages.
mahmood1356
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July 04, 2025, 09:23:07 AM
 #10826

I have a clue to solve one of the biggest puzzles in the world! But I NEED to get in touch with the owner of the address: "1HLoD9E4SDFFPDiYfNYnkBLQ85Y51J3Zb1" Please, if anyone knows who it is, or can find the person, the owner of the address will have a huge reward, and whoever finds this person too, I need to talk to him/her.. Email me: vagner.constantino@hotmail.com I'm not rich, in fact I'm quite the opposite, but after years of research, I got an absurd clue in a development that involves FFT and interpretation of Secp256k1 in the sound domain. Please help me find this person! My English is pretty bad, but I can speak through messages and understand a little of the spoken language: +55(21)97750-9824


There is an address that belongs to Satoshi Nakamoto what do you do with it Huh
bibilgin
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July 04, 2025, 11:48:59 AM
 #10827

@MrGPBit

I wrote several times that this person is unreliable. I gave him another chance. But he has shown himself unreliable again.

Right now, he wants to come to our group all the time. By creating fake accounts.
He has no place in our group and is on the list of unreliable people.

https://ibb.co/zVZ1Dhjx
https://i.ibb.co/VYTd5Wr9/Ekran-Al-nt-s.png
mahmood1356
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July 04, 2025, 12:38:56 PM
 #10828

@MrGPBit

I wrote several times that this person is unreliable. I gave him another chance. But he has shown himself unreliable again.

Right now, he wants to come to our group all the time. By creating fake accounts.
He has no place in our group and is on the list of unreliable people.

https://ibb.co/zVZ1Dhjx
https://i.ibb.co/VYTd5Wr9/Ekran-Al-nt-s.png
I also agree with your opinion. That user "@MrGPBit"
 In the chat before me, I also asked the keys I had given and provided me, and now I wrote to me the philosopher wandering the keys !!! This means ridiculing the rest of the users, I only provided these to the progress of users' analysis to get the solution, and nothing else,
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July 04, 2025, 12:53:44 PM
 #10829

Quote
I also agree with your opinion. That user "@MrGPBit"
 In the chat before me, I also asked the keys I had given and provided me, and now I wrote to me the philosopher wandering the keys !!! This means ridiculing the rest of the users, I only provided these to the progress of users' analysis to get the solution, and nothing else,

@mahmood1356
These prefixes belong
Wandering Philosopher
he published it for everyone

His statement

I haven't searched for 71 in a few weeks, and I am not sure I will get back to searching for it. I'm working on a bigger project and as all of us know, there are only so many minutes in a day lol. But I do have these 48+ bit h160 matches that maybe someone can find useful and maybe lead them to the target address. I am sharing because at the moment, they are of no value to me. Hopefully they will be for someone. Enjoy. Keep hunting. Shooters shoot!
kTimesG
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July 04, 2025, 01:16:23 PM
 #10830

Your analogy with dice tells me you still don't understand prefix searching. No, that's not what I'm saying. If you focused on understanding more and hating less, you would easily understand what the probabilistic prefix search method is based on. The fact that a six appears on the fifth roll doesn't mean that another 6 is less likely on the sixth; they are independent events. But it is true that if they tell you to roll a die 6 times, and the second time you got a 6, it's normal for you to bet that there won't be another 6 in the next 4 events. Although it could happen, statistically it doesn't change the probability of 1/6.

And just to show for the millionth time that you have no clue on how to actually compute probabilities, I gave you some benefit of the doubt and implemented your bet idea.

The math is already against you on it, because there is a 51.8% chance that, if you get a 6 on the second roll, you will get another 6 during the next 4 rolls. So it's a losing bet, according to the probabilistic computation that you so much fail to compute. But let's screw the math, and implement the game!

Code:
import os


def roll():
    return 1 + int.from_bytes(os.urandom(4)) % 6


funds = 1000
num_bets = 0
num_wins = 0
num_loses = 0

while funds > 0:
    # roll the first dice
    value = roll()
    if value == 6:
        # don't bet if we got 6 in the first roll
        continue

    # second roll
    value = roll()
    if value == 6:
        # play the bet
        num_bets += 1
        investment = 1
        won = True

        # if we have another 6 in the next 4 rolls, we lose
        for _ in range(4):
            if roll() == 6:
                won = False
                break

        if won:
            funds += investment
            num_wins += 1
        else:
            funds -= investment
            num_loses += 1

        print(
            f'Funds after {num_bets} bets: {funds}'
            f' wins: {num_wins} ({num_wins/num_bets:%})'
            f' loses: {num_loses} ({num_loses/num_bets:%})'
        )

And let's now play it!

Code:
...
Funds after 27053 bets: 3 wins: 13028 (48.157321%) loses: 14025 (51.842679%)
Funds after 27054 bets: 2 wins: 13028 (48.155541%) loses: 14026 (51.844459%)
Funds after 27055 bets: 1 wins: 13028 (48.153761%) loses: 14027 (51.846239%)
Funds after 27056 bets: 0 wins: 13028 (48.151981%) loses: 14028 (51.848019%)


OUCH WE WENT BROKE. And we only won 48.15% percent of the time.

