Yet another analyst :)

[lucif]

I must admit that volume divergences are not actual here because volume in USD shows strong rise confirmation

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90ztgSza1gSMAzm1g10za2gSMAzm2g20zxzi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gADXzi4gSStochzvzcv

Meaning Monday might be as epic as everyone here is hoping?

No, i mean volume indicator must be in USD in current conditions.

[Jaques]

People, please use other exchanges than mtgox! Arbitrage bots will handle your liquidity demands! Just put bid/ask 1-3% higher/lower gox price and they will eat your wall (Instead of market order).

This is very dangerous situation. Gox may break anytime coz of this financial/web load.

+10


gox for trading is a bad joke

[Bimmerhead]

People, please use other exchanges than mtgox! Arbitrage bots will handle your liquidity demands! Just put bid/ask 1-3% higher/lower gox price and they will eat your wall (Instead of market order).

This is very dangerous situation. Gox may break anytime coz of this financial/web load.

Indeed, I wish more Canadians were using CAVirtex.  Pretty thin order book supporting that $173.50 current price.

[lucif]

Running fine so far.

Count candidate #1. I think we dealing with [5] extension according to subwave structure and duration.

[lucif]

Result

Break Hourly close below or above of green lines would hint the futher accelerating short term direction

[And1]

And how to recognize exit?

[lucif]

And how to recognize exit?

top secret of each trader

[myself]

And how to recognize exit?

look at volume and ATR

[And1]

hehe OK.

[lucif]

I consider everything above V/[5]/3 is highly unstable, unpredictable and highly risky move. The V may have an sub-extension again, but this is really dangerous. Unless hourly sma 50 broken this count is valid.

Count candidate #1. I think we dealing with [5] extension according to subwave structure and duration.

[lucif]

Otherwise, if hourly sma 50 broken,

[zby]

There is evidently new money flowing.  The bids are filling quickly after a sell-off.

There is another wedge forming now - will that be invalidated as the previous ones?

[lucif]

There is evidently new money flowing.  The bids are filling quickly after a sell-off.

There is another wedge forming now - will that be invalidated as the previous ones?

Bids owners may be surprised soon that this 2-billion bubble lays on two single points of failure: mtgox and bitpay. Big merchants dont accept Bitcoin, they accept Bitpay, who hedges at mtgox. If something will go wrong with either mtgox or bitpay, goods and services turnover will just disappear in >90% volume, as merchants who accept natural Bitcoin are paralyzed now due to volatility. And will stay paralyzed for a long period of time.

However lets eat popcorn.

[molecular]

All of the above, the conditions needed to falsify the prediction, the price movements under different scenarios, actually the meandering part is what I would hope to happen:the price would be stable enough for the business to develop and high enough to not be easily manipulated, I am not as eager to retire as many others here.

Allow me to add my BTC 0.02 from a fundamental perspective:

I think what will happen (in a large scale) is what always happens in short term scale: shoot up, correct down to about 60% of the move, then stabilize yet above that low at whatever fiboncacci says is a nice value between 60% and 100% of original move. This would currently (if this was the top) mean well above $100. Maybe $130.

I do not think this is the top at all, tough. Reason: people are still flocking in like migratory birds. The bulk of the population still hasn't been tapped, they're standing on the sidelines waiting for things to cool off, which they will. Then they will buy, fuelling another mid-/short-term hop up. This will continue until all birds have returned to homeland for the time being. Then they will settle down, take a shit and start to eat berries and fruit. There is no indication this is already the case. Bitcoin spring has just started to cast the first rays of sun on the starved wildlife.

Will that top (for the next years) be 225, 450, 2789 or 9999? I don't know... I'm tending to think either 450 or 2789 makes the most sense.

[molecular]

There is evidently new money flowing.  The bids are filling quickly after a sell-off.

There is another wedge forming now - will that be invalidated as the previous ones?

Bids owners may be surprised soon that this 2-billion bubble lays on two single points of failure: mtgox and bitpay. Big merchants dont accept Bitcoin, they accept Bitpay, who hedges at mtgox. If something will go wrong with either mtgox or bitpay, goods and services turnover will just disappear in >90% volume, as merchants who accept natural Bitcoin are paralyzed now due to volatility. And will stay paralyzed for a long period of time.

However lets eat popcorn.

the mtgox centralization is a problem is a serious one. However there are other functioning active exchanges. For example bitcoin.de in SEPA zone. It's consistently trading higher than mtgoxEUR and mtgoxUSD on rallys. mtGox fail would be huge hit for bitcoin in mid-term, no doubt, but "long period" can mean 3 weeks in bitcoin world.

[myself]

if this bubble pops and we get to single digits it will become hilarious

[essem]

I guess vendors and clients (silkroad) who accept REAL bitcoin (not Bitpay) don't like this bubble and we have ddos everywhere

This bubble paralyses real bitcoin economy.

Silkroad has a hedging option when money is placed in escrow. Some vendors don't use it though, so let's hope they remember the money they have made and not what they will lose when the bubble bursts and they decide to not fulfill orders at a loss

[lebing]

The bears are not dead... 

[lucif]

Silkroad has a hedging option when money is placed in escrow. Some vendors don't use it though, so let's hope they remember the money they have made and not what they will lose when the bubble bursts and they decide to not fulfill orders at a loss

Tell me, why should I buy something for 1BTC and wait two weeks delivery, when after two weeks it will probably cost 0.5BTC?

[HappyBitCoinUser]

Because it could cost 2.0 instead of 0.5 BTC.

Would be nice if we could tell the future, then we'd all be millionaires