Yet another analyst :)

[N12]

Don't be bothered by TA skeptics and always bullish people, this is a rich and extensive analysis considering it's free. Keep it up.

[1714674528]

1714674528

[lucif]

d/SMA20 (aka middle-BB) and previous higher high tanking at around 1310. This is the key level for futher price fate.

[cypherdoc]

so i go to sleep and the price is @ 13.09.

i wake up to find this thread filled with a bunch of crap about me by an amateur analyst who refuses to accept a refund to my newsletter.

i see a few bears high fiving it; i see waveaddict and lucif congratulating each other.

and yet, as i wake up the price is HIGHER by +1.37%.

in a serious effort to control myself, i'll only leave this:   LOL!

[Luno]

lucif is also doing this thread in Russian. There are less critiques over there.

[cypherdoc]

so we know that lucif's target is 5.  i assume since he follows waveaddict that that's his target as well. 

i say we get to 15 before we get to 5.  we'll see who's right.

[lucif]

so i go to sleep and the price is @ 13.09.

i wake up to find this thread filled with a bunch of crap about me by an amateur analyst who refuses to accept a refund to my newsletter.

i see a few bears high fiving it; i see waveaddict and lucif congratulating each other.

and yet, as i wake up the price is HIGHER by +1.37%.

in a serious effort to control myself, i'll only leave this:   LOL!

Hey, easy, easy. Its just a game between people.

Every man has a right to the own oppinion, no? Your newsletters gives me some useful info, as long as others newsletters. I find it useful for asked price, so I refuse to refund.

In this thread I just wanted to remind everyone that market is under bulls overheat. This fact I described in three pages with detailed comments. And the reaction shows that I was right. But game continues.

[cypherdoc]

The rise on the 7'th from 12.50 to 13.50 did you see that coming? I didn't but i've got a 1/3 of it anyway.

he didn't answer you b/c obviously no he did not.  he also missed the move from just under $10 to now.  that amounted to a 37% move.  who else missed?  i did not.

[lucif]

so we know that lucif's target is 5.  i assume since he follows waveaddict that that's his target as well. 

i say we get to 15 before we get to 5.  we'll see who's right.

Latest WA updates dont have target 5. My target is textbook from unconfirmed forming figure. It is yet needs confirmation. I just say that we are tracing something big. Pennant is just my oppinion.

I didn't copypasted any information from WA. I do have my own brain.

[lucif]

lucif is also doing this thread in Russian. There are less critiques over there.

Russian traders subforum almost doesn't have expirenced traders. One or two. So most people even dont reailize what I am talking about. Those lines, trends, MA's - just chineese book there. So nobody gives a fuck. Everybody silent.

[Luno]

Well lucif, I appreciate you effort and I'm not competent in TA or have any serious trading experience. But there are several things that worries me about your analysis: Big walls, compared to volume, are being moved to reach specific targets. I don't claim it's you. You can be pulled around as others relying on advanced analysis. All kinds of tricks are tried on this small market, one after the other and some percent of the market fall for it every time. What we are seeing in the big picture is accumulation of Bitcoins from the many to the few. Do anyone remember the two 250.000BTC buys at $5? They have not chickened out yet!

I hope you are hedged you can never know what is real.

[lucif]

I dont know what is real. I am not right, cypher is not right, and everybody is not right. Market is only right.

But I know what is unreal. It is someones' predictions disclosed to limited number of big players.

Satan is rised up in me and gived that info for big animal sacrifice.

[Luno]

Spend some time last spring watching transactions in and out of Gox 24/7. There was a beautiful correlation between big inflows and big walls, and they were coordinated. wallets in Germany, France UK and Spain worked together to fund the walls. I was not able to figure out if sell outs were coordinated as there were not big deposits before drops, but they could be.

I decided that I could not figure out the market under such conditions. my strategy since have been hedging with weight on the short side, which works but doesn't make you rich over night.

I don't claim that the market is gamed now, or that the same operators are playing us, and I'm sure the same thing is happening in real life markets, which we can't see as they have no blockchain.info.

[lucif]

I beleive the Market is the whole complex system, even creature.