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mcdouglasx
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July 04, 2025, 02:57:48 PM
 #10831

snip

By trying to be right, you're being silly. Your craps simulation is correct for that specific game, but it doesn't model prefix pruning. With prefixes, we abort at the first false positive without betting on future events. The probability of success is 63.2%, as my simulations demonstrate. You still fail to distinguish between sequential processes with aborts (prefixes) and conditional bets (your dice).

You inadvertently demonstrate that when you change the rules, the probability changes.

This validates my claim that "Every stopping criterion changes the probability of success."

Prefix pruning: 63.2%

Random stopping: 50%

Your craps bet: 48.2%

When you want to discuss the actual method instead of incorrect analogies, I'll be here.

It's as simple as that, otherwise it simply wouldn't be worth debating with you.
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July 04, 2025, 03:18:46 PM
Last edit: July 04, 2025, 03:32:22 PM by kTimesG
 #10832

By trying to be right, you're being silly. Your craps simulation is correct for that specific game, but it doesn't model prefix pruning. With prefixes, we abort at the first false positive without betting on future events. The probability of success is 63.2%, as my simulations demonstrate. You still fail to distinguish between sequential processes with aborts (prefixes) and conditional bets (your dice).

You inadvertently demonstrate that when you change the rules, the probability changes.

This validates my claim that "Every stopping criterion changes the probability of success."

Prefix pruning: 63.2%

Random stopping: 50%

Your craps bet: 48.2%

Dude, my craps bet (which is actually yours) is exactly what you described as "natural to bet that 6 doesn't appear again in 4 rolls". So if there's anything crappy about it, it was your original statement, which was proven to be false. If you happen to find something's wrong with it, please let me know and I'm happy to refactor it according to your conditionals or whatever. But the results will be identical, since it's simply empirical proof that in whatever 4 rolls (sequential, skipped, timed out and resumed, changing the dice, etc etc etc), any value has a 51.8% chances of showing up at least once. Conditionals are irrelevant, just like skipping is irrelevant. I think you should be the one to go back to the drawing board here.

If you have some other statement about something, or you discover what's wrong with the simulations (not flakes of snow) let me know. Congrats on discovering and demonstrating that there's a 63% chance of success to hit X at least once, when p=1/N, in N tries, btw. No one really bothered to do the math on that one. You're definitely the first.

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mcdouglasx
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July 04, 2025, 03:42:52 PM
 #10833

snip

I'm not interested in falling for your analogies. If you want to refute me, tell me what's wrong with my original script. Otherwise, you'll be endlessly beating around the bush to divert attention—attention you, of course, think you deserve. Your need for prominence is undoubtedly a symptom of a mental illness. I recommend you see a doctor.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1306983.msg65545733#msg65545733


edit:

I meanwhile apply this magic wand, to disappear from my sight.



kTimesG
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July 04, 2025, 04:06:47 PM
 #10834

The best argument a Denialist can ever use is the one that makes sure they never get into direct contact with the evidence that goes against what they believe in.

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newsecurity1986
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July 04, 2025, 04:52:56 PM
 #10835

Congrats on discovering and demonstrating that there's a 63% chance of success to hit X at least once, when p=1/N, in N tries, btw. No one really bothered to do the math on that one. You're definitely the first.

So then, if you're saying the prefix method is mathematically sound, right? Why are you giving it shit?
mcdouglasx
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July 04, 2025, 05:04:01 PM
 #10836

Congrats on discovering and demonstrating that there's a 63% chance of success to hit X at least once, when p=1/N, in N tries, btw. No one really bothered to do the math on that one. You're definitely the first.

So then, if you're saying the prefix method is mathematically sound, right? Why are you giving it shit?

Because some people have an outsized ego, a need for attention, and any idea that doesn't come from them should simply be crushed no matter what.

The least they care about is math; all they care about is their need to stand out. They have multiple accounts for this. I don't know what they gain. I don't even look for puzzles, haha, and it's not like we're going to be rewarded here for sharing ideas.

That's why I apply the rule: I share ideas, I don't criticize anyone's ideas, I debate a bit with some haters for fun, and when I get bored, I put them back in the trunk and leave.
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July 04, 2025, 05:17:38 PM
 #10837

Congrats on discovering and demonstrating that there's a 63% chance of success to hit X at least once, when p=1/N, in N tries, btw. No one really bothered to do the math on that one. You're definitely the first.

So then, if you're saying the prefix method is mathematically sound, right? Why are you giving it shit?

N balls in an urn. one is blue, the rest are red.
Extract one ball, if it's blue = success. If it's red: failure.
Put the ball back in the urn.

This gives you an exact 1:1 analogy with either searching for an H160 full hash, or whatever prefix size of it you desire. You can use any other classification criteria as you see fit, the analogy doesn't change.

p = 1/n
trials = n

Probability of failure per extraction: (n-1)/n = 1 - 1/n

Total probability of failure over N extractions: (1 - 1/n) ** n

Probability of success to get the blue ball at least once over N extractions:

p_success = 1 - probability_failure = 1 - (1 - 1/n)**n

This function converges towards 1 - 1/e = 63.212...% as N goes to infinity. It's a very exact number to calculate.

