Yet another analyst :)

[cypherdoc]

So I should complaint mathematics for MagicalTux not fixing bugs and has 1-2-3-4 months delays in withdrawals?

no.  but what he does won't jeopardize the mathematics/security behind Bitcoin; and therein lies the reason why most of us have invested in Bitcoin.  gox could go under tomorrow and it wouldn't affect the security of my Bitcoin.  yes, the market would knock the price down as it deals with the "perception" of reduced liquidity.  but eventually another exchange would replace gox and route around the problem.

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[cypherdoc]

Bitcoin is the monetary tool around which a business economy is built.  mathematics is what backs the money's security and eliminates the need for an organizational overseer composed of men.

the business economy that grows up around Bitcoin may or may not need a Better Business Bureau as you propose.  The Market will sort that out by itself.

[arepo]

bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

[ElectricMucus]

There may not be increased utility but value promise. Mainstream sites report regularly on developments, that has not been the case half a year ago.

[smoothie]

bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

+1

[lebing]

Overpriced? 

Check out the market cap numbers, the signups bitpay is now doing post WP (which is increasing adoption widely btw) and you will find that the real speculators havent even begun to start gnawing at it yet. We are seeing slow, sustainable growth based and its not for nothing. The tide is turning and the mainstream is starting in. 2 years from people will look back at the WP announcement as the turning point for the currency. It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

[smoothie]

Overpriced? 

Check out the market cap numbers, the signups bitpay is now doing post WP (which is increasing adoption widely btw) and you will find that the real speculators havent even begun to start gnawing at it yet. We are seeing slow, sustainable growth based and its not for nothing. The tide is turning and the mainstream is starting in. 2 years from people will look back at the WP announcement as the turning point for the currency. It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

Then you should be buying BTC with everything you got. Sell everything and buy BTC. Live on the streets because you will use your rent money to but BTC before it goes to the MOON. Do it! lol 

[arepo]

It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

so you're saying that that single business venture is worth more than a doubling of value for every single one of 10 million coins?

[Endgame]

The WordPress announcement is one of those things that will have an ongoing positive impact on bitcoin adoption. Its the flow on effect on other websites that's important, rather than WordPress by itself. While its difficult to say exactly how big an impact it will end up having, we know that it will be considerable. Just as the EFF's stance towards bitcoin has an ongoing negative impact, so too does WordPress's stance have an ongoing positive impact. A doubling of value is not out of the question.

[ElectricMucus]

There was a brief chance of a hype from the wordpress thing, but that chance is already missed. The effect you are all talking about isn't happening, for once wordpress accepts bitpay, not bitcoin. Accepting bitpay payment is not equivalent to accepting bitcoin. Second, wordpress isn't representative of anything.

Again there is a positive development but that regards that high-traffic sites report on things like wordpress & bitpay. But those development in their own don't really mean anything - it's not like wordpress has written it onto their flag as a commitment to bitcoin, they could leave any time. Real positive, not speculative developments are happening, but those are something else - it's random sites on the web accepting bitcoin donations to pay for hosting directly. I've seen that slowly spreading, and that my friend is the true potential of bitcoin.
Not some hyped announcement by a payment processor" just there to enable cronies leveraged market manipulation. (You guesssed it - I don't like bitpay)

[lucif]

I'll just leave it here. h/Sma200 is a big asteriod, trendline is a planet and price is a small pieces of that flying around asteriod.

[adamstgBit]

Overpriced? 

Check out the market cap numbers, the signups bitpay is now doing post WP (which is increasing adoption widely btw) and you will find that the real speculators havent even begun to start gnawing at it yet. We are seeing slow, sustainable growth based and its not for nothing. The tide is turning and the mainstream is starting in. 2 years from people will look back at the WP announcement as the turning point for the currency. It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

Then you should be buying BTC with everything you got. Sell everything and buy BTC. Live on the streets because you will use your rent money to but BTC before it goes to the MOON. Do it! lol 

lol thats just crazy

everyone who's into bitcoin should only keep what they can afford to lose in bitcoin

sure bitcoins potential is extreme but, the risk is equally extreme

[lebing]

It sets a precedent which is not even close to priced in yet.

so you're saying that that single business venture is worth more than a doubling of value for every single one of 10 million coins?

I am continually amazed at all of the smart people around here who can't see the larger picture.

Yes, this "single business venture" by the 4th largest site on the internet sets a (legal & commercial) precedent which allows others to easily follow in their footsteps. None of the big guys wanted to go first, but now that someone has its much easier to convince the CFO's in other companies to follow suit. And they are. Bitpay had signed up close to 1000 subscribers before the announcement (in total) and they now have over 2000 and another 1000 requests coming in per month. THIS is the metric people need to be paying attention to.

[lucif]

My dear, bitpay is a proxy payment processor. When someone purchase something via bitpay, price go down as this amount immediately sold on market. Serious business with current Bitcoin being in beta? Oh plllllzzzz....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niaMCTPDNeo

[lucif]

Besides, how there bitpay going with security? I'll ask familiar people to test Will publish report here if I'll have a time.

[lebing]

Accepting bitpay payment is not equivalent to accepting bitcoin.

True, but they are leveraging the power of bitcoin through the possibility of international payments (without chargebacks). It's not ideal, but it is the first step and still an enormous marketing vehicle for bitcoin adoption.

Second, wordpress isn't representative of anything.

Yes, actually it is. It's a flag in the ground to say hey, we are "risking it", using this payment method. This is an enormous step. Reddit isnt far behind I imagine and that will also have a big impact.

I disagree on the EFF front however. Bitcoin IS still in a legal grey area (officially) and in order to ensure they stay fighting the good fight (and that their enemies dont have any reason at all to come after them), they need to stay away until its set. Its only egg on the face of bitcoin if you dont understand this point.

[keewee]

My dear, bitpay is a proxy payment processor. When someone purchase something via bitpay, price go down as this amount immediately sold on market. Serious business with current Bitcoin being in beta? Oh plllllzzzz....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niaMCTPDNeo

But those bitcoins would have been bought on the market previously which would have pushed the price up, so it's swings and roundabouts if you're just considering the market price. If you account for the increase in new users then it's probably net positive

[lebing]

My dear, bitpay is a proxy payment processor. When someone purchase something via bitpay, price go down as this amount immediately sold on market. Serious business with current Bitcoin being in beta? Oh plllllzzzz....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niaMCTPDNeo

[lucif]

But those bitcoins would have been bought on the market previously which would have pushed the price up, so it's swings and roundabouts if you're just considering the market price. If you account for the increase in new users then it's probably net positive

Having such complex technology like Bitcoin for understand and use - I doubt someone new will go and buy it.

I better would bet that existing bitcoin holders will spend their coins which would cause price drop.

[lucif]

So the bitpay turnover growing will likely send price down.

It cant send price up, coz coins not holding. Its just a proxy. For money laundering.