Every system has its own rulez. For example, huge bearish divergence lead to huge selloff unless someone will not put a lot of liquidity on market. But why do someone do this against wave? If he clever man, he will follow the wave and make money. If he not, he will walk against wave and loose money.

Big players accumulating big money only because they know how accumulate big money. And I doubt this knowledge includes a point "Walk against wave".

So the waves are primary. They are forming by many thousands of people brains together.

And TI predicts such waves. If you ignore TI - you may loose.

[Luno]

Right lucif thats true, but you can't judge the size of the market to know when the move is big. Serious traders don't have their orders laying all over the book. So a decent sized move down, compared to the visible orders, might be nothing compared to what a big buyer is hiding on the bid side.

[lucif]

Market is complex system consists of many-many persons and forms super-person. Some people puts emotions there, some people gets them out.

Single person can not be a market. Single person's impact can accelerate or slowdown the waves depending of persons internal power. But overall wave direction is decided by whole market.

I dont beleive in Manipulator.

TA predicting whole system status and internal dynamics.

[Luno]

If TA can judge the ratios of different minded traders and their combined influence from the figures alone, it is truly interesting. I will look into it, might even take a class course on it if it works.

Thanks for explaining lucif. (I won't sacrifice a chicken, even if it helps)

[smoothie]

so i go to sleep and the price is @ 13.09.

i wake up to find this thread filled with a bunch of crap about me by an amateur analyst who refuses to accept a refund to my newsletter.

i see a few bears high fiving it; i see waveaddict and lucif congratulating each other.

and yet, as i wake up the price is HIGHER by +1.37%.

in a serious effort to control myself, i'll only leave this:   LOL!

Yes "LOL" is in order. Don't speak too soon though.....LOL!

[smoothie]

The rise on the 7'th from 12.50 to 13.50 did you see that coming? I didn't but i've got a 1/3 of it anyway.

he didn't answer you b/c obviously no he did not.  he also missed the move from just under $10 to now.  that amounted to a 37% move.  who else missed?  i did not.

Less talking about the past and more talking about the future eh?

Less "look at when I am right" and more "look at when i was wrong".

 

[smoothie]

@ Cypher,

No one said we were controlling the price. The fact that you HAVE TO acknowledge that the price is up "1.xx%" shows how much of a bull you are.

When we go sub $10 what will you say then? "Look price is up 100% since last May"

All I can say is LOL!! 

[cypherdoc]

Every man has a right to the own oppinion, no? Your newsletters gives me some useful info, as long as others newsletters. I find it useful for asked price, so I refuse to refund.

of course you do.  but once you started criticizing my analytical methods you opened yourself up to the same criticism, no?  but with your criticism, don't you think you sound a little hypocritical refusing a refund from me?

My bet: huge bearish pennant with textbook target around $5

and what's this about changing your target now?  you posted this target just yesterday.  you criticize me for not posting targets and i told you why:  the trend is your friend and stick with it.  trend following is a highly regarded form of TA just like wave theory, cycle theory, etc.  so why do you criticize me for using it?  i would argue by changing your targets within only one day is actually counterproductive.  it shows you have no conviction in your analysis.  what is the new target btw?  and what good is a moving target? 

by trying to trade every wave i submit that you are encouraging overtrading.  this will wipe your account very quickly in fees.  the more sophisticated investors on this forum understand the value of not doing that.  they are patient and understand it is futile to try and trade every wave.

i would also argue that by drawing so many lines, squiggles, fibs and pointing to "strong" or "weak" this or that support/resistance lines, you are hedging.  this allows you to point to whichever scenario that fits a subsequent market movement and say "see, i predicted that".  i see this all the time in different newsletters and it bugs me.

my newsletter otoh is a black and white analysis of where i think the market is going in the intermediate to long term timeframes.  i do not hedge my recommendations so of course i will look wrong in the short term as the waves go up and down but generally trend in the way i think.  i also try to keep it simple for readers although i do perform more extensive analyses underneath.  yes, its either BUY or SELL.  i've shown you in screenshots how i will hold positions for 7 mo at a time.  it works for me.