Now: what in the freaking world changes after you put the extracted ball back in the urn?

Answer: NOTHING. That's why the prefix theory is total bullshit, and is one of the reasons this thread is junk science, which I'm retreating from. Feel free to go and pat mcdouglasx, he needs a hug.

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newsecurity1986
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July 04, 2025, 05:41:45 PM
 #10838

Congrats on discovering and demonstrating that there's a 63% chance of success to hit X at least once, when p=1/N, in N tries, btw. No one really bothered to do the math on that one. You're definitely the first.

So then, if you're saying the prefix method is mathematically sound, right? Why are you giving it shit?

N balls in an urn. one is blue, the rest are red.
Extract one ball, if it's blue = success. If it's red: failure.
Put the ball back in the urn.

This gives you an exact 1:1 analogy with either searching for an H160 full hash, or whatever prefix size of it you desire. You can use any other classification criteria as you see fit, the analogy doesn't change.

p = 1/n
trials = n

Probability of failure per extraction: (n-1)/n = 1 - 1/n

Total probability of failure over N extractions: (1 - 1/n) ** n

Probability of success to get the blue ball at least once over N extractions:

p_success = 1 - probability_failure = 1 - (1 - 1/n)**n

This function converges towards 1 - 1/e = 63.212...% as N goes to infinity. It's a very exact number to calculate.

Now: what in the freaking world changes after you put the extracted ball back in the urn?

Answer: NOTHING. That's why the prefix theory is total bullshit, and is one of the reasons this thread is junk science, which I'm retreating from. Feel free to go and pat mcdouglasx, he needs a hug.

Listen mate, your fancy urn model with ball replacement shares that same 63% probability on paper, yeah, we all know 1 - 1/e ≈ 0.6321. But quit pretending it's the real deal for crypto hunting. Your abstract math misses three massive practical points:

Keys ain't balls:
Crypto keys are unique and never reused,  no "putting back" like your urn nonsense.

Real-world:
Prefix search actually saves work by bailing early when collisions happen. Your urn keeps uselessly drawing balls forever.

Physical constraints matter:
The prefix search exploit actual hardware behavior (sequential scanning + early termination) to boost efficiency. Your model just jerks off in theory land.

The results prove it works in practice 63% success rates don't lie. You're dodging the actual method to wank over abstract models that physically don't function like real crypto searches. Just 'cause the numbers match doesn't make your urn relevant. Stop confusing textbook toys with engine-level optimization.
kTimesG
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July 04, 2025, 05:58:53 PM
 #10839

Keys ain't balls:
Crypto keys are unique and never reused,  no "putting back" like your urn nonsense.

Balls are not the keys, they are the hashes. The keys are irrelevant here. They might as well be random data that gets hashed. This doesn't change in any way any probabilities whatsoever.

Real-world:
Prefix search actually saves work by bailing early when collisions happen. Your urn keeps uselessly drawing balls forever.

No, no. The urn does the same bailing just as the prefix search: extractions are skipped once a blue ball comes out. This step is very important, sorry that I forgot to mention it. So, please, once a blue ball comes out, please skip the next few extractions. Then please proceed with the next extraction. I know, it sounds like a no-op, but hey, that's identical to skipping keys.

Physical constraints matter:
The prefix search exploit actual hardware behavior (sequential scanning + early termination) to boost efficiency. Your model just jerks off in theory land.

My bad, I totally forgot how much that matters when doing the probability calculations. It definitely impacts the next ball to come out. IMHO I was thinking it's exactly the other way around: not skipping keys helps because you simply compute the next key, instead of a hard reset. My bad again.

Have fun!

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July 04, 2025, 06:03:50 PM
 #10840


N balls in an urn. one is blue, the rest are red.
Extract one ball, if it's blue = success. If it's red: failure.
Put the ball back in the urn.


Did you know that if you're colorblind, you might actually be able to find the blue ball more easily than someone who can see colors? Let me teach you a trick: ask someone to assign a number to each ball, then apply a hash function to each number, and stick a label with the hash on the ball (the hash function must not be rigged).

Then, ask that person to give you the hash of the red ball, the winning one! Of course, since you're colorblind, you can't see colors, you can only read the hashes, but now you know which one is the winner.

At that point, to find the blue ball, you divide the N balls into blocks. When you find a hash in a block that starts with the same first X bits as the winning one's hash, you discard that whole block, because that prefix was already used in the block, and it's very unlikely that another ball in the same block would share it, unless the hash function is rigged.

With this method, you'll find the blue ball faster, thanks to uniform distribution, 1st grade math, and probabilistic search. But it works only if you’re not checking all the balls, because if you do that, then you don't gain any statistical advantage. And it only works if you're colorblind and can use hash functions and prefixes, if you can see colors, then you're stuck with the classic, old, and outdated probabilities of a uniform distribution.
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